Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and economic data releases. Group 1: Market Data - As of December 15, the dollar index is trading around 98.446, while spot silver opened at $61.79 per ounce and is currently around $61.96 per ounce. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 14,500 yuan per kilogram, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 14,498 yuan per kilogram [1] - On December 12, silver ETF holdings increased by 19.74 tons to 16,102.9 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on monetary policy, with Goolsbee suggesting to wait for more data before considering rate cuts, while Schmid emphasized that inflation remains too high, advocating for a restrictive monetary policy [3] - Paulson highlighted a focus on employment risks, indicating that monetary policy remains restrictive, and Hamak noted a preference for a slightly more restrictive policy stance [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Former President Trump indicated a preference for either former Fed Governor Warsh or NEC Director Hassett to succeed the current Fed Chair [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the U.S. and Europe do not support Ukraine's NATO membership, suggesting a compromise for security guarantees, with discussions on a "peace plan" continuing [4] Group 4: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $57.86 last week, hitting a low of $57.276 before a strong rally influenced by fundamentals, reaching a high of $64.696, and closing at $61.947, forming a long upper shadow on a bullish candlestick [5] - Current trading strategies include holding positions at 37.8 and 38.8, with stop-loss adjustments at 63 and targets set at 62, 61.5, and 61, while preparing to exit if prices break below 60.5-60.1 [5]

Core Insights - The recent FOMC statement indicates a resumption of money-printing, which is expected to undermine the dollar by 2026, leading to increased inflation estimates and rising gold and silver prices [3][10] - Silver has shown remarkable price momentum, with significant liquidity shortages in the market, raising concerns about the ability to meet delivery obligations [3][6][9] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen significantly, with a reported price of $4318, up $220, indicating a positive trend in the market [6] - Open interest in gold on Comex increased by 25,644 contracts, suggesting that investors are beginning to take leveraged positions anticipating higher prices [11] - There is potential for open interest to increase by another 100,000 contracts before reaching overbought conditions, which could drive gold prices even higher [15] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged to $64.10, up $5.90, driven by strong momentum despite a lack of speculative demand from futures investors [6][7] - The decline in open interest since silver's peak on October 20 indicates that speculative investors have exited the market, leaving it vulnerable to liquidity issues [7] - The current market conditions suggest that silver prices will continue to rise until a significant market disruption occurs or authorities intervene, with potential implications for the broader financial system [9] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The tightening of export licenses in China and increased industrial demand in India are contributing to upward pressure on silver prices, highlighting the interconnectedness of global markets [8] - The potential for a financial crisis looms if the silver derivative markets break down, which could have cascading effects on other commodities and metals [9][16] - The resumption of quantitative easing (QE) is expected to have inflationary implications, further influencing the demand for precious metals [10]

12月12日，贵金属市场依旧展现出显著韧性，白银再创历史新高，黄金亦逼近纪录区间。在这一背景 下，ZFX山海证券认为，目前的走势同时受到技术形态确认与美元持续走弱的双重推动，为关注避险资 产的投资者提供了鲜明的市场指引。 形态在上周二获得确认后，白银经历了四日横盘整固，用以吸收前期涨幅并为下一段升势蓄力。本周 二，白银开启了新一轮连续三天的强劲上攻，价格被推升至前所未见的高度。ZFX山海证券表示，在最 新交易日中，白银期货上涨1.79美元、涨幅2.89%，收报63.99美元，盘中更触及64.72美元的历史高位， 再度印证"三白兵"形态的有效性与市场持续旺盛的买盘力量。 与白银齐头并进，黄金亦维持稳健涨势。最新活跃合约上涨51.20美元、涨幅1.20%，至4309.50美元， 创出自10月25日以来的最高水平，并逼近10月20日创下的4436美元纪录价位。ZFX山海证券认为，两大 贵金属的同步走强反映了更广泛的宏观力量正在发挥作用。 贵金属强势的核心基本面来自于美元的连续疲软。数据显示，美元指数已连续三周下跌，期间累计跌幅 1.95%，若本周剩余交易日继续承压，跌幅甚至可能突破2%。ZFX山海证券表示，在美元持 ...

美联储宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，目标区间由3.75%-4.00%降至3.50%-3.75%。这是2025年以来 的第三次降息，累计降幅达到75个基点，延续了年内的宽松节奏。 与此同时，美联储还同步下调了多项关键利率工具：超额准备金利率（IORB）、逆回购利率（ON RRP）以及贴现率均随基准利率下调25个基点，同时取消了常设回购操作的上限，以增强短期流动性调 节能力。 值得注意的是，会议还宣布一项重要流动性管理措施：自12月12日起重启储备管理购债，计划在30天内 购买约400亿美元短期国债，未来几个月将维持较高的初始购买规模，后续则会"大幅降低"购买力度。 12月11日，COMEX白银库存录得14177.51吨，较上一日减少18.6吨；comex白银周四（12月11日）收报 63.97美元/盎司，上涨2.93%，comex白银价格日内最高上探至64.72美元/盎司，最低触及61.78美元/盎 司。 最新comex白银库存数据： | 日期 | comex白银库存量(吨) | 增持/减持（吨） | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-10 | 14177.51 | -18.6 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to record a weekly increase following the Federal Reserve's anticipated 25 basis point rate cut this week, with investors hoping for further policy easing next year [1] Group 1: Gold Market - New York futures prices rose 0.2% to $4,322.20 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of 1.9% for the week [1] - Gold's price movement is closely tied to broader policy outlooks and real yields, with expectations that it will continue to serve as a reliable macro sentiment indicator [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver futures reached a record high of $64 per ounce, driven by speculative interest amid supply shortage narratives [1] - Analysts suggest that while silver attracts speculation, gold's performance remains more influenced by macroeconomic factors [1]

摘要今日周五（12月12日）亚欧时段，美联储宣布降息25个基点后，金价于周四小幅攀升。此次降息举 措为市场注入了一定的流动性，对黄金价格形成了支撑。与此同时，白银价格也展现出强劲走势。在利 率下降和供应紧张的双重利好因素推动下，纽约商品交易所的白银价格再创新高。投资者对贵金属的需 求增加，进一步推升了白银价格。交易员们正密切关注俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的和平谈判进展。地缘政治 局势的缓和预期对贵金属产生了一定支撑。 北约秘书长马克·吕特在柏林发表讲话时警告称，俄乌冲突持续近四年后，北约已成为俄罗斯的下一个 目标，且已经处于危险之中。他呼吁各国为可能发生的大规模战争做好准备。 值得注意的是，在6月之前的每次会议上，美联储都一致同意保持利率不变。然而，在最近的会议上， 却出现了三种不同的意见分歧。其中，米兰呼吁降息50个基点，另外两名官员则敦促维持利率不变，而 最终九名官员决定降息25个基点。 鲍威尔表示，他希望在明年5月美国经济状况良好的情况下离开美联储。他还指出，关税是导致通胀超 调的主要原因之一。此前，特朗普曾多次批评他没有大幅削减借贷成本。 技术分析 现货黄金：金价因交易员关注美元回调而走高。疲弱的初请失业金人 ...

基本面： 周五（12月12日）亚市早盘，现货白银交投于61.85美元/盎司附近。基本面现货白银更是一度上涨1.44%至62.87美元/盎司，本周连续三个交易日刷新历史记 录高点。美联储的最新政策声明显示，此次降息后，他们可能暂时按兵不动，等待就业市场和通胀数据提供更清晰的指引。白银强势领跑贵金属板块值得注 意的是，此轮行情中白银的表现尤为抢眼，现货白银急升近3%，收报每盎司63.54美元，接近盘中创下的64.29美元历史新高。白银似乎正在拉动黄金上涨， 同时带动铂金和钯金等其他贵金属跟进。这种联动效应源于白银的双重属性：一方面作为工业金属，受全球制造业复苏预期支撑；另一方面作为贵金属，受 益于避险情绪升温。 白银的势头强劲，不仅反映了市场对通胀和经济不确定性的担忧，还凸显了贵金属板块整体的复苏迹象。与黄金相比，白银的波动性更大，但其历史新高也 为黄金提供了上行动力，形成一种互补上涨的格局。投资者需注意，白银的工业需求占比更高，若全球经济放缓，其涨幅可能面临回调风险，但当前环境 下，白银的领跑角色无疑强化了黄金市场的多头氛围。地缘政治风险与就业数据悬念全球地缘政治动荡为黄金提供了额外支撑。美国总统特朗普表示将协 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 the first 流的衍生品综合服务商 DATE 入 期 市 市 服 热线 官 方 网 站 需 有 客 译 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 0）中长朗观点。中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和大国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用网险，全球央行机构勾居 民的配置需求延续等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移,建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 本我告中的偏息均源于公元可获得的资料，国资货分文推商工靠。但不对上这信息的准确性及完整性的任何保证。本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别发资者持放的投资目标、仅资机动需要，投资 者:自行列颐本报告中的任河意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据此:投资，责任自负。本报告似向推定客户推选。未经国贸联货投资许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为您的成团贸雅货的专贸 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 IIC EN B 4月1日 1 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The expected Fed balance - sheet expansion and global debt inflation support precious metal prices. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in December and in 2026 - 2027, and start monthly reserve management purchases of short - term Treasuries, which is a technical balance - sheet expansion exceeding expectations. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries lead to expectations of debt inflation and fiscal deficit expansion. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold - buying also support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] - The supply - demand situation of platinum and palladium is different. Platinum supply is expected to be tight in 2025 - 2026, with supply gaps of 26 and 18 tons respectively, and an average annual supply - demand gap of about 19 tons until 2029. Palladium supply is expected to change from tight to loose, with supply gaps of 8 and 3 tons in 2025 - 2026 and a looser supply - demand situation in 2027 [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 12, 2025, the closing price was 957.90 yuan/gram, down 3.14 from the previous week and up 1.50 from the previous day. Trading volume was 242,710, and open interest was 192,178. Inventory was 91,302 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The closing price was 952.35 yuan/gram, down 3.65 from the previous week. Trading volume was 33,596, and open interest was 200,796 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 14,447 yuan/kg, up 70 from the previous day and 808 from the previous week. Trading volume was 894,426, and open interest was 3,823,854 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: Relevant trading and position data are also provided, along with information on spreads and basis [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,309.30 dollars/ounce, up 74.50 from the previous day. Trading volume was 220,543, and open interest was 321,283. Inventory was 36,115,605.50 (in troy ounces) [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 1.78 dollars/ounce, up 5.05 from the previous week. Trading volume was 118,368, and open interest was 118,097. Inventory was 455,817,117.44 (in troy ounces) [1] Important Information - US initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 last week, the largest increase since 2020, and continuing claims dropped to an 8 - month low. The US trade deficit in September fell to a five - year low [1] - Global long - term bond yields soared to a 16 - year high, and the market bets that the global interest - rate cut cycle is about to end [1] Trading Strategies Gold and Silver - Adopt a long - position strategy when prices fall. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4400 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, focus on support levels around 890 - 920 and resistance levels around 1000 - 1050. For London silver, focus on support levels around 49 - 54 and resistance levels around 63 - 72; for Shanghai silver, focus on support levels around 11500 - 12500 and resistance levels around 15000 - 16000 [1] Platinum - Unilaterally establish long positions when prices fall, and cautiously hold long positions in the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy. For London platinum, focus on support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, focus on support levels around 335 - 385 and resistance levels around 465 - 516 [1] Palladium - Unilaterally establish long positions when prices fall. For London palladium, focus on support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, focus on support levels around 305 - 357 and resistance levels around 415 - 465 [1]

2. 佣金：明面上的额外抽成 有些平台每手还要收10-30美元，来回一趟就是几十美元，相当于又交了一道税。 3. 隔夜利息：长期持仓的慢性消耗 空头每天可能被收取十几美元甚至20多美元利息，一周就能抹平好几个点的利润。 4. 出入金与兑换成本 出金手续费、跨境汇率差、实物交割时的铸锭运输费……这些零碎费用加起来往往上千元，却最容易被忽略。 第二步：为什么同样是贵金属，成本差距能差10倍？ 目前投资者主要通过银行和专业交易商两种渠道，实际体验和成本完全不是一个量级。 在过去三年全球动荡周期里，黄金平均每年上涨超过18%，但绝大部分投资者的实际到手收益却不到10%。差的那部分钱，并不是市场没给，而是被各种隐 形成本悄悄吃掉了。 今天用最直白的方式，把贵金属投资里所有"看不见的支出"一次性讲透，顺便告诉你怎样才能把这些钱省回来，真正留到自己口袋里。 第一步：先搞清楚你的钱到底被谁拿走了 1. 点差：相当于你每次买卖都要先交的"过路费" 正常情况下，伦敦金的合理点差只有0.3-0.5美元，很多平台却报到1.5-3美元。意味着你一开仓就先亏了2-5 美元/盎司，一年下来高频交易者光这一项就能亏掉本金的15%-25%。 ...