电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔.伯里(Michael Burry)否认做空特斯拉(TSLA.US)的股票，尽管他本月早 些时候曾称该公司"估值高得离谱"。伯里在社交平台X上回复一位询问他是否会做空特斯拉的用户时表 示："我没有做空(特斯拉)。" 这位广为人知的对冲基金经理，因精准预言2008年美国次贷危机、并利用信用违约掉期大举做空次级抵 押贷款债券而成为市场传奇。这笔押注为他本人带来了近1亿美元收益，为其投资者赚取了7亿至7.25亿 美元。在业内，伯里以极度逆向投资而闻名，他能够忍受巨大的回撤，并在数年之后取得胜利。 在经历了长达数年的淡出公众视野后，伯里于今年11月重新回到公众视野。他此前多次警告称，美股科 技估值存在由AI驱动的泡沫。他披露了对英伟达和Palantir的空头头寸，同时指责主要的AI支出方对其 数据中心资产的折旧情况进行了不实陈述。 伯里在11月底将矛头指向了特斯拉，在其专栏里称特斯拉市值被"荒谬地高估"了，且这种情况已持续相 当长时间。在专栏中，伯里不仅明确质疑特斯拉的估值，还认为公司股权结构与业务战略存在问题。他 指出，马斯克此前提出的1万亿美元薪酬方案若落地，将进一步稀释特斯拉现有股东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the mandatory national standard for electric vehicle energy consumption, effective January 1, 2026, aims to enhance energy efficiency and reduce costs for consumers while promoting technological advancements in the automotive industry [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Consumers and Vehicle Usage - The new standard requires that all new electric vehicles must meet stricter energy consumption limits, which will lead to longer actual driving ranges and lower operating costs for consumers [2]. - Current non-compliant models can improve their range by approximately 7% through technological optimization to meet the new limits [2]. Group 2: Rationale Behind the New Standard - The establishment of this standard is part of a broader initiative to enhance energy efficiency in the automotive sector, aligning with national carbon reduction goals [3]. - The standard also includes requirements for manufacturers to provide energy consumption data under various temperature conditions, ensuring consumers are well-informed [3]. Group 3: Effects on Technology and Market Dynamics - The new standard will shift the industry from a model focused on large batteries for extended range to one emphasizing high efficiency and low energy consumption [4]. - Approximately 40% of current models do not meet the new standards, necessitating technological upgrades to avoid being phased out [4][5]. - The implementation of the standard is expected to drive significant advancements in automotive energy-saving technologies, including lightweight design and improved electric drive system efficiency [5][6].

特斯拉或将迎来连续第二年年度交付量下滑。 当地时间12月29日，特斯拉通过投资者关系网站罕见发布第四季度交付预测，首次以官方形式公开整理 了大和、德意志银行、高盛、巴克莱等20家知名机构的交付量预测数据。 此举被解读为公司提前管理市场预期、应对潜在业绩压力的主动策略。 根据特斯拉公开的预测数据，机构预计其2025年第四季度预计交付车辆42.29万辆。这一数值较2024年 同期下滑约15%，且低于彭博社、FactSet等外部机构对其今年四季度44.5万辆的平均预估，显示出更为 悲观的预期。 从全年来看，特斯拉CEO埃隆・马斯克在政治及公共事务领域的活跃表态引发部分消费者分歧，被认为 是美国部分州及欧洲市场销量压力加剧的潜在因素。2025年前两个季度，特斯拉已因相关言论导致销量 阶段性暴跌，虽第三季度靠政策红利短暂提振，但未能扭转全年下滑趋势。 不过，马斯克的"回归"等因素挽回了特斯拉的股价。资本市场上，尽管销量预期疲软，特斯拉2025年股 价仍保持上行态势，投资者关注点开始向自动驾驶、Robotaxi和人形机器人等新兴业务转移。 Wedbush Securities著名分析师Dan Ives明确将2026定义为 ...

2025年， 会是 中国新中产阶级集体 "向内转"的元年。 在过去的十年里，我们习惯了追逐标准答案：按照精准的日程表行事、维持体面的社交圈层、购买被社会公认的符号商品，过着一种被严密规训的 "标配 人生"。 但在跨入 2025年，一种微妙而坚定的社会情绪正在蔓延 。 人们开始 痛切地意识到 ，人生不应仅仅是一条笔直的轨道，而更应是一片充满可能性的旷 野。 这一趋势并非空穴来风。据《 2025胡润中国高净值人群品质生活报告》等行业观察显示，中国高净值人群的消费决策逻辑正在发生剧烈震荡：在汽车领 域，本土电动汽车新势力的青睐度已超越德系传统豪华品牌。这一数据的背后，不仅仅是品牌的更替，更是整个社会生活方式价值锚点的剧烈迁徙。 在燃油车时代，车头的 Logo代表着机械素质的信任背书；但在万物互联的智能时代，传统的品牌光环因无法实时应对复杂的交通路况、无法提供主动式的 安全防护 而在加速贬值。 那些能够利用技术冗余构建 "避风港"、利用场景创新打开"新旷野"的产品，成了这一年最硬核的情绪资产。 消费者不再单纯为了取悦他人的目光而支付溢价，转而更愿意为提升自我体验的 "悦己"价值买单。这种认知升维，恰恰为享界走向舞台中 ...

Group 1 - New regulations effective from January 1, 2026, will address various aspects such as social security, education, electric vehicles, and cybersecurity to better respond to public concerns and enhance development vitality [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] - The revised Public Security Administration Punishment Law will include new behaviors affecting social security, such as exam cheating and unauthorized drone flights, which may face penalties [2] - The new kindergarten fee policy mandates public and non-profit kindergartens to implement government-guided pricing, while for-profit kindergartens will follow market pricing, with a requirement for fee transparency [3] - The first mandatory standard for electric vehicle energy consumption will require necessary technical upgrades for new products, improving average driving range by approximately 7% [4] - The new VAT law will be implemented, marking significant progress in establishing legal frameworks for taxation in China [5] Group 2 - The revised National Common Language Law will enhance language education and set standards for online language use, promoting the use of the national language [6] - A one-time credit repair policy will allow for automatic adjustments to credit reports for overdue records under specific conditions, improving personal credit visibility [7] - The National Park Law will prioritize hiring local residents for ecological management positions and encourage public participation in conservation efforts [8] - The amended Cybersecurity Law will introduce risk monitoring and assessment for artificial intelligence, supporting the development of key technologies [9] - The revised Civil Case Cause Regulations will include new categories related to data and virtual property disputes, expanding the total number of causes to 1,055 [10]

Group 1 - A new mandatory standard for electric vehicle energy consumption will be implemented starting January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing public safety, education, electric vehicles, and cybersecurity [1] - The standard, titled "Energy Consumption Limits for Electric Vehicles Part 1: Passenger Cars" (GB 36980.1—2025), requires manufacturers to upgrade technology for new vehicles [1] - For vehicles weighing around 2 tons, the new standard mandates that energy consumption should not exceed 15.1 kWh per 100 kilometers, leading to an average increase of approximately 7% in driving range without changing battery capacity [1]

Group 1: Social Security and Education - New regulations on social security, education, and public safety will take effect on January 1, 2026, addressing issues such as exam cheating and drone misuse [1] - The revised law on kindergarten fees mandates public and non-profit kindergartens to follow government-guided pricing, while for-profit kindergartens will have market-regulated fees [2] Group 2: Electric Vehicles - A mandatory standard for electric vehicle energy consumption will be implemented, requiring necessary technical upgrades for new products, with a target of not exceeding 15.1 kWh per 100 km for vehicles weighing around 2 tons, leading to an average range increase of approximately 7% [3] Group 3: Taxation - The new VAT law will come into effect, marking a significant step in establishing legal frameworks for taxation in China, with 14 out of 18 tax types now having legal statutes [4] Group 4: Language and Technology - The revised national language law will enhance the education and development of the national language, including regulations for online language use [5] - The new cybersecurity law will address artificial intelligence risks, promoting research and infrastructure development while enhancing risk monitoring and safety regulations [9] Group 5: Personal Credit - A one-time credit repair policy will be introduced, allowing for the automatic adjustment of overdue records based on specific repayment conditions, effective from January 1, 2026 [6] Group 6: Environmental Protection - The National Park Law will prioritize hiring local residents for ecological management positions and encourage public participation in environmental protection [7] Group 7: Civil Law - The revised civil case regulations will include disputes related to data and virtual property, expanding the total number of case types to 1,055 [10]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has significantly lowered its Q4 2025 delivery forecast for Tesla from the market expectation of 435,000 units to 415,000 units, representing a year-over-year decline of 16% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 17% [1]. Group 1: Delivery Forecast and Market Conditions - UBS's downward revision of Tesla's delivery forecast indicates significant pressure on the company, despite the long timeline before the conditions for Musk's high compensation package are evaluated [1]. - Tesla's delivery volumes have shown fluctuations across major markets, including the U.S., Europe, and China, which has contributed to analysts' pessimism [4]. - In the U.S. market, Tesla's delivery volume for October and November was 80,000 units, a decrease of 23% compared to the first two months of Q4 2024 and a 26% decline year-over-year [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Profitability - Tesla's total revenue in Q1 2025 decreased by 9% year-over-year, with GAAP net profit at $409 million and an operating margin plummeting to 2.1% [5]. - UBS's financial projections for Tesla indicate a decline in EBIT and net income, with expected EBIT of $6.101 billion and net income of $5.403 billion for 2025 [6]. Group 3: Product Challenges and Consumer Sentiment - The Model Y has been reported as the "least reliable model" in the 2026 TÜV report, with the highest defect rate recorded in the past decade, raising concerns about quality [5]. - The "phantom braking" phenomenon in Tesla's FSD system has led to legal challenges and increased scrutiny regarding the safety of the autonomous driving technology [5]. Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Tesla's FSD system is crucial for the Robotaxi business, which has begun operations in Austin, Texas, with plans to expand to additional cities [8]. - The company aims to produce the Cybercab at a cost below $30,000, with operational costs as low as $0.20 per mile, potentially transforming the transportation industry [8]. - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is set to enter mass production, with plans for a third-generation model by the end of 2025, which could redefine human-robot collaboration and open new market opportunities [9].

Group 1: South Korea - The Seoul Composite Index achieved a remarkable annual performance, rising nearly 76% in 2025, marking the largest increase since 1999 [3][4] - Key drivers of this growth included semiconductor stocks, particularly Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which saw increases of 125% and 270% respectively [3][7] - The AI infrastructure investment significantly contributed to the market's strength, with companies like Hyosung Heavy Industries and Doosan Enerbility rising over 320% due to increased demand for data center power [6][7] - Analysts from major firms like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley predict further growth in the Korean stock market, estimating at least a 20% increase in the coming year supported by strong earnings growth [8] Group 2: Japan - The Tokyo Stock Exchange Index closed at a record high of 3408.97 points, surpassing the peak from the 1989 bubble, with a 22% annual increase [9][11] - The upward trend is attributed to valuation corrections and expanding buying interest across various sectors, including financials and real estate [9][11] - Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks for the first time since 2022, indicating a broadening market appeal [11] Group 3: Indonesia - The Jakarta Composite Index rose approximately 22% in 2025, marking its best performance since 2014, driven primarily by increased participation from domestic retail investors [12] - Despite a net outflow of $1 billion from foreign investors, local retail investors significantly increased their market presence, with their numbers growing fivefold to over 20 million [12] - Analysts expect continued support for the Indonesian stock market due to factors like accelerated loan growth and low fixed-income returns, projecting the index could reach 11,000 points, a 27% increase from current levels [12]

Group 1 - The new mandatory national standard for electric vehicle energy consumption will be implemented on January 1, 2026, and is the first of its kind globally [1] - The standard imposes stricter energy consumption limits, approximately 11% more stringent than the previous recommended standard, with a requirement of no more than 15.1 kWh per 100 km for vehicles around 2 tons [1][2] - The implementation of this standard is expected to lead to an average increase of about 7% in the range of electric vehicles, resulting in longer actual driving distances and lower operating costs for consumers [2] Group 2 - The establishment of this standard is part of a broader effort to enhance energy efficiency in the automotive industry, particularly as it transitions to new energy vehicles [3] - The standard aligns with national goals for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, serving as a crucial measure for promoting high-quality development in the automotive sector [3][6] - The new standard will require manufacturers to provide additional information on energy consumption in extreme temperature conditions, ensuring consumers are well-informed about vehicle performance [3] Group 3 - The introduction of the new standard will shift the industry from a model focused on large batteries for extended range to a more refined approach emphasizing high efficiency and low energy consumption [4] - Approximately 40% of current vehicle models do not meet the new energy consumption limits, necessitating technological upgrades to avoid being phased out [4][5] - The standard is expected to drive significant advancements in automotive energy-saving technologies, including lightweight design, improved electric drive system efficiency, and thermal management optimization [5][6]