1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil futures continue to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the impact on Russian crude oil exports have led to a tight supply situation. Although the short - term sanctions relief has slightly eased the tightness, the key lies in whether the strait can be unsealed. Investors should view oil prices with an oscillatory mindset [1]. - Chemical product prices have been oscillating recently. The cost of energy is the anchor for chemicals. In the context of reduced supply in oil - chemical industries, processing fees have been compressed. There is an expectation of valuation repair in the future. If the geopolitical situation eases, the decline in upstream energy prices may be greater than that of chemicals; if it persists, chemicals may experience a supplementary increase [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical sector continues to be in an oscillatory pattern, awaiting the clarity of the geopolitical situation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a weakening of oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical outlook. The current crude oil market faces a large supply gap, and the potential release of floating storage in Iran and Russia is relatively limited. The pressure on Persian Gulf countries to cut production remains. Future expectation deviations mainly come from the progress of the US - Iran conflict, the passage of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on energy facilities. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Supply shortages persist, and the fluctuation of geopolitical expectations intensifies, so oil prices are expected to oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The sharp decline in crude oil has driven down the asphalt futures price. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core influence on oil prices. The market's concern about the resumption of US - Iran negotiations has led to a decline in asphalt futures prices. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and there is an expectation of a significant decline in refinery operations. The reduction in asphalt production by various groups may drive up the asphalt - fuel oil spread. The supply of asphalt is expected to further decline, while the demand side has a large inventory accumulation pressure. Currently, the asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core driver of oil prices. The market's concern about the resumption of US - Iran negotiations has led to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil mean that the tense situation in Iran affects not only the export of Iranian fuel oil and Middle - East fuel oil but also the supply of Middle - East natural gas. However, the Singapore fuel oil cracking spread has fallen from a record high, indicating that the refinery feed demand and power - generation demand may be suppressed by high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The expected increase in Venezuela's oil production exerts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen from a high level following crude oil, and the market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main - product attributes, and its valuation has been significantly repaired compared to crude oil and asphalt during the oil - price increase. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The low - sulfur fuel oil - asphalt spread has returned to a high level, and the valuation is in a moderately high state. The high profit is expected to drive an increase in low - sulfur fuel oil production. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green - fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current valuation is relatively low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: The cost pressure on downstream polyester factories remains significant. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the end of the US - Iran war and the reopening of the strait has led to a significant correction in international oil prices, and downstream chemicals are expected to be more affected by cost. Fundamentally, the reduction in the operation of domestic and foreign PX plants affects the future supply expectation of PX. Although the polyester sales volume has increased after the sharp decline in oil prices, the current PX/PTA prices are still at a high level, and the cost pressure forces the continuous increase in the expectation of polyester production reduction. The negative feedback on the demand side suppresses the PX price and profit. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. In the short - term, the PX price is guided by cost, with strong support at the bottom. The logic of buying at low prices in the medium - term remains. The positive spread between PX05 - 09 months should be reduced when it is high, and the PXN is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The decline in cost has led to an increase in polyester sales volume. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price has fallen from a high level, and the PX price has followed suit. Although the decline in cost has driven an increase in downstream polyester sales volume, the current high cost still exerts great pressure on polyester factories. The short - term spot inventory is still relatively loose, and the basis is weakly sorted. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is expected that PTA will maintain a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short - term. The positive spread between TA05 - 09 months should be reduced when it is high. The short - term volatility increases, and it is not recommended to try to catch the top in the short - term [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil and commodity sentiment dominate the fluctuation, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The current price of pure benzene is mainly dominated by the geopolitical situation, with strong repeatability of disturbances. On the energy side, the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a tight supply of crude - oil spot and pushed up oil prices. The supply of Asian naphtha is tightening, which may affect the operation of domestic and foreign cracking plants. On the supply side, some refineries have reduced their operations. On the demand side, the downstream profit is acceptable, and there is no negative - feedback pressure. The value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with an upward trend. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the production of domestic and foreign refineries may be reduced, and the de - stocking of pure benzene is advanced [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitics brings positive factors to styrene supply and demand, and styrene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The styrene price is still dominated by the geopolitical situation, with strong repeatability of disturbances. On the supply side, some plants are under maintenance or have postponed maintenance, and some long - stopped plants are restarting. On the demand side, the overall downstream profit has declined, and the support for the price has weakened. The ethylene price is strong, squeezing the styrene profit, and some factories may reduce production or conduct maintenance in the future. There is an expectation of new exports of styrene. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with an upward trend. Affected by the geopolitical situation, domestic and foreign production may be reduced, and export demand may increase [15]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to disturb market sentiment, and ethylene glycol maintains a high - level consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The high - level correction of international oil prices has significantly weakened the support for chemicals. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main ports will drop to a low level in early April. With exports and regional supply adjustments, the port inventory will be rapidly reduced. The market will continue to oscillate widely when the import supply of ethylene glycol cannot be effectively realized. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the medium - term, and to maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude in the short - term. Pay attention to reducing the EG05 - 09 spread when it is high [17]. 3.1.10 Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The polyester staple - fiber market is highly polarized. Factories are holding up prices, while downstream buyers are waiting and watching. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price fluctuates widely, and the market sentiment strongly games around the geopolitical situation. The prices of polyester raw materials fluctuate in line with the cost. Fundamentally, the supply of polyester staple fiber continues to increase, but the downstream trading is average, and most buyers are waiting and watching. The cost of raw materials held by yarn mills is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the digestion and acceptance ability of the subsequent process. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price of polyester staple fiber follows the upstream, and there is certain support for the processing fee at the bottom. The short - term price volatility is large, and cautious operation is recommended [18]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The cost volatility intensifies, and polyester bottle chips passively follow. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has corrected from a high level, and polyester bottle chips have followed the upstream raw materials to rise and then fall. The overall absolute price change is limited. It is expected that the short - term price trend will still mainly follow the upstream cost. The current supply - demand situation of polyester bottle chips is relatively tight, and the overall fundamentals are relatively good. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee at the bottom is enhanced. The position of going long PR and short TA should be temporarily exited [20]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, 2026, the methanol futures price oscillated weakly. The inland market continued to be in a relatively strong oscillatory state, but the overall procurement intensity of downstream in northern Shandong was average. The inventory of methanol production enterprises and ports has decreased. The overseas situation regarding the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The situation in Iran is full of uncertainties, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium, which is difficult to disappear in the short - term. The price has room to rise but is restricted by the downstream's resistance to high prices and weak demand. - **Risk Factors**: Upward risk: A sharp increase in coal prices, favorable macro - policies, and supply - side disturbances; Downward risk: Downstream negative feedback [23]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Urea oscillates and consolidates under the game between long and short positions. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, 2026, urea oscillated weakly. The supply side maintains a high - level daily production, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand side has a weakening agricultural demand and insufficient industrial demand. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the spot price is suppressed by the policy - guided price. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The current fundamentals of urea are relatively stable. The supply remains at a high level, and the agricultural demand support is slightly loosened while the industrial demand is moderately recovering. The sustainability of the futures - price increase driven by market sentiment needs to be considered. - **Risk Factors**: Upward risk: A sharp increase in coal prices, favorable macro - factors, and unexpected demand; Downward risk: A sharp decline in coal prices, policy - control risks, and unexpected demand [25]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of geopolitical cooling disturbs the market, and LLDPE should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, the LLDPE futures price fell back, and the market game was intense. The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical outlook. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, the import of LLDPE may decrease. The energy - chemical sentiment is still volatile in the short - term, and the refinery operation rate has declined, which still supports the near - term contracts. The spot price fluctuates, and the downstream trading is average. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market game is intense under geopolitical disturbances, and the downstream trading is average. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: A decline in oil prices and a weakening of geopolitical disturbances; Bearish risk: An increase in oil prices and a deterioration of the geopolitical situation [29]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of geopolitical relaxation disturbs the market, and PP prices fall. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, the PP futures price fell. The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical outlook. The direct impact on the PP import is limited. The oil - based and PDH profits of PP refineries are still under pressure, which supports the price, while the coal - based profit has been significantly repaired. The overall operation rate is at a low level, and the spot trading is average. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The spot trading is average, and the market has a fierce long - short game under the disturbance of geopolitical news. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: A decline in oil prices and a weakening of geopolitical disturbances; Bearish risk: An increase in oil prices and a deterioration of the geopolitical situation [30]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations disturb the market, and PL prices fall. - **Main Logic**: On March 24, the PL futures price fell. The reduction in supply has a significant boosting effect, and enterprises' quotations remain firm. Downstream factories purchase as needed, and the actual - order trading is relatively scattered. However, some auctions have a small premium, pushing up the trading center. The short - term powder - material profit is compressed, and the acceptance of downstream factories is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The operation rate has declined, but the downstream powder - material profit is still under pressure. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: A decline in oil prices and a weakening of geopolitical disturbances; Bearish risk: An increase in oil prices and a deterioration of the geopolitical situation [31]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The impact is mainly from sentiment, and PVC should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market is currently gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment has cooled down. The geopolitical conflict has not been substantially alleviated, and there are still expectations of cost support and supply disturbances in the energy - chemical sector. At the micro level, both domestic and foreign production has been reduced, and the PVC inventory has been reduced. The overall supply is decreasing, the downstream operation rate has improved, the enthusiasm for chasing price increases is not high, the overseas price has soared, and the export signing is average this week. The cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and enterprises are in a loss state. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market is gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the sentiment in the chemical sector has cooled down. If the geopolitical situation is not substantially alleviated, there is still a risk of chlorine - alkali production reduction, and the market should be cautiously optimistic. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: Geopolitical cooling and less - than - expected PVC de - stocking; Bearish risk: Geopolitical heating up and an increase in PVC exports [33]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical sentiment has declined, and caustic soda should be treated with caution. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market is currently gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment has cooled down. The geopolitical conflict has not been substantially alleviated, and there are still expectations of cost support and supply disturbances in the energy - chemical sector. At the micro level, both domestic and foreign production has been reduced, the caustic - soda export has improved, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. The alumina marginal - device profit is poor, and production reduction has been realized. The demand for caustic soda has been marginally boosted. The inventory of large alumina factories in Shandong has been reduced. The enthusiasm for chasing price increases of 32% caustic soda is average. The export orders continue, and the price of 50% caustic soda has been raised. The overall supply is decreasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market is gaming the US - Iran peace talks, and the sentiment in the chemical sector has cooled down. If the geopolitical situation is not substantially alleviated, there is still a risk of chlorine - alkali production reduction, and the market should be cautiously optimistic. - **Risk Factors**: Bullish risk: Geopolitical cooling and weak spot market; Bearish risk: Geopolitical heating up and supply reduction [

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, with a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. - For polyethylene, wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogues Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 66.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.20%, at 739.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 350.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.09%, at 4590.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 520.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.93%, at 5301.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (96.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3139 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 43 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: It has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, and Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton; others remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 24 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 43 yuan/ton, reported at 1884 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: With a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene rubber rose sharply, while stock - market and economy - sensitive commodities fell. The overall market changed rapidly. The reasons for the rise were macro - bullish expectations and seasonal expectations, while the reasons for the fall were weak demand. As of March 19, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still suspended. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 tons to 69.21 tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15250 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+10) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+5) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 17500 (+2000) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 17900 (+1700) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16300 (+1200) yuan. The Asian butadiene operating rate decreased, and supply decreased, with butadiene expected to be strong [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 398 yuan, reported at 5853 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5860 (-160) yuan/ton, the basis was 7 (+238) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 87 (-51) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2735 (+85) yuan/ton, semi - coke medium - sized material price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (+25) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda spot was 726 (+18) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene active contract closing price was 8501 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 134 yuan/ton, an increase of 364 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton; the styrene active contract closing price was 10242 yuan/ton, a decrease of 828 yuan/ton; the basis was 858 yuan/ton, an increase of 1628 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 202.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 286.4 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.25 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS operating rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS operating rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS operating rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 605 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 580 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 56.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 tons; the trader inventory was 5.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 182 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 9114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 679 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was 136 yuan/ton, an increase of 654 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 59.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 tons; the trader inventory was 19.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 tons; the port inventory was 7.19 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 196 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 74 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 334 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 165 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 682 yuan, reported at 9708 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 40 (-74) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The restart of Daxie was postponed, Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped production, and the Kuwaiti overseas device stopped production. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 31.1 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 113 US dollars (+32), South Korea's PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 485 US dollars (+110) [26]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 440 yuan, reported at 6694 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 (-78) yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 326 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 455 yuan, reported at 5119 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 82 (-68) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%, among which the syngas - made was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - made load was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. One line of Zhongkun was under maintenance; in the oil - chemical sector, Fulei and Hainan Refining and Chemical reduced their loads, while Zhejiang Petrochemical and Satellite increased their loads. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 tons, and the East China departure on March 23 was 1.12 tons. The port inventory was 103.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - made profit was - 3074 yuan, the domestic ethylene - made profit was - 2434 yuan, and the coal - made profit was 1310 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam - coal price rebounded to 640 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly closing up. The closing price rose 0.37% to CNY 16,225/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount widened to CNY 10/ton. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, the supply of Shanghai rubber is expected to increase, and it is predicted that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a weak - oscillating trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in shock, and significantly closing down. The futures price reached a maximum of CNY 3,273/ton and a minimum of CNY 3,104/ton, closing down 2.97% to CNY 3,139/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread premium narrowed to CNY 200/ton. Affected by the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks, the upward momentum of methanol weakened, and it is expected that the methanol futures may maintain a high - level oscillating consolidation trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2605 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakly correcting, and significantly falling. The futures price reached a maximum of CNY 799.0/barrel and a minimum of CNY 715.0/barrel, closing down 8.20% to CNY 739.1/barrel. Due to the short - term signal from Trump in the US to negotiate peace with Iran, the geopolitical sentiment has cooled down. However, Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the US and Iran are attacking each other, so geopolitical risks still exist. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price may maintain a high - level oscillating consolidation trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons or 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%, and the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points. As of March 20, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points. In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. From January to February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8%. Although automobile sales declined in the first two months due to multiple factors, exports maintained high growth, with a year - on - year increase of 52.4% in February. In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of March 20, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.66%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.05%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.25%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.99%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0749 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 61,000 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 1,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 221,200 tons compared with 1.8537 million tons in the same period last year. As of the week of March 20, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 33.97%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.30%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 10.13%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 88.30%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.39%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 57.20%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.11%. As of the week of March 20, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.26%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3.82 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 1.61%. As of March 20, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - CNY 278/ton, a week - on - week significant decline of CNY 466/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of CNY 169/ton. As of the week of March 20, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 826,700 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 53,900 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 148,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 137,000 tons. As of the week of March 19, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 485,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 37,700 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 145,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 140,000 tons compared with 345,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of March 13, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a week - on - week slight increase of 1, and a decrease of 75 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.668 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 10,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year slight increase of 95,000 barrels/day, remaining at a historical high. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 449.3 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 6.156 million barrels and a year - on - year slight increase of 12.291 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 27.524 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 944,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.442 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 91.4%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.5 percentage points. As of March 17, 2026, the average net non - commercial long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 218,688 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 9,327 contracts and a significant increase of 79,579 contracts or 57.21% compared with the February average of 139,109 contracts. On the other hand, as of March 17, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was maintained at 328,704 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 41,736 contracts and a significant increase of 167,310 contracts or 103.67% compared with the February average of 161,394 contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | CNY 16,100/ton | + CNY 100/ton | CNY 16,225/ton | + CNY 80/ton | - CNY 125/ton | + CNY 20/ton | | Methanol | CNY 3,120/ton | - CNY 235/ton | CNY 3,139/ton | - CNY 212/ton | - CNY 19/ton | - CNY 23/ton | | Crude Oil | CNY 778.9/barrel | + CNY 34.4/barrel | CNY 739.1/barrel | - CNY 95.5/barrel | + CNY 39.8/barrel | + CNY 129.9/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis charts, month - to - month spread charts, inventory charts, operating rate charts, and net position holding change charts. The data sources for these charts are Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The core pricing lines of the global market in 2026 are as follows: Overseas, the "Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)" balance between the US and Iran restricts the escalation of the conflict, but the secondary inflation risk from oil prices is reversing the global liquidity expectations, and the Fed's policy path is becoming more divergent. Domestically, Chinese assets have a triple safety premium, but the A-share market is still in a risk release stage. The core investment strategy in 2026 is "defense and counterattack" [2]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: News drives the market. Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The situation in the US - Iran conflict is complex, with Trump claiming progress in negotiations while Iran denying it [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Trump's claim of progress in US - Iran dialogue led to a drop in the US dollar index, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. Short - term export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [3]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell due to liquidity shocks and geopolitical uncertainties. With the easing signal of the Middle East situation, the stock index may rebound, but the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the sharp fall of the A - share market, the bond market may rebound. It is recommended to use grid operations, sell high - position long orders in a timely manner, and gradually build long positions if the price continues to fall [6]. - **Container Shipping (Europe Line)**: The futures market is in a high - level volatile state, with a game between geopolitical emotions and the off - season fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [7][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. In the medium and long term, the demand for lithium carbonate in downstream industries still has a strong support [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: It is affected by the callback cycle of the non - ferrous metal sector. In the long run, the demand for these two products will improve as the photovoltaic industry develops [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, the copper price rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure when the price rebounds. If it fails to break through with heavy volume, the market may be volatile [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It was affected by systematic risks and rebounded slightly at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term due to inventory and macro factors [20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed certain resilience. The supply of sulfur in the nickel industry chain is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is a game between supply and macro - level factors [21][22]. - **Tin**: It followed the sector down and rebounded at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term and the long - term center of gravity may move upward [23]. - **Lead**: It oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation under the pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [24]. Oils and Fats & Feed - **Oilseeds**: The relaxation of Brazil's quarantine process affected the market. It is recommended to enter the market for reverse arbitrage between monthly spreads [25][26]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils fluctuated with crude oil. It is necessary to focus on the biofuel policies of Indonesia and the US this week [27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply due to Trump's remarks. The negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate between $80 - 120 [29][30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was dragged down by weak demand. The market's strength slowed down, but the price decline space is limited [32]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances are the core factors. The supply of asphalt is reduced, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to combination strategies [33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They continued to decline under pressure. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view on precious metals, and pay attention to position control [35][36][37]. - **Gold & Silver**: They had a V - shaped reversal. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view, and they may oscillate at a low level in the short term [38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp spot price rose, and the market is expected to be neutral in the short term. Both pulp and offset paper futures can maintain interval trading [41][42]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market fluctuated due to the changeable attitude of the US. They are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the geopolitical situation is uncertain [43][44]. - **LPG**: The futures price rose sharply due to capital emotions. The market is expected to return to the fundamental logic, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [45][46][47]. - **Methanol**: The price was affected by the Iran - US situation. It is recommended to conduct a 5 - 6 reverse arbitrage and a 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. - **PP & Propylene**: The night - session price fell due to the news of US - Iran negotiations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51][52]. - **Plastic**: The night - session price fell with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54][55]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber fluctuated greatly, and natural rubber rose slightly. Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber is expected to oscillate and stabilize [61][62]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a high supply pressure, and glass is restricted by supply recovery expectations and high intermediate inventories [63][64][65]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost of raw materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upward space. The short - term price may rebound, but the height is limited [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported in the short term but is under pressure in the medium and long term [68][69]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increase is mainly due to market expectations. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and consider short - selling near - month contracts lightly if the price rises to a certain range [70]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and oscillate strongly. The impact of the hurricane on manganese ore production areas needs attention [70][71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [73]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has support below. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation of US cotton [73][74][75]. - **Sugar**: The short - term sugar price may maintain an oscillatory pattern [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The egg price rebounded. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [78]. - **Apples**: The futures market is driven by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern [85][86]. - **Peanuts**: The futures price may fall if the Middle East situation eases. It is recommended to short lightly [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The price may oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply and weak demand [89]. - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and the inventory is consumed. It is recommended to hold long positions in the early stage, reduce long - position holdings, and use interval trading and short - term short - selling strategies [90][91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, with information being mixed and the direction of the geopolitical situation being uncertain. Short - term price fluctuations of various commodities are large, and long - term trends depend on factors such as the smoothness of the global energy transportation route and supply - demand relationships [2][3]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by inventory changes, production capacity adjustments, and downstream demand, while others are more influenced by geopolitical factors and cost factors [4][5][8]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Prices had a sharp drop last night. The short - term price has high two - way fluctuation risks due to various news, and the long - term trend depends on the smoothness of the global energy transportation route [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Expected to follow crude oil, showing a pattern of strong support at the bottom, being easily affected by news, and having wide - range oscillations. The supply side is affected by the Middle East conflict, and there is a rigid demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in summer, while low - sulfur fuel oil has support from the component side [22]. - **Asphalt**: The refinery supply is tightening, and the downstream demand has a chance of improvement. The inventory is at a low level in recent years. The BU direction will follow the oil price [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: There was a V - shaped reversal last night, with high short - term volatility, waiting for further clarity on the war situation [3]. - **Copper**: The price rebounded with Trump's release of news about US - Iran negotiations. Pay attention to the possible agreement on the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in price attracted downstream buying, and the inventory decreased. The expected price range of the 2605 main contract is 90000 - 96500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rebounded slightly. The inventory and the spot market improved as the price dropped. It has support at 23000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The low price stimulated downstream replenishment, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to stop falling between 2.2 - 2.25 ten thousand yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The low price led to increased downstream replenishment, and the inventory decreased. The domestic lead market has a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The rebound momentum is insufficient, and 1.62 ten thousand yuan/ton is the key support [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price weakened, and the market was active. Affected by the strong US dollar, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation. Pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia [10]. - **Tin**: The price rebounded to the MA5 moving average. The supply of raw materials has improved, and the domestic refined tin production is expected to recover in March. The tin market may show a pattern of being strong at home and weak abroad. Pay attention to overseas inventory changes [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It oscillated and rose sharply at the end. The overall inventory reduction speed slowed down, and the inventory structure changed. Technically, it is resistant to decline and should be considered from an oscillatory perspective [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price dropped significantly. The fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view and consider gradually taking profits when approaching the cost range [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price in East China increased slightly. The supply increment is limited, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern [14]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply increased, and the demand improved marginally. The price is expected to oscillate mainly [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose during the day. The inventory changed little, and the procurement intention of traders improved slightly. The price is likely to rise easily and fall difficultly due to energy concerns [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price hit the daily limit. The coal mine production increased, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to rise easily and fall difficultly due to energy concerns [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated at a high level. The impact of the typhoon on manganese ore shipping is small, the port inventory increased slightly, and the demand increased [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated upward. The demand increased, the supply increased slightly, and the price may be driven by manganese silicon [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic device operation rate decreased slightly. The agricultural demand weakened, and the industrial demand increased. Affected by the international price, the domestic market was active. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of policies [24]. - **Methanol**: The import volume at coastal ports was low, the MTO operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The domestic device operation rate increased, and the downstream demand recovered. The market is expected to remain strong [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price followed the oil price to fall. The domestic production load decreased, the downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory decreased. Pay attention to the oil price and geopolitical risks [26]. - **Styrene**: The price was affected by the oil price to fall. The fundamentals are good, the supply - demand has no obvious change, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be strong [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Affected by the oil price, the prices of chemical products fell. The supply of propylene decreased, and there is support for the price. The supply of polyethylene and polypropylene is supported by cost and device maintenance, but the downstream purchasing is cautious [28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The PVC price fell at night. The supply decreased, the downstream demand increased seasonally, and the export market is expected to be good. The caustic soda price fell at night, the inventory decreased, and the supply pressure was relieved. The price is expected to follow the sentiment [29]. - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA fell with the oil price. The industry load decreased, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory increased. The price is affected by the energy and the Middle East situation [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load of ethylene glycol decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the export expectation increased. The price was affected by the oil price to fall at night. Pay attention to the situation development, export performance, and downstream load [31]. - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The short - fiber load decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The bottle - chip benefit improved, and the load increased. The prices are affected by the Middle East situation [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The price fell at night. The inventory reduction continued but slowed down. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [33]. Rubber - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply. The natural rubber supply is about to enter the growth period. The domestic butadiene rubber device operation rate decreased, and the tire operation rate increased. The inventory of natural rubber increased, and the synthetic rubber inventory decreased. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [34]. Agriculture - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the US - Iran war, the international oil price is high, and the global agricultural supply chain is at risk. Pay attention to the US - Iran situation, energy, fertilizers, Trump's visit to China, and climate changes [36]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The oil price fell, and the price difference between vegetable oil and diesel is narrowing, which is beneficial to biodiesel. The new - season crops are at risk of fertilizer supply interruption and cost increase. Pay attention to the Middle East situation and macro - expectations [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price fell at night. The focus of the rapeseed market is on imports. The Canadian rapeseed import has recovered, and the Australian rapeseed policy has not changed. The price is expected to follow the sector [38]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of the main contract decreased. Affected by the oil price and new - season crop risks, pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [39]. - **Corn**: The port price increased slightly, and the domestic price was mixed. The US corn price affects the domestic price, and the wheat auction may impact the corn price. Pay attention to the Northeast grain sales progress, state - reserve auction information, and futures funds [40]. - **Pork**: The spot price continued to fall, the inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year. The futures price is expected to squeeze the premium [41]. - **Egg**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, and the futures price is slightly strong. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [42]. - **Cotton**: The price rose slightly. Affected by the energy price, the price difference between cotton and short - fiber narrowed. The demand in March was good, and the import increased. The domestic market is expected to be bullish [43]. - **Sugar**: The international market focuses on the new - season Brazilian production, which is expected to decline. The domestic market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the weather in the third quarter [44]. - **Apple**: The futures price dropped significantly. The market focus is on the demand side. The demand in the Northwest is good, but the demand for Shandong apples is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Timber**: The price oscillated. The supply is expected to be low, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **Pulp**: The price rose slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The overseas quotation is strong, and the domestic demand is general. It is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share index fell sharply, and the futures index also fell. The external market was mostly up. Pay attention to the key support levels of the A - share index, and consider an equilibrium strategy in the medium - term [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 30 - year contract rose, and the other contracts fell. The war duration is expected to be longer, and the dollar index oscillates around 100. The long - end is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may rebound after over - decline [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "oscillating and bullish" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [1][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The international crude oil futures price remains in a bullish pattern due to the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East caused by the intensified military actions of the US against Iran. However, short - term fluctuations occur as the US may be using a delaying tactic, and the domestic crude oil futures price is expected to stabilize in an oscillatory manner on Tuesday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Rating - The crude oil 2605 contract is rated as "oscillating and bullish" in the short - term, medium - term, intraday, and overall view, with the core logic being the emergence of long - short divergence [1] Price Calculation - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change [2] Strength Definition - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is weakish, a rise between 0 - 1% is bullish, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. The bullish/weakish definition only applies to the intraday view [3][4] Driving Logic - The core driving logic for the crude oil (SC) is the intensified US - Iran conflict and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Trump's peace - talk signal was refuted by Iran, and the US may be using a delaying tactic, leading to a sharp adjustment in international crude oil futures and a significant drop in domestic crude oil futures on Monday night. It's expected to stabilize in an oscillatory manner on Tuesday [5]

从供应毁灭到需求抑制，中东乱局下能化产业何去何从？ 20260322 美以轰炸南帕斯油气田标志战争进入第三阶段，伊朗远程导弹命中迪戈 加西亚基地显示其打击范围突破 2000 公里，战事预计持续至 2026 年 上半年。 中东原油减产规模达 1,000 万桶/日，若停产超 6 个月将导致 200 万桶/ 日的永久性产能损失；IEA 释放 4 亿桶战略储备后的回收机制将支撑中 长期表外需求。 卡塔尔天然气设施遭遇不可抗力，修复期需 3-5 年，导致全球 LPG 供应 出现长周期缺失，扭转 2027 年过剩预期，LPG 价格具备较大向上弹性。 国内原油库存充足可支撑 8-12 个月消耗，原料短缺风险受控；若政府 释放商业储备，主营炼厂开工率有望回升，否则中石化负荷或下滑 15% 以上。 甲醇受伊朗装置因气荒关停影响，4 月前进口量将大幅减少，价格站稳 3,000 元/吨；PVC 因海外乙烯法装置大规模降负，二季度去库预期强化， 维持偏多思路。 煤炭受海外 LNG 中断驱动欧洲需求增长，但国内因低对外依存度及季节 性淡季，价格上行空间受限；纯碱受土耳其低价货源倾销影响，估值偏 高，适合做空配置。 Q&A 摘要 当前中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unclear, and the energy and chemical sectors continue to fluctuate. Crude oil prices fluctuated significantly on Monday. The attitude of the United States is crucial to the price trend of oil and gas, and the key issue is when the Strait can be navigated smoothly. The chemical sector may enter a volatile pattern [2]. - Crude oil leads the chemical sector to continue the volatile pattern, waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil price volatility has intensified. The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices. The geopolitical outlook remains highly uncertain, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances are still strong, and asphalt futures prices are rising. The geopolitical situation is the core factor affecting oil prices. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and the supply of asphalt is expected to further decline. The asphalt futures price is currently undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supported by geopolitical factors, high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong. The geopolitical situation is still tense, and the high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil are still driving up the futures price. However, the cracking spread of Singapore fuel oil has fallen from a record high, indicating that the refinery feed demand and power generation demand may be suppressed by high prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. It follows the high - level fluctuation of crude oil, and the market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment is greatly affected by news, and it fluctuates widely. The US - Iran conflict has not been effectively alleviated, and international oil prices are strong during the Asian session but fluctuate at night. The supply of PX is expected to be affected by the reduction of domestic and foreign PX device loads [12]. - **PTA**: The cost fluctuates widely, and the short - term volatility of PTA has increased. International oil prices fluctuate around the US - Iran peace talks. The cost and market sentiment dominate the price trend in the short term. High inventory is still a real problem [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: It fluctuates strongly. The current price of pure benzene is mainly dominated by the geopolitical situation. The supply of Asian naphtha is tightening, and some refineries have reduced their loads. The downstream profit is acceptable, and the value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil has increased [17]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to the supply and demand of styrene, and it fluctuates strongly. The price of styrene is still dominated by the geopolitical situation. There are changes in the supply side, and the downstream profit has declined. There is an expected increase in exports [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to disturb market sentiment, and ethylene glycol maintains a high - level consolidation. International oil prices fluctuate around the US - Iran peace talks, and the arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port will decrease in early April. The market will continue to fluctuate widely [21]. - **Short - Fiber**: There is intense game between upstream and downstream, and the transaction shows high - low differentiation. International oil prices fluctuate widely, and the supply of short - fiber continues to increase, but the downstream transaction is average, and the short - fiber factory has a slight inventory build - up [22]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost volatility increases, and bottle chips passively follow. The upstream cost remains at a high level, and the price of bottle chips follows the upstream raw materials. The supply and demand of bottle chips are relatively tight [26]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol fluctuates within a range. The methanol futures price has risen significantly. The inland market is strong, and the coastal market is affected by the geopolitical situation. The authenticity of the US - Iran peace talk news is uncertain [29]. - **Urea**: There is a game between long and short positions, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. The supply of urea is sufficient, and the demand is cautious. The spot price is restricted by policy guidance and commercial storage [31]. - **PE**: The market game is intense, and PE should be viewed with caution. The global crude oil market still faces a large gap, and PE imports may decrease. The spot price fluctuates widely, and the downstream transaction is average [33]. - **PP**: Geopolitical news disturbs the market, and PP fluctuates widely. The global crude oil market has a large gap, and the direct impact on PP imports is limited. The refinery profit is under pressure, and the spot price fluctuates widely [34]. - **PL**: Geopolitical news disturbs strongly, and PL fluctuates widely. The supply reduction has a significant boost, but the downstream factory's acceptance is limited [35]. - **PVC**: It is mainly affected by sentiment, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. The market game on the US - Iran peace talks has enlarged commodity fluctuations. The supply is decreasing, the downstream start - up has improved, and the export order is average [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market fluctuates strongly, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. The market game on the US - Iran peace talks has enlarged commodity fluctuations. The supply is decreasing, the export has improved, and it is expected to reduce inventory [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is provided in the report for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on March 23, 2026, shows that the commodity index is 2531.78 (+0.33%), the commodity 20 index is 2810.80 (-0.34%), and the industrial product index is 2583.01 (+1.73%) [280]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on March 23, 2026, shows a daily increase of 4.03%, a 5 - day increase of 9.93%, a 1 - month increase of 68.73%, and a year - to - date increase of 78.69% [282].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The situation of the Iran geopolitical conflict remains unclear, and it is recommended to remain cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The remarks of Trump may help reduce the probability of the tail - risk of further deterioration of the situation, but cannot substantially relieve the Strait blockade. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and it has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. [1] - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The stock index, non - ferrous and precious metal sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk preference. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation is further strengthened, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overseas Macro - The impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on the financial market continues, and major asset prices fluctuate significantly. Trump's 48 - hour ultimatum is still in effect, but he said that the negotiation with Iran is "progressing very smoothly", which may help reduce the probability of the tail - risk of further deterioration of the situation. Crude oil prices significantly corrected on the evening of March 23, and major asset prices rebounded. [1] 3.2 Domestic Macro - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target of the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. It also focuses on rectifying involution - style competition, advancing carbon peak work, and improving the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and the high seasonality of domestic port container throughput and the CRB index confirms the resilience of external demand. [1] 3.3 Asset Views - Be cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The stock index, non - ferrous and precious metal sectors may be dragged down by the deterioration of market risk preference. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation is strengthened, and the global stock market is weak, which may suppress risk assets. [1] 3.4 Market Performance 3.4.1 Financial Market - On March 23, 2026, stock index futures generally declined, with the CSI 300 futures down 3.94%, the SSE 50 futures down 3.83%, the CSI 500 futures down 5.16%, and the CSI 1000 futures down 5.87%. Treasury bond futures mostly declined, with the 2 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.03%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.06%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.09%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.03%. The US dollar index rose 0.33%. [7] 3.4.2 Industry Index - On March 23, 2026, most industries in the CITIC industry index declined. Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, and non - ferrous metals had relatively large declines, while the coal industry rose 0.35%. [8][9] 3.4.3 Overseas Commodities - As of March 20, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 2.66%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.61%, COMEX gold fell 2.47%, and COMEX silver fell 4.78%. [10][11] 3.4.4 Domestic Commodities - On March 23, 2026, shipping's container shipping to Europe line rose 7.61%, precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium generally declined, non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc had different trends, and black building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke generally rose. Energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and methanol also had significant increases. [12][13] 3.5 Short - term Judgment of Each Sector - **Financial**: Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate. [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver may have a corrective rebound after a short - term over - decline and are expected to fluctuate. [4] - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe line is expected to fluctuate weakly. [4] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to fluctuate. [4] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: Most basic metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate, and some varieties such as nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to continue to fluctuate due to the unclear Middle - East geopolitical situation. [5] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are affected by geopolitical conflicts and have large fluctuations, with different trends for different varieties. [5]