Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continued to rise in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 6.54%, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 12.04%. Analysts are looking for investment opportunities in October, with over ten brokerage firms releasing their monthly investment portfolios across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Recommended Stocks - Multiple brokerage firms have recommended stocks in sectors such as materials and technology, including notable names like Hikvision, Zhaoyi Innovation, Huayou Cobalt, and Luoyang Molybdenum, which received recommendations from three different brokerages [2][3]. - Hikvision has a latest closing price of 31.52 yuan and a market capitalization of 288.88 billion yuan, with a 1.12% increase in September [5]. - Zhaoyi Innovation has a closing price of 213.30 yuan and a market capitalization of 142.33 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 34.17% in September [5]. - Huayou Cobalt has a closing price of 65.90 yuan and a market capitalization of 125.16 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 37.15% in September [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum has a closing price of 15.70 yuan and a market capitalization of 330.84 billion yuan, with a 27.02% increase in September [5]. Group 2: Investment Themes and Sectors - Brokerages suggest that October may see a "red October" market, with a focus on technology and "anti-involution" themes. The third-quarter report window is highlighted as a key focus for October [6]. - The market is expected to continue the upward trend seen in September, with an emphasis on sectors such as AI computing power, semiconductor self-sufficiency, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion [6]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to influence policies related to "anti-involution," making this direction worthy of attention in October [6]. - Key investment themes for October include global AI capital expenditure, thematic investments related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," and sectors likely to exceed performance expectations, such as brokerage firms and semiconductors [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Silver Industry Group Co., Ltd. received an administrative penalty notice from the Gansu Securities Regulatory Bureau regarding undisclosed financial product investments and subsequent penalties [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Actions - The company purchased financial products worth 3 billion yuan from August 2017 to March 2018 [1] - These financial products were not recovered on time in 2019 and were only fully recovered by December 2024 [1] Disclosure Issues - The company failed to adequately disclose the details of these financial products in its annual reports from 2019 to 2024, leading to significant omissions [1] Regulatory Response - The Gansu Securities Regulatory Bureau plans to impose a fine of 4 million yuan on Silver Industry [1] - Different amounts of fines will be levied on the responsible individuals involved [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the National Day holiday approaching, it is advisable for long - position holders to reduce positions to control risks. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support metal prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support basic metal prices. The report maintains the view of buying copper, aluminum, and tin on dips but suggests reducing long positions or taking profits due to the approaching holiday [1]. - Copper: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Aluminum oxide: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. Aluminum: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. Aluminum alloy: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. Zinc: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. Lead: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. Nickel: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. Stainless steel: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. Tin: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. - **Analysis**: Grasberg mine in Indonesia may see a 35% drop in 2026 production. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September 2025. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 tons month - on - month and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. As of September 29, copper inventories increased by 0.82 tons to 14.83 tons. After the release of "770 - document", there was a large - scale shutdown and production reduction in the recycled copper market [7][8]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut supports copper prices. The supply of copper mines is disrupted, and the cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, leading to expected production cuts in electrolytic copper. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. If inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [9]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to oscillate strongly [9]. Aluminum Oxide - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the prices of aluminum oxide in various regions declined. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of aluminum oxide, with the winning bid price down 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Aluminum oxide warehouse receipts increased by 10,548 tons to 159,759 tons [10][11]. - **Logic**: Macro - sentiment affects the market. The operating capacity remains high, and the strong inventory - accumulation trend continues. The fundamentals are weak, but the decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter is limited, which may restrict the downside. Potential production - cut expectations and Guinea - related disruptions will affect prices [11]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum oxide is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream consumption - area electrolytic aluminum inventories decreased by 2.5 tons compared to last Thursday and 4.6 tons compared to last Monday. Aluminum rod inventories also decreased. The State Council's eight - department document promotes the stable growth of the non - ferrous industry [11][12]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut makes the US dollar weak. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. Pre - holiday stocking drives inventory reduction, and the spot is at a discount. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, consumption and inventory - reduction sustainability need to be observed. In the medium term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports. In August 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy decreased by 16.7% year - on - year [13]. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and cost reduction space is limited. Supply - side production is increasing, and demand is marginally improving. Inventories are accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage. In the medium term, supply and demand are weak, but raw - material disruptions are possible, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount to the main contract. As of September 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventories decreased by 0.90 tons. CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of Q4 2025 at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [15][16]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is slightly negative. Zinc ore supply is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand is average. Fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation makes the non - ferrous sector strong, and zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term [16]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ingot production will remain high in September, and inventories may accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingot decreased by 125 yuan/ton. Social inventories of lead ingots decreased by 0.43 tons. After pre - holiday stocking, there may be new low - price stocking intentions, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday [17]. - **Logic**: Spot premiums are narrowing, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is decreasing. The cost of recycled lead smelting is rising, and production is increasing. Demand is in the transition period, and the lead - acid battery industry's operating rate is high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the US dollar rebounded slightly. Pre - holiday battery factory stocking is almost over, and demand may decline. Supply may increase, and costs are rising slightly. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME nickel inventories increased by 1188 tons to 231,312 tons. High - nickel pig iron prices are under pressure. A battery recycling company in Germany will build a large - scale lithium - battery recycling plant [21][22]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel salt prices are slightly weakening, and inventories are accumulating. Short - term trading is recommended, and the performance of the ore end and macro - sentiment should be observed [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the non - ferrous sector is strong, but LME nickel inventories are increasing significantly. Nickel prices may strengthen in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the long term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. - **Analysis**: As of September 29, stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 357 tons. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel point [25]. - **Logic**: Ferronickel and ferrochrome prices are stable. Stainless - steel production increased in August. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse receipts decreased. The structural over - supply pressure has eased. - **Outlook**: There is a risk of increased production cuts by steel mills. The fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory and cost changes. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 105 tons to 2670 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons to 5950 tons. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot decreased by 2300 yuan/ton [25]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the core concern. The resumption of production in Wabang's Manxiang mining area is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Tin concentrate processing fees are low, and the operating rate of refined tin is low. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening in the second half of the year, and inventory reduction is difficult in Q4. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to oscillate [26]. 3.2行情监测 Not provided in the content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2235.10, down 0.13%; the commodity 20 index was 2510.22, down 0.08%; the industrial products index was 2238.46, down 0.50%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2406.68, with a daily decline of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.43%, a one - month increase of 0.89%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.26% [152][154].

Report Information - Report Title: Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum Q4 Report - Prices Approach Cost, Limited Decline for Alumina; Consumption May Be Overdrawn, Center of Electrolytic Aluminum Shifts Down [1] - Report Date: September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Alumina - In Q3, the alumina market was in a supply surplus. After a short - lived price increase due to market sentiment, prices dropped as the market returned to the surplus fundamentals. The supply is expected to remain ample in Q4, but prices are close to the cost line. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts may occur, potentially leading to a rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, while long - term investors can consider buying near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In Q3, aluminum prices fluctuated between Fed rate - cut expectations and market fundamentals. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but the growth in supply is limited. Demand is weakening, especially in the real estate sector. Although there is some support from the macro - environment, prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint and Strategy Alumina - **Market Review**: In Q3, the alumina market was in surplus. After a price spike due to "anti - involution" sentiment, prices fell as the market reverted to surplus fundamentals [5]. - **Supply**: The supply outlook is bearish. Although Guinea's ore shipments decreased in Q3, Australia's increased, and port inventories continued to build up, supporting high alumina plant operating rates [5]. - **Demand**: Demand is expected to be range - bound. High electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization ensures a large demand for alumina, but the growth in demand is limited as electrolytic aluminum capacity nears the "capacity ceiling" [5]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is bearish. Profitable production led to strong output and continuous inventory accumulation. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bullish. In Q4, as the rainy season in Guinea ends, ore supply will increase, and prices may decline slightly. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts could narrow the surplus, and prices may rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, and long - term investors can buy near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: In Q3, aluminum prices oscillated between Fed rate - cut expectations and fundamentals, with strong resistance at the 20,800 level. After a short - lived rise in mid - September, prices fell back [6]. - **Supply**: Supply is bearish. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but future supply growth is limited as capacity approaches the "ceiling" [6]. - **Demand**: Demand is bearish. Domestic demand is weak, especially in the real estate sector, and exports of major aluminum products remain sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is slightly bearish. With a lower proportion of molten aluminum, social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years [6]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bearish. Supply will continue to pressure prices, but there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest in Q4. Consumption, which was strong in the first half, shows signs of being overdrawn, and demand growth is expected to slow. The market expects loose monetary policy from the Fed, providing some macro - support. Prices will be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [6]. 02 Bauxite Supply Review and Outlook - **Domestic Bauxite**: In August, China's bauxite production was 5.87 million tons, up 4.82% year - on - year, at a medium level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi increased from July - August, with Henan reaching a two - year high [9]. - **Imports**: In August, imports decreased month - on - month due to the rainy season in Guinea but remained at the highest level in the past six years. From January - August, cumulative imports were 141.7563 million tons, up 31.63% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate [13]. - **Country - Specific Shipments**: From July - August, shipments from Australia to China increased, while those from Guinea decreased, falling to 4.607 million tons in August. As of September 19, port inventory was 28.76 million tons, at a medium - high level in the past six years [17]. 03 Alumina Fundamental Review and Outlook - **Profit and Production**: From July - August, production costs were stable at around 2,852 yuan/ton, and profit was about 400 yuan/ton in August, dropping to 270 yuan/ton in mid - September. Except for Shanxi, capacity utilization increased in other regions [22]. - **Output**: In July, global metallurgical alumina output was 12.952 million tons, up 0.91% year - on - year, reaching a six - year high. In August, China's output was 7.878 million tons, up 12.53% year - on - year, also a six - year high [28]. - **Net Exports**: From January - August, China maintained a net - export status. In July, net imports were - 103,500 tons, and in August, - 86,100 tons, at a very low level in the past six years [33]. - **Inventory**: Since June, inventory has been building up due to ample supply and strong production. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Since May, the market has been in surplus. Although Guinea's shipments decreased in the rainy season, Australian imports compensated, leading to strong output. If prices fall below the cost line in Q4, production cuts may narrow the surplus [40]. 04 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Review and Outlook - **Cost and Profit**: In August, although alumina prices fell, electrolytic aluminum production costs rose slightly to 16,111 yuan/ton, and profit decreased to 4,548 yuan/ton [42]. - **Output**: From July - August, global electrolytic aluminum output was 12.545 million tons, up 1.1% year - on - year, at a six - year high. China's output was 7.566 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year, with August's output reaching a six - year high [45]. - **Imports**: From July - September, the Shanghai - London ratio declined, and in August, imports decreased month - on - month to 495,600 tons, up 16.9% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the past six years [49]. - **Inventory**: From July - August, the proportion of molten aluminum was low, and social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years. SHFE and LME inventories also increased, weakening inventory support [52][56]. 05 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - **Downstream Industry**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The real - estate slump continued to drag down the aluminum - profile industry. In July - August, the operating rate decreased to 42.27% in August and is expected to remain weak [62]. - **Aluminum Sheets and Strips**: From July - August, the operating rate first fell and then rebounded to 70.97% in August, lower than the end of last year [62]. - **Exports**: Trade barriers persisted, and aluminum - product exports showed no significant improvement. Aluminum - profile, sheet - strip, and foil exports decreased year - on - year, while aluminum - cable exports increased but accounted for a small proportion [66][71]. - **End - User Markets**: - **Real Estate**: The real - estate market remained weak. From January - August, new - construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year, with the decline in completion area accelerating [76][81]. - **Automobiles**: From January - August, China's automobile production was 21.026 million vehicles, up 12.64% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0149 in August, indicating a healthy market [85]. - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From January - August, production was 9.6031 million vehicles, up 36.76% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0029 in August [89]. - **Home Appliances**: In Q3, as government subsidies were exhausted, the growth rate of white - goods sales slowed down [94]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January - August, cumulative installed capacity was 1117.23GW, up 48.5% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate. Cumulative new - installed capacity was 230.61GW, up 64.73% year - on - year, also with a narrowing growth rate [99]. 06 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In Q3, high production capacity utilization led to high output. With the inflow of Russian aluminum and weakening consumption, the market turned to a slight surplus. In Q4, there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest, and demand is expected to weaken further, leading to an increase in the surplus to about 129,000 tons [106].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250930: Low-level Fluctuation [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 29, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume was 97,757 lots (-65,749), and the open interest was 83,149 lots (-735). LME nickel rose 0.99%. The spot market trading was okay, and the basis premium narrowed. With weak rebound of non-ferrous metals following copper and weak nickel fundamentals and inventory pressure, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - On September 29, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume was 163,211 lots (-12,046), and the open interest was 87,251 lots (-11,471). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, there is support at the cost - end and the inventory pressure is not significant, so stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. Summary by Content Nickel Market Futures Market - Futures near - month contract closing price on September 29 was 120,820 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan from the previous day. Futures continuous - one contract closing price was 121,560 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan. Futures continuous - two contract closing price was 121,270 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan. Futures continuous - three contract closing price was 121,440 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan [2]. - Shanghai silver futures trading volume on September 29 was 97,757 lots, a decrease of 65,749 lots from the previous day. The open interest of the active contract was 83,149 lots, a decrease of 735 lots [2]. Spot Market - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price on September 29 was 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price was 123,175 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan. 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) average price was 121,200 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2]. - Nickel bean average price on September 29 was 123,325 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory on September 29 was 25,057 tons, a decrease of 96 tons from the previous day. LME nickel total inventory was 231,312 tons, an increase of 1,188 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Market Futures Market - Futures near - month contract closing price on September 29 was 12,620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day. Futures continuous - one contract closing price was 12,760 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. Futures continuous - two contract closing price was 12,785 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. Futures continuous - three contract closing price was 12,930 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2]. - Shanghai stainless steel futures active contract trading volume on September 29 was 163,271 lots, a decrease of 12,046 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 98,722 lots, a decrease of 11,471 lots [2]. Spot Market - 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price on September 29 was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) average price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless steel inventory on September 29 was 87,148 tons, a decrease of 357 tons from the previous day. The 300 - series stainless steel social inventory last week was 596,200 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons [2]. Trading Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - In August, industrial enterprises' profits increased significantly by 21% year-on-year to 19.8%, driven by low base effects, improved upstream industry gross margins, and investment income recognition[4] - The low base contributed 6.7 percentage points to the profit growth, ranking as the third-largest factor[4] - August profits totaled 672.6 billion yuan, with an increase of 111.4 billion yuan year-on-year, where upstream manufacturing contributed 49.9% of this growth[7] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The substantial improvement in upstream industrial profits was primarily from the black metal and non-ferrous metal smelting industries, which saw profit increases of 336 billion yuan and 128 billion yuan respectively[8] - The gross margin for black metal smelting rose to 7% in August from 2% in the same month last year, leading to a gross profit increase of 329 billion yuan[8] - Investment income in August rose by 502 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.6%, contributing 45% to the overall profit growth[9] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - As the base effects diminish and investment income support weakens, profit growth may decline in September[12] - The price index for production materials has been declining, with a 0.5% decrease in the average from early September, indicating potential impacts on commodity prices and enterprise profits[12] - Risks include increased volatility in exports and profit declines due to U.S.-China trade tensions and global supply chain adjustments[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly. The US existing - home sales index in August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, reaching a five - month high, and mortgage rate cuts boosted the housing market. Domestically, the Political Bureau meeting was held on the 29th, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. LME copper inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 837 tons to 293,211 tons, and domestic copper social inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons. Due to the approaching holiday, downstream purchases were cautious. The impact of the mine accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has not been fully eliminated, and it will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. The copper quarterly average price is expected to rise, and investors are advised to go long on dips. They can also focus on the price differences between Comex and LME copper and between domestic and international markets [1]. Aluminum - Alumina was oscillating weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,878 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.52%, and open interest increasing by 11,494 lots to 304,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum was oscillating strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20,770 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.31%, and open interest decreasing by 2,320 lots to 202,000 lots. Aluminum alloy was also oscillating strongly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,982 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, short - position holders took profits and reduced positions, and the downward pressure on alumina eased. Investors are advised to operate with light positions, avoid shorting at low levels, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Due to the double - festival and typhoon - related shutdowns, the processing industry's holiday this year is slightly longer than last year. The market is pinning its hopes on the "Silver October" for consumption. During the holiday, the US will release September ISM manufacturing PMI and non - farm payroll data, and investors should be cautious about large external market fluctuations. They are advised to hold light positions during the holiday and focus on the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots during the holiday and the inventory - consumption trend after the holiday [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.12% to $15,325/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.78% to 122,000 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 96 tons to 25,057 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 325 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable. Stainless steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the mainstream markets at 984,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. The cost of ferronickel increased, strengthening cost support, but supply increased month - on - month. In the new energy sector, ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but cobalt policies may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The weekly social inventory of primary nickel in LME and domestic markets increased slightly. Due to macro factors, supply - side disruptions, and rising raw material prices, the bottom of nickel prices may rise slightly, but inventory remains a resistance to price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of flat - copper was 82,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from September 26th; the premium of flat - copper remained at - 40 yuan/ton; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 74,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the refined - scrap spread in Guangdong decreased by 270 yuan to 2,284 yuan; the prices of oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai decreased by 200 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1,114 tons to 292,371 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons to 21.6 million tons [3]. Lead - Market prices: On September 29th, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan from September 26th; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China decreased by 10 yuan to - 140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 600 tons to 218,825 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouse receipts decreased by 2,818 tons to 31,946 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: On September 29th, the Wuxi quotation was 20,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from September 26th; the Nanhai quotation was 20,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi spread increased by 10 yuan to - 70 yuan; the spot premium was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 515,600 tons, and the SHFE total inventory decreased by 3,108 tons to 124,626 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.5 million tons to 59.2 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons to 7.2 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 425 yuan from September 26th; the price of 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased by 50 yuan to 500 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 826 tons to 29,008 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 21,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% from September 26th; the SMM 0 spot price was 21,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 825 tons to 41,950 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons to 12.84 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 272,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% from September 26th; the SMM spot price was 271,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,300 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 429 tons to 6,559 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 105 tons to 2,670 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventories, SHFE inventories, social inventories, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][16][24][30][36][42]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [51][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the context of mining disturbances, the Shanghai copper price showed strong performance yesterday. Macro - economically, with potential further interest rate cuts in 2025, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, although copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, supply tightening in Q4 2025 due to mine shutdowns will support the price. In the short - term, prices may rise due to mining disturbances, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions will provide bottom support. The price center may gradually rise, with support at 81,000 - 81,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The market is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. Supply pressure is high with high domestic operating capacity and open import windows. Demand is weak, and the spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is generally warm, but the dollar index brings uncertainty. Fundamentally, supply and demand are mixed. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy futures oscillated with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost is rigid. Demand shows a mild recovery, and with pre - holiday stocking, the price is expected to remain high and oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, which may turn into an oversupply if inventory accumulates significantly. Demand is not outstanding. In the short - term, the price may rise due to macro - factors, but the upward elasticity is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 22,500 [9]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand has not improved significantly. After Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, the price rose. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain high and oscillate in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in an oscillating state. Macro - economically, there are expectations of further interest rate cuts. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of nickel iron is mixed. The price is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 125,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of nickel iron is stable. Supply is expected to increase, but demand has not significantly improved. The price is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,200 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly. Supply increment is marginal, and demand is robust. The whole industry chain is de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate and be sorted out, with the main price center in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.33% to 82,210 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.36% to 82,190 yuan/ton; SMM wet - process copper price fell by 0.32% to 82,125 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 111.37 yuan/ton to - 564 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Weekly Fundamental Data - The index of imported copper concentrates increased by 0.44 dollars/ton to - 40.36 dollars/ton; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 11.95% to 63.79 million tons [1]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory increased by 2.63% to 14.83 million tons; bonded area inventory decreased by 4.95% to 7.30 million tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 6.65% to 9.88 million tons [1]. Aluminum and Alumina Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.39% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss was - 1,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 153 yuan/ton [3]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, an increase of 0.30% month - on - month; imports were 21.73 million tons, a decrease of 12.5% month - on - month; exports were 2.56 million tons, a decrease of 36.6% month - on - month [3]. Weekly Fundamental Data - Aluminum profile开工率 increased by 1.11% to 54.60%; aluminum cable开工率 remained unchanged at 65.20% [3]. Inventory Data - Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.29% to 61.70 million tons; LME inventory remained unchanged at 51.6 million tons [3]. Alumina - The price of alumina futures decreased by 0.41% to 2,904 yuan/ton. The supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM ADC12 alloy prices in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - to - refined price difference decreased in various regions [5]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, an increase of 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Weekly Fundamental Data - The overall recycled aluminum alloy开工率 decreased by 0.35% to 53.41%, with different trends among large, medium, and small enterprises [5]. Inventory Data - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.72% to 5.57 million tons [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.46% to 21,630 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 127.44 yuan/ton to - 3,429 yuan/ton [9]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% month - on - month; exports were 0.03 million tons, a decrease of 23.40% month - on - month [9]. Weekly Fundamental Data - Galvanizing开工率 decreased by 2.23% to 55.82%; die - casting zinc alloy开工率 decreased by 4.05% to 49.73%; zinc oxide开工率 increased by 0.34% to 58.45% [9]. Inventory Data - Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 9.94% to 14.14 million tons; LME inventory decreased by 2.34% to 4.3 million tons [9]. Tin Price and Spreads - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.84% to 271,400 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 5.40% to - 15,851.22 yuan/ton [11]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Tin ore imports were 10,267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% month - on - month [11]. Inventory Data - SHEF inventory decreased by 6.14% to 6,559 tons; social inventory decreased by 6.66% to 7,890 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Spreads - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.37% to 122,000 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 19.89% to - 1,547 yuan/ton [12]. Cost Data - The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.15% to 117,171 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.96% to 125,970 yuan/ton [12]. Monthly Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17,536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% month - on - month [12]. Inventory Data - SHFE inventory increased by 8.49% to 29,834 tons; social inventory increased by 1.04% to 41,484 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.20% to 230,124 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spreads - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the spot - to - futures price difference decreased by 96.53% to 460 yuan/ton [14]. Monthly Fundamental Data - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, an increase of 60.48% month - on - month; exports were 44.79 million tons, an increase of 7.60% month - on - month [14]. Inventory Data - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.13% to 47.74 million tons; SHFE contract orders decreased by 0.45% to 8.71 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spreads - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.07% to 73,550 yuan/ton; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF increased by 0.12% to 858 dollars/ton [16]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104,023 tons, an increase of 8.25% month - on - month; imports were 21,847 tons, an increase of 57.79% month - on - month [16]. Inventory Data - Lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 3.75% to 94,177 tons; downstream inventory increased by 16.46% to 53,440 tons; smelter inventory decreased by 21.60% to 40,737 tons [16].

Core Viewpoint - Company resumes interim cash dividend distribution after 9 years, proposing a cash dividend of 670 million yuan, accounting for 46.5% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 76.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, marking a record high for the period; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.441 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.94% [2][7]. - The company has cumulatively achieved a net profit of 25.392 billion yuan since its listing [8]. Dividend and Share Buyback - The proposed cash dividend of 670 million yuan is part of a broader shareholder return strategy, which includes a total of 8 billion yuan spent on dividends and share buybacks since listing [3][6]. - The company has set a target to distribute at least 50% of its distributable profits in cash over the next three years, contingent on meeting cash dividend conditions [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has increased approximately 65% year-to-date, closing at 5.16 yuan per share on September 29, 2025, up from 3.13 yuan at the beginning of the year [2][9]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has expanded its production capacity, with the Mirador copper mine's second phase expected to reach full production by 2026, adding 140,000 tons of copper concentrate capacity per year [8][9]. - As of mid-2025, the company has an annual cathode copper production capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons and an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons for high-precision electronic copper foil [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Alumina: No clear indication from the symbol, but it's in a weak - running state [1][3] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Zinc: ☆☆, indicating a long/short bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the market [1] - Lead: ☆☆, same as above [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Tin: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Polysilicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, mine production, inventory changes, and market sentiment. Different metals are in different market states, with some showing upward or downward trends, while others are in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed up in shock. The spot copper was reported at 82,210 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount was 5 yuan. The supply absence of Grasberg for two quarters affected the balance sheet and the price shock center. Technically, LME copper showed potential for a trend breakthrough, and the MA20 moving average provided strong support. After the long - term damage to the supply of major copper mines, funds poured in and increased positions, driving up the price. The support level of LME copper rose to $10,000, and the Shanghai copper index was around 79,700 - 80,300 yuan, with 83,000 - 85,000 yuan being the high - level area [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly today, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 25,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The destocking before the National Day was neutral, and the apparent consumption in September was basically flat year - on - year. The demand was resilient but lacked highlights. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remained at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increased enterprise costs, making it more resilient than Shanghai aluminum. However, the industry inventory was at a high level, and the peak - season demand remained to be seen. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 98 million tons, and the industry inventory continued to rise. The supply surplus was obvious, and the domestic and foreign spot prices continued to decline. The current price still had a profit for the production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was not enough to trigger production cuts. The weak - running support of alumina was around the June low of 2,800 yuan [3] Zinc - As the National Day holiday approached, the downstream restocking was coming to an end. The production expectation of Huoshaoyun zinc smelter was strengthening, and the zinc fundamentals were weakening. Short - sellers increased their positions significantly. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc increased by 20,700 lots to 251,000 lots, and the main contract touched a minimum of 21,665 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic concentrate TC in October was significantly reduced by 300 yuan/metal ton. With the poor smelting profit of imported ore, the domestic mines were less willing to offer concessions. The support level of Shanghai zinc was still to be concerned at 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was low, so beware of the possible sudden soft squeeze on the overseas market during the holiday. It was recommended that short - sellers close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties during the National Day holiday [4] Lead - The previously overhauled primary lead smelters resumed production one after another. After the profit of secondary lead smelters was repaired, the resumption of production also increased. The downstream restocking before the holiday was basically over, and the long holiday brought short - term oversupply. The lead fundamentals were weakening, and the long - positions of Shanghai lead accelerated to leave the market. The market dropped significantly, erasing the monthly increase in a single day. The supply of lead concentrates was still tight, and the cost support around 16,500 yuan/ton was still to be concerned [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was running weakly, and the market trading was dull. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 325 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 25 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was quoted at 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation turmoil, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 40,900 tons, the nickel ferrochrome inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 909,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and the nickel price was running weakly, about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down in shock, and the MA40 moving average provided support. Pay attention to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 in the evening. On the supply side, pay attention to the change in the refined tin operating rate after the major factories resume production after the holiday. On the demand side, the domestic tin upstream and downstream continued the destocking rhythm and actively restocked before the holiday. Pay attention to the inventory change after the holiday, and the actual demand still lacked highlights. The tin price was difficult to break out of a trend market for the time being. After the restocking was over, it was recommended to hold a light position and wait and see during the holiday [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 136,800 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 33,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 61,000 tons. After the price dropped rapidly, the downstream took the opportunity to take delivery, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,000 tons. The middle - stream began to be cautious. The transfer of cargo rights was mainly from the upstream to the downstream. The low - level support of the lithium carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut was implemented and the anti - involution tide ebbed, the price was under pressure from the expected end. Still pay attention to the news on September 30th [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased in position and fell back to 8,600 yuan/ton, partly affected by the weakening sentiment of the coking coal market. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was reduced by 50 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton. Although the expected reduction in the polysilicon production schedule in October was limited, the drag on the demand for industrial silicon was relatively controllable. However, the time node of production cuts in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas of industrial silicon was still uncertain, and the supply - side contraction rhythm was not clear. From the current supply - demand pattern, it was difficult to form an effective driving force to support the continuous upward movement of the price, and the upward space was still restricted. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market oscillation narrowed. With the gradual advancement of policies, the sentiment gradually returned to rationality. The production reduction intensity of polysilicon in October might be less than the previous market expectation, and the overall output contraction of the industry was limited. The industry was still in the period of high - level inventory accumulation, and the rise of the spot price slowed down. The short - term market was expected to maintain an oscillating operation. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11]