南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年01月07日 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/01 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 142300 | 4360 | 3.16% | 23480 | 19.76% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 420407 | 116170 | 38.18% | -268357 | -38.96% | 手 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 506520 | -28479 | -5.32% | -5825 | -1.14% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global lithium resource supply is growing rapidly, and it is expected to reach 2.09 million tons of LCE in 2026, a year - on - year increase of about 24.4%. The supply - demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market is evolving from "oversupply" to "tight balance" and even "structural shortage." [1][3] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow explosively, with the global energy - storage shipment and installation volume expected to increase by 51% and 60% year - on - year to 930GWh and 480GWh respectively in 2026. The demand for new energy vehicles will grow steadily, with the global sales volume expected to reach 24.45 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12%. [2] - The cost influence in the trading logic of lithium carbonate has significantly decreased, and the price is more sensitive to upward drivers. The average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 is expected to rise further. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Market Review - **Market Price Review**: In 2025, the price of lithium carbonate showed a "V - shaped" rebound, with a continuous decline in the first half of the year and a strong rebound in the second half. The core driver shifted from "oversupply" to "supply - demand mismatch" caused by unexpected energy - storage demand and supply disturbances. [6] - **Fundamental Logic Review**: The "supply - demand mismatch" caused by supply disturbances and the explosion of energy - storage demand led the market to shift from oversupply to balance reversal. The influence of cost logic on prices decreased significantly. [8][13] 3.2 Supply Maintaining Rapid Growth (+24%) - **Lithium Resource Supply Continuously Increasing, Project Release Accelerating Due to Profit Recovery**: The global lithium resource planned production capacity has been accelerating for several years. Although there were disturbances in 2025, the global supply is expected to increase by 24% to 1.61 million tons of LCE. In 2026, it is expected to reach 2.09 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of about 24.4%. [19][21] - **Significant Disturbances from Domestic Mines and Anti - involution Policies, Continuous High - growth in Lithium Carbonate Production**: In 2025, China's lithium ore reserves increased significantly. The domestic lithium carbonate smelting production capacity is expected to increase by 38.86% to 1.347 million tons of LCE in 2026. [24] 3.3 Lithium - battery Industry Chain Amplifying Demand Growth Rate - **Significant Growth in Cathode Material Production, Lithium Iron Phosphate Dominating**: In 2025, the production of cathode materials and electrolytes increased significantly. Lithium iron phosphate accounted for more than 80% of the market share, mainly due to the high growth of new energy vehicles and the explosive growth of energy - storage demand. [50] - **Strong Growth in the Lithium - battery Industry, China Dominating Globally**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the global power - battery installation volume increased by 35.5% year - on - year. Chinese battery companies occupied a dominant position globally. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of lithium batteries, with healthy supply - demand relationships and strong export performance. [58][66][67] 3.4 Energy - storage Demand Prospects for Explosive Growth (+51%) - **High - speed Growth in Energy - storage Battery Shipment in 2025**: In 2025, the global energy - storage battery shipment is expected to increase by 65% year - on - year to 610GWh. In 2026, the energy - storage cell shipment is expected to increase by 51% year - on - year to 930GW. [85] - **Energy - storage Entering a Definite High - growth Period**: Driven by policies and market mechanisms, the Chinese energy - storage market is in a high - growth period. Overseas energy - storage orders are also increasing significantly. It is expected that the global energy - storage installation volume will reach 480GWh in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 60%. [92][97][100] 3.5 New Energy Vehicle Demand Growing Steadily (+18%) - **New Energy Vehicle High - growth Reaching an Inflection Point**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly. Globally, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 21.65 million, a year - on - year increase of 22%. In 2026, the global sales volume is expected to reach 24.45 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. [106][109][116] - **High Terminal Demand for Lithium Carbonate**: In 2025, the single - vehicle power consumption of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly, and the demand for lithium carbonate increased by 31.74% year - on - year. In 2026, there will still be a 17.56% year - on - year increase. The current industrial chain inventory is healthy, and the replenishment of the industrial chain will amplify the demand. [120][121] 3.6 Balance and Price Outlook - **Balance**: In 2026, the global lithium resource supply is expected to have a surplus of nearly 80,000 tons, with a surplus rate of 3.9%, and the surplus volume is expected to narrow compared to 2025. In China, there is expected to be a shortage of 55,000 tons of lithium carbonate. [131][133] - **Price**: The cost influence on the lithium carbonate price has decreased significantly. The price is more sensitive to upward drivers and is likely to surge during supply disturbances, industrial chain replenishment, and supply - demand seasonal mismatches. The average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 is expected to rise further. [134]

Core Viewpoint - The company Keli Yuan is expanding its lithium carbonate production capacity and enhancing its resource control capabilities through innovative technology and strategic location changes [1] Group 1: Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - Keli Yuan's subsidiary, Jinfeng Lithium Industry, has a planned production capacity of 30,000 tons per year for lithium carbonate, with a phased production and expansion model [1] - The first phase of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate production line was launched in July 2023, and full production is expected to be achieved by December 2023 [1] - The construction of the first phase has laid a solid foundation for the rapid completion of the second phase, which includes facilities and equipment [1] Group 2: Resource Management and Cost Reduction - Donglian Company’s subsidiary, Tong'an Ceramic Mine, obtained a mining license for a recoverable scale of 400,000 tons per year as of December 23, 2024, with normal production and construction progress [1] - The company plans to increase the proportion of self-owned mines in the raw materials for lithium carbonate production, which will gradually reduce manufacturing costs [1] - Innovations in lithium extraction technology are being pursued, with plans to apply these advancements in the second phase project to further lower production costs [1] Group 3: Strategic Location and Resource Control - In 2023, the company changed its registered location to Chenzhou to leverage local lithium resource advantages and strengthen resource control capabilities [1] - The company is conducting innovative research and pilot work on lithium extraction technology in Chenzhou, although a mineral processing plant has not yet been established in Linwu County [1] - The total estimated lithium resource reserves of the company are not less than 12 million tons, equivalent to approximately 400,000 tons of lithium carbonate, which can meet the development needs for over ten years at the planned production capacity of 30,000 tons per year [1] Group 4: Business Model and Sustainability - The company has established a business closed loop from natural mines to industrial chain integration and urban mining through a large-scale energy innovation consortium operating model [1] - The company aims to ensure sustainable development of resource business while continuously improving its business layout through green supply, technological efficiency enhancement, and recycling [1]

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. experienced a decline of 1.01% on December 31, with a stock price of 55.81 yuan per share and a trading volume of 1.28 billion yuan, resulting in a total market capitalization of 91.595 billion yuan [1] - The company, established on October 16, 1995, and listed on August 31, 2010, is primarily engaged in the production and sales of lithium concentrate products and lithium compounds and their derivatives [1] - The revenue composition of Tianqi Lithium includes 50.54% from lithium compounds and derivatives, 49.25% from lithium ore, and 0.21% from other sources [1] Group 2 - The Huatai-PineBridge Fund holds Tianqi Lithium as one of its top ten positions, with the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Sub-Industry Metal Theme ETF (159652) owning 1.2377 million shares, representing 2.65% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has reported a floating loss of approximately 705,500 yuan as of the latest data [2] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI Sub-Industry Metal Theme ETF was established on January 16, 2023, with a current size of 2.221 billion yuan, achieving a year-to-date return of 94.7% and a one-year return of 89.6% [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Sub-Industry Metal Theme ETF are Dong Jin and Sun Hao, with Dong Jin having a tenure of 6 years and 30 days and a best fund return of 66.58% during his tenure [3] - Sun Hao has a tenure of 2 years and 126 days, achieving a best fund return of 132.91% during his management [3]

Group 1 - The company’s lithium hydroxide production line is currently in the ramp-up phase, with the production process largely debugged and product quality stabilizing. It is expected to reach full monthly production capacity by Q1 2026 [2] - The lithium carbonate production line is undergoing technical upgrades, which will allow for flexible product configuration. This includes an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide or 8,000 tons of lithium hydroxide plus 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate [2] - The company plans to adjust production schedules based on market conditions and project progress [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply is steadily increasing while demand is slightly slowing. The raw material prices are rising due to the strong lithium carbonate prices, and smelters are still willing to purchase and stockpile. The supply of lithium salts in China is growing steadily, but downstream procurement is becoming more cautious due to high prices. [2] - The option market sentiment is bearish, with the put - call ratio of total positions at 160.08%, a decrease of 44.7769% compared to the previous period, and the implied volatility slightly decreasing. [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. The suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2,760 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 138,637 lots, down 10,332 lots. The trading volume of the main contract is 511,309 lots, down 1,036 lots. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 2,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 19,491 lots/ton, up 1,300 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,580 yuan/ton, down 2,760 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The average price of amblygonite is 14,025 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 5,106 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons. The monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons. The monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged. [2] - The monthly production of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 38,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 372,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 171,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 153,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 45,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 63%, down 1%. [2] - The monthly production of new energy vehicles (according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) is 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 47.48%, up 0.74%. The cumulative sales volume is 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles. [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume is 2,315,000 vehicles, up 1,174,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 61.94%, down 0.08%. The 40 - day average volatility is 58.37%, down 1.64%. [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 129,272 contracts, up 19,940 contracts. The total put position is 206,942 contracts, down 17,035 contracts. The put - call ratio of total positions is 160.08%, down 44.7769%. The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.51%, down 0.0045%. [2] Industry News - Jinyuan Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that its Baqiancuo salt lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the company focuses on "early production and high - volume production". The company will comprehensively evaluate and plan its Argentine Carlo project based on various factors. [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance, strengthening the fight against administrative monopolies, and intensifying anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement. [2] - The National Energy Administration held a symposium on promoting the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system, emphasizing the implementation of the "three - year doubling" action plan for the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities, accelerating the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system, promoting the planning and construction of high - power charging facilities, and advancing the large - scale application pilot of vehicle - grid interaction. [2] - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, wrote that the growth of the auto market in 2026 is complex. The most important factor at the beginning of the year is the late Spring Festival. Coupled with the early implementation of national subsidies, the market is expected to have a positive start in January, but there will be more pressure in February. [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) has received a notice from the Yichun Public Security Bureau regarding a prosecution for alleged insider trading, with the case now transferred to the procuratorate for review and prosecution [1] Group 1: Legal Proceedings - The case is a follow-up legal procedure based on administrative penalties from the Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau [1] - The company is currently undergoing normal judicial processes related to the allegations [1] Group 2: Business Operations - The company's production and operational activities are reported to be running normally and orderly [1] - It is anticipated that the legal proceedings will not impact the company's regular production and operations [1] Group 3: Information Disclosure - The company will continue to monitor the situation and fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current market is in a unilateral upward trend driven by sentiment and funds. The core contradiction lies in the huge divergence between the futures market's optimistic expectations for supply and the real - world pressures in the spot market (high costs, weak price - following ability, and accumulating warehouse receipts). The market is expected to enter a period of high - level violent fluctuations under the influence of sentiment and regulatory pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of a rapid correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price rose 16.89% to 120,400 yuan/ton this week. The main futures contract soared 17.16% to 130,520 yuan/ton. The prices of other lithium salts such as lithium hydroxide also increased. For example, the price of lithium hydroxide (electric carbon - coarse particles) rose 15.19% to 102,400 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Premium and Discount Changes**: The premium and discount of various raw materials and enterprises decreased. For example, the premium and discount of raw materials like辉石料 decreased by 250 yuan, and that of enterprises like 赣锋锂 decreased by 200 - 300 yuan [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at a high level of 83.52%. There is a structural contradiction between high domestic production and the expected seasonal production reduction in salt lakes. The report also details the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, including production in different regions and from different raw material sources [2]. - **Demand**: Cathode material manufacturers have limited acceptance of high prices and are cautious in purchasing. There is a contradiction between structural support and price suppression in the demand side [2]. - **Import and Export**: The report does not provide relevant data on lithium carbonate imports and exports. The transportation costs of lithium ore from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Nigeria and other countries remained unchanged this week [2][27]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts increased by 15.15% to 17,861 lots this week, indicating that the supply pressure in the spot market is being transmitted to the futures market [2][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw material cost has risen rapidly. The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 18.07% to 129,875 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 9,475.3 yuan/ton, with most production capacities still in a loss state [2]. 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamental Analysis The report also involves the lithium - battery market, including the market conditions, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicles. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the provided content.

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/12/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 118,820.00 | -11700.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -128,305.00 | +897.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 512,345.00 | -64690.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -700.00 | +380.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 18,191.00 | +330.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 118,000.00 | +6100.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 115,000.00 | +5750.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -820.00 | +17800.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,430.00 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 29, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 40 tons to 24,105 tons, and November production increased by 3% to 103,740 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. In November, carbonate lithium imports were 22,055 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using外购 lithium ore to produce carbonate lithium faced cost inversion [5]. - Demand side: Overall production scheduling in December decreased month - on - month, while large battery cell manufacturers' production scheduling in November increased by 2% month - on - month. In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a 3.3% month - on - month and 49.2% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, a 14.1% month - on - month and 46.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 179.4 GWh, an 8.1% month - on - month and 52.2% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. - Inventory: This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 775 tons, market inventory decreased by 2,614 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,350 tons [6]. - Strategy: From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine remains shut down, and Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining licenses (all expired, with no impact on actual supply). In November, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 3% month - on - month, and lithium concentrate imports were 729,000 tons, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. The total import of carbonate lithium in November was about 22,000 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease but a 15% year - on - year increase. Downstream demand is strong, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that subsequent South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage remains good, but production scheduling in January is expected to decline slightly. In November, cathode production scheduling increased by 2% month - on - month. The risk of Yichun's mining licenses persists. With profit recovery, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase production, and the cost center shifts upward. The expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine's resumption within the year has failed. After cathode material manufacturers jointly cut production, downstream production scheduling is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. As downstream purchases of carbonate lithium slow down the destocking rate and traders' inventory accumulates, prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Key Data Tracking Production - related Data - Carbonate lithium weekly production: Last week, production increased by 40 tons to 24,105 tons, and November production increased by 3% to 103,740 tons [5] - Carbonate lithium production by raw material in November 2024: Salt lake accounted for 19.56%, lithium mica 23.05%, and lithium spodumene 45.37% [25][26] Import - related Data - In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. Imports from Australia increased by 44% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons (a 28% month - on - month decrease), and from Nigeria were 92,000 tons (a 16% month - on - month decrease). In November, carbonate lithium imports were 22,055 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease, with 10,800 tons from Chile, accounting for 49% [5] Battery - related Data - In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a 3.3% month - on - month and 49.2% year - on - year increase. The total export was 32.2 GWh, a 14.1% month - on - month and 46.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume was 179.4 GWh, an 8.1% month - on - month and 52.2% year - on - year increase [6] Inventory - related Data - This week, carbonate lithium factory inventory decreased by 775 tons, market inventory decreased by 2,614 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,350 tons [6]