Core Viewpoint - Indonesia is taking significant measures to combat illegal tin mining, which is expected to impact global tin supply and prices in the coming years [2][3]. Group 1: Tin Production and Market Impact - Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of tin concentrate and refined tin, with an estimated tin concentrate production of approximately 50,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of global production [1][3]. - The crackdown on illegal smelting operations is projected to lead to a 30.7% year-on-year decline in Indonesia's refined tin production in 2024, reaching 49,900 tons, the lowest level in over 20 years, representing 13.4% of global refined tin output [1][3]. - The Indonesian government's actions to close 1,000 illegal tin mines and block smuggling routes could prevent potential losses of up to 22 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 1.2 billion USD) from September to December 2025, and 45 trillion Rupiah (approximately 2.6 billion USD) in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes and Supply Chain Dynamics - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has reverted the RKAB approval process from a three-year to an annual basis, effective from 2026, requiring companies to resubmit new annual production quotas [4]. - The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State is lagging behind expectations, with only about 1,200 tons exported in August, contributing to a continued supply gap in the overall tin market [4]. Group 3: Demand Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for tin is expected to rise significantly due to the increased tin consumption in AI servers, with estimates indicating that a single NVIDIA NVL72GB300 server consumes approximately 4.71 kg of tin, substantially higher than traditional servers [4]. - The annual growth rate of tin consumption in global AI servers is projected to reach 44.5%, with an expected consumption of 34,000 tons by 2030, which could represent 9% of the current global tin demand of 372,700 tons in 2024 [5]. - Long-term prospects for tin prices are optimistic due to limited new supply capacity and growing demand from emerging sectors such as AI, robotics, and steady growth in electric vehicles and photovoltaics [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining is expected to significantly impact global tin supply, with a projected drop in Indonesia's refined tin production by 30.7% in 2024, reaching a 20-year low [2][11] - The demand for tin is anticipated to rise due to the increasing consumption of tin in AI servers, with an expected annual growth rate of 44.5% from 2025 to 2030 [4][18] - The overall tin supply remains tight, with additional pressures from the slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar's Wa region [3][12] Summary by Sections Section 1: Supply Disruption - Indonesia's President ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, potentially avoiding losses of up to 12 billion USD in 2025 and 26 billion USD in 2026 [1] - Indonesia is the second-largest producer of tin, accounting for 16.7% of global tin ore production in 2024, with refined tin production expected to fall to 49,900 tons [2][11] Section 2: Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian government has reverted the RKAB approval process from a three-year to an annual basis, effective from 2026, to enhance compliance and efficiency in the tin industry [3][12] Section 3: Demand Growth - AI servers are projected to significantly increase tin consumption, with Nvidia's NVL72 GB300 server consuming approximately 4.71 kg of tin, which is substantially higher than traditional servers [4][14] - By 2030, global AI server tin consumption is expected to reach 34,000 tons, representing about 9% of the total global tin demand [18][19]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that PT Arsari Tambang, an Indonesian tin mining company, is in discussions to acquire a mining asset in Canada, leveraging a recent economic partnership agreement between Indonesia and Canada [1][2] - The acquisition is valued at approximately 70 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, equivalent to about 422.71 million USD, with plans to complete the transaction by June 2026 [2] - Indonesia is the world's second-largest tin producer, and Arsari Tambang primarily operates in the Bangka-Belitung region, which is a key area for tin production [2] Group 2 - Arsari Tambang's subsidiary, Mitra Stania Prima, is projected to have a tin smelting capacity of 3,811 tons by 2024 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, along with the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, and the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, which may not change the tight supply - demand situation, could lead to wide - range fluctuations in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors mainly wait for price drops to establish long positions, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin at around 260,000 - 265,000 and 290,000 - 300,000 respectively, and those of London tin at around 33,000 - 35,000 and 38,000 - 40,000 respectively [3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both basically within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, the tight domestic tin ore supply - demand situation, and the resumption expectation of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both basically within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai - London tin price is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in the LME. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [11] - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the social inventory of tin ingots in China, the inventory of refined tin in the LME, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad have all decreased compared to last week [13] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates has been oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [19][20] - Multiple factors such as the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia, the commissioning of a new plant in Namibia, the resumption of mines in Myanmar and Congo, and the suspension of tin ore transit exports in Thailand may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production and import volume of domestic tin ore in October [22] - The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [24] - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has increased (remained flat) compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on its smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month [28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month. The new tin smelter in the US and the planned production and export increase in Indonesia are the reasons [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month [43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries has increased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][46]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming six months [6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company processed 221,581 tonnes of ore, a 32% increase quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the resumption of operations after temporary shutdowns in Q2 2025 [1][7]. - Tin production reached 5,190 tonnes in Q3 2025, marking a 26% increase from the previous quarter and a 6% increase year-on-year, aligning closely with the quarterly production target of 5,000 tonnes [1][7]. - The average tin price achieved in Q3 2025 was $33,877 per tonne, reflecting a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 7% increase year-on-year [2][7]. Production and Financial Performance - The unit sustaining cost for Q3 2025 was $15,900 per tonne, down 3% from the previous quarter, as production rates returned to normal following prior disruptions [2][7]. - The expected EBITDA for Q3 2025 is $96 million, which is 28% higher than the actual value of $75 million in the previous quarter, driven by increased tin production and sales [3][7]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a cash balance of $57 million, down from $110 million on June 30, 2025, due to tax payments and dividend distributions [3]. Production Guidance - The company anticipates producing approximately 5,000 tonnes of tin in Q4 2025, raising the total tin production forecast for 2025 to between 18,000 and 18,500 tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 17,500 tonnes [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a positive trend, with the main contract for tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opening at 280,200.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 287,780.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 3.07% [1] - Supply-side factors indicate a tight market, with slow recovery in the Wa State and low processing fees domestically, leading to losses for smelters and reduced raw material inventories [1] - Demand for tin is showing resilience due to structural support from sectors like artificial intelligence and new energy, despite overall demand not experiencing a strong rebound [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's minutes indicating a preference for continued easing, with some officials supporting the decision to not lower interest rates in September [2] - Indonesia's President has ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, which may exacerbate supply tensions, while imports from Myanmar are showing signs of improvement due to mining permit approvals [2] - Domestic tin supply remains constrained, particularly in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, with low operating rates and a decline in domestic inventories observed [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of risk assets, particularly in the metals sector, has been strong during the National Day holiday, driven by expectations of overseas liquidity easing and supply concerns in the tin market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the holiday, LME tin prices rose by 2.95%, while domestic Shanghai tin futures increased by 2.99%, reaching a six-month high of 287,090 yuan/ton [1]. - The tightening supply of tin, exacerbated by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, has contributed to the upward price movement [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's strict enforcement against illegal mining is aimed at better controlling its tin industry, with the closure of many small illegal mining operations. Major tin smelting companies in Indonesia are expected to remain unaffected due to their stable supply channels [1]. - The Indonesian Tin Exporters Association (ITEA) projects that refined tin exports will rise from 45,000 tons in 2024 to approximately 53,000 tons, indicating that the recent regulatory actions will not significantly impact exports [1]. Group 3: Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic tin production is set to resume as Yunnan Tin ends maintenance, and most smelting plants maintained normal operations during the holiday. Additionally, transportation of tin from Myanmar is gradually recovering, suggesting a slight increase in overall supply [1]. - Post-holiday, the operating rate of downstream tin processing enterprises is expected to remain stable, although colder weather and lower-than-usual Christmas order volumes may keep the operating rates steady in the fourth quarter [1]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The expectation of high interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is favorable for risk assets, while new regulations in Indonesia to shorten mining quota validity from three years to one year will effectively control tin supply [2]. - The LME inventory has decreased again, and fluctuations in the 0-3 structure indicate ongoing liquidity concerns, which may further stimulate tin prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is neutral, with a price range of 270,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the LME tin price soared by over 4%, reaching a high of $37,695. The recent main factor affecting tin prices is Indonesia's plan to close 1,000 illegal tin mines. However, it is currently believed that the probability of continuous price increases is low [5] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was $8/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 300 yuan/ton [9] - Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14] 1.2 Spread - This week, the inter - monthly structure of tin changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17] 1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory decreased by 563 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 523 tons [23] - This week, LME inventory increased by 270 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rose to 15.5% [28] 1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the funds invested in SHFE tin were 1,561,140,000 yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in an inflow direction [33] 1.5 Trading Volume and Open Interest - This week, the trading volume of SHFE tin decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly [35] - This week, the trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the open interest continued to decline [41] 1.6 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE tin increased slightly [46] 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, the import volume was 10,267 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [50] - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore increased slightly [51] 2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [53] - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 30.13%, a slight increase from last week [55] 2.3 Import - In August 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,296 tons, exports were 1,640 tons, resulting in a net export of 344 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 501 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 15,038 yuan/ton [60] 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption Volume - In August 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 15,843 tons [68] 3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fees decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises increased to 73.2% in August. The production and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises decreased slightly in July [70] 3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products varied. The output of integrated circuits decreased, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly [77] - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [79] - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased, in line with the performance of tin prices [84]

Group 1 - The Indonesia Tin Exporters Association estimates that the country's refined tin exports will increase from 45,000 tons in 2024 to approximately 53,000 tons this year [2] - Some smelters in Bangka-Belitung are resuming operations after being interrupted due to corruption investigations, which will support export shipments [2] - The government's crackdown on illegal mining activities in Bangka-Belitung is not expected to disrupt transportation [2] Group 2 - LME tin and Shanghai tin prices have surged following President Prabowo Subianto's order to close 1,000 illegal mining sites in Sumatra [2] - Approximately 80% of tin production in Bangka-Belitung was previously smuggled abroad through various channels, which have now been completely blocked [2] - The government’s restructuring actions have not disrupted production activities, with companies holding mining quotas continuing to meet their targets [2][3]