1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal characteristics and calendar effects of bond market institutional behavior are important areas of bond market microstructure research. By combining the calendar effects with the bond investment patterns of different institutions, investors can seize structural opportunities, improve investment win - rates, and enhance return levels [6][9][14]. - Among different institutions, bank wealth management is most significantly affected by seasonality, followed by commercial banks and insurance companies, while the seasonality of public funds is relatively weak [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bank Wealth Management - **Wealth Management Scale**: The scale of bank wealth management shows a seasonal pattern of "shrinking at the end of the quarter and growing at the beginning of the quarter". Quarterly, the scale surges most significantly in the second and third quarters. Annually, the first quarter is mainly affected by the Spring Festival, and the fourth quarter enters a seasonal off - peak. Weekly, the significant scale changes are concentrated in the last week of the quarter - end month and the first week of the quarter - beginning month [16][19][20]. - **Wealth Management Bond Allocation**: The bond - allocation intensity of wealth management increases in months of large - scale growth and the year - end "pre - emptive" period. It decreases at the end of the quarter and before the Spring Festival. The months with large bond - allocation proportions are April, July, August, May, November, and October [24][25]. - **Implications for Bond Investment**: In the bond - allocation months of the second and third quarters, short - term products such as certificates of deposit, short - term financing bonds, and short - term policy - bank bonds within 1 year are the main allocation varieties. In the year - end "pre - emptive" stage, the bond - allocation term is extended. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities of varieties that wealth management focuses on and has pricing power [28][36]. Commercial Banks - **Seasonal Patterns of Liabilities and Supervision**: The liability growth of commercial banks mainly occurs in the first half of the year, with a "good start" in the first quarter. Deposits usually grow at the end of the quarter and decline at the beginning of the quarter. Bank bond allocation is restricted by performance growth, regulatory assessment, and the seasonality of fiscal bond issuance [7][41]. - **Large Banks**: Bond - allocation increases when the deposit - loan gap is high and the supply of interest - rate bonds is large. At the end of the quarter after the large - scale supply of long - term bonds, pay attention to the opportunities of steepening the treasury bond curve through "buying short and selling long" and be vigilant about the additional adjustment pressure on long - term varieties. When the bond market is continuously adjusting, large banks may sell old bonds to realize floating profits at the end of the quarter [55][58][64]. - **Rural Commercial Banks**: Bond - allocation is large in the first quarter due to the "good start" and in the year - end pre - emptive stage. In the second half of the year, they allocate bonds evenly in non - quarter - end months. Tracking the behavior of rural commercial banks is a good leading indicator to judge whether the year - end pre - emptive market will start [65][72][75]. Insurance - **Seasonal Influencing Factors**: Insurance premium income has an obvious "good start" at the beginning of the year. In the past two years, the reduction of the预定 interest rate has led to super - seasonal growth. Some insurance companies may adjust their positions at the end of the quarter to improve solvency assessment indicators due to the "Solvency II" assessment [79][80][85]. - **Insurance Bond - Allocation Seasonality**: Bond - allocation peaks usually occur in March and December. In the past two years, due to the reduction of the预定 interest rate, there has been super - seasonal bond - allocation in August and September [89]. - **Implications for Bond Investment**: Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds in March. Also, focus on the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 30 - 10 - year treasury bonds after the reduction of the预定 interest rate [92][95][98]. Public Funds - **General Situation**: Public funds' bond investment follows the market and has relatively weak seasonality. However, some products and individual time points show certain seasonal characteristics [100]. - **Money Market Funds**: Affected by the end - of - quarter assessment of banks and liquidity management needs, the scale of money market funds declines at the end of the quarter and recovers slowly after the quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of declining yields of certificates of deposit during the bond - allocation windows in mid - March, late June, and late December [4]. - **Amortized - cost - method Bond Funds**: During the open - period peak, pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of policy - bank bonds with corresponding maturities [4][10]. - **Bond - type Funds**: The second quarter is the peak period of bond - allocation throughout the year. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 5 - year old policy - bank bonds and 2 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds. At the end of the year, there is a "pre - emptive" behavior, and attention should be paid to varieties with good trading attributes such as 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, 30 - year treasury bonds, and 5 - year secondary capital bonds [4][10].

Core Insights - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in China's insurance industry is experiencing a qualitative leap, transitioning from conceptual exploration to industrial implementation in the first half of 2025 [1] - Intelligent transformation is becoming the core driving force for the industry's upgrade, fundamentally changing traditional insurance business models [1] Group 1: Underwriting and Claims Processing - The underwriting process is undergoing deep transformation with AI, addressing long-standing challenges in processing unstructured data [1] - Ping An Property & Casualty has achieved an intelligent issuance rate of 81.2% in car insurance, reducing average processing time to under one minute [1] - ZhongAn Insurance's cloud core system "Wujieshan" generated 6.699 billion policies in the first half of the year, with an automated underwriting rate of 99% [1] - Claims processing has seen significant improvements, with Ping An's "111 Fast Claim" service achieving a 59% share of instant claims, and injury claims automated processing rate reaching 55% [1][2] Group 2: Customer Service and Risk Assessment - China Life's digital underwriting system has an intelligent review rate of 95.8%, and its new intelligent customer service has an accuracy rate exceeding 95% [2] - Sunshine Insurance's remote service has achieved a 65% automation rate in the entire process, with an 82% satisfaction rate for intelligent services [2] - ZhongAn's "Lingxi Platform" deployed nearly 110 intelligent robots, handling 450 million calls in the first half of the year [2] - Ping An's anti-fraud system intercepted losses of 6.44 billion yuan, a 6% year-on-year increase [2] Group 3: Strategic Development and Future Outlook - Many insurance companies are elevating AI to a core strategic level, with China Pacific Insurance emphasizing "AI+" as a key strategy [3] - The insurance industry is transitioning from "scale-driven" to "efficiency-driven" and "value-driven" models due to the deep integration of AI technology [3] - The intelligent transformation is not only enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs but also paving new paths for high-quality development in the insurance sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance has experienced a decline in stock price, with a cumulative drop of 7.96% over the past four days, reflecting market volatility and potential investor concerns [1][2]. Company Overview - Xinhua Life Insurance Co., Ltd. was established on September 28, 1996, and listed on December 16, 2011. The company is headquartered in Beijing and primarily engages in life insurance business [1]. - The revenue composition of Xinhua Insurance includes traditional insurance at 59.47%, dividend insurance at 35.37%, and other businesses at 5.89% [1]. Fund Holdings - Penghua Fund has a significant position in Xinhua Insurance, with its Penghua Research Selected Mixed Fund (007146) holding 67,000 shares, unchanged from the previous period, representing 1.22% of the fund's net value [2]. - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 38,900 yuan today, with a total floating loss of 363,800 yuan during the four-day decline [2]. - The Penghua Research Selected Mixed Fund was established on May 6, 2019, with a current size of 321 million yuan. It has achieved a year-to-date return of 30.84% and a one-year return of 50.95% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced a rebound on September 4, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 1.53% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index increasing by 1.03% [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei index closed up by 641.38 points at 42580.27 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 31.28 points to close at 3080.17 points [1] - The market showed a volatile upward trend during the day, influenced by the previous day's decline and the rise of the Nasdaq index in New York [1] Sector Analysis - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with banking, non-ferrous metals, and insurance sectors leading the increases [1] - Conversely, sectors such as mining, rubber products, and chemicals experienced slight declines [1] Investor Sentiment - Market participants noted a shift in investor focus from growth stocks to value stocks, reflecting changing market dynamics [1]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 （3）河南、山东、陕西等区域整体估值相对较高，区域整体估值在 2.23-2.34%区间，2.2%以上债券占比在 44-60%区间。其中山东区域 2.2%以 上存量超 8000 亿元，公募非永续存量超 2900 亿元。 （4）重庆、天津、云南、广西、贵州等区域，2.2%以上债券占比在 38-72% 区间，贵州省占比居高。重庆区域 2.2%以上债券集中在 3 年期以上隐含 AA(2)，天津、云南、广西区域在隐含 AA 仍有一定存量。 聚焦省内，2.2%以上城投债如何分布？ 我们进一步聚焦省内，仍根据上文所梳理的 4 个梯队来观察，聚焦 2.2%以 上债券，并关注其中的公募非永续债： （4）重庆、天津、云南、广西、贵州。 2.2%以上，产业债有哪些？ 2.2%以上信用债一览 2.2%以上，城投债有哪些？ 截至 2025 年 8 月 29 日，全国存量城投债规模为 185744 亿元，估值在 2.2% 以上存量债有 60791 亿元，占比 32.7%；估值在 2.2%以上的公募非永续城 投债有 25218 亿元，占整体存量债比重 13.6%。分省来看： （1）江苏、 ...

"官员跨界保险业"再添一例。 近日，四川金融监管局发布关于李世宏国宝人寿保险股份有限公司（以下简称"国宝人寿"）董事、董事 长任职资格的批复表示，核准李世宏国宝人寿董事、董事长的任职资格。 官网显示，2025年是国宝人寿成立的第七个年头。作为唯一总部设在四川省成都市的全国性人身保险公 司，国宝人寿股东包括四川金融控股集团有限公司、四川发展（控股）有限责任公司、成都先进制造产 业投资有限公司等9家省内外优秀企业，注册资本19.8亿元。成立之初曾被市场寄予厚望，然而其发展 之路并非坦途。 李世宏资料图。 官方简历显示，这位重庆籍70后经济学博士，曾历任四川银监局法规处处长、自贡市副市长、四川省财 政厅副厅长等职，此次跨界掌舵险企引发行业广泛关注。 国宝人寿迎新任"女掌门" 据国宝人寿官网简历显示，李世宏，女，1973年5月出生，中共党员，博士研究生学历，经济学博士学 位，高级经济师。其职业生涯始于1999年7月，早期任职于中国人民银行成都分行，先后在银行监管二 处、银行管理处等部门担任干部、副主任科员、科长等职。 2003年银监系统分设后，李世宏转入原四川银监局，历任办公室综合科负责人、科长，办公室（党委办 公室 ...

Core Insights - The strategic transaction involving the acquisition of Beijing Huiju, one of Asia's largest shopping centers, has been completed with a total valuation of 16 billion yuan [1] - The leading investor in this transaction is Taikang Life, which heads a consortium of insurance capital with a total fund size of 8 billion yuan [1][3] - Taikang Life has been actively expanding its footprint in commercial real estate, with investments exceeding 40 billion yuan in investment properties since 2024 [2][4] Group 1: Transaction Details - The initial phase of the transaction includes three iconic commercial properties located in Wuxi, Beijing, and Wuhan, with a combined valuation of 16 billion yuan [1] - The fund led by Taikang Life consists of 8 billion yuan, with Taikang Life contributing 3 billion yuan and other insurance companies collectively investing 3 billion yuan [1] - Ingka Group, the parent company of IKEA, plans to sell ten Huiju shopping centers in mainland China, with the first three projects being part of this transaction [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Taikang Life has previously engaged in commercial real estate through a fund model, including a 2.234 billion yuan Pre-REIT fund established in collaboration with Vanke and other partners [2] - The company has consistently increased its investment in real estate since 2017, with figures rising from 22.682 billion yuan in 2020 to 41.077 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The trend of insurance capital investing in commercial real estate aligns with the industry's shift towards alternative assets, seeking stable cash flow and potential appreciation [3][4] Group 3: Market Context - The growing interest in commercial real estate by insurance funds is driven by the need for stable investment channels that provide consistent rental income [4] - The ongoing economic development and urbanization in China further enhance the attractiveness of commercial real estate investments [4]

Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is rapidly integrating into various sectors, becoming a new driver for economic growth, but it also faces challenges such as technical risks and operational disputes [1][2] - The establishment of the first low-altitude economic mutual insurance body in Chongqing aims to address the insurance supply-demand mismatch in this emerging industry [1][5] Group 1: Low-Altitude Economy Overview - The low-altitude economy involves activities below 1,000 meters, including drone logistics, agricultural protection, and urban air traffic, with the drone industry accounting for approximately 85% of this market [2] - China's low-altitude economy market is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, supported by favorable government policies [2][3] Group 2: Insurance Demand and Development - The safety of low-altitude operations is critical, as risks such as signal interference and network attacks are more complex than ground activities [2] - Insurance companies are actively developing products tailored to the low-altitude economy, with over 30% of property insurance firms already engaged in related business [3][5] Group 3: Chongqing's Initiatives - Chongqing has launched a comprehensive action plan to promote the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy, with 147 related enterprises established and 40 key projects planned, amounting to an investment of 28.84 billion yuan [4][5] Group 4: Insurance Product Development - The mutual insurance body has developed the "Yudikongbao" insurance products, focusing on key risk areas such as drone liability and network security, providing coverage for 16 low-altitude economy enterprises [5] - The core goal of the mutual insurance body is to address the insurance supply-demand mismatch in the low-altitude economy [5] Group 5: Challenges in Insurance Sector - The insurance sector faces challenges in product pricing and standardization, as current pricing models are based on historical data, which is insufficient for the diverse applications of drones [6][7] - There is a lack of standardized risk definitions and industry norms, complicating the formulation of insurance terms and claims processes [6][7] Group 6: Talent Development - The low-altitude economy requires professionals with expertise in aviation technology, insurance actuarial models, and risk management, but there is a shortage of such talent [7] - Educational institutions are encouraged to develop courses related to low-altitude economy insurance to foster a skilled workforce [7]

Core Viewpoint - The development of marine economy in Qingdao is significantly supported by financial services, enabling companies like Luhai Feng to establish advanced marine ranches and logistics systems, thereby enhancing the overall marine industry in the region [1][2][3]. Group 1: Marine Ranch Development - Luhai Feng has invested 1.2 billion yuan to build over 300 intelligent deep-water net cages, capable of harvesting 40 tons of fish each [1]. - The marine ranch covers over 50,000 acres and includes a recreational fishing area of 1,534 hectares, making it the largest marine ranch in Qingdao [2]. - The company has spent over ten years restoring marine ecology by deploying artificial reefs and cultivating seaweed, which has improved fish yield [2]. Group 2: Financial Support - Financial institutions, particularly the Bank of Communications Qingdao Branch, have provided various financial services, including bank loans and cross-border settlements, to support Luhai Feng's operations [1][3]. - The bank has facilitated a syndicate loan for the construction of Luhai Feng's cold chain logistics base, which includes a total cold storage capacity of 600,000 tons [3]. - As of June 2025, the Bank of Communications Qingdao Branch reported a credit balance of 23.771 billion yuan for marine enterprises, an increase of 2.858 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [4]. Group 3: Insurance and Risk Management - Insurance plays a crucial role in supporting the sustainable development of the marine economy, providing essential risk coverage for deep-sea operations [5][6]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between China Pacific Insurance and the National Deep Sea Base Management Center, covering risks up to 1.5 billion yuan for deep-sea equipment and research personnel [6]. - The insurance sector in Qingdao has seen a 25% year-on-year increase in premium income from marine-related insurance, amounting to 310 million yuan [6]. Group 4: Diverse Financial Products - Qingdao has developed a comprehensive marine financial product manual, featuring 177 specialized products from 33 financial institutions, addressing the diverse needs of marine enterprises [7]. - The financial services include specialized loans, blue bonds, project financing, and various types of marine insurance [7]. - As of June 2025, the marine loan balance in Qingdao reached 144.905 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.47% [8]. Group 5: Government and Regulatory Support - The Qingdao Financial Regulatory Bureau is actively guiding financial institutions to support high-quality development in the marine economy, including the deployment of financial service specialists to key enterprises [8]. - A financial service expert team has been established to provide comprehensive support, including policy consultation and risk management [8]. - The regulatory body aims to enhance financial policies and explore innovative marine financial products to better serve the marine industry [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **RMB (Renminbi) exchange rate**, and the **impact of U.S. monetary policy** on global markets, particularly focusing on **A-shares** and **bond markets**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy typically weakens the dollar and lowers U.S. Treasury yields, which is expected to benefit gold. However, recent market behavior has diverged from this logic, with the dollar showing signs of recovery and Treasury yields stabilizing around 4.25% [1][3][11]. 2. **RMB Appreciation**: The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to boost market risk appetite, particularly in the context of de-dollarization. However, caution is advised regarding extreme events like the UK fiscal storm that could trigger global asset volatility, particularly affecting Hong Kong stocks [1][4][5]. 3. **External and Internal Influences**: The RMB's recent performance is influenced by both external factors (like the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields) and internal factors (such as domestic economic conditions). The stability of the dollar around 98 and Treasury yields around 4.2-4.25 has allowed for independent market movements [2][6]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite**: The RMB's appreciation is linked to increased market risk appetite, driven by a weak dollar and the ongoing U.S.-China economic dynamics. Historical extreme events should be considered, as they can lead to significant market adjustments [4][5][23]. 5. **Future RMB Exchange Rate Expectations**: The RMB is expected to appreciate further, potentially falling below 7 by year-end, driven by stronger-than-expected exports and anticipated Fed rate cuts. The central bank may intervene to prevent rapid fluctuations to protect export-oriented businesses [11][23]. 6. **Inventory Cycle and Economic Indicators**: Recent PMI data indicates a mixed picture, with supply-side strength but weak demand. Companies are preemptively stocking up due to concerns over rising prices, which may not reflect genuine demand recovery [9][10][12][13]. 7. **Stock and Bond Market Dynamics**: There has been a noticeable decoupling between stock and bond markets, with funds shifting from bonds to equities, leading to upward pressure on stock prices. This trend may face challenges if retail investors do not significantly enter the market [15]. 8. **Investment Strategy in Current Environment**: Suggested investment areas include financial insurance, gold, domestic coal, and photovoltaic sectors, as well as consumer services and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields [18]. 9. **RMB Internationalization**: The discussion highlights the ongoing efforts towards RMB internationalization, including the development of stablecoins and digital RMB, with a focus on cross-border trade and financial infrastructure [22]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Potential Risks**: The potential for short-term declines in global risk appetite due to external shocks, such as political instability in France and fiscal issues in the UK, should be monitored closely [5][6]. 2. **Liquidity and Market Dynamics**: The central bank's response to potential hot money inflows could significantly impact liquidity and interest rates, affecting both the bond and equity markets [7][8]. 3. **Long-term Economic Policies**: The effectiveness of policy measures aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting growth, particularly in infrastructure investment, remains a critical area of focus [19][20].