gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库存表现中性。沪铝站稳22000元打开上方空间，震荡偏强趋势或有一定延续。 (铸造铝合金) 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调200元至21100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整仍未明确，行业库存 和交易所仓单均处于高位水平。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金跟涨乏力，与沪铝价差扩大至千元以上，关 注年末可能存在收窄空间。 (氧化铝) (原油) 油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. Some sectors are affected by policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, while others are influenced by geopolitical and macro - economic factors. For example, the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - long term, while the LPG market is currently strong but may not be sustainable [10][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Some commodities are judged as trend空头 (such as烧碱), some as震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and trend多头. For example,烧碱 is in a trend - bearish state, while中证1000指数期货 is in an oscillating and bullish - biased state [2]. - **Quantitative Analysis**: Some commodities are classified as偏空 (e.g.,沪锌), 震荡 (e.g.,沪金), and偏多 (e.g.,焦煤) based on technical indicators such as volume and price [4]. 2. Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and temporarily wait and see. A - share market shows differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3875.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.01%. The trading volume is 1.56 trillion yuan. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is further heating up [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to have a wide - range oscillating trend. Pay attention to the curve steepening in the medium term. The capital is loose, and the bond market has been falling, with the long - end driving the short - end interest - rate curve to become steeper [9]. 3. Black Commodities - **Steel and Ore**: In the short term, they will oscillate and consolidate, and in the medium - long term, maintain a bearish view when the price is high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the steel mills' profits are at a low level. The iron ore is relatively strong, while the raw materials such as coal and coke are weak [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: In the short term, they may oscillate and consolidate. Pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety supervision, and changes in downstream molten - iron output [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron is stronger than manganese silicon. It is recommended to hold the long - silicon - iron and short - manganese - silicon position. For silicon iron, hold the long position, and for manganese silicon, maintain a bearish view when the price is high [14]. 4. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Wait and see. The supply has recovered, but the upstream's willingness to start production has weakened after the cost increase. - **Glass**: In the short term, try to go long when the price is low, and leave the market flexibly when the sentiment changes. The market expects an increase in cold - repair of the supply side, and pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans [15]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [17]. - **Lead**: The social inventory has decreased to a 15 - month low. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions cautiously [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it will oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand is good [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will continue to oscillate, and it is possible to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices. Polysilicon will also oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see and operate cautiously [22]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the demand has not fully recovered. The high cost supports the price to oscillate and rebound [24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure. The domestic new - crop production is increasing, and the import cost is low. It is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term [25]. - **Eggs**: For the near - month contracts, adopt an oscillating strategy. The 01 contract is recommended to stop loss and wait and see. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible shortage in inventory but are under pressure at the current high valuation [26]. - **Apples**: The price will oscillate. The出库 volume has slightly decreased recently, and the spot price is stable [27]. - **Corn**: The short - term 01 contract will maintain a high - level oscillation, and the far - month contracts are likely to be weak [29]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable [30]. - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. Hold short positions in the near - month contracts. In the long term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to the future pig price [31]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although there is short - term support, it is in a long - term downward trend. The supply - demand relationship is expected to be oversupplied, and the short - term upward space is limited [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical influence [34]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it will oscillate weakly. It is recommended that industrial customers hedge in time [35]. - **Rubber**: The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. Unilaterally, wait and see [36]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the sentiment fades, it will oscillate. Be cautious about chasing up or down, and wait and see unilaterally [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - month contracts will oscillate weakly, and the far - month contracts may be slightly bullish if the inventory is removed smoothly [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, maintain a bearish and oscillating view, and avoid going long in the near - month contracts [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The supply - demand structure is generally stable, and the price is mainly determined by the cost. Pay attention to the interval opportunities of long TA and short PF and ethylene glycol reverse arbitrage [41]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The price increase is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to short at high prices [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: Temporarily wait and see. When the delivery profit is obvious, long positions can take profit appropriately [44]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure [44]. - **Urea**: The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures market is sensitive to the short - term spot trading sentiment. Adopt an intraday oscillating strategy [45].

齐鲁晚报 齐鲁壹点 李潇 "农为邦本，本固邦宁。""十四五"时期，在"突破菏泽 鲁西崛起"战略指引下，鲁西新区锚定乡村振兴总目标，以"功成不必在我"的定力和"功 成必定有我"的担当，在稳粮保供、产业提效、脱贫巩固、人才集聚、乡村提质五大领域精准发力、系统推进，绘就了一幅"产业兴旺、生态宜 居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕"的乡村振兴壮丽画卷，为全区高质量发展筑牢了"三农"根基，彰显了新时代鲁西大地的民生温度与发展 力度。 稳粮保供守底线，筑牢大国粮仓"鲁西根基"。 粮食安全是"国之大者"，全区始终扛牢粮食安全政治责任，以最坚决的态度遏制耕地"非农化"、 防止"非粮化"，通过7万亩高标准农田提升改造，为粮食生产插上"科技翅膀"，确保每年50万亩以上播种面积、4.6亿斤以上总产量的硬指标落 地生根。从61家畜禽规模化养殖基地年产2000吨以上肉蛋，到14家市级以上农业产业化龙头企业实现30亿元营收，全区构建起"粮经统筹、种 养循环、产业融合"的稳供体系，既守住了"米袋子""菜篮子"，更让农业成为有奔头的产业，彰显了鲁西作为粮食主产区的责任与担当。 产业提效强引擎，激活乡村振兴"内生动力"。 产业振兴是乡村振兴的核 ...

Core Insights - The Ningxia Boutique China Tour and Green Quality Agricultural Products Promotion Conference aims to showcase Ningxia's agricultural brand achievements and expand the market space and global influence of "Ning" branded green quality agricultural products [2] Group 1: Agricultural Quality and Branding - Ningxia's agricultural products are characterized by unique qualities derived from the Yellow River's water and the Helan Mountain's protection, leading to green, high-quality, and safe products [3] - The Helan Mountain East Slope wine region is recognized as a "golden zone," ranking first in China and fourth globally in brand value [3] - Ningxia is a leading region for goji berries, setting standards and leading in seedling and trading processes [3] - Key indicators of Ningxia milk exceed EU standards, and its beef and lamb products have been featured in state banquets due to their outstanding quality [3] Group 2: Technological Integration and Innovation - The promotion conference highlighted the integration of technology in agriculture, showcasing innovative practices in urban agriculture, digital agriculture applications, and modern planting and breeding techniques [7] - The event served as a platform for sharing practical experiences from leading agricultural enterprises in Ningxia, emphasizing the role of technology in enhancing agricultural productivity and competitiveness [7] Group 3: Market Expansion and Collaborations - The conference marked a significant step from "showcasing" to "implementation," with multiple intention cooperation agreements signed between Ningxia agricultural enterprises and organizations in digital economy services and ecological industry promotion [9] - These collaborations focus on core products such as goji berries and wine, indicating a strategic move to integrate "Ning" agricultural products into national and global supply chains through digital economy empowerment [9] Group 4: Event Highlights and Consumer Engagement - The promotion conference concluded with a tasting experience, allowing attendees to sample Ningxia's unique products, thereby enhancing consumer engagement and proximity to the brand [10] - A two-day exhibition and sales event showcased over 30 agricultural enterprises, featuring products like wine, goji berries, milk, and vegetables, further bridging the gap between Ningxia's quality agricultural products and consumers [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and the shutdown of oil mills, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the sufficient supply of soybeans and good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is in a state of high - level wide - range shock in the short term, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the supply of Australian rapeseed and soybeans may increase, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined in shock, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9,618 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2,422 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 629.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 14.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,509 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 181 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 27 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Positions: The positions of the main contract of rapeseed oil decreased by 16,785 hands to 140,400 hands; the positions of the main contract of rapeseed meal decreased by 39,429 hands to 205,310 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 6,619 hands to - 5,838 hands; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal decreased by 10,262 hands to - 45,128 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 3,792, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10,168.75 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7,750.12 yuan/ton, down 164.41 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 339 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was - 32 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,560 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,640 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,440 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, an increase of 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 0 tons, a decrease of 115,300 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 220,600 tons, an increase of 62,900 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 10,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 729 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10,200 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 100 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 355,000 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 212,600 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 9,200 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 243,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 11,200 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2.957 million tons, a decrease of 171,700 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons, a decrease of 67,400 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 51.99 billion yuan, an increase of 6.904 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.13%, down 0.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.13%, down 0.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 13.36%, down 1.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 13.36%, down 1.48% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.13%, down 1.69%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.85%, up 0.01%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 11.87%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.57%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 3, ICE rapeseed futures declined due to the decline of CBOT soybean oil futures, and traders were waiting for the annual final production report of Statistics Canada [2]. - US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply, and face competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. However, domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good, and the market is concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The US government is considering delaying the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased significantly in November with inventory accumulation pressure. However, floods in Southeast Asia have enhanced the expectation of seasonal palm oil production reduction, and Indonesia has introduced new regulations [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is tightening due to import restrictions and oil mill shutdowns, while demand is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The market is in shock in the short term, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the supply of Australian rapeseed and soybeans may increase, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined in shock, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - The rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 9030 | -25 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 88405 | -2618 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -13350 | 2244 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 659 | 35 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 808 | -12 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6.15 | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.25 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 5.4 | 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.3 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 5 | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.8 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.76 | 0.01 广东红枣特级价格(日,元/公斤) | 10.8 | ...

在2025企业家博鳌论坛期间，黑龙江省绥化市明水县委副书记、县长邓吉喆接受新华财经专访，详细解 读了当地生态优势与产业发展的深度融合路径，分享了现代农业建设成果、人文底蕴赋能发展的生动实 践，以及以 "1+1+1" 服务机制优化营商环境、打造50亿级黑豆蛋白食品产业集群的宏伟规划，全方位 展现了这座东北小城在高质量发展道路上的坚定步伐与广阔前景。 主持人：明水是国家级的"中国黑豆之乡"，农业发展成果丰硕。在博鳌论坛助力农业国际合作的背景 下，您能否分享明水在现代农业建设中的亮眼成绩，以及当地有哪些享誉全国的地理标志产品？ 邓吉喆：明水不仅是"中国黑豆之乡"，明水小米、明水干菜也都是国家地理标志产品。明水不遗余力打 造地标品牌，是为了深入贯彻黑龙江省委、省政府提出的"四个农业"，即科技农业、绿色农业、质量农 业、品牌农业的号召。在"种"的环节，明水注重提升科技含量，从品种选育到耕种防收，通过精细化管 理提高效率、降低农药化肥使用，真正实现绿色生产。在"销"的环节，着力破解"种得好却卖不好"的难 题，通过品牌建设和质量管理，让好产品卖出好价钱。总的来说，明水的现代农业是围绕"四个农业"形 成的一个全链条闭环，最终 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月4日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 土泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月4日 | | 原田 | | 现价 江苏一级 8620 8620 0 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8286 8288 -2 -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2601 334 332 2 0.60% | | 江苏1月 01+260 01+270 现货基差报价 -10 | | 8619 | | 棕榈油 | | 12月3日 12月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8720 8620 现价 广东24度 100 1.16% | | 8720 0.11% 期价 P2601 8730 10 | | 基差 P2601 -10 -100 90 90.00% | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+0 50 ត | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9195.1 9091.7 103.4 1.14% | | 盘面进口利润 -372 -93 -25.14% 广州港1月 -465 | | 仓单 ...

【国富期货早间看点】市场预计马棕11月库存为266万吨 阿根廷 25/26年度大豆产量预计为4690万吨 20251204 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月4日 07:57 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4130.00 | -0. 02 | -0. 63 | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62. 75 | 0.58 | -0. 35 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 59.11 | 0. 89 | -0. 15 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1116. 25 | -0. 69 | -0. 53 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 311.20 | -0. 13 | -0.26 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 51. 71 | -1. 65 | -1. 11 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 90 | -0. 44 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7 ...

央视网消息：在江西新余，初冬时节，正是制作手工挂面的最佳时间。当地村民们坚守古法技艺制面，细韧的挂面不仅是舌尖上的地道美 食，更是当地的民俗与文脉传承。 一大早，在新余高新区王家下村，村民们就开始制作挂面。他们穿梭在悬挂架之间，扶着木棍两端，一扯一抖、上下往复，悬挂架上的粗 面逐渐被拉成细如银丝的挂面。 除了售卖，家家户户制作的挂面也是附近的村民们逢年过节走亲访友的必备礼物。如今，这门承载着民俗记忆的老手艺，正成为带动村民 增收的重要抓手。 河北秦皇岛：养殖扇贝迎丰收 2025年，昌黎县扇贝养殖面积已达20.3万亩，较往年增加20%，年产量突破14万吨，总产值达5.6亿元。 江苏连云港：个大肥美 11万亩生蚝迎来收获期 在晾晒两至三个小时后，挂面彻底硬化干透，廖小林将面条取下，整齐地码入竹筐，准备出售。 眼下，正值扇贝丰收的季节。在河北秦皇岛昌黎县的塔子口码头，一艘艘载满了扇贝的渔船有序进港。 在秦皇岛昌黎县塔子口的码头上，一艘艘满载扇贝的渔船陆续进港，养殖户和工人们忙着卸船装车，将收获的扇贝进行分拣、冲洗并进行 加工处理。 近年来，当地大力发展海洋设施养殖，引导扇贝养殖户采用新型筏式养殖技术。同时，采取降低 ...