（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯金新农9月3日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至8月20日公司股东户数为44533户。 ...

通过"一会展两地"的创新模式，高品会实现了资源互通、市场共享与战略协同，进一步推动中国消费品 牌高质量出海，打造真正具有全球影响力的"中国名片"。国货品牌也借助这一国际平台，向世界传递中 国制造与中华文化的独特魅力。 9月3日至7日，第四届中国（澳门）国际高品质消费博览会暨横琴世界湾区论坛（简称"高品会"）以"一 会展两地"的创新方式在横琴与澳门两地同步举行。 9月5日下午，第四届高品会开馆仪式将在澳门威尼斯人金光会展A馆舞台区举办，仪式结束后还将举行 巡馆仪式。 作为推动粤港澳大湾区高品质消费与国际贸易合作的重要平台，本届高品质消费博览会以"满足人民高 品质物质精神需求、引领生活方式升级"为核心，吸引了来自全国各地的优质企业参展，涵盖陶瓷艺 术、白酒、中医药、黄金珠宝、农产品、潮玩等多个领域。 感的花丝工艺，以及以"柿"喻"事"的如意香盒，将传统文化符号与现代审美结合，展现出东方美学的当 代魅力。 从被看见到被需要，赣企积极赴澳参展寻商机 江西此次共有8家企业联合参展，涵盖陶瓷艺术与农业特产两大板块。其中，浮梁晴宇陶瓷带来以"全源 矿釉里红"为核心的高端茶具与典藏花瓶，其"山茶花"系列曾登陆北京保利拍卖会， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest rate cuts. Although there are positive feedbacks on investment and consumption, there are still tail risks. Domestically, the market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved, and recent real - estate policies in first - tier cities may boost transaction volume [7]. - In the short term, market volatility in China may increase. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. The political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market interest - rate cut expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the improvement of mid - stream profits in July. In the real - estate market, first - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, which may increase transaction volume but the sustainability needs to be observed [7]. - **Asset Views**: In China, short - term market volatility may increase at the beginning of September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, supporting total demand recovery [7]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options will fluctuate, and treasury bond futures will also be in a shock state, still depending on the performance of the stock market [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise in shock as the US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, but market risks need attention [8]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to be in a shock state due to factors like inventory changes, policy influences, and supply - demand relationships [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Although the weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, the weak demand also needs attention. Most varieties will be in a shock state, with zinc prices expected to fall in shock [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to fall in shock, while most other chemical products will be in a shock state due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, new - capacity pressures, and cost changes [10]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, including grains, oils, and fibers, are expected to be in a shock state, waiting for further information such as field inspection results [10].

Industry Overview Mid - view Events - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the advancement of artificial intelligence. After the release of the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", Shanghai responded promptly by launching the project application for the 2025 Shanghai "Artificial Intelligence +" Action [1] - In the service industry, attention should be given to the new tax policy. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income from the investment of transferred state - owned equity and cash income, effective from April 1, 2024 [1] Upstream - In the black industry, wire rod prices declined [2] - In the chemical industry, PTA prices continued to fall [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate increased [3] - In the infrastructure sector, the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities slightly increased [4] - In the service sector, the number of domestic flights decreased [4] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: On September 2, the spot price of corn was 2301.4 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.19%; the spot price of eggs had a year - on - year decrease of 0.77%; the spot price of palm oil was 9492.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.51%; the spot price of cotton was 15414.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%; the average wholesale price of pork was 19.8 yuan/kg with a year - on - year decrease of 1.05% [38] - Non - ferrous metals: On September 2, the spot price of copper was 80130.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.62%; the spot price of zinc was 22132.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.65%; the spot price of aluminum was 20636.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the spot price of nickel was 124383.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.72% [38] - Ferrous metals: On September 2, the spot price of aluminum was 16800.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; the spot price of rebar was 3186.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the spot price of iron ore was 22132.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.65% [38] - Others: On September 2, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 64.6 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 68.1 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3928.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; the coal price was 782.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.13% [38]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rolled steel: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and strong [4] - Silver: Volatile and strong [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 boosts raw material sentiment, and iron ore prices are relatively strong. Short - term iron ore fundamentals have limited contradictions and are expected to fluctuate at high levels following finished products. Coal and coke fundamentals are weakening, and the black sector is in a weakening trend. Rolled steel is in a weak fundamental pattern, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. [2] - The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. Gold is expected to be volatile and strong due to various factors such as central bank purchases and market uncertainties. [4] - Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and they are expected to be volatile. Meal prices are also expected to be volatile. Live pig prices are expected to rise slightly next week. [6][7] - Rubber supply is tight, and demand and inventory are favorable, so it is expected to be volatile and strong. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand and cost situations, with most in a wait - and - see or volatile state. [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The "restriction on production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand. The global shipment is slightly down, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure. It is expected to follow finished products and fluctuate at high levels. [2] - **Coal and coke**: Fundamentals are weakening, with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, and demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] - **Rolled steel**: In a weak fundamental pattern, supply remains high, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to be weak. [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment is cooling, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. Demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rising and some being volatile. [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is down, and the market has a net capital withdrawal. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank purchases are key. With factors such as the US debt problem and market uncertainties, gold and silver are expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but demand improvement is uncertain. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. [6] - **Logs**: Supply pressure is not large, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is uncertain. The inventory is declining, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil varieties is increasing. They are expected to be volatile. [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the export situation is not improved. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. They are expected to be volatile. [6][7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average weight of pigs is decreasing, and the demand for slaughter is increasing. With the start of school, the demand is expected to increase, and prices are expected to rise slightly. [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is tight due to weather conditions, demand is relatively stable, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong. [9] Polyester Sector - **PX**: Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and PX supply - demand turns weak. The price follows oil prices. [9] - **PTA**: Cost support is general, supply decreases, and demand improves. The price follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. [9] - **MEG**: Port inventory is decreasing, supply pressure increases, and it is expected to be in a wide - balance state in the medium - term. The price is supported by low inventory. [9] - **PR**: There is no substantial positive driving force in supply - demand, and it is expected to be range - bound. [9] - **PF**: The supply - demand is weak, but the overnight oil price rise may support the cost. It is expected to be volatile. [9]

据美联社1日报道，上述移民包括拥有合法身份者与非法入境者。 6月24日，建筑工人在美国纽约曼哈顿街头工作。新华社记者刘亚南摄 皮尤研究中心8月21日发布的数据显示，美国总统特朗普重返白宫100天内，共签署181项行政令遏制移 民入境、遣返非法移民。相关政策的全面影响虽然尚待分析，但已开始导致美国移民人口减少。 上述分析报告作者之一、皮尤资深研究员斯蒂芬妮·克雷默1日告诉美联社，移民约占美国劳动力总量的 20%，美国约45%的农林渔牧业、30%的建筑业和24%的服务业劳动力都来自移民。 新华社北京9月2日电 美国皮尤研究中心对美国普查局初步数据的分析显示，今年1月至7月底，超过120 万移民从美国劳动力市场流失。专家指出，特朗普政府的移民政策正影响美国劳动力市场。 美国达拉斯联邦储备银行劳工经济学者皮娅·奥雷纽斯指出，移民通常贡献美国至少50%的就业增长。 过去四年边境涌入大批移民的情况"实质性终止"，已对美国创设岗位能力构成"巨大影响"。 皮尤研究中心资深研究员克雷默指出，美国医疗保健业也可能受到移民减少冲击。美国家庭护工中，约 43%是移民。 美国服务行业雇员国际工会代表医疗保健、公共服务和物业服务领域约2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial instruments, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for each category, suggesting trading strategies based on the analysis. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. The oil market is sensitive to geopolitical events. After Q3, due to OPEC+ production increase and weaker demand, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Consider shorting SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel with protective options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and China's ship - fuel sales declined, but domestic refinery production was also low. With crude oil's geopolitical premium and delayed LU supply pressure, both LU and FU strengthened [22]. - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand is increasing seasonally, and inventories are decreasing. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy on BU and SC10 [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the off - season, it shows resilience. With rising import costs and rebounding demand, the spot price is up. The high - basis situation persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the Fed's rate - cut expectation and boosting precious metals. Hold long positions and focus on US employment data [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through key levels. Short - term prices are affected by the Fed's rate cut, consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions and pay attention to call - option premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly oscillating. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low. It will test the resistance at 21000 yuan in the short - term [5]. - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, and supply surplus is emerging. The price is weak but may not fall deeply below the high - cost capacity. Watch the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance will reduce output, and low inventory will drive a short - term rebound. However, the mid - term outlook is bearish, and consider shorting at 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, nickel prices rebounded. With inventory declines, the short - term market is oscillating instead of bearish [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, but watch inventory and capital changes. Hold short - term long positions above 27.1 million [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price declined, and the market was quiet. Inventory changes were mixed. The market is oscillating [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot price rose, but actual trading needs attention. The PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply surplus will intensify in September, and the price may fall after the short - term rally. Watch the support at 8300 yuan/ton [14]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded. Rebar demand and production increased, while hot - rolled coil's decreased. Inventory is rising. The market is under pressure, and the decline may slow down. Watch the demand improvement and production restrictions [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight iron ore price rebounded. Global shipments increased, and domestic arrivals also rose. Demand may decline due to the parade. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated widely. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and is highly volatile [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the price oscillated widely. Production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is under short - term pressure and volatile [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices may have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is rising, and demand is fair. Inventory is slightly decreasing [20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. The spot price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The market is expected to oscillate and be affected by other alliances' plans [21]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The futures price oscillated. Daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is rising. However, with downstream demand expected to increase, the market outlook is optimistic [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The market may improve in Q3. Watch downstream demand and oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene cannot support styrene effectively. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene production inventory is controllable, but downstream acceptance is limited. Polyethylene demand is mixed, and polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. It may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is supported by demand but may face supply pressure later, with a wide - range oscillation expected [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand situation has limited improvement. Watch device operations, oil prices, and polyester load [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and demand was stable but weakening. Watch new capacity and policy changes [32]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and it may be bullish in the medium - term if demand improves. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the soybean meal market may oscillate in the short - term. It may be bullish in the medium - to long - term, but pay attention to supply in Q1 next year [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded after a short - term decline. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term, but manage risks [38]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The price rebounded as short - positions were reduced. Policy auctions increased supply, and new beans will be on the market soon. Watch the new - bean price [39]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak. Feed companies may build inventory at 2150 yuan/ton. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, the price may be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Pig**: Spot prices were mixed, and futures prices were weak. Supply may increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. Prices may face downward pressure [41]. - **Egg**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices rebounded. The industry is in capacity reduction, and consider long - positions in far - term contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell due to better weather. Chinese cotton may oscillate, with support below and limited upside in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - **Sugar**: US sugar may face pressure, and the domestic market has limited upside. The price is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Apple**: The price oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples had high prices, but supply may be stable. Short - term price may rise, but be cautious in the long - term [45]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. Supply may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see for now [46]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: The stock market oscillated, and futures contracts showed different trends. There are short - term macro uncertainties. Increase allocation in technology - growth sectors and also consider consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillated flat. US employment data and Fed's stance affect the market. Consider curve - steepening strategies in short - term hedging [49].

人民币汇率：英镑暴跌 【行情回顾】上前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1476，较上一交易日跌 101 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1390。人民币对美元中间价报 7.1089，较上一交易日调贬 17 个 基点。 【重要资讯】1）市场对英国财政状况的忧虑等因素叠加，英国 30 年期国债收益率升至 1998 年以来的最高水平，英镑出现大幅下跌。2）特朗普：周三将就关税裁决召开紧急会 议。最快将于周三向最高法院提出上诉，若关税的上诉被驳回，将不得不撤回关税。如果 关税裁决不利，将不得不退还数万亿美元。将督促最高法院加快裁决。3）美国 8 月 ISM 制造业指数从 7 月的 48 微升至 48.7，低于市场预期的 49，连续六个月低于荣枯线。新订 单指数升至 51.4，自今年年初以来首次扩张。但产出指数下滑 3.6 点至 47.8，重新跌入收 缩区间。 【核心逻辑】前期我们谈到当前美元兑人民币即期汇率的核心矛盾，并非方向选择层面， 而是时间维度下的节奏把控问题，关键变量在于央行对于人民币相对于美元的升值启动的 具体时点与推进过程中的速度把控。目前来看，美元兑人民币中间价暂时稳定在 7.10 附近， 那 ...

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：黄金再创历史新高 黄金期货价格强势向上突破，伦敦现货黄金突破 3500 美元/盎司关口，再创历史 新高。COMEX 黄金期货收涨 1.51%报 3599.5 美元/盎司，盘中突破 3600 美元，再 创历史新高；COMEX 白银期货收涨 0.01%报 41.73 美元/盎司。多家机构预测，在 横盘 4 个月之后，贵金属有望开启新一轮上涨趋势。摩根士丹利已经将黄金年底 目标价设定为 3800 美元/盎司。截至 9 月 1 日，A 股两融余额达到 22969.91 亿 元，正式突破 2015 年 6 月 18 日创下的 22730.35 亿元的历史峰值。自 6 月 23 日起，两融余额已连续 11 周保持正增长，累计增加 4845.1 亿元，区间增幅超过 26%。8 月 25 日~29 日当周，两融余额增长 1062.81 亿元，为今年以来增长金额 最高的一周。 重点品种：贵金属，股指，铜 贵金属：金银强势走强，黄金呈现收敛突破。特朗普试图解雇美联储理事，挑战 美联储独立性的行为令市场感到不安。美国地质勘探局（USGS）提议将白银等六 种矿产纳 ...

文字早评 2025/09/03 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、两部门明确划转充实社保基金国有股权及现金收益运作管理的相关税收政策; 2、机器人：马斯克表示，Optimus 机器人有望在未来几年内实现大规模应用，并成为公司核心业务之一； 3、宇树科技宣布将在四季度提交 IPO 申请； 4、美国 10 年期国债收益率涨 5 个基点至 4.28%，30 年期国债收益率涨 4 个基点至 4.97%。英国 30 年期 国债收益率涨 5 个基点至 5.69%，为 1998 年以来最高水平。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.21%/-0.33%/-0.65%/-1.15%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.94%/-1.59%/-3.17%/-5.22%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.85%/-1.53%/-3.51%/-5.92%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.00%/-0.06%/-0.07%/-0.06%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后，市场在短期可能会出 ...