$ 期市动态雷达 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中29个合约上涨,50个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的空头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在下跌品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% 涨幅居前的品种: 沪金2512(+3.82%)、碳酸锂2511(+2.55%)、沪银 ● 2512(+2.06%)、焦炭2601(+1.64%)、红枣2601(+1.6%)。这些品种受 数据透视线索 看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 EFF 2025 10-17 15:50 供需影响显者。 跌幅居前的品种：烧碱2601(-4.37%)、玻璃2601(-3.69%)、低硫燃油 2512(-3.22%)、中证2512(-2.61%)、生猪2601(-2.55%)，可能受空头 力量增强或基本面利空影响。 6 - 200 (7 7 ) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 资金流入最多的品种： 中证1000 2512(31.36亿元)、沪金2512(12.74 亿元)、沪银2512(6.01亿元),这些品种吸引了大量主力资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种： 沪深300 2512(-7. ...

10月17日，受多重因素影响，港股三大指数全天呈现单边下跌行情，恒生科技指数尾盘一度大跌至4.5%，最终收跌4.05%报5760点，恒生指数跌2.48%报 25247点，国企指数跌2.67%险守9000点关口，三大指数齐刷近期调整新低。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 800700 | 恒生科技指数 | O | 5760.38 | -243.18 | -4.05% | | 800100 | 国企指数 | | 9011.97 | -247.49 | -2.67% | | 800000 | 恒生指数 | | 25247.10 | -641.41 | -2.48% | 盘面上，大型科技股等权重集体弱势拖累大市下挫；半导体股、加密货币概念股纷纷下跌，中兴通讯跌近13%；此外，金价早盘短线跳水跌破4280美元，黄 金股多数转跌。另一方面，零售股、珠宝钟表股逆势上涨，老铺黄金逆势涨超3%，奢侈品股普拉达涨超2%。 | 行业热力图 √ | 领涨板块 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | ...

宏观日报 | 2025-10-17 能源、农业上游价格回落 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）全球最大半导体代工企业——台积电16日公布了其第三季度财务报告，营收、净利润均超过市场预 期，提振了市场对人工智能芯片需求激增的乐观预期。台积电的业绩也被视为人工智能芯片需求的风向标，目前 来看，芯片制造行业趋势强劲。台积电在财报发布后的法说会上表示，人工智能需求持续强劲，比3个月前预期的 还要强劲。该公司认为人工智能市场发展非常积极，其对人工智能这一大趋势的信心正在增强。工艺/产能方面则 提到：A16制程下半年有望实现量产；2纳米制程本季度晚些时候将实现量产；正在台湾筹备多期2纳米晶圆厂建设； 日本第二座晶圆厂已开工建设等。 服务行业：1）商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，商务部将进一步加强政策储备，适时推出新的稳外贸政策。何咏前 指出，今年前三季度，中国外贸承压前行，稳中有进、稳中向好。下一步，商务部将从释放政策效能、开展贸易 促进、深化贸易合作等方面开展工作 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：国际油价近期回落较多。2）农业：猪肉价格回落。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率三年同期中位。2）能源：电 ...

近年，美国智库"战略与国际研究中心"发布了一份引人注目的预测报告：到2049年，全球将形成三大超级大国——美 国、中国和巴西。而传统强国俄罗斯和日本竟意外落选。这份名单一出，瞬间在国际舆论场炸开了锅。 根据普遍预测，中国在2030年前后有望成为全球第一大经济体。此后，其经济总量的领先优势预计将持续扩大。 一、美国：全球经济的"操作系统" 美国的核心霸权，首先体现在金融层面。美元体系是其最坚固的护城河。 尽管面临"去美元化"的杂音，但美元在国际支付、外汇储备和全球大宗商品定价中的主导地位，在可预见的未来仍难以 被撼动。 这赋予了美国一种"例外"权力——可以通过货币政策向全球转嫁危机，并通过金融制裁这种"金融核武器"打击对手。 纽约和华尔街依然是全球资本的终极归宿。其无与伦比的资本市场深度、流动性和复杂性，能够持续为全球最前沿的科 技和创意进行定价和输血。只要全球资本仍将美国视为最安全、回报最高的投资地，它的经济心脏就将强劲跳动。 中国经济的转型是其超级大国地位的基石，其核心是规模与质量的双重跃升。 二、中国：从"世界工厂"到"全球大脑与市场" 中国正在奋力爬升产业链价值链。从"衬衫换飞机"到"新能源汽车、光伏产 ...

10月16日是第45个世界粮食日。联合国相关报告指出，当前全球仍有数亿人口面临饥饿威胁，粮食安全形势依然严峻。围绕世界粮食安全现状、中国对全球 粮食安全的贡献等核心议题，总台记者专访了世界粮食奖基金会荣誉主席肯尼斯·奎因。 肯尼斯·奎因此次专程来华，出席2025世界农业科技创新大会。尽管行动不便，三年来，这位83岁的老人仍坚持每年都到北京参与这场农业领域的国际盛 会。 世界粮食奖基金会荣誉主席 肯尼斯·奎因：2049年地球人口将达到100亿，我们能否可持续地生产足够的粮食来养活这么多人口，这是我们人类面临的最大挑 战。这就是为什么世界农业科技创新大会如此重要，也是为什么我已经83岁高龄却仍在工作、仍在来中国的原因。 作为全球粮食安全的重要推动者，中国以占世界不到9%的耕地，成功养活了近五分之一的全球人口，实现了从"吃得饱"到"吃得好"的历史性跨越。肯尼斯· 奎因亲眼见证了这一伟大进程。 世界粮食奖基金会荣誉主席 肯尼思·奎因：1979年我来的时候，中国有70%的人口生活在贫困线以下。摆脱贫困，是最令人震撼的变革，最令人惊叹的成 就。 肯尼斯·奎因曾担任世界粮食奖基金会主席，长期致力于全球粮食安全。 世界粮食奖 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 大宗商品研究所 2025 年 10 月 17 日 0 / 45 大宗商品研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 豆粕：市场整体稳定 | 盘面震荡运行 3 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外糖价格再次下跌 | 内外糖大趋势偏弱 3 | | 油脂板块：印尼调整税费，短期维持震荡 5 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：新粮压力减弱，盘面继续偏强 5 | | | 生猪：出栏压力继续体现 | 价格整体回落 6 | | 花生：产区天气仍有影响，花生短期偏强震荡 7 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现尚可 | 蛋价有所企稳 8 | | 苹果：新果质量一般 | 果价有所支撑 8 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价震荡为主 9 | | 钢材：钢材供需改善，钢价小幅反弹 11 | | --- | | 双焦：现货成交良好 底部有支撑 11 | | 铁矿：中期偏空思路对待 12 | | 铁合金：低估值下跟随反弹，但驱动持续性或不足 13 | | 贵金属：美国地区银行信贷爆雷，金银强势上涨 14 | | --- | | 铜：短期铜价存在整固需求，长期趋势不变 15 | | 氧化铝：供需过剩带动偏弱走势不变 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The recently approved "Spatial Special Plan for the Development Axis of Lin'an District, Hangzhou (2025-2035)" aims to address regional development imbalances and promote urban-rural integration through a comprehensive framework focusing on "strengthening cities, revitalizing villages, and integration" [2][5]. Group 1: Spatial Layout - The plan establishes a spatial development layout characterized by "one main, two sub-centers, and N clusters," facilitating urban-rural coordination [3]. - The main urban area will serve as the "main engine" for regional development, focusing on high-end industry aggregation and cultural enhancement [3]. - Two sub-centers, Yuchan and Changhua, will act as bridges, enhancing connectivity and supporting regional development through improved public services and infrastructure [3][4]. Group 2: Key Projects and Initiatives - The plan includes 137 key projects with a total investment exceeding 600 billion yuan, aimed at driving high-quality development in Lin'an [2][7]. - Key projects in the "strengthening cities" category include the Qing Shan Lake International Innovation Center, which will attract high-end talent and innovation [6]. - In the "revitalizing villages" category, projects like the Tianmu Future Valley aim to stimulate local economies through tourism and employment opportunities [6]. Group 3: Addressing Disparities - The plan targets the reduction of income disparities between urban and rural areas, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 1.75 to 1.55 over the past decade [5]. - It aims to tackle the challenges of underdeveloped rural areas, which contribute significantly to the economic output of the urban center [5]. - The plan emphasizes the importance of enhancing local industries and improving the living environment in rural areas to achieve balanced development [5][6]. Group 4: Future Directions - The approval of the plan marks the beginning of efforts to address urban-rural development imbalances and implement effective planning strategies [8]. - Future initiatives will focus on optimizing idle natural resources and enhancing ecological protection while promoting economic growth [8]. - The plan aims to transform ecological advantages into developmental benefits, contributing to the overall goal of building a common prosperity demonstration zone in Hangzhou [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend on Thursday, with inflation data basically in line with expectations. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong necessity for an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter [6]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The supply and demand of steel are imbalanced, with weak downstream demand and high inventory in some varieties [10]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies. Different commodities have different trends and investment strategies [3][6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market was in a shrinking volume and oscillating state on Thursday. Inflation data was basically in line with expectations, and fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, while the necessity of increasing monetary policy in the fourth quarter is strong [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [7]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market may oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The downstream demand for steel is weak, and the inventory of some varieties is high. Iron ore can hold short positions or reduce positions on dips [10][11]. - **Coal and Coke**: The prices of coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the demand of finished products during the "golden nine, silver ten" period [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: From the perspective of supply and demand, silicon alloys are in a medium - long - term short - biased logic, but from the cost - profit perspective, they are in a low - valuation range. Consider buying on dips [13]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a short - biased view and wait for the actual progress of new production capacity. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand and other factors [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is advisable to sell on rallies [18]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. The domestic zinc market has weak spot trading, and the price may follow the external market [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply increasing and the demand supporting the price [20]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range. Consider selling call options [21]. - **Polysilicon**: It will continue to oscillate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the progress of the industry meeting [22]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [24]. - **Sugar**: The end - of - season inventory data is bearish, and the supply is expected to increase. Adopt a short - selling strategy with rolling operations [26]. - **Eggs**: The supply and demand of eggs are in a loose state. Adopt a short - biased strategy for near - term contracts and pay attention to spot price changes [27]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the impact of rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [29]. - **Corn**: Consider buying the 07 contract on dips or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the supply pressure and the purchase of state - owned grain depots [29]. - **Jujubes**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Pay attention to the price game between buyers and sellers and the procurement progress [31]. - **Hogs**: Hold short positions in near - term contracts and consider the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down. Hold existing short positions and expect price recovery in the future [34]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a loose supply - demand structure [35]. - **Plastic**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for a rebound to go short [36]. - **Methanol**: The market is volatile. Wait for a rebound to go long in small quantities [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to the short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the oil price, and the actual demand is weak during the peak season [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply is abundant, and a long - term short - biased view is maintained [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the de - stocking of ports and spot transactions. Consider buying the 01 contract on dips [45]. - **Urea**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to changes in cost and supply [46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The fundamentals are not substantially strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate weakly following the cost [42].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainties. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - The recent intensification of Sino - US trade disputes is conducive to the repair of the bond market in the short term, but the uncertainty of tariff progress is high in the later period. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend overall [7]. - The prices of precious metals are in a stage of trending upward, and it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - For most metals, Sino - US trade tensions bring uncertainties, but different metals have different price trends based on their own fundamentals, such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [12][14][16]. - For steel products, Trump's new tariff remarks have a short - term impact on prices, but in the long - term, the steel price trend remains unchanged under the loose macro - environment. The short - term real demand for steel is weak, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. - For the black building materials sector, although the current fundamentals are weak, considering the macro - factors, the sector may gradually have the cost - performance of long - term allocation, and the key time point may be around the Fourth Plenary Session [41]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on their own supply - demand relationships and market environments, such as rubber, crude oil, methanol, etc. [52][54][55]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, the price of live pigs may have different trends in the near - term and far - term, and the price of eggs is expected to be weak in the short - term and may rebound in the medium - term [77][79]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Ministry of Commerce will introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the construction of millisecond computing networks; TSMC is in the early stage of AI application with strong demand; US Treasury Secretary said Trump will visit Japan and attend the APEC meeting [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy View**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and the short - term index is uncertain, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On October 16, the Ministry of Commerce said it would take measures to stabilize foreign trade. The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Thursday [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2360 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 3760 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term rise in Sino - US trade disputes is beneficial to the bond market, but the long - term depends on fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rose. The overseas silver spot shortage has eased, and the Fed's policy expectations support the prices of gold and silver [8]. - **Strategy View**: The prices of precious metals are rising, and it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The trade situation is volatile, the dollar index is weak, and copper prices are rising. LME copper inventory has decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have changed [11]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. The supply - demand relationship supports copper prices, and the short - term decline may be limited [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are strong. LME aluminum inventory has decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have changed [13]. - **Strategy View**: Sino - US trade is uncertain. The pressure on aluminum ingot inventory is small, and aluminum prices may continue to be strong [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc index fell, and the price of LME zinc rose. The inventory and basis of zinc have changed [15]. - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc production was normal, and the short - term support for Shanghai zinc comes from the opening of the export window. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead index fell, and the price of LME lead fell. The inventory and basis of lead have changed [17]. - **Strategy View**: The lead ore inventory has increased slightly, and the structural risk of LME lead has increased. It is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated. The spot market trading was average, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - **Strategy View**: Sino - US trade friction may have a small impact on nickel prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips if the price drops [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is mixed. The consumption in the traditional peak season has improved [20]. - **Strategy View**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but tin prices may remain high and volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the price of the LC2601 contract rose [21]. - **Strategy View**: Social and exchange inventories are decreasing. The spot is tight, and lithium prices may be strong in the short - term [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of the alumina index fell. The spot price in Shandong and the overseas price remained stable. The futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support, but the alumina production capacity is over - supplied. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of the stainless steel main contract rose. The spot price and inventory have changed [25]. - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, the inventory has increased, and the terminal consumption is weak. The market is expected to be weak [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the AD2511 contract rose. The trading volume and inventory have changed [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost supports the price, but the price upside is limited due to market sentiment and delivery pressure [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts rose. The registered warehouse receipts and inventory have changed [30]. - **Strategy View**: The overall commodity market was strong, but the real demand for steel is weak. The long - term trend is unchanged, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of the iron ore main contract fell. The spot price and basis have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased, and the demand is weak. The iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of the glass main contract rose, and the inventory increased. The price of the soda ash main contract rose, and the inventory increased [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: The glass supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The soda ash supply is stable, and the demand is weak. Both are expected to be weak [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The price of the manganese silicon main contract rose slightly, and the price of the ferrosilicon main contract rose. The spot price and basis have changed [38]. - **Strategy View**: The black building materials sector may rebound after a short - term decline. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to follow the sector's trend [39][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rose, and the price of the polysilicon main contract rose. The spot price and inventory have changed [43][45]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is stable, and the price may rise in the long - term. The polysilicon price is affected by policy and supply - demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][47]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is stabilizing. The tire enterprise's operating rate has changed, and the inventory has decreased [49][51]. - **Strategy View**: The rubber price is stable in the short - term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of the INE main crude oil futures rose, and the inventory of refined oil products in the port has changed [53]. - **Strategy View**: The oil price should not be overly bearish in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol in different regions has changed, and the basis has changed [55]. - **Strategy View**: The import is delayed, and the supply is slightly lower. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea in different regions has changed, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Strategy View**: The urea production has decreased, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene is stable, and the price of styrene has risen. The supply and demand have changed [58]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the decrease in inventory and the increase in demand [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of the PVC01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [60]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of the EG01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [62][64]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of the PTA01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA supply is in a de - stocking pattern, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of the PX01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [68]. - **Strategy View**: The PX load is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [69][70]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of the PE main contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to cost and inventory factors [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of the PP main contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [73]. - **Strategy View**: The PP supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by cost and inventory [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price has risen. The demand in the south is increasing, and the secondary fattening in the north is weakening [76]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large, but the risk has been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price has risen. The supply is stable, and the market is running well [78]. - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, the egg price is weak due to supply and demand factors. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term and wait for a rebound to short [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price has risen, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory have changed. The Brazilian soybean planting area is expected to increase [80]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large, and the global supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term and trade in a range in the short - term [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil export and production have increased. India's vegetable oil import has decreased. Indonesia plans to raise the palm oil export tax [82]. - **Strategy View**: The oils and fats are supported by supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider long positions in the medium - term [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is fluctuating. The Brazilian sugar export is increasing, and the domestic spot price has decreased [84]. - **Strategy View**: The sugar production in Brazil and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [85][86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has risen. The domestic cotton production is expected to increase [87]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is affected by Sino - US trade and supply - demand. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [88].