【产业服务总部|有色中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 碳酸锂周报 2025/9/1 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，上周碳酸锂产量环比减少88吨至20350吨，7月产量环比增加5.8%至85690吨。宁德枧下窝矿山确认停产3 个月，宜春和青海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，供应受到影响。一季度澳矿实现对成本的管控，澳矿进一步降本空间极 为有限，主流澳矿基本均已下调25财年资本开支。海外进口方面，2025年7月中国锂矿石进口数量为75.1万吨，环比增加30.3%，其 中进口量前三的国家分别为澳大利亚、尼日利亚、南非，从澳大利亚进口约为42.7万吨，环比增加67%，同比增加12.8%。从津巴布 韦进口锂矿量约6.4万吨，环比减少36%，从尼日利亚进口锂矿11.6万，环比增加47%。7月碳酸锂进口量为1.4万吨，环比减少22%， 自智利进口碳酸锂0.9万吨，占比62%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比上涨，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to the parent company of 84.41 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from loss to profit with a growth rate of 101.62% compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The improvement in performance is primarily attributed to the optimization of lithium concentrate pricing mechanisms, increased profitability from joint venture SQM, and foreign exchange gains from the appreciation of the Australian dollar [1] Production Capacity - Lithium concentrate production capacity reached 1.62 million tons per year, with a mid-term target of 2.14 million tons per year - Lithium chemical product capacity is currently at 91,600 tons, with plans to expand to 122,600 tons - The Greenbushes chemical-grade lithium concentrate plant No. 3 is expected to be completed by the end of the year, while the Zhangjiagang 30,000-ton lithium hydroxide project has completed trial operations, and the Chongqing Tongliang 1,000-ton metallic lithium expansion is progressing simultaneously [1] Technological Innovation - The company is focusing on four major areas for technological innovation: high-value utilization of lithium slag, development of lithium extraction adsorbents from salt lakes, initiation of lithium sulfide pilot projects, and upgrading of waste battery recycling processes - The Innovation Research Institute has commenced operations and is deepening industry-university-research cooperation with institutions such as Harbin Institute of Technology and Beijing University of Science and Technology [1] Digital Governance and ESG Performance - The company has achieved significant results in digital governance, with comprehensive upgrades in smart manufacturing, integration of finance and operations, and risk control systems - The company's ESG performance has gained international recognition, being included in the S&P Global ESG Index series and receiving the Sedex Supply Chain "Environmental Contribution Award" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 84.41 million yuan compared to a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year, despite a decline in revenue and lithium product prices [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 4.833 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 24.71% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 84.41 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 132,000 yuan, compared to a loss of 52.21 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Product Pricing and Sales - The mainstream spot prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide ranged from 60,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, with an overall downward trend despite a slight increase in January [1] - Revenue from lithium ore was 2.38 billion yuan, down 7.43% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 54.23%, a decrease of 11.41 percentage points [2] - Revenue from lithium compounds and derivatives was 2.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.58%, with a gross margin of 25.58%, down 16.98 percentage points [2] Mining Operations - Tianqi Lithium holds mining rights for the world's largest lithium mine, the Greenbushes spodumene mine, which had a total ore extraction of 2.6941 million tons in the reporting period [2] - The average grade of chemical-grade ore was 1.89%, while the technical-grade ore had an average grade of 3.85% [2] - The total production capacity of lithium concentrate is approximately 1.62 million tons per year, with a planned capacity of 2.14 million tons per year [2] Strategic Investments - The company owns approximately 22.16% of SQM, which operates the world's largest lithium salt lake at the Salar de Atacama in Chile, known for its high lithium concentration and low operating costs [3] - Tianqi Lithium has established five lithium chemical product production bases in China and Australia, with a current production capacity of about 91,600 tons per year [3] Production Projects - The first phase of the lithium hydroxide project in Kwinana is currently ramping up, achieving an operational rate of 50% or more [3] - The Jiangsu Zhangjiagang project, with an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium hydroxide, has been completed and is in the trial operation phase [3] - An expansion project in Chongqing for the production of 1,000 tons of metallic lithium is underway, which will increase the company's total lithium chemical product capacity to 122,600 tons per year upon completion [3] Market Outlook - Starting from July 2025, macro policies have released positive signals, and lithium salt prices have rebounded due to supply disruptions caused by compliance issues in some regions [4]

天齐锂业股份有限公司 2025 年半 | 年度报告摘要 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券简称：天齐锂 | 证券代码：002466 | | | | | | 公告编号：2025-043 | 业 | | | | | | 年半年度报告摘要 | 2025 天齐锂业股份有限公司 | | | | | | 一、重要提示 | | | | | | | 本半年度报告摘要来自半年度报告全文，为全面了解本公司的经营成果、财务状况及未来发展规划，投 | | | | | | | 资者应当到证监 | | | | | | | 会指定媒体仔细阅读半年度报告全文。 | | | | | | | 所有董事均已出席了审议本报告的董事会会议。 | | | | | | | 非标准审计意见提示 | | | | | | | □适用 | ?不适用 | | | | | | 董事会审议的报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 | | | | | | | □适用 | ?不适用 | | | | | | 公司计划不派发现金红利，不送红股，不以公积金转增股本。 | | | | | | | 董事会决议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a significant price decline, with the main contract dropping over 5% to a new low since August 8, influenced by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream sectors and supply-side factors affecting prices [1][4]. Supply Side Summary - Lithium carbonate prices continue to decrease, with battery-grade prices at 79,600-83,600 CNY/ton and industrial-grade prices at 78,700-79,900 CNY/ton, both down by 100 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The overall supply-demand balance shows improvement, with reduced inventory and production, but uncertainties remain regarding the approval of mining licenses and operational status of mines [2][5]. - Recent data indicates a weekly lithium carbonate production decrease of 842 tons to 19,138 tons, while total inventory stands at 141,543 tons [2]. Demand Side Summary - The market is currently in the traditional peak season ("Golden September, Silver October"), providing some rigid support for demand, although purchasing activity has slowed as buyers await further price declines [3][4]. - Downstream production is expected to maintain growth in September, but the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious due to previous stockpiling [3]. Import and Export Summary - In July, China's lithium carbonate imports totaled approximately 13,845 tons, down 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year, with an average import price of about 9,987 USD/ton [3]. - Chile and Argentina remain the primary sources of lithium carbonate imports, with significant reductions in import volumes from both countries [3]. Market Outlook Summary - Analysts suggest that despite the recent price drop, there may still be upward potential for lithium carbonate prices, driven by supply-side disruptions and ongoing demand support [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with a price range forecasted between 75,000 and 82,000 CNY/ton, as participants adjust to changing market conditions [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot trading of lithium carbonate has shown some improvement and is in a volatile state [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 79,260 yuan, down 320 yuan from the previous day; its trading volume was 19,572 lots, up 3,687 lots; and its open interest was 34,045 lots, down 10,665 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price was 79,020 yuan, down 360 yuan; its trading volume was 559,599 lots, down 67,317 lots; and its open interest was 349,496 lots, down 19,171 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 26,690 lots, up 1,060 lots from the previous day [1] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and the 2509 contract was 2,440 yuan, down 480 yuan; the basis between the spot and the 2511 contract was 2,680 yuan, down 440 yuan; the basis between the 2509 and 2511 contracts was 240 yuan, up 40 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 920 US dollars, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,970 yuan, down 25 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan, down 800 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 yuan, down 800 yuan [1] - **Related Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 35,620 yuan, down 190 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,400 yuan, down 60 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,739 yuan/ton, down 780 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton [2] - Galan Lithium completed its due diligence on August 25 and met all conditions for placing 20 million Australian dollar shares to Clean Elements Fund. The funds will be paid in two installments. Galan will have the funds to complete the first - phase construction of the Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project and start producing the first batch of lithium chloride concentrate in the first half of 2026, with an annual capacity of 4,000 tons LCE [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strengthening, with high production, rising downstream demand, and social inventory depletion. The short - term fundamentals change little, but beware of the repeated "reversal" sentiment. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, buy on dips and appropriately purchase options for protection if it drops excessively, or buy straddle options [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - On August 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 5999 lots (- 67314), and the open interest was 34996 lots (- 1917). The spot market showed a rising trend, and the basis premium decreased [1] - The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared with the previous day, while the trading volume and open interest of the active contract decreased, and the inventory decreased [1] 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased, while the prices of lithium mica (different grades), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (different grades), and most lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary materials changed to varying degrees [1] - The price differences between different grades of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products also changed. For example, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 550 [1] 3.3 Lithium Inventory - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed different trends in different sectors. The inventory of smelters decreased by 2847 tons, the inventory of downstream increased by 3224 tons, and the inventory of others decreased by 1090 tons. The total inventory decreased by 713 tons [1] 3.4 Industry News - SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. plans to invest about 800 million yuan to expand its lithium carbonate production capacity in Xinjiang from 500 tons to 10,000 tons. Jiuwu Hi - tech and Lanxiao Technology won the bids for the core systems in the equipment procurement of this expansion project [1] - Australian miner Galan Lithium obtained 20 million Australian dollars (equivalent to 13 million US dollars) in financing for its Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina. The project is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026 and has 7.86 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resources [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows that the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is expected to strengthen in the next month with potential inventory reduction. The cost - dominated situation has weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 77,640 - 81,120 [8][9]. - The overall situation of the lithium - related industry is affected by factors such as production capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily -环比 cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 78,817 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,516 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 81,868 yuan/ton, a 3.53% daily decrease, with a loss of 5,641 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: The basis of the 11 - contract is 3,120 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The overall inventory is 141,543 tons, a 0.50% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above the MA20 [10]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power - battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salt, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have different degrees of changes, including increases and decreases [16]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products show different trends of increase and decrease [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore shows a certain trend of change, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has different levels of production in different months and years [26]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [29]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) show different trends [32]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed, and the export volume from Chile to China has also shown a downward trend [32][35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [38]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) show different trends [41]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed in different months and years [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials) show different trends [46][49]. - **Processing and Purification Profit**: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also show different trends [49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) shows different trends of increase and decrease [19][54]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) shows different trends [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries show different trends, and the export volume of lithium batteries also changes in different years [58]. - **Cost**: The cost of lithium - battery cells shows different trends [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursor shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary precursors also shows different trends [63]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors show different trends [63]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary materials also shows different trends [69]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of ternary materials show different trends [69][71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of iron phosphate lithium also shows different trends [73]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly production and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium show different trends [76]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium shows different trends [78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles show different trends, and the sales penetration rate also changes [81][82]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers show different trends [85].

三是有息负债增长导致财务费用提升。1H25 公司财务费用为7.2 亿元，同比+23%，财务费用增长主要 由于公司借款增加，截至2025 年中报公司资产负债率达到58.6%，同比+12.23ppt。 1H25 业绩低于我们预期 公司公布1H25 业绩，实现营业收入83.76 亿元，同比-12.65%，归母净利润-5.31 亿元，同比-30.13%， 扣非净利润-9.13 亿元。公司2Q25 实现营业收入46.04 亿元，同比1.62%，环比22.07%，归母净利 润-1.75 亿元，扣非净利润-6.71 亿元，同比-814.98%，环比176.91%，低于我们预期。 一是锂价下行导致盈利和投资收益下降。1H25 国内电池级碳酸锂价格为7.0 万元/吨，同比-32%，锂价 下行导致锂业务利润承压，1H25 锂业务毛利润4.0 亿元，同比-48%。锂价下行同时导致公司对锂矿的 股权投资收益下降，1H25 公司对联营企业的投资收益-2.45 亿元，其中Mt Marion 锂矿净利润为-3.7 亿 元，五矿盐湖由于低成本净利润0.5 亿元。 二是锂电池业务毛利增长支撑业绩。1H25 公司锂电池业务实现毛利润4.2亿元， ...

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium was affected by mine shutdowns and permit reviews, while overseas imports showed mixed trends. The cost of some manufacturers was under pressure, and the demand showed an upward trend in August. The inventory was in a destocking state. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely, and cautious trading is recommended [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased by 345 tons to 20,438 tons, and the output in July increased by 5.8% to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and manufacturers in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for mine - right transfer reviews. The cost - reduction space of Australian mines is limited, and most have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The imports from Australia were about 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. The imports from Zimbabwe decreased by 36% month - on - month, and those from Nigeria increased by 47% month - on - month. The imports of carbonate lithium in July were 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22%, and 9,000 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% [5] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Manufacturers with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5] Demand - The overall production schedule in August increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7% month - on - month. In July, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The total export was 23.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% but a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The sales volume was 127.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% but a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. Policies are expected to support the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China [6] Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium was in a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,590 tons, market inventory decreasing by 591 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,505 tons [6] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, but there are still risks in mine certificates, and the cost center has shifted upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers has increased. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely. Cautious trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material manufacturers [6] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and output - loading volume differences of power batteries, production of different cathode materials, import volume of lithium spodumene and carbonate lithium, and market prices of related materials [8][10][12] - In July 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from lithium spodumene [20][21]