证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 28 年 月 日 海尔智家（600690.SH） 经营稳健，发布 A 股回购计划 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报。公司 2024 年实现营业总收入 2859.81 亿 元，同比增长 4.29%；实现归母净利润 187.41 亿元，同比增长 12.92%。 其中，2024Q4 单季营业总收入为 830.1 亿元，同比增长 9.88%；归母净 利润为 35.87 亿元，同比增长 3.96%。 2024 年品类增速拆分：空调、冰箱、厨电、水家电、洗衣机收入分别同 比+7.44%、+1.96%、-1.15%、+4.93%、+2.87%。 盈利能力稳步提升，财务费率受利息支出影响。毛利率：2024 年/2024Q4 公司毛利率 27.80%/20.34%，2024 年毛利率可比口径下提升 0.3pct。其 中国内外毛利率均有提升。费率端：2024 年销售/管理/财务费率为 11.74%/4.23%/0.34%，可比口径下同比变动-0.2pct/-0.1pct/+0.2pct。其 中销售费用率国内优化，海外持平；财务费率恶化主要系海外加息导致利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Haier Smart Home [5] Core Views - Haier Smart Home reported a total revenue of 285.98 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.74 billion yuan, up 12.92% year-on-year [1] - The company has announced a share repurchase plan, intending to buy back shares worth 1 to 2 billion yuan at a price not exceeding 40 yuan per share, reflecting confidence in its future development [2] - The dividend payout ratio is set to increase from 45% in 2024 to 48% in 2025, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 83.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.88%, with a net profit of 3.59 billion yuan, up 3.96% year-on-year [1] - The revenue growth rates for key product categories in 2024 were as follows: air conditioners +7.44%, refrigerators +1.96%, kitchen appliances -1.15%, water appliances +4.93%, and washing machines +2.87% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 27.80%, with a net margin of 6.85% [1] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The operating cash flow for Q4 2024 was 12.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.04%, with cash received from sales amounting to 97.32 billion yuan, up 34.67% [2] - As of Q4 2024, contract liabilities increased by 40.35% year-on-year and 207.82% quarter-on-quarter, while inventory rose by 8.91% year-on-year and 11.94% quarter-on-quarter [2] Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 21.08 billion yuan, 23.72 billion yuan, and 26.36 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 12.5%, and 11.1% [2]

摘要 1、今天，A股成功收红，半导体板块回暖，中药、医疗等板块涨幅居前。 2、刚刚，央行指出将根据国内外经济金融形势择机降准降息。外资集体看好，后市会怎么走？ 3、即将迎来的"四月决断"会如何演绎？复盘历史，这些板块在4月上涨概率超过80%！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1325 篇白话财经- - 在昨晚美股大跌的背景下，A股港股走出了独立行情，集体收涨。 但是仅有不足1.2万亿的成交额让今天的A股有些"食之无味"了。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/3/27，不作投资推荐） 分析人士认为，随着国内宏观调控、促增长政策持续落地推进，A股短期调整后将重拾升势，风格将进入再平衡阶段。 A股回暖，两大利好来袭！ 对于今天市场的回暖，分析人士认为，主要有两大原因。 一个，是在外围不确定性下，外资集体看好中国市场。 昨晚，特朗普宣布对所有进口汽车征收25%关税，引发美股市场回调。 分析人士认为，由于美联储缩表还在持续，全球资产现在似乎都处于一个存量博弈的状态，在美股表现出色的时候，中国资产往往相对落后，反之亦然。 而外资集体唱多中国股市，也超出了预期，让市场情绪开始回暖。 高盛在最新的报告中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Asset replacement is a significant method for listed companies' restructuring, and its impact can be either positive or negative depending on the quality of the assets involved and the specific terms of the transaction [1]. Group 1: Understanding Asset Replacement - Asset replacement refers to the exchange of certain assets owned by a listed company with other entities, akin to two individuals swapping items, but in this case, it involves company assets [1]. Group 2: Dimensions of Asset Replacement - **Quality of Inbound Assets**: For instance, Gree Electric successfully replaced its compressor business with a more promising smart equipment business in 2012, leading to a significant increase in market value [4]. Conversely, ST Galaxy faced severe performance decline due to an improper asset swap in 2015, which nearly led to its delisting [4]. - **Reasonableness of Transaction Pricing**: Vanke Real Estate's acquisition of quality property assets from Shenzhen Metro in 2019 exemplifies a fair and reasonable asset swap, facilitated by professional evaluations, resulting in a win-win situation [5]. - **Strategic Alignment**: Successful asset replacements should align with the company's long-term development strategy. Midea Group's multiple asset swaps have allowed it to transition from traditional home appliance manufacturing to smart manufacturing and industrial internet, maintaining a competitive edge [7]. Group 3: Investor Considerations - **Understanding Motivations**: Investors should analyze the true intentions behind a company's asset replacement. If the goal is to improve asset quality and operational efficiency, it is generally a positive signal; however, if it aims to embellish financial statements or evade delisting risks, caution is warranted [8]. - **Focusing on Details**: Key aspects to monitor include the profitability and growth potential of the inbound assets and the fairness of the transaction pricing [9]. - **Monitoring Post-Integration**: Even quality asset replacements can fail to deliver expected returns if post-integration is mishandled. Continuous tracking of the company's integration progress and the realization of synergies is advisable [10]. Group 4: Case Studies - **China Ping An**: In 2016, the company divested its traditional banking business and acquired fintech assets, facilitating a transition from traditional finance to tech-driven finance, significantly enhancing its valuation [12]. - **Recent Example in New Energy Vehicles**: A recent case involved a new energy vehicle company that swapped its traditional fuel vehicle business for electric vehicle-related assets, aligning with industry trends and likely yielding positive outcomes [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Viewpoints - Haier Smart Home is leading the industry in various regions, achieving significant growth and maintaining a market share of 28% in China, while also ranking first in the US, Australia, and Japan [1][2]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and brand diversification, with a strong emphasis on AI technology to enhance product iterations and user experience [2][3]. - Haier's global strategy includes expanding production capacity and enhancing platform collaboration, with overseas revenue expected to exceed 140 billion RMB in 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Haier Smart Home has been recognized as a leading global brand in large home appliances, maintaining the top retail volume position for 16 consecutive years [1]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the Chinese market is projected to see a doubling of sales scale over seven years, with a focus on high-end branding and digital transformation [2]. Product Innovation - The launch of the "AI Eye" series marks a significant advancement into the fourth stage of AI autonomous intelligence, with ongoing development in home service robots [2]. Global Strategy - The company is enhancing its global footprint with production capacity exceeding 160 million units and ongoing capacity construction in Thailand and Egypt [3]. Financial Projections - Expected net profit for the parent company is projected at 19.11 billion RMB for 2024, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13.6x [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% [10]. Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances is positioned favorably with multiple advantages including an upward trend in fundamentals, high dividends, and low valuation. The company is expected to benefit from the long-term national subsidy policy for high-end air conditioners, which has significantly boosted its retail market share since Q4 2024 [1][2]. - The introduction of the Jinghong air conditioner brand aims to penetrate the lower-tier market, leveraging Gree's strong brand reputation to create a second growth curve [1][9]. - Recent share purchases by the dealer group Jinghai Interconnect reflect a stabilization of channel relationships and confidence in Gree's long-term development [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the increasing focus on high dividend yields in the current investment environment, suggesting that Gree's low valuation presents a rebound opportunity [1]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The long-term national subsidy policy has positively impacted the high-end air conditioning market, leading to a notable rebound in Gree's market share. The subsidy for high-efficiency air conditioners can reach up to 20%, stimulating consumer demand for high-performance products [2]. - Gree's market share showed a decline in the first three quarters of 2024 but rebounded by 2.00 percentage points in Q4, with further growth of 4.63% in January-February 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for Gree Electric Appliances are as follows: - Revenue (in million): 188,988.38 in 2022, projected to reach 232,403.65 by 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 5.35% [3]. - Net Profit (in million): 24,506.62 in 2022, expected to grow to 37,297.65 by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 7.72% [3]. - Gross Margin: Expected to increase from 26.04% in 2022 to 31.20% by 2026 [3]. - P/E Ratio: Projected to decrease from 10.39 in 2022 to 6.83 by 2026, indicating improving valuation [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Gree plans to launch the Jinghong air conditioner brand to target the engineering and low-price market segments, aiming to regain market share in the lower-tier market where competitors have been gaining ground [9]. - The company maintains a robust dividend policy, with a proposed dividend of 2.38 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 131.42 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend rate of 45.29% and a yield exceeding 6% [10]. Industry Outlook - The global air conditioning demand is expected to remain stable, with domestic sales projected to grow by 1.9% to 10.38 million units in 2025, driven by the national subsidy policy [7]. - Gree is well-positioned to benefit from the overall industry demand increase, particularly in the high-end segment [7].

今天的深v挺刺激的，午休前那波下跌直坠谷底，当时又是4000多只个股待涨，场内一片哭爹喊娘，还以为今天又寄了。结果午休回来a股突然支棱起来， 一路向上反弹，截止收盘已经收复了大部分失地，虽然中位数依然下跌了0.63%，但老实说这个跌幅已经在可接受范围。 …… 2、美国不排除武力控制巴拿马运河和格陵兰岛，理由是出于经济安全考虑。巴拿马运河处于中北美洲，是连接太平洋和大西洋的重要航路，对美国确实 有着重大战略意义。只是巴拿马是一个正式的主权国家，美国张嘴就要对方国家的核心资产，这么强势的言论给大家都看傻了。 至于上午下跌的原因不明，起码我没找到明确的导火索，有人说是因为上午政府公布的消费刺激计划低于预期，但从市场的反馈来看其实还可以。 今天小家电板块+4%，两市所有行业第一；电商+2.14%，厨卫电器+1.77%、零售+1.68%、白色家电+1.56%，分别排2-5位，这些消费受益板块全天跑赢大 盘中位数，如果真对今天刺激计划不满意的话就不会涨了。 总之上午跌的莫名其妙，下午的反弹也没名没姓的，我特地去看过几个大指数的etf，没有明显的成交量异动，基本可以排除是某队救市，看起来就是市 场自发的反弹修复。 今天的深 ...