Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong provincial government report emphasizes the role of "Media +" in enhancing agricultural product branding and sales, particularly in the city of Qingyuan, which has successfully implemented this model to boost local agricultural industries and promote regional specialties [2][3][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - By 2025, the total output value of Guangdong's agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery is projected to grow by 4.9% [3]. - The "Media +" initiative has significantly contributed to the upgrading of agricultural product brands and increased sales [3][4]. - Qingyuan has established itself as a pioneer in applying the "Media +" model to empower agricultural products, leading to successful market penetration for local specialties like Xiniu bamboo shoots and Yingde black tea [5][6]. Group 2: Media Empowerment - The "Media +" strategy in Qingyuan includes innovative approaches such as "Media + rural operation" and "Media + industry investment," allowing media to play a deeper role in the industrial chain [11][12]. - A comprehensive empowerment system has been created, integrating media resources with creative, branding, and technological aspects to enhance product visibility and market reach [13][14]. - The collaboration with influencers and media platforms has resulted in significant sales, exemplified by a two-day live stream that sold 40,000 kg of bamboo shoots [15][16]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The brand value of Yingde black tea has reached 5.178 billion yuan, making it the top regional public brand in the national black tea category [31]. - The export value of Xiniu bamboo shoots reached 15 million yuan from January to August 2025, marking a 50% year-on-year increase, with products being exported to countries like Vietnam and Cambodia [28][29]. - The overall output value of Lianzhou vegetable heart has surged from 600 million yuan to 2.7 billion yuan within three years, showcasing the effectiveness of the "Media +" strategy in elevating agricultural products to cultural symbols [41][42]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Qingyuan aims to continue deepening the "Media +" empowerment model to enhance the branding and market expansion of more local agricultural products, contributing to high-quality agricultural development across the province [45][46].

Industrial Sector - In January, daily average pig iron production and float glass operating rates remained stable, while asphalt and some chemical products saw a decline in operating rates[4] - The apparent demand for major steel products decreased, while cement clinker capacity utilization increased[4] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires increased, while full-steel tire operating rates declined[20] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 38.5% year-on-year as of January 23, with a similar decline of 38.6% for the month of January[21] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.93% week-on-week, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points from the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 18 dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a slight expected increase of 0.3% for the entire month due to the Spring Festival timing[29] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.5% year-on-year as of January 16, a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous value[33] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 5.4% year-on-year as of January 18, a drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous value[32] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of January 18, an improvement of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value[35] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.6% year-on-year, also showing an increase from previous values[35] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 1.1%, while the Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index fell by 0.9% and the Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 3.0%[36] - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 1.7% week-on-week[40]

Group 1 - The USDA reported that for the week ending January 15, 2025/2026 corn export net sales were 4.011 million tons, up from 1.14 million tons the previous week, while 2026/2027 corn net sales were 0 tons, down from 0.1 million tons the previous week [1] - Corn shipments for the 2025/2026 marketing year totaled 1.434 million tons, a decrease from 1.556 million tons the prior week [1] - Crop expert Dr. Michael Cordone maintains corn production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina at 137 million tons and 56 million tons, respectively, while AgRural reports that Brazil's second-season corn planting is lagging at 1.1%, compared to 6.7% at the same time last year [1] Group 2 - According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the increase in grain production in 2025 will mainly come from the three northeastern provinces, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, with corn being the primary contributor [3] - The current market sentiment is generally positive, with active trading in the corn market, and the average domestic corn price is 2,326 yuan per ton [4] - There is an increased willingness to sell at the grassroots and trading levels ahead of the holiday, with downstream corn raw material inventories being low, leading to increased replenishment by feed and deep processing enterprises [4]

Group 1 - The Guangdong provincial government work report highlights the "Media+" initiative, which has significantly contributed to the branding and sales of agricultural products [2][3][5] - The "Media+ and Guangxi collaboration" has transformed from a concept into tangible results, driving the sales of characteristic agricultural products from Tianyang District to eastern regions, with a projected sales amount of 285 million yuan by 2025 [4][7] - The initiative has facilitated 11 promotional events in key cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, enhancing the recognition of Tianyang agricultural products in the Greater Bay Area [9][10] Group 2 - The "Media+" approach has provided real opportunities for local enterprises, leading to a substantial increase in brand value and sales, with one company reporting over 4 million yuan in sales through all channels in 2025 [14][18] - The initiative has also fostered direct connections between local producers and Bay Area buyers, resulting in long-term supply agreements worth at least 600,000 yuan for mango products [22][23] - The benefits of "Media+" extend beyond leading fruit companies, positively impacting the entire mango industry chain, including farmers and workers, with temporary labor wages reaching 150 to 200 yuan per day [26][27][30] Group 3 - The "Media+" initiative is effectively driving the entire agricultural value chain, contributing to rural revitalization in Tianyang, with a focus on enhancing brand image and market access for high-quality agricultural products [32][34]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【粕类周报】 低位震荡，关注南美天气 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：低位震荡，关注南美天气 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）根据CONAB，截至1月17日，巴西大豆收割率为2.3%，上周为0.6%，去年同期为1.2%，五年均值为3.2%。根据BAGE，截至1月21日，阿根廷大豆播 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 种进度96.2%，小幅落后于去年同期。大豆作物状况评级良好占比53%(上周值61%，去年同期值26%)。（3）根据国内买船情况推测， 1月国内大豆到港预 | | | | 期为613万吨，2月到港预期484万吨，3月到港预期470万吨；(3）2025/26年全球菜籽预期恢复性增产，中加会晤释放友好信号，3月后加菜籽、加菜粕 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Corn spot prices face ongoing contradictions and are expected to experience short - term high - level fluctuations. Northeast corn sales progress is relatively fast, port inventories are low, and there is a certain pre - holiday restocking demand from the mid - and downstream sectors. As a result, short - term spot prices remain firm, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grass - roots grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, with faster - than - average sales in the Northeast. This year's Chinese New Year is later, providing a longer pre - holiday grain sales window, and farmers still have a price - holding sentiment. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, but the overall national production is expected to be abundant [4]. - **Demand**: Slightly bullish. High pig inventories and limited capacity reduction support short - term feed demand. However, due to capacity adjustment and policy control expectations, long - term feed demand is expected to decline. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks and conduct rolling restocking. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal restocking needs but are cautious. Traders have not carried out large - scale strategic restocking and have restocking requirements [4]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to strong shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, and the inventory remains at a low level, mostly contract - order inventory. The domestic trade corn inventory at South Ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks, and deep - processing corn inventories are low [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs has returned to positive, broiler farming has a small profit, and layer farming profit has recovered. However, the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are in the red [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. From the perspective of planting costs, the corn futures valuation is high; from the basis perspective, it is neutral [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Fluctuating. Given the fast sales progress in the Northeast, low port inventories, and restocking demand from the mid - and downstream sectors, short - term spot prices are firm, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be slightly bullish, and arbitrage trading should be on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trends**: The report presents the basis trend of the corn main contract, prices at various ports (Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port), and the futures market's open interest, indicating that the open interest is at a high level [7][9][13]. 3. Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain Sales Progress**: The sales progress in the Northeast and North China is presented, with the Northeast's sales progress being relatively fast. The channel supply is at a high level [23][25]. - **Imported Grains**: Imported grains decreased in January and February, and the import profit of US corn is at a high level [35]. - **Port Conditions**: Corn inventories at both North and South Ports are at low levels. Feed enterprises' inventory days and monthly feed production are also presented [42][49][51]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: Pig prices have slightly rebounded, and the pig weight is at a high level. Broiler and layer farming profits show different trends, and the inventory of parent - stock chickens and layer chickens is also presented [58][62][68]. - **Deep - Processing Industry**: Deep - processing corn consumption shows a seasonal decline, and deep - processing corn inventories are low. Starch processing profits are in the red, and starch inventories are at a high level. Alcohol production rates are declining, and processing profits are falling. Paper - making production rates are high, but profits are declining. Wheat prices have slightly increased, and flour demand is weak [72][78][91][99][107]. 4. Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **January Report**: The corn stock - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The US corn export sales performance is good [118][125].

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的 文|小戎 一边是刚点头默许盟友合作，一边转头就甩出百倍关税大棒；一边是盟友迫切想打破经济困局，一边是 霸主用强权强行捆绑。 2026年初的这场跨洋博弈，特朗普连表面和气都懒得维持，直接将枪口对准了最亲近的邻居加拿大，一 场关乎经济主权的较量已然打响，而加拿大成了首个被推上风口浪尖的受害者。 不准与中国签协议，否则加税100% 谁能想到，八天前还被特朗普称为"好事"的中加经贸合作，转瞬就成了引爆霸权怒火的导火索。 加拿大总理卡尼访华带回的《经贸合作路线图》，本是这个依赖单一市场的国家，为经济找的一条活路 ——不仅能摆脱对美75.9%的出口依赖，还能靠着农产品和能源出口打开新空间。 可这份互利共赢的协议，在特朗普眼里却成了挑战权威的"叛逆之举"。 特朗普的翻脸比翻书还快，直接在社交媒体撂下狠话：只要加拿大敢和中国敲定任何贸易协议，所有输 美商品一律加征100%关税，这个税率比去年的威胁翻了十倍，近乎要把加拿大经济逼上绝路。 更过分的是，他再次将加拿大称作"美国第51个州"，完全无视这个主权国家的尊严，字里行间都在传递 一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Global Fixed - Income Market**: A new logic has emerged where bonds have shifted from traditional safe - havens to risk sources. Fiscal sustainability has become the core anchor for bond pricing, and the new logic is driven by the combination of fiscal, monetary, and inflationary pressures. It is also globally contagious, affecting both developed and emerging markets. The fiscal health of economies and policy games are key considerations for fixed - income investment [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation, supported by domestic export and settlement data. However, the appreciation process will be regulated by the central bank and may be affected by the strength of the US dollar index. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlements, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [6][7]. - **Equity Index**: The medium - to long - term upward trend of the equity index is supported by policy and liquidity, but the small - and medium - cap indices may experience short - term technical adjustments due to overheating [7]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a game between the weak current reality and the uncertain future. There are both positive factors such as the delay of full - scale resumption of navigation and local improvements in macro data, and negative factors like the sharp decline in spot freight rates and trade protectionism. The future price trend depends on the realization of resumption of navigation [11]. - **Commodities** - **Carbonate Lithium**: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling volatility [16]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the upward elasticity is restricted by the polysilicon inventory. Long - term investors can consider a long - position strategy at low prices [18][19]. - **Copper**: The price is in a narrow - range shock. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan, and long - positions built in the range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan can be held [24]. - **Aluminum and Its Products**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term and bullish in the long term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger [25][26][27]. - **Zinc**: The price may be volatile and slightly stronger, but it is also affected by macro and geopolitical factors [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The supply side is facing disturbances, and the market is in a state of long - short competition. Attention should be paid to supply - side news and inventory changes [29]. - **Tin**: The price may be in a high - level wide - range shock due to geopolitical factors [31]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: External soybean futures are weakly oscillating, and domestic soybean meal is expected to stop falling in the short term. Rapeseed meal may return to international pricing. Oils are expected to remain strong, with palm oil being the strongest [33][35][36]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a poor fundamental situation, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom [39]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term price is expected to be in a shock state. The 02 and 03 contracts' premium opportunities may be stable trading opportunities [41]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains. The price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to position control [47][48]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices have reached new highs, driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and the weakening of the US dollar. They are in an upward - prone state, and short - term corrections can be considered as opportunities to build long - positions [48][49]. - **Paper Pulp and Offset Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see for both paper pulp and offset paper futures [53]. - **LPG**: The short - term price is supported by external cold snaps and geopolitical factors, but the demand side is weakening [54]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices are strongly rising due to concentrated long - positions. However, the high - valuation situation is not suitable for chasing long - positions. It is recommended to wait for corrections to build long - positions [58]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of ethylene glycol has bottomed out and is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. It is not suitable to be used as a short - position target in the short term [60]. - **Methanol**: The price has rebounded, mainly due to geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical sector's sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO profits [62]. - **PP and PE**: Both are affected by market sentiment and sector rotation. Their fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][67]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Both are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips for styrene [68]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long - positions for the 05 contract, but the price may correct in the short term [70]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price elasticity of soda ash is limited, and glass is in a state of weak supply and demand, with no obvious trend [72][73]. - **Propylene**: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and device - related changes [75]. - **Black Commodities** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are in a range - bound shock, with the rebar 2605 contract in the range of 3050 - 3200 yuan and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the range of 3200 - 3350 yuan [76][77]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has limited downward space. Although the supply is abundant, the demand has certain resilience, and the steel mill's restocking demand is strong [78][80]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The demand for coking coal and coke may be insufficient in the short term. The coking coal spot price may face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to post - holiday mine resumption and macro - sentiment changes [83]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in a range - bound shock, with silicon ferrosilicon in the range of 5400 - 5900 yuan and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6100 yuan [84][85]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - **Live Pigs**: The main 03 contract may rise in an oscillating manner [88]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price has an upward drive in the medium - to long - term, but the short - term upward space is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to build long - positions on dips [90][91]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price has limited probability of further increase due to the decline of raw sugar and weak demand [93]. - **Eggs**: The main contract may weaken in an oscillating manner [95]. - **Apples**: The futures price may continue to rise if the demand continues to improve and inventory is removed more than expected [96]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [97]. - **Logs**: The price is in a range of 750 - 795, and a double - selling strategy of put at 750 and call at 800 can be considered [101]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Macroeconomic and Financial Futures - **Macro**: The probability of Rick Rieder of BlackRock being elected as the Fed Chairman has soared. His policy stance may lead to a further cut in policy rates. Japan's Prime Minister will take measures against abnormal market fluctuations, and the US is affected by a winter storm [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The RMB is supported by domestic data for appreciation, but the process will be regulated by the central bank [3][6]. - **Equity Index**: The previous trading day's index showed a differentiated trend, with large - cap indices weak and small - and medium - cap indices rising. The market may have short - term corrections due to overheating [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded last week, but the short - term may continue to oscillate. Medium - term long - positions can be held, and short - term investors can wait and see [8][9]. Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Review**: The futures contracts showed a differentiated trend, with the near - term contracts relatively stable and the far - term contracts showing different trends. The主力合约 EC2604 slightly declined, and the次主力合约 EC2606 rose [10]. - **Information Summary**: There are positive factors such as the delay of full - scale resumption of navigation and local improvements in macro data, and negative factors like the sharp decline in spot freight rates, the weakening of freight rate indices, and trade protectionism [11]. - **Trading Judgment**: The 02 and 04 contracts' prices decreased year - on - year. If the resumption of navigation cannot be realized, the 06 contract may have some upward space [12][13]. Commodities - **New Energy** - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rose last week, and the market is active. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival and pay attention to selling volatility [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The prices of both showed certain changes last week. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the polysilicon inventory restricts its upward elasticity [17][19]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The price was in a narrow - range shock last week. The LC spread narrowed, and LME copper warehouse receipts in US warehouses flowed in. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan [21][24]. - **Aluminum and Its Products**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends. Aluminum is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and bullish in the long term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger [25][26][27]. - **Zinc**: The price was oscillating strongly. The supply is expected to be relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It may oscillate strongly following the sector [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed different trends. The supply side is facing disturbances, and the market is in a state of long - short competition [28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was oscillating strongly and reached a new high at night. It is affected by geopolitical factors [30][31]. - **Lead**: The price was oscillating weakly. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to sell options to collect premiums [32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Oilseeds**: External soybean futures are weakly oscillating, and domestic soybean meal is expected to stop falling in the short term. Rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [33][35]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to remain strong, with palm oil being the strongest. The market is affected by geopolitical factors and bio - fuel policies [36][37]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas** - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a poor fundamental situation, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom [39]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term price is expected to be in a shock state. The 02 and 03 contracts' premium opportunities may be stable trading opportunities [41]. - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices rose last week. In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains. The price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range shock [44][48]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices reached new highs, driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and the weakening of the US dollar. They are in an upward - prone state [48][49]. - **Chemicals** - **Paper Pulp and Offset Paper**: The paper pulp futures price is affected by the spot market and may have limited upward space. The offset paper futures price is affected by cost and supply - side factors. It is recommended to wait and see for both [51][53]. - **LPG**: The short - term price is supported by external cold snaps and geopolitical factors, but the demand side is weakening [54]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices are strongly rising due to concentrated long - positions. However, the high - valuation situation is not suitable for chasing long - positions. It is recommended to wait for corrections to build long - positions [55][58]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of ethylene glycol has bottomed out and is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. It is not suitable to be used as a short - position target in the short term [59][60]. - **Methanol**: The price has rebounded, mainly due to geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical sector's sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO profits [61][62]. - **PP and PE**: Both are affected by market sentiment and sector rotation. Their fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [63][67]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Both are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips for styrene [68]. - **Urea**: The price of the 05 contract may continue to rise, but there may be short - term corrections. It is recommended to hold long - positions [69][70]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has an over - supply expectation, and the glass market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Both have limited price elasticity [71][73]. - **Propylene**: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and device - related changes [74][75]. - **Black Commodities** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are in a range - bound shock. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will weaken seasonally [76][77]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has limited downward space. Although the supply is abundant, the demand has certain resilience, and the steel mill's restocking demand is strong [78][80]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The demand for coking coal and coke may be insufficient in the short term. The coking coal spot price may face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to post - holiday mine resumption and macro - sentiment changes [81][83]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in a range - bound shock, with silicon ferrosilicon in the range of 5400 - 5900 yuan and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6100 yuan [84][85]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized. The main 03 contract may rise in an oscillating manner [87][88]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price has an upward drive in the medium - to long - term, but the short - term upward space is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to build long - positions on dips [89][91]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price has limited probability of further increase due to the decline of raw sugar and weak demand [92][93]. - **Eggs**: The main contract may weaken in an oscillating manner due to the weakening of pre - holiday demand [94][95]. - **Apples**: The futures price may continue to rise if the demand continues to improve and inventory is removed more than expected [95][96]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [97]. - **Logs**: The price is in a range of 750 - 795, and a double - selling strategy of put at 750 and call at 800 can be considered [98][101].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：二鸟说 别只盯着科技 2026开年以来，A股春季攻势全面展开，一举站上4100点。在这波行情中，以AI为主导的科技股无疑是 造富神话主战场，而顺着科技产业升级与全球经济复苏的主线，大宗商品自去年以来的赚钱效应也同样 亮眼，值得深入研究。 图表1：2025年以来，几类代表性资产涨跌情况 不过，大宗商品内部的行情节奏并不完全一致，如果对细分品种没有独到的认知和理解，很难真正捕捉 到大宗商品行情。 一、 2025年以来大宗商品的轮动节奏 回顾2025年的行情表现，大宗商品呈现出明显的分化格局，金、银、铜价频创历史新高，钢铁、化工处 于底部起涨阶段，原油、煤炭等则仍在低位徘徊。 图表2：大宗商品主要类型 | 大宗商品分类 | | | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 贵金属 | | 工业金属 | | | 能源商品 | 原油 | | | 煤炭 | | 农产品 | 大豆、 玉米、小麦等 | | | 生猪 | | 化工 | 橡胶、塑料等 | 1、贵金属呈现出明显的领跑特征。以黄金为例，这轮黄金的涨幅是远超很多人的预期的。过去二十 年，市 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/26 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/19 | 2180 | 2290 | 2260 | 2440 | 9 | 0 | 366 | 2750 | 2820 | 100 | -70 | | 2026/01/20 | 2180 | 2280 | 2260 | 2430 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 2750 | 2820 | 105 | -70 | | 2026/01/21 | 2180 | 2280 | 2260 | 2430 | -3 | 0 | 326 | 2750 | 2820 | 104 | -70 | | 2026/01/22 | 2180 | 2300 | 2260 | 2430 | 5 | -10 | 3 ...