Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has imposed fines on mining companies operating illegally in forest areas as part of efforts to protect forests from illegal logging [1] Group 1: Fines Imposed - Nickel miners found illegally logging forests will face fines of 6.5 billion Indonesian Rupiah per hectare [1] - Bauxite miners will incur fines of 1.76 billion Indonesian Rupiah per hectare [1] - Tin miners will be fined 1.25 billion Indonesian Rupiah per hectare [1] - Coal operators will face fines of 354 million Indonesian Rupiah per hectare [1] Group 2: Enforcement and Compliance - A government forestry task force, composed of military personnel and law enforcement officials, will collect fines based on investigation results [1] - Earlier this week, the task force ordered dozens of palm oil plantation and mining companies to pay a total of 38.62 trillion Indonesian Rupiah in fines for illegal operations in forest areas [1]

Industry Analysis and Outlook on Tin Key Points Industry Overview - Domestic hidden inventory of tin is continuously depleting, with an expected peak gap of approximately 15,000 tons by July 2025, indicating a tight supply situation that is unlikely to ease in the short term, thus supporting tin prices [1][2] - Myanmar's tin mines are expected to gradually resume operations starting August 2025, with production anticipated to reach around 1,500 tons by November, but the recovery pace is slow, and the supply gap will only improve by about 2,000 tons by year-end, which is insufficient for a relaxed supply state [1][3] Supply Forecast - Global tin supply is expected to become more relaxed in 2026, with Myanmar's production potentially recovering to between 26,000 tons and 32,000 tons, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports possibly reaching between 65,000 tons and 72,000 tons, while Africa also has production potential, albeit with uncertainties due to policy and investment environments [1][5][10] - The active replenishment demand in the supply chain will absorb some raw material increments, meaning that even if raw material increments reach between 16,000 tons and 30,000 tons, the actual increase in smelting output may be reduced by about 10,000 tons, potentially affecting market supply-demand balance [1][8] Policy and Market Dynamics - Indonesia's tin mining policy adjustments, including foreign exchange controls, quota regulations, and anti-smuggling measures, may lead to a gradual decline in overall supply stability as the world's second-largest tin ingot supplier, necessitating ongoing attention to long-term impacts [1][9] - The political and investment environment in Africa presents significant uncertainties for long-term supply, despite the region's potential for increased production due to low extraction costs and high grades [1][10] Demand Trends - Tin demand is primarily concentrated in consumer products such as electronic solder (40%) and packaging materials (10%), with a strong correlation to economic cycles. Emerging demand areas include electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI servers, but their current market share remains limited [1][13][14] - Global tin demand growth is projected to slow to around 3% in 2025, with a potential range of -1% to 1% in 2026, indicating a cautious outlook for demand in the coming years [1][18][19] Price Dynamics - The relationship between supply and prices is expected to remain constrained, with new products and applications driving higher demand elasticity. Annual supply-demand balance and mismatches will be more significant for price assessments, with macroeconomic factors playing a substantial role in pricing [1][21][22] - Seasonal price increases typically occur at year-end due to reduced supply from major producing countries during the Chinese New Year and increased pre-holiday stocking by downstream enterprises [1][23] Regional Insights - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has experienced supply disruptions due to conflict, but major mines remain largely unaffected. The establishment of new smelting facilities by the U.S. is expected to improve local production conditions [1][27] - South American tin production is projected to be stable, with Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil producing approximately 33,000 tons, 21,000 tons, and 19,000 tons respectively in 2024, although economic and operational uncertainties may impact stability [1][30] Conclusion - The tin industry faces a complex landscape of supply constraints, policy changes, and evolving demand dynamics. Investors should remain vigilant regarding market fluctuations and potential risks associated with geopolitical factors and economic cycles.

Core Viewpoint - Recent tin prices have reached new highs due to tight supply and macroeconomic expectations, with Shanghai futures hitting 323,000 yuan per ton, a 28% increase year-to-date [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts highlight that tin supply remains a core concern, with slow recovery in Myanmar's Wa State mines and a significant drop in Indonesia's refined tin exports in October, leading to continued supply constraints [2] - The geopolitical conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo is causing logistical disruptions and rising costs, limiting tin imports [2] - Tin is currently one of the most scarce non-ferrous metals, with low static reserve-to-production ratios globally and in China, indicating sustainability challenges [2] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The global supply of tin is under pressure from resource depletion and regulatory changes in major producing countries like Indonesia and Myanmar, which are facing declining grades and increased extraction difficulties [3] - Demand for tin is primarily driven by emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and semiconductors, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% for solder demand from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Traditional demand is expected to benefit from global fiscal and monetary easing, with an estimated CAGR of 4.3% for global tin demand from 2024 to 2030 [3] Industry Performance - Companies in the tin industry have reported significant profit growth due to rising tin prices, with several listed companies in the A-share market benefiting from the upward trend [5] - Xiyu Tin Industry reported a revenue of 34.417 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 17.81% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.745 billion yuan, up 35.99% [6] - Xingye Silver Tin reported a revenue of 4.099 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 24.36% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.364 billion yuan, up 4.94% [6] Strategic Insights - Companies are optimistic about the future of the tin industry, citing tightening policies in Southeast Asia and the strategic importance of tin resources [7] - The demand for tin is expected to grow due to the recovery of the global economy and the rapid development of emerging industries such as semiconductors and photovoltaics [7]

异动点评：降息预期走强以及供应侧扰动，锡价偏 强震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 寇帝斯（投资咨询资格编号：Z0021810） 2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 电话：020-88818037 邮箱：koudisi@gf.com.cn 行情导读：受美国降息预期走强以及刚果（金）东部地区地缘冲突持续升级影响，锡价自 11 月末持续上涨，12 月 4 日沪锡主力合约最多上涨 4.64%至 323700 元/吨。 驱动分析一：美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少，市场对 12 月降息预期走强 12 月 3 日最新发布的 ADP 全美就业报告显示，美国私营部门在 11 月削减了 3.2 万个 工作岗位，创下自 2023 年 3 月以来的最大降幅，且远低于市场此前预期的增加 4 万个。 这一意外萎缩的数据，凸显在美联储货币政策面临关键转向的节点，劳动力市场所承受的 压力正在加剧。 当日，美国商务部长卢特尼克接受媒体采访，驳斥了前总统特朗普的关税政策导致 11 月就业下滑的说法。他将就业收缩归因于近期联邦政府停摆对小企业运营造成的临时性冲 击，同时指出大规模遣返非法移民的政策也在一定程度上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have surged significantly, reaching a peak of 323,700 yuan/ton, the highest since April 2022, before retracting slightly. The main contract closed up 2.23% at 316,230 yuan/ton, driven by supply-demand imbalances in the tin market and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [1]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The core logic supporting the rise in tin prices is the supply-demand imbalance, with the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region lagging behind expectations and renewed supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) exacerbating the global tin shortage [1]. - Tin ingot exports from Indonesia have largely returned to normal, with over 6,500 tons exported in November [1]. - Ongoing conflicts in the eastern DRC have heightened concerns about supply chain stability and increased logistics risks [1]. Group 2: Demand Trends - In early November, there was a notable decline in downstream consumption, with photovoltaic demand remaining stable but production expectations for home appliances in December significantly lower than November [2]. - Downstream enterprises reported a marked decrease in order volumes and slower inventory turnover, with many companies adopting a cautious approach to high prices and refraining from large-scale stocking [2]. - Overall consumption this year has slightly decreased compared to previous years, contributing to a weak supply-demand scenario [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent unexpected drop in U.S. ADP data has led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates, causing the U.S. dollar index to fall below 99, which has positively impacted the overall non-ferrous metals market [2]. - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to shift focus back to policy expectations, influencing market dynamics [2]. - While tensions in the eastern DRC continue to raise supply concerns, the market has already priced in some of these risks, indicating that new catalysts will be needed to further drive prices upward [2].

12月3日，沪锡期货主力2601合约日盘高开高走，盘中最高触及31.41万元/吨，涨幅达2.72%，创下2022 年5月以来新高；收盘报31.23万元/吨，上涨2.15%。自今年6月启动上涨行情以来，沪锡主力合约累计 涨幅已攀升至23.3%。 此轮锡价上行主要受矿端供应收缩与宏观预期改善双重驱动。供应端方面，缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度显著 慢于市场预期，当地锡精矿出口量持续处于低位，加剧了市场对原料短缺的担忧；宏观层面，美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.2%（据CME FedWatch工具），宽松政策预期升温对大宗商品整体形 成提振。此外，新兴领域需求的快速增长为锡价提供了坚实支撑。当前锡消费结构中，半导体与消费电 子仍是锡焊料的核心应用场景——作为锡消费占比超65%的主力领域，半导体行业的景气度回升直接拉 动了锡焊料需求。据半导体行业协会（SIA）最新数据，2024年全球半导体销售额达6276亿美元，较 2023年的5268亿美元大幅增长19.1%；机构预测，2025年半导体封装用锡焊料需求增速将进一步攀升至 5%-7%，成为锡价中长期的重要支撑因素。 现货市场同步走强，锡均价站稳30万元/吨关口，W ...

受非洲锡矿端供应扰动加剧，市场对原料供应收缩的预期持续发酵，叠加美联储降息预期抬升，沪锡盘 初大幅飙升，主力合约一度涨近4%，最高上探313700元/吨，创三年半新高。随后价格迅速回落，涨幅 明显收窄，截止收盘主力合约收涨1.68%，报306580元/吨。 近期非洲锡矿主产区地缘局势急剧升级，刚果（金）东部北基伍省、南基伍省、伊图里省及上韦莱省等 核心锡矿富集区域深陷武装冲突，安全局势持续恶化。从产业影响来看，当前全球第三大锡矿刚果 （金）Bisie 矿的开采生产暂未受到直接波及，但市场对供应链风险的担忧已显著升温。市场普遍预 期，冲突区域的物流运输网络将面临中断风险，矿石运输的时间成本与安全成本或将大幅攀升，进而对 全球锡矿供应链的稳定性构成严峻挑战。 进入四季度，锡下游消费端逐步步入传统淡季，整体需求延续弱势运行格局。从当前下游实际消费表现 及终端企业排产数据来看，今年消费强度较往年同期出现明显下滑。终端需求层面，无论是锡的传统消 费领域，还是新兴消费品类，均呈现不同程度的需求收缩。尽管半导体行业受益于 AI 算力扩张，对锡 需求形成一定增量支撑，但受限于当前该领域需求规模，其对整体消费的拉动作用相对有限 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Huaxi Nonferrous Metals Industry Overview - **Antimony Market**: China dominates the global antimony supply, controlling approximately 50% of production and 70-80% of smelting. The market is currently experiencing a split due to export controls, leading to domestic oversupply and overseas shortages. [2][4][5] - **Tin Market**: The tin market is expected to experience a long-term bullish trend over the next 3-5 years, driven by continuous global demand and supply challenges. The supply growth has been stagnant for the past decade, with new mining developments lagging behind. [2][6][8] Key Insights - **Antimony Price Trends**: Following the easing of export controls, domestic antimony prices have risen to over 170,000 CNY, while overseas prices have decreased to around 350,000 CNY. Future price increases will depend on the stabilization of overseas prices. [2][5] - **Tin Demand Drivers**: Tin is increasingly in demand due to its applications in electronics and semiconductors. The semiconductor industry's recovery is expected to boost sales by 15-20% in 2025, with a significant reduction in inventory levels. [2][9] - **Strategic Importance of Antimony**: Antimony is recognized for its strategic importance, particularly in military applications. The government is likely to implement policies to stabilize prices and enhance profitability for antimony producers. [4][7] Company Positioning - **Huaxi Nonferrous Metals**: The company is positioned to benefit from both antimony and tin markets, with plans to increase production by approximately 15% in 2026 and nearly 40% by 2027. The company aims to consolidate regional resources and expand its project portfolio. [3][11][12] - **Future Growth Potential**: By 2030, the company anticipates an additional demand of over 70,000 tons driven by AI and semiconductor recovery, while facing a significant supply gap. This positions Huaxi Nonferrous Metals favorably for long-term growth. [12] Additional Considerations - **Supply Constraints**: The global tin supply is critically low, with reserves expected to last only about 14 years. This scarcity, combined with increasing demand from new technologies, is likely to keep tin prices elevated. [8] - **Impact of Wa State**: The Wa State's policies are expected to influence global tin supply, but current high prices have not sufficiently incentivized rapid production recovery. [10] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the antimony and tin markets, the strategic positioning of Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and the broader implications for the industry.

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持...... 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 新能源&有色组行业锡年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 策略摘要 2025 年下半年以来，佤邦雨季致复产及出口不及预期，进口矿加工费跌至 1.1 万，供应端干扰仍存。而需求则是在"十五五"规划相关板块的刺激下或将 呈现逐步转强的情况，价格重心预计在 2026 年仍将上行。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 价格展望： 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规 划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持震荡偏强格局，高点或触及 37 万元 /吨至 38 万元/吨区间。 矿端：2025 下半年锡精矿"紧平衡"难破：佤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a structural shift with rising prices and demand driven by AI and traditional sectors, while supply remains constrained due to resource depletion and geopolitical factors [2][4][54]. Group 1: Tin Market Overview - Since 2020, tin prices have increased, leading to improved industry profitability and a current PE ratio at the 21st percentile over the past five years [2]. - Tin is one of the most scarce non-ferrous metals, with a global static reserve-to-production ratio of only 16 years in 2024, indicating a tight supply situation [3][7]. - Major tin resources are concentrated in a few regions, with high development levels, and many supply areas have static reserve-to-production ratios below 22 years [4][7]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - AI-driven demand for computing infrastructure and smart devices, along with the electrification of vehicles, is expected to accelerate tin solder demand, projected to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2030 [3][12]. - Traditional demand is anticipated to benefit from global monetary easing and the increasing need for "strategic stockpiles" amid geopolitical tensions, with overall global tin demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% from 2024 to 2030 [3][13]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Key producing regions like China, Indonesia, and Myanmar face significant supply challenges, including declining reserves and frequent disruptions [4][28][38]. - China's tin reserves have decreased by 52% from 2001 to 2024, with a static reserve-to-production ratio dropping to 14 years [28][29]. - Indonesia's tin industry is grappling with resource depletion and regulatory changes that exacerbate supply disruptions, while Myanmar's production has been severely impacted by operational halts [38][45]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The tin price is expected to rise due to supply constraints and improving demand, with projections indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario from 2025 to 2030 [54][61]. - The global tin supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% from 2024 to 2030, while demand is expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.3% during the same period [61][63]. - The industry faces rising costs due to declining ore grades and inflationary pressures, which may further elevate the incentive prices for new projects [63][64].