Group 1: Grid Trading Strategy Overview - The essence of "grid trading" is a high buy low sell trading strategy, which does not predict market trends but utilizes natural price fluctuations within a certain range to generate profits, suitable for frequently fluctuating markets [3][12] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include: selecting on-market targets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being relatively suitable for grid trading [3][12] Group 2: ETF Grid Strategy Target Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010.SH) benefits from improved liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market and the return of quality listed companies, making it a cost-effective investment tool in a low-interest-rate environment. In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 731.2 billion, equivalent to 91% of last year's total net purchases [3][13] - The Robotics ETF (562500.SH) is positioned in a strategic core area of China's technological innovation and high-end manufacturing, supported by government policies aimed at accelerating technological autonomy and industrial cluster breakthroughs [4][16] - The Chip ETF (159995.SZ) sees a temporary easing of overseas suppression factors, while "domestic substitution" remains the long-term development theme, with significant investments planned in critical areas of the semiconductor industry [5][17] - The Infrastructure ETF (516950.SH) is expected to benefit from fiscal expansion and the implementation of major projects, with the government planning to issue special bonds totaling CNY 1.3 trillion and project lists supporting 1,459 projects in key areas [6][18]

Economic Overview - In July, the industrial added value growth rate is expected to decline slightly to approximately 5.8% from June's 6.8%[1] - The total retail sales growth rate is projected to recover slightly to around 5.2% in July[2] - Urban fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to decrease to 2.6% from 2.8% in June[3] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to drop to around -0.2% in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline is projected to narrow to 3.3%[4] - Agricultural product prices show mixed trends, with pork prices rising 2.2% month-on-month but down 18.4% year-on-year[4] Trade and Exports - July exports are expected to grow by about 8% year-on-year, supported by pre-tariff exemption "rush exports"[5] - Import growth is projected to decline to -2% from June's 1.1%[5] Financing and Credit - New RMB loans in July are estimated at approximately 220 billion, lower than last year's 260 billion[6] - The total social financing (TSF) is expected to increase by about 1.3 trillion, continuing to show year-on-year growth[6]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of July, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[19] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, exceeding last year's average[19] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period[19] - The asphalt inventory saw a significant decline, indicating an acceleration in physical work volume in the infrastructure sector[7] Demand Side - In July, the real estate market remained weak, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities down by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.88%[8] - The total box office revenue for movies was 84,200.00 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 99.53% but a year-on-year decline of 14.85%[8] Trade and Prices - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) rose to 1,305.40, with a month-on-month growth of 2.19%[9] - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) decreased to 1,684.07, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 16.42%[9] - The CPI showed a mild increase in consumer prices, while industrial product prices fluctuated, with PPI pressures from weak energy prices[9]

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of July, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up by 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous period[3] Inventory and Capacity Utilization - As of the fourth week of July, rebar inventory decreased by 4.29% compared to the previous period, indicating a reduction in stock levels[27] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 53.48%, up by 2.51 percentage points from the previous month, slightly above last year's average[46] - Cement clinker capacity utilization was 58.10%, down by 0.45 percentage points from the previous month, below last year's average[46] Demand Trends - In July, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 21.88%[4] - The volume of postal express collection was 3.704 billion pieces, down by 5.29% month-on-month but up by 15.14% year-on-year[4] Price Movements - The average price of cement was 338.17 yuan/ton, down by 0.33% month-on-month, below last year's average[67] - The price of rebar increased by 4.14% month-on-month to 3,310.40 yuan/ton, still below last year's average[68] - The price of asphalt rose by 0.40% month-on-month to 3,823.00 yuan/ton, above last year's average[69]

4月21日，美股开盘暴跌，三大指数集体跳水，但美国政府依然固执地挥出关税大棒，对东南亚太阳能产品征收最高3521%的关税。 东南亚国家被突如其来的关税大棒打得晕头转向，全球供应链也随之剧烈震荡，但耐人寻味的是，面对美国的关税大棒，东南亚国家非但没有屈服，反而齐 刷刷地转向中国寻求出路。 美国对东南亚四国太阳能产品征收的惩罚性关税简直高得离谱，特别是柬埔寨的3521%关税，这哪是征税啊，简直就是直接封杀，美国给出的理由是柬埔寨 企业"不配合调查"，但明眼人都看得出，这根本就是变相的市场禁入手段。 这波操作在美国国内也引发了内讧，虽然部分本土制造商拍手叫好，但美国太阳能产业协会急得跳脚，因为现在美国80%的太阳能组件都依赖进口，光这四 个国家去年就进口了129亿美元的产品，关税这么一加，成本直接上天，要么项目黄了，要么电费暴涨，倒霉的还是普通老百姓。 而且当下美国自己的太阳能产能根本跟不上，只能满足30%的需求，这边想保护本土产业，那边又要搞能源转型，结果两头不讨好，现在供应链一乱，好几 个州的清洁能源目标怕是都要泡汤。 最打脸的是，消息一出，美国太阳能企业股价集体跳水，First Solar跌了3%，SunPo ...

Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence with weak goods consumption and strong service consumption, particularly in travel and cinema during the summer[1] - Automotive retail sales have slightly declined, while wholesale volumes have increased, indicating seasonal and promotional impacts on consumption[9] - Food prices continue to drop, with agricultural products seeing an expanding year-on-year decline, particularly affecting premium products like Moutai liquor[9] Investment Insights - As of August 2, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached CNY 2.8 trillion, marking the second-highest issuance pace since 2022, with July alone contributing CNY 616.94 billion[17] - New housing transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, but the year-on-year decline in average transaction area has widened from 14.8% to 15.4%[17] Price and Production Dynamics - Consumer prices are on a downward trend, with industrial prices also showing marginal declines, leading to a cooling of price increase expectations[36] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a slight decrease, with the South China price index dropping by 1.1% week-on-week, reflecting a shift in market supply and demand expectations[36] Import and Export Activity - Port operations have slowed due to typhoon impacts, with a year-on-year decline in the number of ships docking at ports[21] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.3% compared to the previous week, while import rates have slightly increased by 1.1%[21] Liquidity Conditions - Funding rates have decreased, with R007 down by 20.7 basis points and DR007 down by 22.8 basis points, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative liquidity environment[39] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen by 2.7 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting easing pressures in the funding market[39]

S of In F 证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 进入政策效应观察期——7月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 左观研究 宏观快评 2025年08月03日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 证券分析师:陆银波 邮箱:luyinbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360519100003 证券分析师:文若愚 3)对于企业利润与现金流。在政府化债与偿还企业欠款、财政支出规模增加、 "反内卷"下大企业对中小企业账期进行调整、居民消费回暖等因素作用下, 关注企业现金流是否能持续改善(企业存款增速、企业活期存款增速)以及企 业盈利能力是否能保持稳定(如 ROA、ROE 等指标)。这对于改善企业资产 负债表,提升企业的支出意愿(如增加费用支出、提升员工薪酬)帮助较大。 一、物价:PPI环比跌幅或明显收窄 * 预计 7月份 PPI同比从-3.6%回升至-3.5%,PPI 环比约-0.1%,较上月的-0.4% 明显收窄。预计7月份 CPI 同比约-0.1%,CPI 环比约 0.3%。PPI 环比依然为 负,一方面是物价上涨反映到 PPI 上存在一定的时 ...

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.07%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - In July, the ECI supply index averaged 50.11%, down 0.05 percentage points from June, and the demand index averaged 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - The real estate market saw a 18.6% year-on-year decline in sales area for new homes in 30 major cities, totaling 6.49 million square meters in July[1] Bond Market and Tax Adjustments - The ELI index is at -0.72%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight recovery in liquidity for the real economy[1] - The adjustment of the bond value-added tax may lead to increased allocation of funds to non-financial corporate bonds and other real economy assets[1] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the issuance of technology innovation bonds in the third quarter, focusing on structural monetary policy tools[1] Market Trends and Risks - The export index remains resilient, with port cargo throughput maintaining high levels, although there are concerns about the impact of new tariffs on re-export trade[1] - The report highlights risks including uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate market[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the Xinjiang region [5][8][9]. Core Insights - The upcoming Fourth Central Xinjiang Work Conference in 2025, coinciding with the 70th anniversary of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, is expected to catalyze significant policy support and investment in infrastructure and industry [1][12]. - Xinjiang's strategic importance, energy security, and ethnic unity are highlighted as key factors for sustained national support for high-quality development in the region [2][4]. - Major transportation infrastructure projects, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway and the New Tibet Railway, are set to accelerate, with significant investments projected [3][15]. - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is anticipated to see substantial growth, with over 800 billion yuan in planned investments by mid-2025, driven by national energy security needs [4][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in Xinjiang due to upcoming policy support and infrastructure projects, particularly in transportation and coal chemical sectors [1][3][4]. - Key companies recommended for investment include major construction firms like China Railway, China Railway Construction, and local firms such as Xinjiang Communications Construction [8][23]. Transportation Infrastructure - Significant railway projects are underway, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway with an estimated investment of 8 billion USD and the New Tibet Railway with an investment of 96 billion yuan [3][15]. - The report suggests that these projects will benefit major construction companies and local firms involved in infrastructure development [8][15]. Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical sector is projected to attract over 800 billion yuan in investments, with a significant portion already underway [4][19]. - Key players in this sector include China Chemical Engineering, Donghua Technology, and Sanwei Chemical, which are expected to benefit from the acceleration of project developments [19][23].

核心观点：展望 7 月及三季度，经济或进入政策效应释放的观察期，观察什 么？我们认为制造业投资、地产投资、地方基建投资并非下半年的经济核心关 注。居民消费、居民储蓄意愿、企业利润与现金流更为关键。这些决定了终端 物价能否顺利持续回暖、经济内生动力能否持续增强。具体而言： 1）对于消费，在补贴总规模小幅下降（后两批均为 690 亿，前两批均为 810 亿）以及实施生育补贴的综合影响下，关注消费增速能否保持稳定以及消费结 构能否进一步优化（服务、非耐用品消费、限额以下消费增速能否回升）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 进入政策效应观察期——7 月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 2）对于居民储蓄意愿。在资本市场企稳向好、房价同比降幅有所收窄的背景 下，关注居民储蓄意愿能否稳中有降。这包括对居民存款规模的观察（与收入、 GDP 相比）以及对居民存款结构的观察（是更多存放活期还是定期）。 3）对于企业利润与现金流。在政府化债与偿还企业欠款、财政支出规模增加、 "反内卷"下大企业对中小企业账期进行调整、居民消费回暖等因素作用下， 关注企业现金流是否能持续改善（企业存款增速、企业活期存款增速）以及企 业盈利能力是否能保持稳 ...