Core Viewpoint - Jin控煤业's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent decline of 2.03%, while the company has experienced an overall increase of 8.48% year-to-date, indicating volatility in the coal industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jin控煤业 reported operating revenue of 5.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 876 million yuan, down 39.01% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 6.083 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.640 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 22, Jin控煤业's stock was trading at 14.01 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 23.449 billion yuan and a trading volume of 321 million yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 24.036 million yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and several mutual funds, with notable changes in shareholding among these entities [3]. - The number of shareholders has increased to 57,000, while the average circulating shares per person have decreased by 2.17% [2].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the supply and demand dynamics of the coal mining industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] - In July 2025, China's exports of coke and semi-coke reached 890,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [1] - The export value for the same period was $14.4 million, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 18.7% [1] Industry Analysis - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the coal mining industry's market potential and operational trends in China [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering high-quality services and market insights to empower investment decisions [1]

Market Performance - On September 22, the market indices experienced a slight decline, with a total trading volume of 2.35 trillion, down 820 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The market showed resilience despite the drop, with technology sectors like semiconductors and communication computing showing minor declines[1] - The coal and non-ferrous metal sectors saw significant gains, indicating stable market sentiment[1] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor, communication computing, and new energy sectors maintained upward momentum, while the robotics sector faced a larger pullback[1] - Recent developments in the tech sector, including Nvidia's investment in Intel and Huawei's AI chip plans, suggest a strengthening trend towards domestic chip production[1] Fund Flow - On September 19, the Shanghai Composite Index saw a net outflow of 13.916 billion, while the Shenzhen Composite Index had a net inflow of 6.262 billion[3] Economic Policies - Nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, announced support for community commercial infrastructure projects through REITs to enhance basic living standards[4] - The Japanese central bank indicated that a loose monetary policy environment will support economic recovery despite external challenges[7] Industry Developments - The 2025 International Low Altitude Economy Expo resulted in over 400 intended orders, including a significant deal for 500 eVTOL aircraft worth 1.75 billion USD[8] - The domestic aluminum oxide industry is accelerating lithium extraction projects, with production costs for lithium carbonate ranging from 40,000 to 80,000 CNY per ton[11]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction and adjustment, with major indices showing mixed performance [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.30%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include coal (+1.97%), non-ferrous metals (+1.19%), and building materials (+1.05%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors are automotive (-1.94%), pharmaceutical biology (-1.41%), and computer technology (-1.26%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices are photolithography (+2.09%), civil explosives (+1.70%), and lithium extraction from salt lakes (+1.10%) [3] - The lagging concept indices include reducers (-2.68%), PEEK materials (-2.65%), and humanoid robots (-2.17%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a long-term upward momentum despite short-term volatility due to profit-taking [5] - The report suggests a flexible positioning strategy, avoiding high-risk investments while focusing on sectors with favorable valuation and growth prospects, such as non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, banking, and TMT [5]

报告建议，适度宽松的货币政策再发力，考虑到受价格水平偏低影响实际利率仍较高，后续可根据经济 形势和市场情况，进一步降准降息，降低企业融资成本、降低居民负债压力，进而提升市场需求，同 时，进一步健全市场化利率调控机制，提高货币政策传导效率，有效发挥货币政策稳定物价的功能。此 外，优化信货结构，配合财政政策加大对重点领域的支持。 报告指出，"反内卷"政策初见成效，已成为中国经济结构性调整的关键举措，预计 "十五五"时期将保 持政策的连续性，依据法律法规治理企业的无序竞争行为；避免通过行政手段直接对行业及企业定价进 行干预，转而采用高效的激励办法，实现优质产品对应合理高价的良性循环。 报告还提出，同步推进收入分配、社保、统一大市场等结构性改革，通过改革释放制度红利。例如，加 快打通市场卡点堵点，加快要素市场化改革，完善市场决定要素价格机制，健全要素按贡献決定报酬机 制；加大对医疗、教育、养老、托幼、生育补贴等民生领域支出，缓解居民支出压力与未来不确定性， 增强消费预期。 报告认为，"反内卷"政策推进下，部分能源和原材料行业供需关系改善，带动行业价格水平显著改善， 8月煤炭开采、黑色金属采选冶炼等上游原材料相关环节行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices have rebounded due to non-electric demand and winter stockpiling, with significant price increases observed in various coal indices as of September 19, 2025 [10][11]. - The report notes a slight recovery in the coking coal market, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream steel companies, although further price increases may be limited [10]. - The overall sentiment in the coal market remains strong, with expectations of continued price strength in the short term, despite potential constraints from rising prices affecting purchasing enthusiasm [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment View - As of September 19, 2025, the price indices for various coal types have shown significant weekly increases, with the Yulin 5800 index at 598.0 CNY/ton (+44.0 CNY), the Ordos 5500 index at 521.0 CNY/ton (+19.0 CNY), and the Datong 5500 index at 576.0 CNY/ton (+21.0 CNY) [10]. - The coking coal market has stabilized, with prices for major coking coal indices also showing increases, such as the Shanxi main coking coal at 1610 CNY/ton (+60 CNY) [10]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The coal mining index increased by 3.77% while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.44%, indicating a relative outperformance of coal stocks [11]. - Major coal companies have shown varied performance, with significant gains for companies like Yongtai Energy (+13.42%) and Luan Environmental Energy (+13.04%) [11]. 3. Key Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key coal companies, including China Shenhua (total market value: 755.35 billion CNY, PE: 12.9), Shaanxi Coal (total market value: 200.88 billion CNY, PE: 9.0), and others, indicating a range of valuations and expected profitability [42].

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized by their market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The "Total Heat Index" is used as a proxy variable for "emotional heat" to track the sentiment of broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[7] - The report constructs a simple rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of different broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the highest change rate is in the "others" group[12][15] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 32.7% in 2025[15] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on the heat change rate of concepts: a "TOP" portfolio consisting of the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat in the hottest concepts, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio consisting of the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat in the hottest concepts[29] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 40.9% in 2025[31] - The "Total Heat Index" for broad-based indices includes the heat of the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 indices, as well as an "others" group for stocks not included in these indices[8][9] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for the main broad-based indices shows that the CSI 500 had the highest increase of 3.33%, while the CSI 300 had the largest decrease of 4.11%[15] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for the Shenwan primary industries shows that the real estate industry had the highest increase of 48.8%, while the defense industry had the largest decrease of -31.0%[26] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for the Shenwan secondary industries shows that the top 5 industries with the highest positive change rates are house construction II, film and cinema, paper, coal mining, and home appliance parts II[26] - The weekly heat change rate for concepts shows that the top 5 concepts with the highest positive change rates are house inspection, underground pipelines, car dismantling, prefabricated buildings, and Shanghai state-owned enterprise reform[27][29] - The current valuation historical percentiles (rolling 5 years) for the main broad-based indices are 81% for the CSI 300, 99% for the CSI 500, and 94% for the CSI 1000[36] - The Shenwan primary industries with current valuations above the 80th historical percentile include power equipment, electronics, computers, light manufacturing, defense, pharmaceuticals, retail, building materials, banking, coal, and basic chemicals[37] - The Shenwan secondary industries with current valuations above the 80th historical percentile include chemical pharmaceuticals, aerospace equipment, wind power equipment, steel raw materials, biological products, semiconductors, large state-owned banks, environmental protection equipment, general retail, airports, components, clothing and textiles, automotive services, tourism and scenic spots, commercial vehicles, rubber, building materials, real estate services, professional chains, diversified finance, animal health, electronic chemicals, optical and optoelectronics, chemical fibers, digital media, other electronics, glass and fiberglass, automation equipment, and games[40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The port coal price has increased due to pre-holiday stockpiling, with the current price at 704 RMB/ton, up by 24 RMB/ton week-on-week [1] - Supply from the four ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with an average daily inflow of 1.4861 million tons, down by 127,400 tons or 7.90% from the previous week [1] - Demand has also weakened, with a daily outflow of 1.5383 million tons, down by 45,100 tons or 2.85% week-on-week [1] - The total inventory in the Bohai Rim ports has decreased to 20.61 million tons, down by 207,700 tons or 9.16% from the previous week [1] - The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to seasonal demand fluctuations and decreasing temperatures [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,820.09 points, down 1.05% week-on-week, while the coal sector index rose by 2.16% to 2,735.68 points [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector reached 73.185 billion RMB, an increase of 91.54% from the previous week [10] Production and Pricing - Domestic coal prices have shown stability with slight increases; for instance, the price of 5500 kcal coal in Datong rose by 37 RMB/ton to 597 RMB/ton [18] - The international coal price index has shown a slight decline, with the Newcastle coal price down by 6.67 USD/ton to 101.11 USD/ton [20] Inventory and Shipping - The average daily shipping volume in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with a total inventory reduction indicating a tightening supply situation [28][31] - Domestic shipping costs have increased by 19.91%, now averaging 35.53 RMB/ton [33] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as potential investment opportunities due to their low valuations and market elasticity [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed this week, with the yield curve steepening rapidly. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The long - end is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline and hard to rise. Gold is still favored [2][40]. - In the equity market, AI computing power showed a tendency to spread to other technology sectors. The market is still considered a "slow bull" and short - term is more structural. In the convertible bond market, high valuations are a psychological obstacle. It is recommended to invest in the mid - low - price range for technology diffusion, more left - side cycle directions, or alpha - focused gaming points [2][41]. - The top ten high - rating, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Energy - saving Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond, Energy - chemical Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, and Jiangong Convertible Bond [2][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market: Overall Decline with Most Industries Falling - This week (September 15 - 19), the equity market was significantly differentiated and overall declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, and the CSI 300 fell 0.44%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 196.154 billion yuan to 2.494834 trillion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 8.53% [7][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 12 industries rose, with 5 industries rising more than 2%. Coal, power equipment, electronics, automobiles, and machinery had the highest increases [14]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market: Overall Decline with Most Industries Falling - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.55%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 3 industries rose, with 1 industry rising more than 2%. Communication, national defense and military industry, and automobiles had the highest increases [15]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 9.0635 billion yuan, a significant increase of 364.4 million yuan, a week - on - week change of 4.19%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Jingxing Convertible Bond, Jing 23 Convertible Bond, etc. [15]. - About 18.29% of individual convertible bonds rose, with 6.48% rising between 0 - 1% and 9.26% rising more than 2% [15]. - The overall market conversion premium rate increased. The average daily conversion premium rate this week was 37.17%, up 1.07 pcts from last week. There were different changes in different price and parity intervals [23]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - This week, the weighted average and median weekly returns of convertible bonds and underlying stocks were negative, and the convertible bonds had a larger weekly decline. The trading volume of both markets increased significantly, with the convertible bond trading volume having a larger increase but a lower percentile level [37]. - About 18.88% of convertible bonds rose, and about 31.65% of underlying stocks rose. About 43.85% of convertible bonds had a higher return than the underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [37]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The long - end is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline and hard to rise. Gold is still favored [2][40]. - In the equity market, AI computing power showed a tendency to spread to other technology sectors. The market is still considered a "slow bull" and short - term is more structural. In the convertible bond market, high valuations are a psychological obstacle. It is recommended to invest in the mid - low - price range for technology diffusion, more left - side cycle directions, or alpha - focused gaming points [2][41]. - The top ten high - rating, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Energy - saving Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond, Energy - chemical Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, and Jiangong Convertible Bond [2][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [3][13] - The report highlights that coal prices have shown signs of stabilization, and there is an expectation for price increases due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [5][13] - The report emphasizes the continued investment logic of coal capacity shortages, with a short-term balance and a long-term gap in supply [13][14] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of September 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 CNY/ton, an increase of 21 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1610 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][33] - International thermal coal prices have also seen fluctuations, with Newcastle thermal coal at 69.6 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.4 USD/ton [4][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.7%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [4][48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 4.10 thousand tons/day (+1.22%) [5][13] - The report notes that the supply side is still constrained by policies, and the demand is expected to rise as winter heating needs begin [5][13] Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.59%, outperforming the broader market [16] - The report identifies key companies to focus on, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, highlighting their stable operations and strong performance [14][16]