Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court has halted Trump's global tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), leading to a significant shift in U.S. trade policy and increasing global trade uncertainty [1][5]. Group 1: Legal and Political Implications - The Supreme Court's ruling is seen as a major limitation on Trump's powers and a setback for his economic agenda for a second term [1]. - Legal scholars suggest that the ruling marks a critical moment in the legal battle over Trump's tariffs, emphasizing the need to define the boundaries of presidential power [5]. - Trump's immediate response includes plans to impose a new 10% global tariff for 150 days, which he later increased to 15% [1][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Supreme Court's decision, U.S. stock markets experienced a temporary relief rally, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.47% and the S&P 500 by 0.69% [6]. - Investors' risk appetite improved, overshadowing concerns about economic slowdown and persistent inflation [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Projections - The long-term economic impact of the ruling remains uncertain, with the U.S. Commerce Department reporting a core inflation rate of 3% as of December [7]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly shifted, with traders now anticipating a potential cut in July rather than June [7]. - The ruling is viewed as a policy adjustment rather than a turning point in the economic cycle, with asset prices still influenced by growth, inflation, and fiscal constraints [7]. Group 4: Refund and Legal Challenges - A significant issue arising from the ruling is whether previously paid tariffs will be refunded, with over $130 billion collected in tariffs to date [8]. - Numerous companies, including Costco, have filed lawsuits seeking refunds for tariffs paid under the now-invalidated policy [8][9]. - The political discourse around potential refunds has intensified, with calls for direct payments to American families to offset the costs of illegal tariffs [9]. Group 5: International Responses - Multiple countries are assessing their responses to the new tariffs, with France and Germany indicating they are in discussions regarding the implications of Trump's global tariffs [15][16]. - Canada welcomed the Supreme Court's ruling but noted that challenges remain due to existing tariffs under the Trade Expansion Act [15]. - Mexico is taking a cautious approach, evaluating the legal scope of the ruling and its actual impact on its trade relations with the U.S. [16].

重点关注： · 美国总统特朗普将发表国情咨文； · 中方敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关税措施 ； · MSCI中国指数2月调整将 于 2月27日收盘 生效； 01 2. 商务部：中方敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关税措施 宏观与金融 （一）回顾 1. 特朗普新加征关税税率加码至 15% 2月21日，美国总统 特朗普 宣布将此前依据《 1974年贸易法》第122条拟征收的10%全球进口关 税，上调至15%，并自2026年2月24日起生效。此举是对美国最高法院于2月20日裁定其援引《国 际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）加征关税"越权"的直接回应。 · 英伟达 将 发布重磅财报； · 中国 2月LPR 料将按兵不动。 15%的全球性关税将直接推高美国进口商品成本，涉及消费品、电子设备、工业零部件等广泛领 域，可能逆转美国通胀下行趋势，制约美联储降息空间。 截至 2月21日，包括开市客（Costco）在内的数百家美国企业已提起诉讼，要求退还此前依据 IEEPA非法征收的关税，估算总额超1750亿美元。 15%关税为临时性措施，150天后若未获国会批准将自动失效。同时，美国政府正同步推进《1962 年贸易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This year's Spring Festival holiday had unique advantages, including the longest duration in history and a consumption - stimulating activity. It showed excellent performance in multiple dimensions, especially in travel and consumption. The real - estate market showed signs of hitting the bottom, while the film market was dismal. Overseas capital markets had various trends due to factors like Fed's FOMC meeting minutes, geopolitical conflicts, and AI industry development [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Travel - The Spring Festival travel rush saw a continuous increase in long - distance travel. The total cross - regional passenger flow from February 2nd to 21st this year increased by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2025 and 26.3% compared to 2019, reaching a record high. The number of passengers in various transportation modes increased by about 5% - 6%. The self - driving travel enthusiasm was significantly boosted, with the national population migration scale index from the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month to the fifth day of the first lunar month increasing by 22.2% this year compared to 2025 [3][9][12]. - The difference in growth rates between the data from the Ministry of Transport and Baidu Migration was likely due to statistical methods. The non - operational passenger volume on roads accounted for 81.3% of the total cross - regional passenger flow, indicating that self - driving was the main mode of travel during the Spring Festival [16][17]. Consumption - Retail, catering, and service consumption were active. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, higher than the growth rates during the May Day and National Day holidays in 2025. The consumption of domestic tourism on key platforms increased by 4.5% in the first three days of the holiday. The rental car order volume on key platforms increased by 26%, and the north - south cross - region orders increased by 196% [4][19][22]. - The "trade - in" policy continued to release consumer demand. By February 19th, the trade - in of consumer goods benefited 28.88 million people, driving sales of 198.02 billion yuan. Smart devices maintained high growth, and Hainan's duty - free sales increased rapidly [22]. Film Market The film market continued its dismal performance since 2025, hitting a new low in the Spring Festival season in the past 7 years. As of the afternoon of the sixth day of the first lunar month, the cumulative box office of this year's Spring Festival season was 4.91 billion yuan, and it was unlikely to exceed 6 billion yuan. The number of screenings reached a new high, but the number of movie - goers hit a new low, mainly due to the lack of high - quality works [25]. Real - Estate Market The real - estate market showed a weak rebound at the bottom, with first - tier cities having a stronger rebound than second - and third - tier cities. From the first to the fifth day of the first lunar month, the average daily sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.04 million square meters, a 24.9% increase compared to the same period last year. The transaction and listing prices of second - hand houses in January also showed signs of stabilization. If the trend in the past 1 - 2 months continues, the real - estate sales may have hit the bottom [5][29]. Overseas Capital Markets - Most overseas bond yields declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield adjusted upwards due to the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and tariff policy fluctuations. European bond markets generally strengthened under the expectation of easing. The 10 - year Japanese government bond yield declined by 10.9bp, while the 10 - year Indian government bond yield increased by 4.8bp [6][32]. - The US dollar index strengthened, and the copper - gold ratio fluctuated weakly. Most overseas commodities rose, with oil and coal prices rising by more than 5%. Precious metals and some agricultural products also had varying degrees of increase [35][37]. - European and American stock markets rose collectively, while Asian stock markets were divided. The US stock market rebounded strongly, and European stock markets followed suit. The South Korean stock market hit a record high, while the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets were weak. The FTSE A50 index rose 0.3% during the holiday [40].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the vibrant consumer activity during the Spring Festival, reflecting strong economic growth and consumer confidence in China [1][2][3] - The Spring Festival holiday lasted from February 15 to February 23, totaling 9 days, allowing for more leisurely arrangements for family gatherings and travel, which significantly boosted consumption [1] - Payment transactions processed by UnionPay and NetUnion reached 4.931 billion on New Year's Eve, marking a 21.64% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a robust consumer market [1] Group 2 - There was a notable shift in consumer preferences towards green, smart, and health-oriented products during the holiday, showcasing an upgrade in consumption patterns and creating new growth opportunities for related industries [2] - The average daily cross-regional movement of people during the holiday was predicted to reach 299 million, setting a new record for the Spring Festival, which contributed to increased travel and consumption [2] - The hotel accommodation revenue grew by 32.7%, and car rental orders surged by 54%, reflecting an extended travel radius and a broader impact of the Spring Festival consumption wave [2] Group 3 - Government policies played a crucial role in supporting the festive market, with initiatives aimed at ensuring the supply and stable prices of essential goods, as well as promoting diverse consumption scenarios [3] - The "Lego New Spring" campaign, organized by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments, included the distribution of consumer vouchers and subsidies, effectively stimulating market enthusiasm [3] - By February 19, the "old-for-new" consumption initiative benefited 28.88 million people and generated sales of 198.02 billion, demonstrating the successful conversion of consumer intent into actual purchasing power [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the vibrant consumer activity during the Spring Festival, reflecting strong economic growth and consumer confidence in China [1][2][3] - The Spring Festival holiday lasted from February 15 to February 23, totaling 9 days, allowing for more leisurely arrangements for family gatherings and travel [1] - Payment transactions processed by UnionPay and NetLink reached 4.931 billion on New Year's Eve, marking a 21.64% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a robust consumer market [1] Group 2 - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards green, smart, and health-oriented products during the Spring Festival, indicating a trend of consumption upgrading [2] - The average daily cross-regional movement of people during the holiday is expected to reach 299 million, potentially setting a new record for the Spring Festival [2] - Hotel accommodation revenue increased by 32.7%, and car rental orders surged by 54%, demonstrating an extended travel radius and a broader reach of the Spring Festival consumption boom [2] Group 3 - Government policies have played a crucial role in supporting the festive market, including measures to ensure the supply and price stability of essential goods [3] - The "New Spring Shopping" campaign, initiated by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments, included the distribution of consumer vouchers and subsidies, effectively stimulating market enthusiasm [3] - By February 19, the consumption upgrade program benefited 28.88 million people, generating sales of 198.02 billion, showcasing the successful conversion of consumer intent into actual purchasing power [3]

Group 1: Travel and Consumption Trends - The travel and consumption market during the Spring Festival shows a moderate recovery with distinct characteristics, supported by both product and service consumption [2][4] - Daily average cross-regional personnel flow reached 248 million during the first 19 days of the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with water transport being a significant growth driver [5][8] - The travel market is transitioning from a "one-way homecoming migration" to a dual flow of "homecoming and holiday leisure," indicating a more diverse travel structure [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Spending Insights - Consumer spending is supported by policies promoting upgrades, holiday stocking, and gift consumption, with key retail and catering enterprises showing an average sales increase of 8.6% compared to the same period last year [9] - Notable growth in smart products, with sales of smart wearable devices increasing by 19.7%, and specific categories like smart glasses and blood glucose monitors seeing significant growth [9][10] - Service consumption, particularly in tourism, is a major contributor, with domestic travel consumption increasing by 4.5% during the holiday [10] Group 3: Policy Focus on Demand Expansion and Structural Optimization - Recent policies focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing economic structure, aiming for both short-term stability and long-term high-quality development [17][18] - The first policy line emphasizes boosting domestic demand, expanding consumption, and stabilizing investment through various measures, including maintaining liquidity and optimizing the consumption environment [17] - The second policy line targets optimizing economic structure and promoting innovation, with measures to curb disorderly competition and support the development of new industries [18] Group 4: Weekly High-Frequency Data Overview - The investment sector shows a mixed performance, with new medium to long-term loans lower than previous years, while special bond issuance is progressing relatively quickly [19] - External trade remains resilient, with notable increases in exports, particularly in semiconductors, despite a decline in manufacturing PMI in the U.S. [21] - Price levels show a slight increase in CPI, while PPI remains stable, with food and service prices driving the CPI increase [21][22]

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，或因天气原因，春节假期出行需求对相关消费拉动明显；春节假期原油等全球定价商品价格中枢保持强势，PPI同比于 Q2转正概率进一步增加。 海外方面，1）美最高院裁定特朗普关税非法，裁决结果出来后特朗普立即采取122关税征收150天的15%临时进口关税，2月24日 生效。2）美国Q4实际GDP环比折年率1.4%，预期2.8%，前值4.4%。投资是主要亮点，由0.8%升至2.6%。3）美联储1月纪要显示 内部分歧加大，总体来看，官员对就业市场的担忧有所减轻，而对通胀的担忧则有所增加。 资产方面，预计节后国内资本市场除关注春晚题材外，仍将加大对通胀（PPI）方向的配置。值得注意的是，即便国际油价受美伊 局势影响，但其价格中枢也将继续保持上移态势，上调WTI油价全年均值至65-70美元/桶区间。 1、春节经济数据看点：1）出行：春节居民出行意愿高涨，全国迁徙指数显著高于2019及2025年，自驾公路出行占主导，腊月二 十五至正月初四，全社会跨区域流量同比增长7.55%；国内出游占主导，出入境游进一步活跃，赴日旅行人数骤减；重点旅游地区 的游客数量、收入增长可观；2）票房：出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in retail and catering data during the Spring Festival holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% in the first four days, which is expected to boost the social retail data for the first two months of the year [1][2][52] - The increase in cross-regional travel during the holiday period saw an 8.7% rise compared to the previous year, with water transport showing remarkable growth of 28.5%, influenced by tourism demand and the reopening of Hainan [3][12][54] - Price stability was observed in key sectors, with high-end liquor and hotel prices in popular small cities increasing, while prices in first-tier cities and movie ticket prices saw declines [4][16][55] Group 2 - Structural highlights in consumption include a strong performance in mid-to-high-end products like gold and duty-free items, with gold consumption remaining robust and duty-free sales in Hainan increasing by 20.9% [5][14][56] - Domestic and cross-border travel maintained momentum, with hotel accommodation transaction values rising by 32.7% and a predicted double-digit growth in daily inbound and outbound travelers at national ports [5][14][57] - The trend towards smart and health-oriented consumption was evident, with significant sales growth in smart wearable devices and organic foods during the holiday period [5][14][57] Group 3 - Weekly economic observations indicate a rebound in durable goods consumption, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 54% year-on-year in early February, contrasting with a decline of 13.9% in January [6][24] - Real estate sales showed improvement, with a 5% year-on-year increase in residential sales area in 27 cities as of mid-February, compared to a decline of 16% in January [6][25] - Export activities showed signs of recovery, with a 32.3% increase in the number of outbound port calls compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend in trade [6][30]

Group 1: New Consumption Trends During Spring Festival - The Spring Festival in Shandong has seen new consumption trends, with a focus on unique experiences and social media engagement [1][4] - Traditional markets are evolving, with live streaming and social media becoming integral to the shopping experience, particularly among younger consumers [2][4] - Non-heritage products are gaining popularity, with a 187% year-on-year increase in sales of related items, especially those themed around the Year of the Horse [7][8] Group 2: Rural Tourism and Cultural Consumption - Rural tourism is experiencing a surge, driven by returning visitors seeking authentic local experiences, with over 10,000 tickets sold for events in rural areas [11][13] - Cultural consumption, particularly theater performances, is becoming a preferred choice for many, especially younger audiences, who value the immersive experience [14][16] - The inbound tourism market in Qingdao is thriving, with international visitors exploring the city beyond traditional tourist spots, enhancing the local economy [17][19] Group 3: New Retail Formats - The "first store economy" is emerging as a new driver of consumption during the Spring Festival, with unique offerings and engaging environments attracting customers [8][10]

Group 1 - The core trend in Hainan's Spring Festival tourism is the increasing involvement of young people, who are taking on the role of "Spring Festival hosts" and bringing new changes to consumption with a focus on self-expression and individuality [1][2] - Young people are creatively reinterpreting traditional customs, such as preparing fusion dishes for the New Year's Eve dinner and organizing unique photography sessions for the elderly, enhancing the cultural experience [1][2] - The emergence of creative shops and themed accommodations reflects a shift towards a more vibrant and diverse cultural tourism landscape in Hainan, driven by the innovative expressions of the youth [1][2] Group 2 - Hainan is actively capturing and catering to the preferences of young consumers through a series of engaging cultural and tourism activities, such as village sports events and interactive experiences with humanoid robots [2] - Upgrades in smart reservation systems and tailored offerings in accommodations and dining are creating a positive cycle of demand and supply, enhancing the overall visitor experience [2] - The demographic structure of visitors to Hainan during the Spring Festival is becoming more balanced and younger, with significant increases in participation from the "00s" and "95s" age groups, alongside the traditional "80s" family units [2][3] Group 3 - The interaction between young people and Hainan's cultural landscape represents a mutual engagement, where youth invigorate traditional customs while Hainan provides a platform for creative expression [3] - The vibrant and creative atmosphere in Hainan is attracting a continuous influx of young visitors, showcasing the region's openness and modern appeal [3]