Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the steel sector. The market anticipates that after the May Day holiday, iron water production will peak, potentially squeezing iron ore profits, leading to downward price feedback [8][13]. - The steel sector has experienced three years of adjustment, positioning it as a high-value investment opportunity. The profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved, and the supply structure of iron ore may undergo substantial changes, allowing profits to flow back to the domestic steel industry [8][13]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar has decreased, with a reported national consumption of 2.6 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 5.07%. The average price of rebar has slightly increased to 3,323 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled prices have decreased to 3,812 CNY/ton, down 1.54% week-on-week [14][37]. - The total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 1,083 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week and 24.11% year-on-year [23]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar has increased, with long process rebar profit rising by 25 CNY/ton and short process rebar profit increasing by 350 CNY/ton [34]. Industrial Metals - The copper treatment charge (TC) and refining charge (RC) have deepened into negative territory, indicating challenges in the copper market. The LME aluminum price has risen to 2,412 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.63% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, with costs in Xinjiang dropping by 16.22% and profits increasing by 3,455 CNY/ton [16]. Precious Metals - Tariffs may drive up demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices expected to continue rising. The COMEX gold price is reported at 3,330.2 USD/ounce, with a slight week-on-week decline of 0.33% [16][49]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in China has significantly increased, with a reported production of 56,110 tons in February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.44% [15][40]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is currently 69,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week decrease of 1.21% [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, tin prices showed a volatile trend, with weekly prices stabilizing around 260,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals of tin are relatively stable, and after the re - evaluation of supply - demand balance, tin may shift from an annual shortage to a tight supply - demand balance. The current equilibrium price of tin may be between 260,000 and 270,000 yuan, and a range - bound trading strategy is recommended [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was 171 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium fell to 1,000 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums were basically flat compared to last week, with a slight increase in Southeast Asian premiums [9][10][15] - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from a large backwardation to contango [17][18] - **Inventory**: This week, the global total tin inventory decreased by 1,579 tons, the domestic social inventory decreased by 72 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 297 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 35 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio rose to 13.7% [22][23][26] - **Funds**: As of this Friday, the settled funds for SHFE tin were 1.64047 billion yuan, and the funds flowed out in the past 10 days [31][32] - **Transaction and Position**: This week, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE tin dropped significantly. The trading volume of LME tin continued to decline significantly from the previous high [34][40] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE tin declined slightly [46] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In March 2025, 8,323 tons of tin ore were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 4.83% and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 55.44%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained stable at 12,500 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 8,500 yuan/ton. The import profit - loss level of tin ore increased slightly [50][51] - **Smelting**: In March 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,080 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of enterprises in Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 56.34%, a slight decline from last week [53][55] - **Import**: In March 2025, 2,101 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,673 tons were exported, and the net import was 428 tons. Among them, 1,093 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profit - loss was - 8,039 yuan/ton [60][62] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - **Consumption Volume**: In February 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 13,546 tons, and the actual consumption was 12,662 tons, a slight decline from the previous month [66] - **Tin Materials**: This week, the downstream processing fees remained stable, and the operating rate of solder enterprises in February increased slightly [68] - **End - User Consumption**: In December 2024, the output of end - user products generally increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also showed an upward trend month - on - month and year - on - year. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined, in line with the performance of tin prices [75][77][82]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 80.942 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.010 billion yuan, an increase of 5.48% compared to the previous year [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 1.516 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 160.47% [1] Group 2 - The company has implemented a cash dividend plan, distributing 0.808 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for 30.04% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [1] - The company has consistently paid cash dividends for three consecutive years, totaling 0.831 billion yuan since its market debut in 2022 [1] Group 3 - The company released its second ESG report, highlighting its commitment to sustainable development with a focus on high-end, global, and green strategies [2] - In 2024, the company recycled 1.2109 million tons of recycled aluminum and achieved ISO14067 certification for 20 aluminum alloy products across 11 factories [2] - The company has optimized its energy structure to reduce carbon emissions and increased the share of clean energy through photovoltaic projects [2] - The company emphasizes social responsibility by safeguarding employee rights, enhancing safety production, and participating in public welfare and rural revitalization [2] - The governance aspect includes improving the ESG management system and strengthening supply chain compliance and business ethics, earning multiple industry honors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing volatility due to escalating global trade disputes, with recent price fluctuations reflecting a return to previous levels after a significant drop [2][11] Group 1: Trade and Economic Impact - The U.S. has been facing significant economic challenges, including a large debt scale and trade deficits, leading to increased tariffs as a means to address domestic issues [2] - Recent tariff measures have heightened concerns about potential disruptions in global trade chains, which could negatively impact economic growth and increase inflation [3] - The U.S. administration's shift towards a more conciliatory trade stance has improved market sentiment, resulting in a rebound in risk assets that were previously affected [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite a slight increase in global copper production, the expansion of smelting capacity has outpaced it, leading to a tightening supply situation [4] - Recent incidents in Peru, particularly at the Antamina mine, could further strain copper supply if production is disrupted for an extended period [4] - Domestic copper smelting facilities are facing challenges due to low processing fees, which have dropped significantly, impacting their production viability [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Domestic refined copper inventories have been rapidly decreasing, influenced by high prices and a subsequent drop in purchasing enthusiasm from downstream sectors [8] - The traditional peak season for copper demand is nearing its end, and concerns about future demand are growing due to the potential impact of tariffs on exports, particularly in the machinery and electronics sectors [10] - Overall, while there is strong support for copper prices in the short term, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to macroeconomic pressures and potential demand weakening [11]

前十大流通股东累计持有： 37427.68万股，累计占流通股比： 26.56%，较上期变化： -544.80万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本比例(%) | 增减情况(万股) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中冶葫芦岛有色金属集团有限公司 | 33260.20 | 23.59 | 不变 | | 李照先 | 1069.00 | 0.76 | 29.20 | | 刘彦 | 727.09 | 0.52 | 28.80 | | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 577.33 | 0.41 | -94.36 | | 徐忠阳 | 460.06 | 0.33 | 不变 | | 童胜朋 | 299.99 | 0.21 | 新进 | | 易小余 | 297.98 | 0.21 | 新进 | | 郑清涛 | 278.45 | 0.20 | 新进 | | 刘颖莉 | 237.26 | 0.17 | 新进 | | 管兰颖 | 220.32 | 0.16 | 新进 | | 较上个报告期退出前十大股东有 | | | | | 狄文 | 500.01 | 0.35 | 退出 | | 李炎 | 440.0 ...

中色股份（000758）公告，2024年营业收入89.18亿元，同比下降4.74%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润 4.02亿元，同比增长12.03%。基本每股收益0.2043元/股，同比增长12.01%。公司经本次董事会审议通过 的利润分配预案为：以19.93亿股为基数，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.46元(含税)，送红股0股(含 税)，不以公积金转增股本。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price opened higher in the morning, with the main contract price briefly reaching the 78,000 yuan mark before falling back. It oscillated below 78,000 yuan throughout the day, and the open interest increased slightly. The price increase was due to Trump's recognition of high tariffs on Chinese goods and the expected significant reduction. The short - term price has recovered to the level of February, the refined - scrap spread has widened, and the industrial support is strong but the driving force will decline. The rebound of the US dollar index will suppress the price increase. It is expected that the short - term copper price will oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 78,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price slightly rose and then fell in the morning, oscillating above 19,800 yuan throughout the day, and the open interest decreased continuously. The price increase was also due to the expected tariff reduction. The short - term macro environment is improving, high profits of smelters suppress the price, while active downstream production provides support. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 20,000 yuan [5]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated in the range of 125,000 - 126,000 yuan and closed above 126,000 yuan, with the open interest decreasing slightly. The short - term price has repeatedly failed to break through the 126,000 yuan mark, facing significant technical resistance. The short - term industrial outlook is weak, and the downstream stainless - steel market is sluggish. It is expected that the short - term nickel price will be weak [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On April 23, a fatal accident occurred at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, leading to a full - scale shutdown for safety and an investigation. Citi raised the copper futures price forecast to $8,800 per ton due to Trump's relaxed stance on tariffs [8]. - **Aluminum**: According to IAI data, the global primary aluminum production in March 2025 was 6.227 million tons, compared with 6.089 million tons in the same period last year and a revised 5.66 million tons in the previous month. The estimated primary aluminum production in China in March was 3.729 million tons, compared with a revised 3.399 million tons in the previous month [8]. - **Nickel**: On April 23, for the Shanghai market's main reference contract of refined nickel, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,250 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,800 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,850 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,300 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,650 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [32][35][36].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 1.08%至 9354 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.86%至 77610 元/吨；现货 | | | 进口窗口关闭，但亏损减弱。宏观方面，昨晚美国白宫态度出现重大转变，此前一直批 | | | 评美联储主席鲍威尔降息不够迅速、甚至威胁将其解雇的美国总统特朗普表示，无意解 | | | 雇鲍威尔。另外，美国财长贝森特表示，关税僵局不可持续，预计将在不久的将来，形 势有所缓和。白宫新闻秘书宣称，贸易谈判正取得进展，本周将与 34 个国家开会，并 | | | 表示特朗普希望降息，希望美元继续扮演全球储备货币的角色。库存方面，LME 铜库 | | 铜 | 存下降 700 吨至 212700 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 2235.33 吨至 116355.8 吨；SHFE 铜仓单 | | | 下降 6098 吨至 46693 吨；BC 铜仓单下降 603 吨至 11327 吨。需求方面，下游开工和订 | | | 单保持平稳，节前备货或进一步加快库存去化。3 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Macroeconomic factor: Tariffs are the core variable for asset pricing. Trump may lower China's reciprocal tariffs. The pricing of copper in Q1 was mainly based on the expected spread of US copper import tariffs. The current spread between US and LME copper is around 10%, and the inventory trend is no longer differentiated, but the tariff factor still supports copper prices. - Fundamental factor: Demand is strong, with higher copper rod operating rates and basis, and better domestic inventory destocking. The copper ore supply remains tight. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract ranging from 76,000 to 79,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Supply side: Alumina operating capacity remains high, but recent supply - side production cuts due to losses have increased, and there are potential supply risks in Guinea's mines, which support short - term prices. - Demand side: Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is operating at a high level, with overall stable demand and limited incremental demand. The export window for domestic alumina is closed, and export demand has decreased. Currently, prices are close to costs, and marginal changes in the supply side may lead to price rebounds. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 19,000 to 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Supply side: The trend of loose zinc ore supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the increase in TC and the expansion speed of refined zinc production. If the TC growth rate exceeds the theoretical expectation, it indicates that the loose ore supply has been smoothly transmitted to the refined zinc end, and the overall industrial chain supply will be more abundant. - Demand side: After the peak season, orders and operating rates have weakened. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis, and spot transactions are average. Trump may lower China's reciprocal tariffs, and the tariff pressure has been relatively relieved. In the future, zinc prices may move down if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariff policies; otherwise, they may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract ranging from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply side: Recently, the ore end has shown some signs of loosening. Although some upstream producers have carried out maintenance and production cuts in April, overall production has increased significantly since March, and the arrival of overseas ore has also increased, resulting in clear supply pressure. The incremental supply of lithium carbonate in April is expected to slow down marginally. - Demand side: Overall demand is relatively stable, but the performance during the peak season is lower than expected. Power orders are acceptable, but the number of energy - storage export orders is at risk of decline due to tariff policies. In May and June, which are usually off - peak seasons, the pressure may be greater. Currently, the market is in a situation of clear supply - demand contradiction, with weakening support at the raw material ore end and intensified long - short capital games at low valuations. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 66,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Market sentiment: The stainless - steel market maintained a narrow - range shock, and the market was mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Spot prices were generally stable. - Supply side: Some domestic steel mills have carried out maintenance and production cuts, but the stainless - steel production plan for April remains at a high level. - Demand side: Demand has certain resilience but is still slowly recovering. Household appliance consumption has a certain driving effect, and previous export orders have recovered well, but export orders to the US have stagnated due to tariffs. Downstream procurement is mainly for just - in - time needs, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Social inventory has decreased slightly, and inventory pressure has eased slightly. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - Market sentiment: The Shanghai nickel market maintained a narrow - range shock, and market sentiment was temporarily stable. - Supply side: Indonesia's new nickel product royalty policy is about to be implemented, which may increase the comprehensive cost of nickel mines. The pre - sale of Philippine nickel ore resources in May has been concentrated. - Demand side: Refined nickel spot transactions are generally average, and the spot premiums of most brands are stable. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - Supply side: The processing fees of smelters are running at a low level. The import of tin ore from January to March decreased year - on - year. The earthquake in Myanmar affected the resumption of production, and the Bisie mine in Congo has resumed production, relieving the supply pressure to some extent. - Demand side: Driven by domestic policies, the operating rate of soldering tin has improved, but mainly in leading enterprises, and the order improvement of small and medium - sized enterprises is limited. In the future, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 645 yuan/ton to 77,195 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.84%. The basis of various copper types also changed to varying degrees. - Fundamental data: In March, electrolytic copper production was 1.1221 million tons, up 6.04% month - on - month; imports were 308,800 tons, up 15.24% month - on - month. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 3.31 percentage points to 78.07%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 540,000 tons to 1.965 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.56% [1]. Aluminum - Price and spread: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 19,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum decreased by 510,000 tons to 6.73 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.04%. - Fundamental data: In March, alumina production was 7.549 million tons, up 8.85% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.3396 million tons, up 11.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum processing industries showed different changes [3]. Zinc - Price and spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 22,580 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18%. - Fundamental data: In March, refined zinc production was 546,900 tons, up 13.70% month - on - month; imports were 33,700 tons, down 15.27% month - on - month; exports were 400 tons, down 91.04% month - on - month. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions decreased by 126,000 tons to 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.93% [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 70,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.64%. - Fundamental data: In March, lithium carbonate production was 79,065 tons, up 23.44% month - on - month; demand was 87,002 tons, up 15.07% month - on - month. In April, the production capacity was 133,522 tons, up 1.52% month - on - month; the operating rate was 45%, up 20 percentage points month - on - month [7]. Stainless Steel - Price and basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,150 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials such as nickel ore and chromium ore was mostly stable, while the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/nickel point. - Fundamental data: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in 43 Chinese enterprises was 3.4401 million tons, up 11.37% month - on - month; the production in Indonesia's Qinglong was 420,000 tons, down 6.67% month - on - month. Stainless - steel exports increased by 70.98% month - on - month to 470,600 tons [10]. Nickel - Price and basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 126,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.16%. - Fundamental data: In March, China's refined nickel product production decreased by 5.69% month - on - month to 28,320 tons; imports increased by 99.27% month - on - month to 18,897 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 8.00% week - on - week to 30,594 tons [12]. Tin - Price and basis: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 258,800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.35%. - Fundamental data: In March, tin ore imports were 8,323 tons, down 4.83% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,080 tons, up 7.33% month - on - month; imports were 2,101 tons, up 12.41% month - on - month; exports were 1,673 tons, down 29.50% month - on - month [13].

铝合金材料纵深研发，新兴产业布局提速。1）免热处理合金，①新能源汽车一体压铸领域，2024/6/19 以及2024/11/20 分别获得某战略客户/某国有大型车企定点；②在机器人及无人机，正在欧洲某机器人 关节转轴及国内某知名无人机的结构件上验证；2）可钎焊压铸铝合金，对接汽车热管理系统流道板上 的验证和应用，并积极拓展储能、算力中心等领域；3）铝基稀土中间合金和航空航天级特种中间合 金，已间接用于航空航天、低空经济；4）硅铝弥散复合新材料，用于芯片封装壳体及半导体设备零部 件制造等领域。 盈利预测与估值 考虑美国加关税对需求端短期负面影响，我们下调25 年盈利预测9.0%至8.6亿元，基本维持26 年盈利预 测11.1 亿元，当前股价对应25/26 年 12.0/9.3xP/E 维持跑赢行业评级，考虑汽车板块估值中枢提升，维 持目标价21元 ，对应 25/26 年 15.5/12.0xP/E，较当前股价有 28.8%的上行空间。 风险 2024 年业绩符合我们预期 2024 年实现营业收入272.5 亿元，同比+16.6%；归母净利润7.1 亿元，同比+16.8%；扣非净利润6.1 亿 元，同比增长17.1 ...