1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].

Group 1: Tin Industry Insights - The supply-demand gap and monetary easing signal a clear upward trend in tin prices, with three companies holding quality mines being recommended by institutions [3] - Global tin ore grades are declining, and cost pressures are increasing, while the macro environment is improving and demand expectations are positive, leading to a stronger pricing power for mines [3][5] - With the gradual easing of domestic and international monetary policies, asset prices are expected to benefit, potentially leading to a sustained increase in the central price of tin [3][7] Group 2: Third-Party Testing Industry Insights - The third-party testing industry is characterized by a "just-in-time" demand with a projected annual growth rate of 14% and a market size of $21 billion, driven by the semiconductor industry's expansion [8] - The demand for testing services is increasing due to the continuous R&D investments and capacity expansions by downstream integrated circuit companies [8][9] - The trend towards specialization in the integrated circuit industry is expected to benefit third-party testing laboratories, which offer higher efficiency and more objective results [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impending resumption of tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, which is expected to impact the market dynamics of tin prices and supply-demand balance [1] Group 2 - Tin prices have recently reached a three-week low, indicating potential volatility in the market as supply conditions change with the resumption of exports [1] - The market is closely monitoring how the supply from Myanmar will influence global tin prices and overall market trends [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the tin market showed characteristics of "weak supply and demand." The LME tin price first rose and then fell (from $38,000 to $32,000 per ton), and the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated between 240,000 and 280,000 yuan per ton [3][5][13] - The supply of tin ore remained tight. From January to May, the imported tin concentrate was 50,200 tons (-36.6%), the supply from Myanmar decreased by 80%, and the resumption of production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was delayed, putting pressure on processing fees [3] - The refined tin production at the smelting end was 88,900 tons (-3.6%), and the production of recycled tin dropped sharply by 17.3% due to the impact of tariffs [3] - The demand was clearly differentiated. The electronics sector (integrated circuits +6.8%) supported high - end demand, while the photovoltaic industry showed signs of over - capacity [3] - In the second half of the year, in the context of relatively weak supply and demand, the tin price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Fluctuation in the First Half of 2025 - The tin price showed a volatile trend of rising first and then falling. At the beginning of the year, affected by the delayed resumption of mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the tin ore supply was continuously tight, and the LME tin price once soared to $38,000 per ton. After March, with the gradual release of Indonesia's export quota, combined with the slowdown of photovoltaic installation growth and the interference of Trump's tariff policy, the tin price fell from its high to around $32,000 per ton. In China, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated widely between 240,000 and 280,000 yuan per ton, and the high spot premium reflected the tight supply pattern [5][13] 3.2 Supply - side Overview 3.2.1 Low Processing Fees - Since August 2024, affected by the mining ban in Wa State, the domestic tin concentrate has been in a relatively scarce state. From January to May 2025, China's imported tin concentrate reached 50,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.57%. The imported concentrate from Myanmar was only 10,900 tons, less than 20% of the same period last year [16] - Another major source of concentrate, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, had its Bisie mining area suspended from March 13 to April 15. The first batch of goods shipped to China is expected to arrive in July. From January to May, the domestic imported tin concentrate from the Democratic Republic of the Congo was 12,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.86%. If the shipment can remain stable, it will be an effective supplement to domestic ore sources [16] - The relative scarcity of the ore end has kept the ore - end processing fees at a low level. The actual processing fee in Yunnan is currently around 11,000 yuan per ton, and in other regions such as Jiangxi and Hunan, it is even lower, with some refineries dropping below 6,000 yuan per ton [18] 3.2.2 Smelting Output - From January to June 2025, the domestic refined tin output reached 88,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.60%. Due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on tin solder, the output of recycled tin decreased more significantly, reaching 19,600 tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. Before the supply at the ore end is improved, it is difficult for the smelting output to increase significantly [6][25] 3.2.3 Tin Ingot Import and Export - From January to May 2025, the domestic refined tin imports reached 9,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.91%, and the exports reached 9,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.5%. In the second half of this year, as the photovoltaic sector may enter a stage of slow growth, the import volume may slow down, and it is expected to remain in a net export state in the next few months [30] 3.3 Terminal Situation Overview 3.3.1 Development of the Automobile Industry - In 2025, the global automobile market is undergoing profound changes, with the transformation of electrification and intelligence continuing to deepen. In the third - quarter traditional off - season, the market popularity is expected to exceed expectations due to the concentrated launch of flagship models with L3 - level autonomous driving capabilities. Domestic new - energy brands are expanding their market share with core technology breakthroughs such as 800V high - voltage platforms and solid - state batteries. Chinese car companies' overseas layout is paying off, and intelligent driving technology is rapidly iterating [31][34] - From January to May 2025, the domestic traditional automobile production reached 7.126 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 4.44%, while the new - energy vehicle production reached 5.699 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45%, and the export volume reached 789,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.1% [34] 3.3.2 Home Appliance Industry - Since 2025, the Chinese home - appliance export market has faced significant pressure, mainly due to the continuous fermentation of the Sino - US trade dispute and the periodic weakening of global restocking demand. The traditional OEM export model is transforming into a new development path of "local production + brand operation + long - term in - depth cultivation." Different home - appliance varieties may face significant differentiation in the future, and the industry as a whole is less likely to maintain high - speed growth. After the strong export, there are signs of a decline. In the second half of the year, the home - appliance sector may not perform well under the situation of no obvious recovery in the real - estate market and great uncertainty in the foreign - trade environment [39][40] 3.3.3 Electronics Sector - The electronics sector is becoming an important demand growth point. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the capital expenditures of three major Chinese technology giants (Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu) have increased significantly. Even when the PMI data is relatively poor, the high - tech manufacturing industry remains at a relatively healthy level. From January to May 2025, the domestic integrated - circuit production and export volume increased by 6.8% and 21.13% respectively, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen significantly since April [44] 3.4 Inventory Situation - At the beginning of the year, the trends of tin inventories at home and abroad were significantly different: domestic inventories continued to accumulate while overseas inventories decreased. After April, they both decreased synchronously. Overseas inventories decreased rapidly due to tight supply and are currently at a historical low. In China, high supply and high prices at the beginning of the year suppressed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. After the price decline in April, the rush to install photovoltaic panels drove restocking demand, and the increase in the proportion of long - term orders diverted inventory, promoting the inventory - reduction process. In the short term, the tight ore end supports the inventory - reduction trend, but as the supply from Wa State, Myanmar, and Indonesia recovers, the inventory may start to accumulate in the fourth quarter [51]

Group 1 - The U.S. first-quarter consumption has been revised down, leading to a drop in the dollar index below 97, a three-year low, while copper prices have surged, boosting non-ferrous metals [1] - Tin supply remains tight due to insufficient mining permits in Myanmar and transportation restrictions from Thailand, impacting tin imports [1] - Domestic processing fees are low, with smelters facing losses and reduced raw material inventories, resulting in smelter operating rates below normal levels [1] Group 2 - The recovery of tin supply is expected to improve with the resumption of transportation from African tin mines and the progress in Myanmar's production, although the timing and scale of recovery remain uncertain [1] - In the photovoltaic sector, orders for tin bars in East China have declined post-installation rush, leading to reduced operating rates among some producers [1] - The electronics sector in South China is entering a low season, with high tin prices causing a cautious approach among end-users, maintaining only essential orders [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of tin is neutral, and the price range is 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - The weekly tin price rebounded slightly, closing at 265,580 yuan/ton on Friday night. The current tin fundamentals maintain a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. In the short term, the tin price will be in the high - range of 260,000 to 270,000 yuan. The upward breakthrough of the price is restricted by the long - term supply expectation, and the downward decline is restricted by the reality of raw material shortage. It is recommended to short at high positions above 265,000 yuan [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Fund, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was 80.99 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 950 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums were basically flat compared with last week, and the Baltimore premium narrowed slightly [8][9][14] - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from the previous C structure to the B structure [17] - **Inventory**: This week, the global total tin inventory decreased by 185 tons, the domestic social inventory decreased by 100 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 258 tons. The LME inventory increased by 20 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rose to 31.72% [22][26] - **Fund**: As of this Friday, the precipitated funds for Shanghai tin were 124.401 million yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the outflow direction [32] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin rebounded slightly, and the open interest increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin rebounded slightly, and the open interest continued to decline [34][40] - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: This week, the open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin rebounded slightly [46] 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In March 2025, the production of tin concentrate was 6,344 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%. In May 2025, the import volume was 13,449 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.84%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 36.51%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained flat at 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore rebounded slightly [50][51] - **Smelting**: In May 2025, the domestic tin ingot production was 14,840 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.24%. This week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces of Jiangxi and Yunnan was 46.84%, a slight decline from last week [53][55] - **Import**: In May 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, exports were 1,779 tons, and the net exports were 306 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 1,478 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 10,123 yuan/ton [62] 3. Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - **Consumption Volume**: In April 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 15,146 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 15,907 tons [66] - **Tin Materials**: This week, the downstream processing fees declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in April declined slightly. The production and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in March rebounded slightly [68] - **End - User Consumption**: In May 2025, the production performance of end - user products varied. The performance of household appliances was weak, with a general month - on - month decline. However, the production of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer systems increased month - on - month but was at a historically low level. The consumption of household appliances and new energy sources showed a month - on - month rebound in May 2025. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, which was in sync with the performance of the tin price [71][73][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - The recent market sentiment is stable, and the market is mainly in a state of shock. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, due to the boost in processing output and the increase in lithium extraction from some spodumene, the balance may be in surplus. The short - term market is expected to operate in a weak range, but the profit - to - risk ratio of short - selling is weakening, and the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [1]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, but the sentiment in the spot market is low. The cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply remains loose, restricting the upside space. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to adjust through weak - range shock, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000 yuan [2]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals remain weak. The ore end provides some price support, the negotiation range of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short - term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [5]. Tin - The supply - side recovery is slow. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Aluminum - For aluminum, the short - term upper limit is around 20,500 yuan, and the price is expected to be around 20,000 yuan with a fluctuating trend. If the actual demand weakens in the third quarter, the price may find support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan. For alumina, if the ore - end issues do not worsen, smelters may resume production after profit recovery, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase [8]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may remain in a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, zinc prices may decline. It is advisable to short at high levels in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [10]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong fundamentals limit the downward movement of prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside space. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 28,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 59,170 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 53,170 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The average CIF price of lithium carbonate in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan from the previous value; the spread between 2507 and 2509 is 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the spread between 2507 and 2512 is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, a decrease of 2.34% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, an increase of 2.33%; industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, a decrease of 12.41%. The demand for lithium carbonate in May was 93,938 tons, an increase of 4.81% [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 120,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 121,425 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%. The import profit and loss of nickel futures is - 3,234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.89% [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan [2]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease of 2.62% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 8,832 tons, an increase of 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% week - on - week, and social inventory decreased by 5.24% [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures spread is 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.49% [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in April was 179.12 million tons, an increase of 0.36%; the production in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 36 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of stainless steel increased by 10.26%, and the export volume decreased by 4.85% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin is 264,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%; the price of Yangtze River 1 tin is 264,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is - 110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15.38% [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [7]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The import volume of tin ore in April was 9,861 tons, an increase of 18.48%; the production of SMM refined tin in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37%. The import volume of refined tin in April was 1,128 tons, a decrease of 46.31% [7]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 3,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - The production of alumina in May was 727.21 million tons, an increase of 2.66%; the production of electrolytic aluminum in May was 372.90 million tons, an increase of 3.41%. The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in April was 25.05 million tons [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%; the import profit and loss is - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.62 yuan [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [10]. Fundamental Data - The production of refined zinc in May was 54.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.08%; the import volume of refined zinc in April was 2.82 million tons, an increase of 2.40%. The export volume of refined zinc in April was 0.25 million tons, an increase of 75.76% [10]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 78,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%; the import profit and loss is - 1,144 yuan/ton, an increase of 254.33 yuan [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of electrolytic copper in May was 113.83 million tons, an increase of 1.12%; the import volume of electrolytic copper in April was 25 million tons, a decrease of 19.06%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports increased by 8.76% week - on - week [13].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The gaming industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the mini-game segment, which has become a crucial category within the market. The mini-game market is projected to reach 39.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 99.2% [4] - The theme park industry is evolving with a focus on immersive experiences, which are becoming a core driver for investment and construction. The market for theme parks is expected to grow, benefiting from the demand for immersive experiences [5] - Tin is increasingly recognized as a "computing metal," with its demand expected to rise due to the booming AI-driven global semiconductor market. However, supply concerns persist due to geopolitical issues and resource depletion [6] Company-Specific Insights 富春股份 (Fuchun Co.) - Fuchun Co. is actively pursuing opportunities in the mini-game sector, with plans to complete the project for the mini-game "Qin's Moon" by early 2025, aiming for a breakthrough in this business segment [4] - The company is also involved in the promotion of "Longan's Lychee," indicating a strategy to leverage popular content for growth [4] 罗曼股份 (Roman Co.) - Roman Co. is set to benefit from the opening of the Shanghai Lego Land in July 2023, along with potential new theme parks based on popular franchises like Harry Potter and Peppa Pig [5] - The company has acquired Holovis, a key player in the immersive experience sector, positioning itself to capitalize on the growing demand for immersive theme park experiences [5] - Roman Co. is engaged in several major projects, including the NBA touring exhibition and the "Oxford Storybook World" immersive experience, which are expected to contribute positively to its future performance [5] 兴业银锡 (Xingye Yinxin) - Xingye Yinxin is positioned as a leading player in the tin market, which is expected to benefit from the increasing demand driven by the semiconductor industry [6] - Supply-side concerns remain due to geopolitical tensions and resource challenges, but these may ease by 2025 [6] Market Trends - The market is witnessing a clear shift from traditional consumption categories ("eating and drinking") to entertainment and leisure activities ("playing and enjoying") [1] - There is a notable rotation in market hotspots, with sectors like rare earths and gaming showing potential for recovery and growth [1] - The overall market environment is becoming more challenging, necessitating a reduction in expectations for future performance [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - Short - term market sentiment eases, and the futures market stabilizes temporarily. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. The raw material ore end is gradually loosening, and the support at the bottom is weakening. It is expected that the short - term futures market will run in a weak range, with the main contract operating between 560,000 - 620,000 yuan. [1] Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is stable, the cost support of refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upward space. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan. [4] Stainless Steel - The futures market returns to the fundamental trading logic. The ore end provides some support for prices, and the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable. The stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan. [7] Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the ore - end growth rate is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. Otherwise, the zinc price may decline. It is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan. [10] Alumina - In the short - term, the alumina fundamentals may turn to a relatively loose pattern, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at around 2,700 yuan. [13] Aluminum - In the short - term, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts support the aluminum price, and the short - term rebound of coal - related prices also supports the cost. However, the increase in aluminum market tariffs and the pre - emptive exports have overdrawn some future demand. It is expected that the domestic aluminum price will face pressure in the future, with the lower reference at around 19,000 yuan. [13] Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", there is no clear trend for the copper price. The strong fundamentals limit the downward space, and the weak macro - expectations limit the upward space. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan. [14] Tin - In the short - term, the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the slow supply - side recovery and the rebound driven by macro - sentiment. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, it is recommended to short after the sentiment stabilizes. [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,250 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 61,700 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 55,700 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. [1] Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month. Battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, up 2.33%. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, down 12.41%. Lithium carbonate demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, lithium carbonate imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%, and exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. [1] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price is 123,900 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,400 yuan/ton, down 2.04%. 1 imported nickel average price is 122,700 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. [4] Fundamental Data - In May, China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In April, refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45% week - on - week. Social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%. [4] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. [7] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 36.00 million tons, unchanged. Stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%, and exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. [7] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The premium is 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. [10] Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. In April, refined zinc imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%, and exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. [10] Alumina Price and Basis - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Henan) average price is 3,302 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,280 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. [13] Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,210 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. SMM A00 aluminum premium is 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic aluminum imports were 2.8 million tons, and exports were 1.37 million tons. [13] Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 85 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic copper imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. [14] Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin average price is 263,900 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. SMM 1 tin premium is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 4.35%. [16] Fundamental Data - In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%. In May, SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. [16]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to seasonal demand weakness and the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar, leading to a significant price drop at the end of May [1][2]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side remains a key focus, with rumors of resumed tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region contributing to price declines. The International Tin Association reported that production in Wa has fully resumed since late April, with the first batch receiving export permits by the end of May [2][3]. - China's tin concentrate imports hit a near-record low in April, with the Democratic Republic of Congo surpassing Myanmar as the largest source of imports. The recovery of Myanmar's production is expected to take time to reach historical capacity levels [2][3]. - As of the end of May, processing fees for tin concentrate in Yunnan and Jiangxi have dropped to their lowest levels in five years, indicating tightening supply affecting smelting profits. The overall refined tin supply may tighten due to reduced imports and ongoing inventory consumption [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Despite some resilience in demand, the overall performance is mixed. The photovoltaic sector shows growth, while the semiconductor industry has seen production increases but faces weakening in end-product demand [3][4]. - The PVC sector is operating at high rates but is experiencing significant losses, and the real estate market remains sluggish, impacting demand for PVC and related products [3][4]. - Domestic tin social inventory continues to decline and is at historically low levels, with increased replenishment willingness observed as prices drop significantly [3][4]. Market Outlook - The outlook for June indicates that while short-term price stabilization may occur, uncertainties regarding tariffs and the anticipated recovery in supply, coupled with marginal demand declines, will likely exert downward pressure on tin prices [2][4].