进入2026年，A股市场正站在一个关键的转折点上。自2024年9月"924"行情以来，上证指数从约2700点 一路攀升至当前4100点附近。这并非一轮情绪驱动的短期行情，而是在政策持续发力、企业盈利预期改 善以及居民储蓄加速入市的多重支撑下,市场正从估值修复阶段迈向盈利驱动的新周期。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者张伟泽袁思杰香港报道 2026年A股市场将如何演绎？投资者应采取何种策略？近日，21世纪经济报道记者专访了摩根大通中国 内地及香港地区股票策略研究主管刘鸣镝。 刘鸣镝表示，若反内卷取得实质性成效，2026年A股市场有望迎来一轮"慢牛"行情，投资者信心或将发 生根本性转变。其核心驱动力在于企业盈利能力的持续改善，而这将支持资产回报及估值的可持续性。 刘鸣镝以日本股市为例，指出日本东证指数（TOPIX）在过去十二年间上涨了约两倍， 但其每股营业 额以美元计价并未显著成长，关键在于企业净利润率从约3%上升到7%。她认为，中国企业正走在相似 的道路上，通过减少无效竞争、优化资本开支、稳定及提升股东回报，以逐步摆脱"增收不增利"的困 境。 在行业方面，刘鸣镝重点关注地产、材料与信息技术（IT）。她认为，若年内 ...

韩国央行下任行长的热门候选人之一李承宪近日表示，他认为应提高房产持有税，以遏制房价飙升引发 的通胀，但转向更加强调货币紧缩的政策还为时过早。 李承宪此前担任韩国央行高级副行长一职，是仅次于行长李昌镛的第二号人物。他现在被视为接替李昌 镛的潜在人选，后者的四年任期将于 4 月 20 日结束。 在 2 月 6 日的一次采访中，李承宪表示，他认为目前无需立即收紧政策，但他也指出，政府应当对房地 产市场采取更严格的限制措施，因为房价的上涨可能会重新引发通货膨胀压力，并阻碍中产阶级家庭购 置自己的住房。 "在谈到房地产市场政策时，我认为除非通过提高房产持有税等方式使购房成本实际增加，否则是无法 稳定市场的。"他说道。但总体而言，货币政策应保持稳定，因为"现在还不是宣布可能加息的时候"。 李承宪表示："经济增长仍显乏力。我们需要在此时加快步伐，所以我认为市场增长速度过快了。虽然 趋势可能是正确的，但我认为这样做过于草率了。"他所指的是近期三年期国债收益率的上涨情况，该 收益率上周达到了 19 个月以来的最高点。 "该汇率水平可能会短暂突破1500 的关口，但我认为这样的水平是难以持续的，"他说道。 责任编辑：于健 SF0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Commodity price volatility has significantly increased, and risk prevention and control should be emphasized before the Spring Festival. The sharp decline in precious metals has triggered market panic and dragged down the overall commodity trend. The short - term event is a catalyst for the adjustment of over - bought or over - sold assets, but long - term de - leveraging or interest rate cuts have not been priced in. In the long run, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets, and the fundamental situation of precious metals and some metal varieties remains unchanged. However, due to the complex geopolitical environment and approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to pay attention to risk prevention [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views - **Macro - situation**: This week, domestic commodities weakened significantly, with industrial products and agricultural products falling. Precious metals tumbled under the impact of the expectation of a hawkish Fed chairman, dragging down non - ferrous metals and overall commodity sentiment. The US manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply, but the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be observed. The eurozone's CPI continued to decline, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have increased, driving up international oil prices. In China, policies to promote consumption during the Spring Festival have been introduced, and the central bank's credit policy has shifted to support high - quality development [3]. - **Commodity views**: Commodity price volatility has increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metals was mainly due to profit - taking after over - heating in the early stage, and the increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, the market needs to digest policy uncertainties and de - leveraging pressure, and volatility may continue. In the long term, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets [3]. Part Two: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US**: The January ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations, indicating that the manufacturing industry is emerging from the contraction. However, the ADP employment data was disappointing, and the employment situation remains sluggish, increasing the urgency of further interest rate cuts [5][8]. - **Eurozone**: The January CPI dropped to 1.7%, the lowest since September 2024. The ECB is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2%. Inflation shows significant regional and industry differentiation, and there are still potential price pressures [11]. - **Geopolitical**: Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with military confrontations in the Gulf region. The location and form of the nuclear talks have changed, and the risk of misjudgment has increased. Geopolitical risks have driven up oil prices, and the outcome of the talks will affect the energy market and financial markets [14]. - **Precious metals**: International gold and silver prices continued to plummet. The main reasons were the change in macro - policy expectations and the imbalance in the market trading structure. The increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, volatility may continue, but in the long term, the fundamentals of precious metals remain supported [17]. Part Three: Domestic Situation Analysis - **"Happy Shopping for Spring Festival"**: The "2026 'Happy Shopping for Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" focuses on creating a consumption ecosystem, with measures such as rewarding invoices, promoting trade - in, and providing financial support. 62.5 billion yuan in trade - in super - debt has been allocated to support holiday consumption [21]. - **2026 Credit Work Conference**: The central bank's credit policy has shifted to support long - term high - quality development, emphasizing stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, risk prevention, and coordinated efficiency. The policy aims to promote the stable and effective release of credit [22]. - **Policy - end**: The 2026 Central No. 1 Document focuses on agricultural and rural modernization, with changes in strategic positioning, poverty - alleviation mechanisms, and policy goals. The "Long - term Asset Input Tax Deduction Interim Measures" refines the VAT system, promoting economic high - quality development [24][25]. Part Four: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production end**: Chemical production load decreased slightly, with most product prices rising. Steel production increased slightly, but demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate [32]. - **Demand end**: Real estate sales decreased week - on - week, and passenger car retail sales decreased year - on - year [39]. - **Price trends**: Most food prices fell this week, including vegetables, pork, and fruits [40].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a positive trend with all three major indices rising, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate sector as the most challenging period may be coming to an end [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.56%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.04% [1] - The real estate ETF, Huaxia (515060), saw a rise of 2.98%, with the latest price at 0.761 yuan and an intraday turnover rate of 3.17% [1] Leading Stocks - Key stocks in the real estate sector performed strongly, with Shahe Co. leading at a 9.99% increase, followed by Jindi Group at 9.94%, Huafa Co. at 5.86%, Vanke A at 5.41%, and Yingxin Development at 5.30% [1] Industry Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the real estate sector's performance remains under pressure, but the most difficult times may be gradually passing, maintaining a "positive" rating [1] - After a deep adjustment in China's real estate market, the industry fundamentals are expected to approach a bottom, supported by recent central government efforts to stabilize the market [1] - The central media's emphasis on the financial attributes of real estate and the need for comprehensive policy support indicates a more positive policy tone [1] Supply-Side Dynamics - The deep clearing of supply-side issues in the real estate sector has significantly optimized the industry landscape, suggesting that the profitability of quality real estate companies will recover earlier and be more resilient [1] - The current allocation in the sector has reached historical lows, with some quality companies' price-to-book (PB) ratios or absolute market values at historical low levels, making the sector attractive for investment [1]

Dewi John LSEG Lipper欧洲区研究负责人 Luke Lu LSEG 信用研究与量化建模部门主管 Robin Marshall 富时罗素 全球投资研究部主管 Jharonne Martis LSEG 消费者研究部门主管 Plamen Mitkov LSEG 全球住房抵押支持证券（RMBS）研究团队负责人 Irene Shi LSEG 全球住房抵押支持证券（RMBS）研究高级经理 Tajinder Dhillon CFA，资深经理，收益与股票研究部门 Detlef Glow LSEG Lipper欧洲区研究主管 宏观方面 尽管仍存在全球性风险，包括地缘政治风险、美国乃至全球范围内可能出现的全面经济衰退风险等， 但到2026年，这些风险的严重程度相对较低。而且在传统的估值指标中，很难找到信用和股票市场存 在泡沫的有力证据。自2025年4月关税激增以来，全球金融状况已持续稳步改善，各国央行也已表 明，他们无意将资产负债表规模缩减至金融危机前的水平，以降低金融稳定风险。通胀率仍高于一些 央行的目标值，但几乎没有证据表明会重回高通胀状态。因此，如果2026年失业率上升速度加快，美 联储仍有进一步放宽政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic transformation of Shahe Co., Ltd. has taken a significant step with the announcement of a major asset acquisition, aiming to diversify its business beyond real estate into advanced manufacturing [2][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Shahe Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 70% of Shenzhen Jinghua Display Electronics Co., Ltd. for 274 million yuan in cash, marking a major asset restructuring and related party transaction [2][3]. - The acquisition will introduce smart display controllers and LCD display devices to Shahe's business portfolio, shifting from a solely real estate focus [3][6]. - Jinghua Electronics is recognized as a national-level "little giant" enterprise, with an assessed value increase of 40.58% for the acquisition [3][8]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The transaction is expected to enhance Shahe's profitability, with projected increases in total assets, net profit, and earnings per share post-acquisition [6]. - Financial data indicates that Shahe's earnings per share will rise from 0.07 yuan to 0.14 yuan after the acquisition [6][7]. - As of September 30, 2025, Shahe's cash reserves stood at 510 million yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.14%, providing a solid financial foundation for the acquisition [5]. Group 3: Strategic Context - The acquisition reflects Shahe's urgent need for new growth avenues amid declining performance in its core real estate business, with a projected net profit loss of 13.6 million to 15.6 million yuan for 2025 [5][6]. - The transaction is part of a broader trend of resource optimization and transformation within the Shenzhen state-owned enterprise system, aiming to revitalize traditional industries [10][11]. - This move aligns with national policies promoting mergers and acquisitions to enhance the quality of listed companies and support strategic emerging industries [11].

Macro Commentary - The report indicates a slowdown in China's economic growth in Q1, but improvements in deflation are noted, with policymakers signaling a focus on stabilizing real estate, promoting consumption, and countering "involution" [2] - The US economy is expected to rebound, with rental inflation declining, offsetting a rise in commodity inflation, leading to a stable dollar liquidity environment [2] - The report anticipates only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June this year, with a potential for a spring rebound in the stock market [2] Internet Sector - In January, high beta stocks benefitting from event-driven catalysts significantly outperformed the industry, aided by improved market risk appetite and liquidity [2] - Major Chinese internet companies are increasing market spending on AI applications targeting end-users, with 2026 identified as a critical year for capturing user engagement in the AI era [2] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,560, down 1.21% for the day but up 3.63% year-to-date, while the US markets showed a rebound with the Dow Jones up 2.47% [2] - The report highlights the performance of various indices, with the Hang Seng Financial Index down 1.89% and the Hang Seng Property Index up 17.49% year-to-date [3] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with certain profit growth and those benefiting from AI [5] - Specific stocks to watch include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-driven growth potential, and NetEase and Trip.com for their stable earnings visibility [5] Software and IT Services - The report expresses optimism for the software sector, expecting revenue growth to support valuations, while cautioning about the competitive pressures from AI model vendors [6] - Recommended stocks include Palo Alto Networks in the US and Kingdee in China, which are expected to benefit from AI-related revenue growth [6] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively, driven by AI demand, with structural shortages in memory products like HBM and server DRAM [7] - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Northern Huachuang, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing power [7] Technology Sector - The report anticipates a continued high demand for AI computing infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, with specific recommendations for companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics [8] Consumer Sector - The Hang Seng Consumer Index has risen 8% year-to-date, driven by high elasticity in discretionary consumption sectors [9] - The report highlights the potential for increased consumer spending during the Spring Festival, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] Automotive Sector - January saw a slowdown in automotive sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, but a recovery is expected post-Spring Festival [11] - Recommended stocks include Geely for its expanding new energy vehicle matrix and Xpeng for its potential to turn profitable [11] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of innovative drugs going global, with a focus on clinical progress and data validation for drugs already in international markets [12] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of drug commercialization [12] Capital Goods Sector - The report notes a positive outlook for the capital goods sector, particularly in construction machinery, driven by rising metal prices and increased mining capital expenditures [21] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for construction equipment [21] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector is optimistic due to favorable policies, with the Hang Seng Property Index rising 15% year-to-date [19] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao and Greentown China, which have shown significant price increases [19]

全球股市大反攻！ 早盘，亚太股市承接上周五美股大举反攻。A股上证指数一度涨超50点，创业板指涨超2%，深成指涨超 1.5%，光伏、影视、算力硬件、化工等板块涨幅居前，沪深京三市上涨个股超4500只。 从结构上来看，三大驱动因素来袭：一是上周五英伟达大反弹，引爆了AI相关板块；二是特斯拉正评估美国 多个选址，计划扩大太阳能电池制造业务，引爆了太阳能板块；三是港股内房股持续大涨，带飞了A股房地产 板块。 那么，市场是否还存在变数？ 光伏更猛，金晶科技一字涨停，聚和材料涨超10%，协鑫集成、连城数控、奥特维、钧达股份、晶科能源跟 涨。马斯克"带飞"整个板块。据报道，特斯拉正评估美国多个选址，计划扩大太阳能电池制造业务，目标在未 来三年内实现每年100吉瓦的太阳能制造能力。 房地产板块最近也蠢蠢欲动。港股内房股率先异动，旭辉控股集团涨超9%，富力地产涨超5%，融创中国涨超 4%，龙光集团、融信中国、碧桂园跟涨。 据西南证券研报，房地产行业阶段性企稳，成交同比大幅回升，政策持续宽松驱动市场回暖。2月43城新房、 14城二手房成交同比分别增长360.3%、443.7%，一线及核心二线城市回暖显著。包括大宗在内的资产价格飙 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global markets are experiencing a significant rebound, with U.S. stock indices showing strong gains and A-shares also performing well, particularly in sectors like space photovoltaic, AI applications, and chemicals [1][2][8]. Market Performance - U.S. stock futures have expanded gains following the Dow Jones Industrial Average's historic breakthrough of 50,000 points [1]. - A-shares opened strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.17%, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index up 3.11% [1]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Highlights - **Space Photovoltaic Sector**: Led the market with over 20 stocks, including TCL Zhonghuan and Shuangliang Energy, hitting the daily limit [3]. - **CPO and Computing Hardware Stocks**: Continued strong performance with stocks like Tianfu Communication and Changfei Optical Fiber reaching new highs, driven by strategic growth in the advanced packaging market, expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.4% [4]. - **AI Applications**: Stocks such as Rongxin Culture and Chinese Online saw significant gains, spurred by advancements in AI video generation technology [5]. - **Chemical Sector**: Active performance with stocks like Runtu and Jihua Group hitting the daily limit, influenced by rising prices in disperse dyes due to increased costs of upstream intermediates [6]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that external disturbances have not significantly impacted China's industrial fundamentals, and the market sentiment has fully released, indicating a potential continuation of the spring market after the Spring Festival [2][8]. - Guotai Junan emphasizes the historical strength of the market during February and the pre-Spring Festival period, recommending confidence in the current market position around 4,000 points [9]. - Huajin Securities advises holding stocks through the holiday, focusing on sectors with upward trends such as electronics, media, and chemicals [10]. - Tianfeng Securities identifies three main investment directions: opportunities in AI-driven technology, economic recovery, and sectors with potential for turnaround [11].

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival, with a focus on individual stock plays and structural rotations, suggesting that opportunities will arise from quick stock trading and sector rotations rather than a clear trend [1][13][14] - The market is expected to exhibit a "seek stability before the festival, rebound after" rhythm, with defensive sectors like consumption and dividend stocks likely to attract attention before the holiday, while post-holiday focus may shift to small-cap growth stocks and sectors with clear industrial catalysts [1][13][14] Market Overview - Last Friday, the three major indices in the A-share market opened lower but rebounded to close in the green during the morning session, only to fall back in the afternoon, continuing the recent adjustment trend [4][5] - The chemical, battery, and mining sectors showed strength, while consumer and AI-related stocks experienced a collective pullback, indicating a structural rotation in the market [1][4][13] Sector Performance - The report highlights that cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals have been active, driven by ongoing domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and improving economic supply-demand dynamics [7][8] - The new energy sector, particularly battery and photovoltaic stocks, has shown resilience, supported by global trends towards carbon neutrality and domestic policy reforms aimed at reducing competition in these fields [8][9] - Consumer stocks have also been active, with government policies aimed at stimulating consumption creating structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors catering to demographic trends and service consumption upgrades [10][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to balance stability and flexibility in their strategies, focusing on consumption and dividend stocks before the festival while preparing for potential growth opportunities post-festival [2][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in the current volatile market, suggesting that investors should be ready to adapt to changing market rhythms [2][14]