2025 年 4 月 29 日 总量研究 关注三类资产 ——2025 年 5 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 要点 4 月 A 股港股市场有所回落 4月港股市场波动明显。4月受海外风险事件扰动、国内政策预期升温等因素影 响，港股市场整体走势震荡，出现较大幅度波动。截至2025年4月25日，恒生香 港35、恒生综合指数、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为 -3.3%、-4.5%、-4.9%、-5.1%、-7.6%。 A股观点：或震荡上行，关注三类资产 政策的持续支持以及中长期资金积极流入背景下， A 股市场有望震荡上行。当 前 A 股市场的估值处于 2010 年以来的均值附近，而随着政策的积极发力，中长 期资金带来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托底，A 股市场有望 震荡上行。 配置方向上，关注三类资产。方向一：稳定类资产，如高股息、黄金。稳定类资 产能够在市场面临不确定时提供确定性。方向二：产业链自主可控。在"双循环" 新发展格局和全球产业链重构的双重驱动下，国产替代相关机会也值得关注。方 向三：内需消费。海外政策可能长期处于不确定性的背景下，内需板块值得长期 关注。 港股观点：关注"哑 ...

市场表现方面，社保基金重仓股今年以来平均下跌0.04%，涨幅跑赢沪指。具体个股看，双林股份 （300100）累计涨幅176.77%，表现最好，一品红（300723）、震裕科技（300953）等分别上涨 130.95%、111.09%位居其后；跌幅最大的是德科立，累计下跌43.93%。（数据宝） 社保基金重仓股排行榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 社保基金家数 | 社保基金持股量（万股） | 环比（%） | 占流通股比例（%） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002027 | 分众传媒 | 2 | 29566.04 | 4.07 | 2.05 | 传媒 | | 601128 | 常熟银行 | 4 | 26840.05 | 不变 | 8.90 | 银行 | | 600256 | 广汇能源 | 3 | 23627.40 | -8.54 | 3.60 | 石油石化 | | 601668 | 中国建筑 | 1 | 20517.00 | 不变 | 0.50 | 建筑装饰 | | 000629 | 钒钛股份 | 1 | 19963.32 | -4.94 | ...

主力资金净流出的行业有29个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，今日下跌0.44%，全天净流出资金 31.04亿元，其次是汽车行业，今日跌幅为1.59%，净流出资金为25.16亿元，净流出资金较多的还有机 械设备、医药生物、非银金融等行业。 今日各行业资金流向 | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | 0.53 | 2.00 | 商贸零售 | -1.49 | -8.02 | | 石油石化 | -0.03 | 0.67 | 农林牧渔 | -1.20 | -8.02 | | 轻工制造 | -1.25 | -0.22 | 有色金属 | -0.46 | -9.32 | | 建筑材料 | -1.57 | -1.69 | 通信 | -0.75 | -10.19 | | 传媒 | 0.02 | -1.79 | 国防军工 | -1.06 | -10.38 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.90 | -1.90 | 食品饮料 | -0.38 | -10.45 | | 美容护理 | ...

Group 1: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - OPEC+ members are likely to propose accelerating oil production in June, leading to increased supply pressure on crude oil [1][2] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.15% and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.39% during the specified period [2] - Domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil prices through upstream and downstream integration and diversifying their oil and gas sources [1][5] Group 2: Fluorochemical Industry - National subsidies are driving domestic demand growth, with refrigerant prices continuing to rise [3][4] - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants is decreasing, while the increase in third-generation refrigerant quotas is limited, leading to a tight supply situation [4] - The demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong due to robust growth in the home appliance and automotive sectors, supported by national subsidy policies [3][5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly the "Big Three" oil companies: China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, due to their strong earnings resilience [1][5] - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resources are recommended for investment [5] - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook on inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals [5]

| 属 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 23.27 | -10.64 | 1.33 | -0.75 | -10.19 | | 国防军 | 13.44 | -14.05 | 1.25 | -1.06 | -10.38 | | 工 | | | | | | | 食品饮 | 20.45 | -4.78 | 2.28 | -0.38 | -10.45 | | 料 | | | | | | | 房地产 | 51.63 | -18.02 | 2.37 | -3.66 | -15.54 | | 公用事 | 70.72 | 13.03 | 1.79 | 0.39 | -18.36 | | 业 | | | | | | | 电力设 | 47.36 | 5.45 | 1.93 | -0.59 | -18.40 | | 备 | | | | | | | 计算机 | 56.99 | -0.84 | 3.22 | -0.54 | -20.01 | | 非银金 | 33.17 | -11.39 | 0.79 | -0.67 | -21.94 | | 融 | | | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.20% on April 28, with five sectors rising, led by banking and steel, which increased by 0.98% and 0.53% respectively [1] - The real estate and comprehensive sectors experienced the largest declines, down by 3.66% and 2.52% respectively [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a slight decrease of 0.03% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 29.894 billion yuan, with only two sectors seeing net inflows: steel with 200 million yuan and oil and petrochemicals with 66.93 million yuan [1] - The electronics sector had the largest net outflow, totaling 3.104 billion yuan, followed by the automotive sector with a net outflow of 2.516 billion yuan [1] Oil and Petrochemical Sector Details - Within the oil and petrochemical sector, there are 48 stocks, with 9 rising and 36 falling, including one hitting the daily limit down [2] - The top net inflow stocks in this sector included China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with 53.071 million yuan, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) with 50.902 million yuan, and Huajin Chemical with 44.7347 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included ST Xinchao with 39.0339 million yuan, Intercontinental Oil and Gas with 22.5732 million yuan, and Bohai Chemical with 17.033 million yuan [2][3]

市场情绪自3月20日持续调整，于4月18日下降至低点，数值为0.1。本周市场情绪指标在接近0轴处开始向上反弹，回升至0.5，数值较上周五(4/18)上升0.4，模型转多，市场 情绪有所缓和。 本周A股市场提示市场情绪有一定修复，较上周明显发生变化的指标有科创50成交占比、主力买入力量和期权波动率。主力流出速率减缓和VIX指标体现的恐慌程度减弱是本 周市场情绪回升的主要原因。 科创50成交占比、行业涨跌趋势性、主力买入力量和PCR结合VIX，分别代表了市场风险偏好程度下降，市场情绪不确定性增强，主力流出速度 减缓和期权市场恐慌情绪缓和。其他指标维持和上周一致的判断。 资金当前对成长高估值板块观点不确定性较强。 自上周科创50成交占比指标快速下跌至下轨以下后，本周科创50成交占比指标仍在持续下降。本周主力资金持续从科创板块 流出，累计净流出超过32亿人民币。 投资者信心逐渐恢复，市场的活跃度和投资者参与度都有了明显提升。 除了看到主力资金本周流出科创板，主力资金本周在全A仍然呈现净流出的态势，但流出速度较上周有 所减缓，主力流出主力买入力量指标有所回升。从主力资金净流出绝对量看，主力资金本周累计净流出超过370亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - OPEC+ members are showing an increased willingness to raise production, leading to heightened supply pressure on crude oil [6]. - The domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through integrated operations and diversifying energy sources [7]. - The fluorochemical sector is benefiting from national subsidies driving domestic demand, with refrigerant prices continuing to rise [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - OPEC+ is expected to suggest accelerating oil production in June, increasing supply pressure [6]. - Recent data shows WTI crude futures fell by 2.15% and Brent crude by 1.39% [6]. - Geopolitical discussions between the US and Russia regarding a ceasefire are ongoing, which may impact oil supply dynamics [6]. Fluorochemicals - National subsidies are expected to boost domestic demand, particularly in the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6]. - The production of second-generation refrigerants is set to decrease, while the growth in third-generation refrigerants is limited, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market conditions, suggesting potential for upward movement in the industry index [7].

以板块分布统计，社保基金持有个股中，主板有345只，创业板有81只，科创板有57只。所属行业来 看，社保基金持股主要集中在医药生物、基础化工、机械设备行业，分别有55只、43只、41只个股上 榜。 财报季，社保基金持股动向曝光！去年四季度末社保基金共现身483只个股前十大流通股东榜，新进141 只，增持130只。 证券时报 数据宝统计显示，社保基金最新出现在483只个股前十大流通股东名单中，合计持股量89.61亿 股，期末持股市值合计1423.83亿元。持股变动显示，不变88只，减持124只，新进141只，增持130只。 社保基金重仓股中，从前十大流通股东名单中社保基金家数来看，共有5只股获4家社保基金集中现身， 持股量居前的是常熟银行、太阳纸业、海信视像，持股量分别是有26840.05万股、15946.33万股、 7523.57万股。 从持股比例看，社保基金持有比例最多的是常熟银行，持股量占流通股比例为8.90%，其次是科锐国 际，社保基金持股比例为7.94%，持股比例居前的还有明泰铝业、英科再生、登康口腔等。持股数量方 面，社保基金持股数量在1亿股以上的共有15只，社保基金持股量最多的是常熟银行，共持有2 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The industry is significantly influenced by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in oil prices, with a recommendation to focus on quarterly earnings reports and companies with stable dividend policies [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and the resilience of energy companies [2][10] - The mid-to-long-term investment themes include sustained high oil prices, growth in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of April 27, the SW basic chemical sector's TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 21.45, at the 56.30% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.76, at the 8.83% historical percentile [2][10] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector's TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 10.41, at the 9.89% historical percentile, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.16, at the 0.93% historical percentile [2][10] - The report notes a significant impact from tariff policies and oil price volatility, suggesting a focus on quarterly earnings and companies with robust dividend policies [2][10] Price Trends - In the week of April 21-27, 17 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 58 experienced declines, and 25 remained stable [9][34] - The average price of polymer MDI increased by 6.01% week-on-week, reaching 15,000 CNY/ton, although it is down 10.18% year-on-year [36] - The average price of vitamins decreased, with vitamin A down 9.33% week-on-week and vitamin E down 6.09% week-on-week [34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others with strong dividend policies and growth potential in new materials [2][10] - Specific stocks highlighted for April include Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology, both showing strong performance metrics [11][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies' performance elasticity and high-growth sub-industries, particularly in the context of policy support for demand recovery [2][10]