证券研究报告 | 季度宏观经济报告 | 中国宏观 季度宏观经济报告 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 15 日 中美缓和窗口期风险偏好助力科技牛 ——2025 年 Q2 宏观形势展望 核心观点 二季度大类资产的核心取决于风险偏好。 权益市场方面，考虑到中美关系正处于关键性转折节点，有望走向阶段性缓和，风险 偏好将成为市场主线。预计二季度，我方将同美国新政府加强对话沟通。两国元首的 潜在会晤前，预计股票市场将持续保持高风险偏好，科技成长将有较好表现。 债券市场方面，政策端最大的边际变化大概率来自央行防止资金空转的指引告一段 落，利率可能拐头向下。 展望全年，中美小阳春或货币政策大幅宽松有望驱动我国出现股债双牛行情，但过程 中可能略有反复，风险偏好的修复并非一蹴而就，我国可能在中美关系以及国内政策 应对波折的考验后迎来一轮股债双牛。 ❑ 中国经济：开门红后经济小幅下探 我们认为，二季度产业政策将进一步加快落实两会部署，首先是鼓励创新支持新 质生产力，培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G 等未来产业。鼓励创新需要 支持新产品在新场景中大规模落地，开展新技术新产品新场景大规模应用示范行 动是推动科技创新和产业创新融 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the early occurrence and low intensity of the "late spring cold" phenomenon in March, which is unusual as it affected regions like Henan and Shandong [2][3][23] - The "late spring cold" typically occurs between March and May, with a significant drop in average temperatures below the seasonal norm, impacting agricultural production [2][4][10] - This year's "late spring cold" was noted for its early onset, being the earliest in nearly a decade, and lasted only three days, with temperature drops of 6-12°C, which is less severe than the historical average of around 15°C [2][11][24] Group 2 - The impact on agricultural prices is expected to be limited, as the "late spring cold" occurred before the flowering period of fruit trees, thus minimizing potential disruptions to fruit production [4][25][26] - Historical data indicates that previous "late spring cold" events during flowering periods led to significant price increases in fruits, but this year's timing suggests a lower risk of such price spikes [4][14][25] - Vegetable production is less affected by minimum temperatures and more by average temperatures; this year's average temperatures are close to seasonal norms, indicating manageable risks for vegetable supply [4][15][26] Group 3 - The construction industry experienced a noticeable decline in activity due to the cold weather, particularly in North and Central China, where temperatures fell below the suitable range for outdoor work [6][18][27] - The construction sector's slowdown may temporarily impact infrastructure investment, but a forecasted temperature rise later in March could mitigate long-term effects [6][19][27] - The cold weather also indirectly affected consumer movement and spending, but the overall risk to retail sales remains low due to the short duration of the cold spell and the relatively stable consumer activity in higher retail share regions [6][20][27]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment data indicates a slowdown in private sector job growth, raising concerns among economists and investors about the overall economic environment [2][4]. Employment Data Summary - In February, the ADP reported an increase of 77,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 140,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 186,000, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 [2]. - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the services sector, particularly in trade, transportation, utilities, education, and healthcare [2]. - Employment changes by sector in February: - Trade/Transportation/Utilities: Decreased by 33,000 jobs, following an increase of 56,000 in January [2]. - Construction: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 3,000 in January [2]. - Professional/Business Services: Increased by 27,000 jobs, compared to 14,000 in January [2]. - Manufacturing: Increased by 18,000 jobs, reversing a decrease of 13,000 in January [2]. - Financial Services: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 13,000 in January [2]. Economic Outlook - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that uncertainty in policy and a slowdown in consumer spending may have contributed to the recent layoffs and hiring hesitance [4]. - The rising number of unemployment claims and concerns about future unemployment rates are indicative of a cooling labor market [4]. - Market attention is focused on the upcoming government non-farm payroll report, which could further confirm fears of an economic slowdown and influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [4][5]. - Economists expect the non-farm payroll report to show an increase of 153,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for February returned above the threshold, indicating a relatively good state of manufacturing prosperity, with the average PMI for January and February overall better than in 2024 [1][3] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for February is 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [2][3] - The average PMI for January and February is 49.65%, which is higher than the 49.15% in the same period of 2024, reflecting a better recent manufacturing climate [3] Economic Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand sides of the economy are performing well in the short term, with a potential short-term rebound in PPI readings [4] - The production index for February is 52.5%, up 2.7 percentage points from last month, and the average operating rate for six major industrial sectors is 71.0%, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing industries, 7 have PMIs above the threshold, with the equipment manufacturing sector performing relatively well, such as electrical machinery at 57.1% and automotive manufacturing at 53.1% [5] - Conversely, some low-value-added industries are underperforming, such as non-metallic mineral products at 43.4% and petroleum processing at 42.6% [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for February is 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, driven mainly by seasonal recovery in the construction industry [6] - The service sector PMI decreased to 50.0%, while the construction PMI increased to 52.7%, indicating a seasonal rebound in construction activities post-Spring Festival [6] Future Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance is benefiting from previous consumption-boosting policies, tariff expectations, and the concentrated issuance of special bonds in the fourth quarter [7] - Future attention should be paid to the details of macro policies from the Two Sessions, the effects of consumption promotion on large items, and the impact of tariffs on exports [7]

Core Viewpoint - The February PMI shows a mild recovery post-Spring Festival, with a clear "strong-weak" differentiation in structure [2][9]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery, albeit moderate [5][16]. - Key sub-indices such as production and new orders showed significant recovery, with production index increasing by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5% and new orders index rising by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1% [5][16]. - The new export orders index remains in contraction at 48.6%, despite a 2.2 percentage point increase [5][17]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%, with construction PMI showing a notable rise of 3.4 percentage points to 52.7% [5][18]. - Service sector PMI declined by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, with significant drops in consumer-related sectors such as retail, accommodation, and catering [4][19]. Industry Observations - Capital-intensive industries like high-tech and equipment manufacturing show higher PMI levels, while labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries remain below the expansion threshold [3][12]. - In the construction sector, the increase in the construction PMI indicates accelerated infrastructure work, while real estate performance appears weaker [3][13]. Future Outlook - The economic recovery foundation remains fragile, with potential export risks increasing. Continuous monitoring of incremental policy changes is necessary [4][15]. - The manufacturing PMI's slight recovery above the neutral line suggests a moderate recovery level, with ongoing export pressures evident [4][15].

证券代码：002061 证券简称：浙江交科 公告编号：2025-011 浙江交通科技股份有限公司 2024年第四季度建筑业经营情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管 指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》等相关规定，浙江交通科技股份有限公司（以下 简称"公司"）现将子公司浙江交工集团股份有限公司（以下简称"浙江交工"） 2024 年第四季度建筑业经营情况简报如下： 一、订单情况 1. 项目概况 | 第四季度 | | 第四季度 | | 本年累计新中标 | | 本年累计新中标 | | 截至报告期末历年累 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新中标且签约项目 | | 新中标未签约项目 | | 且签约项目 | | 未签约项目 | | 计已签约未完工项目 | | | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | 数量 | 金额 | | （个） | （亿元） | ...

感谢新浪财经，给出一个这样的机会，让二级市场投资和研究的同行们可以在年底相聚在一起。在现在这个行业的冬天，我想跟 大家分享一些我最近的思考，研究和心得体会。 最近有一件让我特别开心的事情，就是李子柒的回归。2021年李子柒停更后，基本上资本市场就进入了熊市，她现在一回来，市场碰巧也热了不少，希望 这是冥冥注定的巧合。 我是李子柒的长期粉丝。为什么我喜欢李子柒？ 首先因为我跟李子柒一样，也是园艺爱好者，我也自己打理花园。这是我的花园，我认为我的花园也很好看。 我也喜欢做美食，以前我甚至自称 陆家嘴李子柒 我在打理花园的过程中，发现养花跟投资其实非常相似，有很多共通的地方。 第一个共通点是： 颜值最高的花在冬天都特别丑，这就类似于强周期行业，有可能实现暴利的行业，周期底部都特别惨。 花园爱好者都知道有三种颜值特别高的花，被称为花园三宝：月季、绣球和铁线莲。图左边是铁线莲是冬天的样子，很像已经枯死。大部分新手看到那个 状态，会把它扔掉，实际上它并没有死掉，春天它重新恢复生机会变成右图那样的盛世美颜。 月季和绣球也是如此，冬天都特别丑，到了春天就特别美。这与周期性行业很相似，无论是航运钢铁、房地产以及我们自己的证券行 ...