Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a new upward trend driven by demand, contrasting with previous price increases that were primarily supply-driven [2][10]. Industry Monitoring - As of November 17, the domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate price is between 86,000 to 88,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 87,000 yuan/ton, up 2.35% from the previous working day [6]. - The battery-grade lithium carbonate price ranges from 88,000 to 91,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 89,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.87% increase [6]. - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index is at 85,010 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 538 yuan/ton [8]. Supply Side - Lithium carbonate production increased by 385 tons to 23,850 tons last week, with October production up 10% to 105,040 tons [10]. - The supply is affected by the suspension of operations at the Ningde Jiangxia Mine for three months and regulatory reviews in Yichun and Qinghai regions [10]. - The Australian lithium mines have limited further cost reduction potential, with major Australian mines reducing capital expenditures for the 2025 fiscal year [10]. Demand Side - The demand for lithium carbonate shows unexpected resilience, driven by strong growth in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, with October battery installation reaching 84.1 GWh, a 10.7% month-on-month increase and a 42.1% year-on-year increase [12]. - In October, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.772 million units, a month-on-month increase of 9.59%, with sales of 1.715 million units, up 6.12% [12]. - The energy storage sector is also experiencing robust demand, with significant increases in orders for related companies [13]. Inventory and Profitability - Since August, the lithium carbonate market has seen 13 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, with current social inventory down to 120,000 tons [13]. - The average price of lithium concentrate is around 1,000+ USD/ton, with profits from external mining operations estimated at around 2,000 yuan [15]. Market Perspectives - The current market is characterized by a dynamic balance, with short-term support from seasonal demand and rising costs in the Jiangxi region due to stricter environmental regulations [17]. - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend, but there are concerns about the potential for inventory accumulation and reduced purchasing willingness from end-users [17]. - The energy storage sector is anticipated to be a key driver of future demand growth for lithium carbonate, with optimistic long-term price forecasts [18].

Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium maintain a tight balance. The downstream demand is strong, and it is expected that the subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. The price is expected to continue a strong and volatile trend, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the mining certificates of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply Side - Last week, the production of carbonate lithium increased by 385 tons week-on-week to 23,850 tons, and the production in October increased by 10% month-on-month to 105,040 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% to 109,000 tons, from Nigeria increased by 14.4% to 120,000 tons, and from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons. In September, the import of carbonate lithium was 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium with purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand Side - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers in September increased by 8% month - on - month. In October, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month increase and a 50.5% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 28.2 GWh, a 5.5% month - on - month increase and a 33.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 166.0 GWh, a 13.3% month - on - month increase and a 50.8% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are also expected to continue to support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market sales in China [6]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a destocking state, with the factory inventory of carbonate lithium decreasing by 160 tons and the futures inventory decreasing by 162 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down. In October, the domestic production of carbonate lithium increased by 10% month - on - month. In September, the import of lithium concentrate was 711,000 tons, a 14.7% month - on - month increase, and the total import of carbonate lithium in September was about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. The downstream demand is strong, and the domestic supply and demand maintain a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production schedule of cathode materials in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month, and the production schedule in September increased by 8% month - on - month. The risk of mining certificates in Yichun, Jiangxi persists. With the profit recovery, the production of lithium from ore continues to increase, and the cost center moves up. At present, there is still no conclusion on the submission and review of the reserve verification reports of Yichun mining enterprises. The downstream production schedule exceeds expectations, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end. During the peak season, downstream enterprises actively purchase carbonate lithium, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and continue to pay attention to the progress of the mining certificates of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and factory monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, average prices of carbonate lithium and lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of different raw - material - based carbonate lithium, differences between domestic power battery production and loading volume, production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, average production cost of carbonate lithium, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, and market prices of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [8][11][13][18][20][23][24][26][30][32][36][38][40][42]. - In October 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 19.56% from salt lakes, 23.55% from lithium mica, and 44.87% from lithium spodumene [24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. - Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,340 - 87,820 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease [10]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 105,719 tons, a 0.70% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary materials was 19,553 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 82,955 yuan/ton, a 0.66% daily increase, with a loss of 815 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 86,558 yuan/ton, a 0.54% daily increase, with a loss of 6,476 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral. Basis: On November 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish. Inventory: The total inventory is 123,953 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral. Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. Bullish. Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [9][12]. - Bullish factors: Manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [13]. - Bearish factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains high, and the decline is limited; the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [14]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.92% to 984 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.22% to 83,300 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and other lithium ores showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 10.61% to 520,514 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased by 64.07% to 347,215 tons [19]. - Lithium carbonate: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 123,953 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease. The monthly production in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly import volume was 19,596.90 tons, a 10.30% decrease [19]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide was 29,220 tons, a 6.37% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly net export volume was 5,053.18 tons, a 13.60% increase [19]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium battery: The monthly production of power batteries, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries, and the export volume of lithium batteries all showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60% to 76,000 GWh [19]. - Ternary precursor: The monthly production of ternary precursors was 92,400 tons, a 4.92% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 7,800 tons, a 101.73% increase [64]. - Ternary material: The monthly production of ternary materials was 12,450 tons, a 12.67% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 2,000 tons, a 100% increase [67]. - Lithium iron phosphate: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a 10.54% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 3,091,994 kilograms, a 54.57% increase [19]. - New energy vehicle: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles all showed different degrees of growth. For example, the production increased by 9.59% to 1,772,000 vehicles, and the sales increased by 14.98% to 1.604 million vehicles [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of domestic lithium carbonate remains in a tight balance before the issue of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is clearly resolved. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, and it is likely to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. Traders are advised to be cautious and pay attention to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Views - **Supply Side** - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate production increased by 150 tons week - on - week to 23,320 tons, and October's production increased by 10% month - on - month to 105,040 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In Q3, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. Lithium carbonate imports in September were 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate from externally purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. - **Demand Side** - Overall production scheduling in October increased month - on - month, and in September, the production scheduling of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month and 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month and 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are also expected to continuously support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. - **Inventory** - This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 1,245 tons, market inventory decreased by 59 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 1,078 tons [6]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple sets of data on lithium carbonate, including historical price trends of spot -含税 average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, and production proportion of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in October 2024. It also shows data on battery production (including power and other batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries), production and loading volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, and production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium. In addition, it includes price data of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as import volume data of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [8][9][11][13][23][24][26][30][31][36][38][42].

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock opened over 7% higher following the release of its financial results, indicating positive market sentiment despite challenges in the lithium product market [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ganfeng Lithium reported revenue of 14.625 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.02% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.52 million RMB, a significant recovery from a loss of 640 million RMB in the same period last year [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.01 RMB [1] Sales and Pricing Dynamics - The company experienced a decline in revenue during the third quarter, primarily due to a decrease in both the sales volume and average selling price of lithium products compared to the previous year [1] - The increase in net profit was attributed to a shortened pricing cycle for lithium from its subsidiary Windfield Holdings Pty Ltd, which mitigated previous mismatches in pricing mechanisms for lithium chemical products [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as "1", indicating a "moderately strong" outlook, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - Lithium carbonate's basis is stable and the market is trending moderately strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 81,740 and 82,900 respectively. The trading volume of the 2511 contract decreased by 21,579, while the 2601 contract decreased by 69,886. The open interest of the 2511 contract decreased by 10,759, and the 2601 contract increased by 18,079 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 27,525 hands, an increase of 190 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract is -2,590, and between spot and 2601 contract is -3,750. The basis between 2511 and 2601 contracts is -1,160 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 928, an increase of 3. The price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,130, an increase of 65 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 79,150, an increase of 650. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 76,950, an increase of 650 [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of various downstream products such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 103,000, an increase of 2,500 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 79,207 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 654 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 7.915 million yuan/ton, a daily increase of 650 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 7.695 million yuan/ton, a daily increase of 650 yuan/ton [2]. - **Liontown Resources**: In Q3 2025, Kathleen Valley produced 87,200 tons of lithium concentrate, a 1.5% increase. It sold 77,500 tons, a 20.4% decrease. The recovery rate reached 70%. The FOB operating cost was 715 dollars/ton, a 21.7% increase. The average CIF price of SC6 was 700 dollars/ton. The open - pit mine will be mined out next quarter, and underground mining volume will increase by 105%. Future production, recovery rate, and operating efficiency are expected to improve, and the annual FOB operating cost will decline [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - On October 21, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market was mostly in a wait - and - see mode, and the discount widened. With both supply and demand strong currently, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakening, the downstream destocking is slowing down, and the demand inflection point may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited [1]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Price Data - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On October 21, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 75800 yuan/ton, 75580 yuan/ton, 75980 yuan/ton, and 75980 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 197,979 lots (+28,871), and the open interest of the active contract was 310,199 lots (+171,765). The inventory was 29,892 tons (-813) [1]. - **Lithium Ore and Related Products**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 854 US dollars/ton (+3), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1115 yuan/ton (+15), and lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1845 yuan/ton (+20). The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton, and (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 7520 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Chemical Products**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,100 yuan/ton (+100), and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 71,850 yuan/ton (+100). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.45 US dollars/kg (unchanged) [1]. - **Other Products**: The average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium (99.95%/domestic) was 82,000 yuan/ton (+3,000), and the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 102,650 yuan/ton (+100) [1]. 2. Market Information - Sigma Lithium canceled its plan to start producing lithium carbonate in Brazil and instead focused on tripling its lithium ore production by 2030. As prices decline, market participants are shifting to mid - stream processing to ensure stable production of raw materials and precursors, which are the main cost - driving factors for electric vehicle batteries [1]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and lithium ore prices such as spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rose [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the scheduled production of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries will increase in October [1]. 4. Inventory Situation - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 136,825 tons (-2,143), with smelters and downstream sectors destocking [1]. 5. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to sell short at the upper edge of the short - term trading range [1].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a significant rebound in the second half of the year, with prices rising from 60,000 yuan per ton to over 70,000 yuan, marking a shift from a prolonged downturn to a potential recovery [1][2]. Price Recovery - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 73,200 yuan on October 17, up 13,300 yuan from the low of 59,000 yuan on June 25, representing a 22.23% increase [2]. - The market had faced a severe downturn for nearly two years, with prices dropping below 70,000 yuan and hitting a low of 59,000 yuan in late June [2]. - The price drop below 60,000 yuan had forced many lithium salt companies into losses, leading to production halts in regions like Jiangxi and Sichuan [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rebound in prices is attributed to marginal improvements in supply and demand fundamentals [3]. - Supply constraints have been influenced by new policies that classify lithium as a strategic mineral, increasing production costs and reducing supply by 47,000 tons this year [3]. - Demand remains stable, supported by government initiatives to boost electric vehicle (EV) consumption, including financial incentives for trade-ins and loans [3][4]. Inventory Trends - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing since June, with a reduction of approximately 21,000 tons by the end of September, nearly a 50% decline [4]. Long-term Market Outlook - Industry experts express caution regarding the sustainability of the current price rebound, indicating that the fundamental issue of oversupply remains unresolved [5]. - High demand for lithium is expected to continue, but planned supply increases from producers between 2025 and 2028 may exceed market needs, leading to potential oversupply [6]. - The demand for lithium may face challenges post-2027 as subsidies are removed, and shifts in technology preferences could further impact demand dynamics [6].

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] Report Date - October 20, 2025 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium will remain in a tight balance until there is a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi. It is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is strong, with large battery cell manufacturers increasing their production schedules by 8% in September and a projected 4% increase in cathode production in October. There are ongoing risks related to mining licenses, and with profit recovery, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase, leading to a rise in the cost center. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers is increasing, and warehouse receipts are being continuously cancelled. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end, and it is recommended to trade cautiously and monitor the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints 3.1.1 Supply Situation - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's carbonate lithium production increased by 326 tons week - on - week to 22,765 tons, and September's production increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the first half of the year, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025. In August 2025, China imported 619,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 17.5% decrease from the previous month. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, imports from Zimbabwe were 118,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 83.9%, imports from Nigeria were 105,000 tons, a 9.5% decrease, and imports from Mali increased by 73,000 tons. In August, 21,847 tons of carbonate lithium were imported, a 57.8% month - on - month increase, with 15,608 tons from Chile, accounting for 71%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. 3.1.2 Demand Situation - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increased by 8% in September. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease but a 23.9% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory Situation - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking trend. Factory inventory decreased by 2,255 tons, market inventory increased by 13,194 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 11,983 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy Recommendations - Given the current situation, it is recommended to trade cautiously and continuously monitor the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production and inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium concentrate imports, production proportion of carbonate lithium from different raw materials in September 2024, differences between domestic power battery production and loading volume, average production cost of carbonate lithium, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, and average price of ternary materials 8 - series NCA type [8][9][11][24] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, with total inventory declining for 9 consecutive weeks, strong demand, and increasing production. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate upward, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a new low for the year. The year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3%. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year [3] - Sino - US trade disputes resurfaced, global market risk appetite declined, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is almost certain [3] 3.2 Supply Side - As of October 17, the lithium carbonate production was 22,765 tons, a week - on - week increase of 326 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 51.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.74%. Domestic smelting capacity expansion led to a significant increase in production [8] - As of October 17, the lithium hydroxide production was 5,943 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 39.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%. Production release was limited [10] - As of October 17, the lithium iron phosphate production was 78,164 tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 68.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08%. New capacity was under ramping up [13] 3.3 Demand Side - From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 367,000 units, a 1% year - on - year decrease and a 1% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.236 million units, a 23% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 328,000 units, a 1% year - on - year increase and an 11% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.775 million units, a 31% year - on - year increase [3] 3.4 Cost and Profit - As of October 17, the African SC 5% lithium ore was priced at $590/ton, unchanged from last week; the Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF price was $835/ton, a $10/ton increase from last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [4][47] - As of October 17, the lithium carbonate production cost was 67,893 yuan/ton, a 140 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 5,887 yuan/ton, a 530 - yuan increase [4][49] - As of October 17, the lithium hydroxide production cost was 68,541 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 6,200 yuan/ton, a 77 - yuan increase [52] - As of October 17, the lithium iron phosphate production cost was 35,177 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the industry loss was 1,008 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan/ton decrease [54] 3.5 Inventory - As of October 16, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons, a 2,144 - ton decrease from last week, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 30,686 tons, a 11,983 - ton decrease from last week [32] - As of October 17, the total lithium iron phosphate inventory was 43,978 tons, a 6,200 - ton decrease from last week [35] 3.6 Market Price - As of October 17, the battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price was 74,500 yuan/ton, a 1.36% increase from last week; the LC2511 contract closed at 75,700 yuan/ton, a 4% increase from last week [5][6] - Various lithium - related products showed different price changes, with some rising and some falling [5] 3.7 Market Outlook - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate remain in a tight balance, with strong terminal demand, which strongly supports the price. The main contract is expected to fluctuate upward [4]