格隆汇10月8日｜国际铜研究组织：预计2025年全球铜矿产量将增长1.4%，而2026年预计将实现2.3%的 增长。预计2025年全球精炼铜产量将增长约3.4%，2026年增长0.9%。预计2025年全球精炼铜表观消费 量将增长约3%，2026年增长2.1%。2025年全球精炼铜供需预测显示将出现约17.8万吨的供应盈余，而 2026年则预计出现15万吨的供应短缺。 ...

摩根士丹利将江西铜业A股评级上调至超配，目标价44元人民币。 ...

Group 1 - Recent surge in international copper prices driven by supply-demand imbalance and loose financial environment, with supply disruptions like the suspension of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine being a direct trigger [2] - Long-term demand growth from sectors such as renewable energy, AI computing, and power grids provides ongoing support for copper prices [2] Group 2 - Upstream mining resource leaders directly benefit from rising copper prices due to high resource self-sufficiency and significant earnings elasticity [3] - Midstream processing and high-end material companies focus on deep processing of copper, producing high-value-added products, benefiting from rapid development in downstream sectors like renewable energy and electronics [4] - Companies embedded in the copper industry chain through services like mining development and engineering construction can release earnings elasticity despite not owning copper mines [5] Group 3 - Notable companies include: - Northern Copper Industry, the largest cathode copper supplier in North China, with a low production cost of 32,000 yuan per ton [5][6] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals, the world's largest copper foil producer, with a projected production capacity of 120,000 tons by 2024 and secured orders for high-frequency copper foil until 2026 [6] - Hailiang Co., holding a 35% market share in the global refrigeration copper tube market and successfully entering the electric vehicle thermal management sector [6]

今早翻大宗商品行情，差点以为看岔了——一边油价蔫头耷脑跌到五个月来最低，另一边铜价却铆着劲飙到一年多新高，就连前阵子猛涨的黄金，也悄 悄歇了脚。我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，专做中长线投资，这种"冰火两重天"的行情，可不是随便凑的热闹，得把背后的门道跟大伙唠透。 最后说说稍微歇脚的黄金。前阵子黄金连着涨了五回，还创了新高，今年以来都飙了46%，眼看要追1979年的年度涨幅纪录了。但今早为啥跌了？一来是 美元涨了——黄金是以美元计价的，美元贵了，黄金自然显得"贵"，买的人就少；二来是不少投资者见好就收，毕竟涨了这么多，落袋为安没毛病。再加 上美国政府停摆，本该发的经济数据都推迟了，交易员手里没太多新线索，黄金暂时歇口气也正常。 我做了20年财经记者，看大宗商品最忌讳"单看一条线"——油价跌不是单纯的"差"，铜价涨也不是随便的"疯"，黄金回落更不是"凉了"，每一个涨跌背 后，都是供应、需求、政策、预期在掰手腕。对咱们中长线投资者来说，不用被单日的涨跌晃了神，得盯着核心逻辑：OPEC+最终到底增不增产？铜的 供应问题能不能缓解？美联储降息的节奏稳不稳？把这些摸清楚，比盯着屏幕看涨跌有用多了。我是帮主郑重，后面大 ...

Group 1 - The company is a leading copper producer in the Southwest region, being the only listed platform for the copper industry under China Aluminum Group and China Copper [1] - In 2024, the company is expected to produce 5.48 million tons of copper concentrate, 1.206 million tons of cathode copper, 12.71 tons of gold, 348.99 tons of silver, and 482.86 million tons of sulfuric acid, all showing year-on-year decreases [1][2] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 88.913 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.317 billion yuan, up 24.32% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company's core mining asset is the Pulang Copper Mine, which has a mineral reserve of 956 million tons and a copper metal content of 3.6137 million tons [1] - The Pulang Copper Mine produced 30,600 tons of copper in 2024, accounting for 56% of the company's total output [2] - The company has established three major smelting bases in Southwest, Southeast, and Northern regions, with a total capacity of 1.4 million tons by the end of 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company plans to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining from Yun Copper Group, which will allow it to control and consolidate the subsidiary [2][3] - Liangshan Mining has three mining rights with annual production capacities of 1.65 million tons, 1.98 million tons, and 600,000 tons for its respective mines [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.779 billion yuan, 2.303 billion yuan, and 2.871 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 14, and 11 times based on the closing price on September 29, 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a recommendation based on its strong market position and upcoming asset injections [3][47]. Core Insights - The company is a leading copper producer in Southwest China, backed by its parent company, China Aluminum Corporation (Chinalco), and is the only publicly listed platform for copper operations in China [3][9]. - The company is set to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining, which will enhance its resource base and production capacity [3][33]. - The company has experienced stable revenue growth, with a revenue of 889.13 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.27% [19][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in various sectors including copper exploration, mining, smelting, and the processing of precious and rare metals [9]. - In 2024, the company produced 5.48 million tons of copper concentrate, a decrease of 13.97% year-on-year, and 120.6 million tons of cathode copper, down 12.6% [9][19]. Mining Operations - The core mining asset is the Pulang Copper Mine, which holds 278.22 million tons of copper metal resources, accounting for 77% of the company's total copper resources [2][26]. - The company has a total ore reserve of 956 million tons as of June 2025, with a copper metal content of 3.6137 million tons [2][26]. Smelting Operations - The company has established three major smelting bases in Southwest, Southeast, and Northern China, with a total capacity of 1.4 million tons [29]. - The smelting segment has been impacted by a decline in processing fees, leading to significant profit reductions in its subsidiaries [29][30]. Future Prospects - The acquisition of Liangshan Mining is expected to significantly boost the company's production capacity and profitability, with projected net profits of 17.79 billion yuan, 23.03 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3][47]. - The company is well-positioned for future growth due to its strong resource base and the anticipated recovery in copper processing fees [3][47].

Market Overview - A-shares are showing strong pre-holiday performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.52% and the Hang Seng Index up by 0.87% [1] - Trading volume remains robust at 2.1 trillion yuan, indicating sustained investor interest [1] Sector Performance - Resource stocks, lithium batteries, and real estate sectors are performing well, while high-tech stocks are experiencing profit-taking [1] - The storage chip sector is witnessing a significant price increase, with DRAM prices rising by approximately 20% and NAND flash prices increasing by 5-10% in Q3 [4] - The storage sector is driven by strong AI demand and strategic supply shifts, leading to a structural market change rather than a temporary supply contraction [4] Company Highlights - Companies in the storage sector, such as Jiangbolong and Demingli, are experiencing significant stock price increases, with Jiangbolong up by 178.03% year-to-date [5] - The release of the DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model has positively impacted domestic computing power companies, although some stocks like Cambrian and Haiguang Information saw volatility [2][4] Commodity Trends - Gold prices have surged, reaching a new high of $3,850 per ounce, while copper futures have also increased by over 2% [5] - The copper market is facing two narratives: the increasing demand for electricity in North America and the urgent need for grid upgrades in Europe, positioning copper as a critical resource [7] Market Sentiment - Analysts express cautious sentiment regarding A-shares, predicting only a 1.2% increase by year-end and a 5.5% increase by mid-2026, citing overcrowding in the AI sector and high valuations [9] - The upcoming U.S. economic events, including potential government shutdowns and employment data, are crucial for global market trends [9] Lithium Industry Update - The deadline for lithium mining companies in Yichun to submit resource verification reports is September 30, with no indications of production halts reported [12]

Group 1 - The copper concept sector increased by 3.34%, ranking fourth among concept sectors, with 71 stocks rising, including Shengtun Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Hebei Steel Resources reaching the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the copper sector included Hunan Yuno, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayou Cobalt, which rose by 12.01%, 9.98%, and 9.38% respectively [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 2.052 billion yuan from main funds, with 37 stocks receiving net inflows, and 12 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflows [2] Group 2 - The top net inflow stock was Huayou Cobalt, with a net inflow of 719 million yuan, followed by Xiyeguan, China Metallurgical Group, and Shengtun Mining with net inflows of 440 million yuan, 438 million yuan, and 347 million yuan respectively [2] - The highest net inflow ratios were seen in Xiyeguan, Huahong Technology, and China Metallurgical Group, with net inflow ratios of 37.94%, 25.33%, and 23.86% respectively [3] - The trading volume and turnover rates for key stocks in the copper sector were significant, with Huayou Cobalt at 8.32% turnover and Shengtun Mining at 14.42% [3]

有色股，继续活跃！ 从消息面来看，有色金属板块近期的刺激因素较多。9月28日下午，工信部等八部门印发《有色金属行 业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》。其中提到，科学合理布局氧化铝、铜冶炼、碳酸锂等项目，避 免重复低水平建设，提高投资的精准性和有效性。此外还提到，要做好重要品种国家储备。 申万宏源表示，上述文件在提出有色金属行业增长目标的同时，在供给端也进一步强化反内卷预期，供 给过剩的氧化铝、铜冶炼和碳酸锂等细分领域的竞争格局有望优化，建议关注相关板块企业的利润弹 性。 与此同时，全球第二大铜矿——印尼Grasberg矿山因泥石流事故暂停生产的消息，也引发全球市场关 注。该铜矿的停产引发了铜的涨价预期。在期货市场上，LME铜最近5个交易日涨幅超过4%。 最近几个交易日，有色金属板块持续上行。9月30日，该板块再度走强，截至券商中国记者发稿时，该 板块涨幅超过3%，铜、钴、锂、贵金属等方向领涨，江西铜业、锡业股份、盛屯矿业等多股涨停。午 后，中国中冶也放量涨停。 分析人士指出，近期，有色板块有多个"利好"因素刺激，其中包括行业稳增长工作方案出炉、美联储降 息预期升温、全球第二大铜矿因泥石流事故暂停生产、 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-30 临近月末及长假 现货成交活跃度料相对较低 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-09-29，沪铜主力合约开于 82270元/吨，收于 82370元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.12%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 73,810元/吨，收于 74,060 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.47%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日电解铜现货维持贴水格局，SMM1#铜均价82010-82410元/吨，主力合约贴水5元/吨（持平）。沪 铜早盘震荡于82030-82440元/吨区间，进口亏损收窄至700元/吨以内。受国庆假期及季末因素影响，市场采销情绪 降温，高铜价持续抑制下游采购。平水铜从贴水40元/吨降至贴水60元/吨后反弹至贴水50元/吨成交，湿法铜贴水 100-80元/吨，非注册货源贴水200-160元/吨。预计月末交易活跃度进一步下降，现货升贴水重心或小幅上移。 重要资讯汇总： 利率方面，美联储威廉姆斯称劳动力市场疲软迹象让其在上次会议上支持降息，对实际中性利率的估计是0.75%； 穆萨莱姆称对未来降息持开放态度，但认为需保持谨慎，预计通胀将在未来两到三个季度保持 ...