Core Insights - Jinan's consumer goods market has shown stable growth in the first half of 2025, with a total retail sales of 2640.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [1][3] - The online consumption demand has significantly increased, with retail sales through public networks reaching 268.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 24.6%, accounting for 26.8% of the total retail sales of above-limit units, an increase of 4.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][3] Consumer Goods Performance - The "old for new" policy has positively impacted sales, with retail sales of home appliances, cultural office supplies, and communication equipment increasing by 6.7%, 40.5%, and 52.9% respectively, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth [3] - The sales of new energy vehicles have also seen rapid growth, with retail sales increasing by 13.6%, surpassing the overall retail sales growth rate by 11.7 percentage points, and accounting for 38.8% of the total retail sales of automotive products, an increase of 5.7 percentage points from the previous year [3]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Zhaoqing City reached 135.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [2] - The primary industry added value was 17.5 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%; the secondary industry added value was 53.6 billion yuan, growing by 4.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 64.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% [2] Agricultural Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors achieved a total output value of 30.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - Specific growth rates included planting (4.2%), forestry (6.5%), animal husbandry (4.8%), fishery (6.4%), and auxiliary activities (10.9%) [2] - Vegetable production reached 1.446 million tons, increasing by 3.1%; live pig output was 1.746 million heads, up by 7.1%; and total aquatic products amounted to 270,400 tons, growing by 4.4% [2] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.5% year-on-year [3] - Manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries both grew by 4.6%, while mining decreased by 19.0% [3] - Notable growth in specific manufacturing sectors included electrical machinery (21.8%), automotive (20.2%), and computer and electronic equipment (15.6%) [3] - Newly established industrial enterprises showed remarkable performance with a 116.9% increase in added value, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall industrial growth [3] - Advanced manufacturing increased by 17.6%, accounting for 39.0% of the industrial added value [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 60.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [4] - Retail sales of goods were 57.3 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%, while catering revenue was 3.52 billion yuan, increasing by 2.0% [4] - Urban retail sales were 48.0 billion yuan, up by 2.8%, and rural retail sales were 12.8 billion yuan, also growing by 2.8% [4] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, with increases of 152.6% and 77.3% respectively [4] - Online retail sales through public networks reached 12.3 billion yuan, growing by 10.9% [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 8.8% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment, however, grew by 10.0%, while construction and industrial investments fell by 1.2% and 11.8% respectively [4] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 39.2%, with commercial housing sales area dropping by 37.9% [5] Financial Sector - By the end of June, the total balance of deposits was 411.4 billion yuan, increasing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the total balance of loans was 361.6 billion yuan, growing by 7.6% [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with food prices down by 0.5% and non-food prices down by 0.8% [5]

Group 1 - Domestic demand is the main driver of economic growth in the first half of the year, contributing 68.8% to economic growth, with a significant increase to 77% in the second quarter [1][3] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, with retail sales of home appliances and cultural office supplies increasing over 25% year-on-year [1][2] - The service consumption growth rate was 4.9% year-on-year, with strong demand in cultural entertainment and tourism sectors [1][3] Group 2 - Capital formation contributed 16.8% to economic growth, with equipment investment increasing by 17.3% and infrastructure investment by 4.6% [2][4] - Investment in high-tech sectors such as aerospace and computer manufacturing grew by 26.3% and 21.5% respectively, indicating a shift towards new economic drivers [2][4] - High-tech service industry investment increased by 8.6%, with information services growing by 37.4% [2][4] Group 3 - The domestic market's size and potential for consumption and investment are highlighted as unique advantages for the economy, with a population of over 1.4 billion and a per capita GDP exceeding $13,000 [3][4] - There is significant potential for growth in service consumption and investment, with a focus on improving income and leisure time for consumers [4][5] - Strategies to enhance service quality and support innovation in consumption scenarios are emphasized to stimulate further growth [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust growth of consumer spending in China, which significantly contributes to GDP growth, with domestic demand accounting for 68.8% of GDP growth in the first half of the year, and final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [1][3] - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to a series of incremental policies that have effectively stimulated the market, showcasing the potential of China's large-scale economy [1][3] - Consumer preferences are shifting from basic needs to quality and experience, as evidenced by the strong sales of home appliances and cultural products, with retail sales in these categories growing by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The emergence of new consumer demands is driving growth in niche markets, with initiatives like the "cool economy" and various local events aimed at enhancing consumer experience [2] - Local governments are actively promoting diverse and personalized consumption, with initiatives such as fashion consumption expansion plans and unique local events to stimulate market dynamics [2] - The government has prioritized boosting consumption and investment efficiency as a key task for 2025, with specific action plans to address barriers to consumer spending [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's retail sector in June 2025, highlighting a slowdown in growth rates across various categories of consumer goods, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and changes in promotional cycles [2][8]. Retail Performance Summary - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 24.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Category-Specific Insights - Supermarket sector saw a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in grain and oil products, but this was a decline of 5.9 percentage points from May [3]. - Beverage sales dropped by 4.4% year-on-year, with a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Daily necessities experienced a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from May [3]. Apparel and Cosmetics - Textile and apparel retail sales grew by 1.9% year-on-year, down 2.1 percentage points from May [4]. - Cosmetic sales fell by 2.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. Jewelry and Electronics - The gold and jewelry sector reported a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, but this was a decline of 15.7 percentage points from May [5]. - Home appliances saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 32.4%, although this represented a decrease of 20.6 percentage points from the previous month [6]. Other Categories - Tobacco and alcohol retail sales decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, down 11.9 percentage points from May [7]. - Communication equipment sales grew by 13.9% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 19.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - Cultural and office supplies saw a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, down 6.1 percentage points from May [7]. Market Dynamics - The slowdown in retail sales growth in June is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and the elongation of promotional cycles, leading to an earlier release of consumer demand [8]. - Essential goods experienced a decline in growth rates, with beverages and tobacco categories showing negative year-on-year growth [8]. - Optional goods, particularly in the gold and jewelry sector, faced demand suppression due to fluctuating gold prices, resulting in a decrease in growth rates [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant recovery and growth of China's consumer market in the first half of the year, driven by effective policy measures and increased domestic demand [1][2][3] - China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5458 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 0.4 percentage point acceleration compared to the first quarter [1] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% of this contribution, indicating that consumption is the main driver of economic growth [1] Group 2 - The "old for new" consumption policy has not only stimulated current consumption but also fostered new concepts such as green and smart consumption, promoting a positive interaction between industrial and consumption upgrades [2] - The Chinese government has been expanding its visa-free "circle" to boost international inbound tourism and consumption, while cities like Beijing and Shanghai are actively developing international consumption centers [2] - New consumer demands are emerging rapidly, with major cities witnessing increased market activity and innovative cultural and sports consumption scenarios being developed in lower-tier cities [2] Group 3 - The consumer market in China is expected to remain active in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption [3] - There is significant room for existing policies to continue supporting consumption and improving livelihoods, with 138 billion yuan in central funds set to be distributed in the latter half of the year to support the "old for new" consumption initiative [3] - The cumulative effect of the "old for new" policy and other consumption-promoting measures is anticipated to enhance market performance, leading to a potential upward trend in consumer activity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is stable and improving, with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience and pressure resistance of the Chinese economy [2][3]. Economic Performance - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2]. - The contribution rate of domestic demand to GDP growth was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [4]. - The first quarter GDP growth was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a slight decrease to 5.2% [2]. Sector Analysis - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry reached 239,050 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.3%; and the tertiary industry added 390,314 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% [2]. - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 24.55 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, and the second quarter growth accelerated to 5.4% [4]. Consumer Trends - Service consumption accounted for an increasing share, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% and goods retail sales by 5.1% [4]. - Upgrading consumption trends were noted, with sports goods retail sales increasing by 22.2% and jewelry retail sales by 11.3% [4]. - New consumption models and trends, such as "self-indulgent consumption" and personalized consumption, are emerging [4]. Future Outlook - The positive consumption trend is expected to continue into the second half of the year, supported by ongoing consumption policies and subsidies [5]. - The expansion of visa-free policies is boosting domestic consumption, with significant increases in foreign visitors during holidays [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the effectiveness of the old-for-new consumption policy in driving retail growth in various categories of household appliances and related products [1] Group 2 - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 30.7% [1] - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies grew by 25.4% [1] - Retail sales of communication equipment rose by 24.1% [1] - Retail sales of furniture items experienced a growth of 22.9% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Policy support is in place, but domestic demand remains weak. The GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is expected to be achieved with relative ease [9][10]. - Fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input, while monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Additional fiscal policies may be launched under special circumstances [2]. - There are three major external disturbances in the second half of the year: tariff negotiations, the OBBB Act, and the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. - The outlook for major asset classes varies. Stocks are expected to have a bottom - line support with small - cap stocks outperforming; bond yields are expected to reach new lows; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate following the US dollar index; and commodities' performance will depend on event and policy rhythms [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Economy: Policy Support, Weak Domestic Demand - **Economic Overall Trend**: The economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. To counter the impact of exports, policies are targeted at consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In the first half, with pre - emptive policy implementation, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed good growth, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, with Q2 expected to be above 5%. In the second half, exports are likely to decline, and the probability of additional policies is low [9][10]. - **Consumption**: The increase in social retail sales is mainly supported by policies. After excluding the impact of the "trade - in" policy, the overall consumption has not improved significantly compared to 2024. Income expectations remain poor, and employment expectations are lower than income expectations. The consumption in Q3 is expected to maintain relatively high - speed growth, while there will be significant downward pressure in Q4 [11][16][17]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market has basically reached the bottom, and the probability of a further sharp decline in the second half is low. However, the driving force for recovery is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to operate at the bottom, with a slight upward trend under optimistic expectations [19][21]. - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure is expected to remain at a high level. The main sources of funds are two - fold policy funds and local government special bonds. In Q3, infrastructure will still have strong support, and it may decline in Q4 but remain at a high level overall. The new policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in September or October [34][35]. - **Exports**: Exports were high in the first half but are likely to decline in the second half due to factors such as over - drawn demand and the downward risk of the US economy [37][38]. - **Manufacturing**: Manufacturing is highly dependent on policy support. With the implementation of the equipment renewal policy, most of the funds have been allocated, and manufacturing is expected to remain at a high level at least in Q3 [40]. 3.2 Policy: Limited Fiscal Policy, Increased Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input. The probability of introducing incremental fiscal policies is low unless there is a significant external shock. Key meetings in the second half of the year need to be monitored [42][43]. - **Monetary Policy**: Monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Based on historical experience and the current high real - interest - rate level, it is reasonable to expect an interest rate cut of 20bp this year [44][46]. 3.3 Three Major External Disturbances in the Second Half of the Year - **Tariff Negotiation Disturbance**: The outcomes of the US tariff negotiations on July 9 and the China - US tariff negotiations on August 12 will basically determine the export trend in the second half of the year [48]. - **OBBB Act Disturbance**: The OBBB Act will have an impact on the US economy and indirectly affect the domestic economy. The Senate version of the bill will increase the US debt, and if temporary measures are made permanent, the debt increase will be even greater. The bill may lead to a steeper yield curve and higher 10 - year US Treasury yields [49][51]. - **Fed Policy Rate Changes**: The first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September or later. The number of expected interest rate cuts within the year may be slightly overestimated considering the US economic resilience and Powell's style [54]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Asset Classes in the Second Half of the Year - **Stocks**: Stocks have a bottom - line support. Although they will face fundamental pressure, the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic monetary policy will provide support. Small - cap stocks are expected to outperform [55]. - **Bonds**: Bond yields are expected to reach new lows. The bond market will be supported by the economic trend, and with lower supply pressure and a high probability of interest rate cuts, bond yields are expected to decline [58]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB will appreciate following the US dollar index, which will help ease the pressure on export enterprises [60]. - **Commodities**: The performance of commodities will depend on event and policy rhythms. External tariff negotiations and domestic policy implementation schedules will affect commodity prices. Gold is expected to strengthen with support from the US debt issue and the approaching Fed interest rate cuts [63][64].

Core Viewpoint - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted China's retail sector in the first half of the year, with May retail data showing unexpected growth, particularly in home appliances [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Sector Performance - In May, China's total retail sales reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, marking the fastest monthly growth rate in 2024 [2]. - Retail sales of home appliances grew by over 50% year-on-year in May, indicating strong consumer demand driven by the trade-in policy [1][2]. - The trade-in policy has been identified as a key driver of consumption growth, with specific categories like home appliances, communication equipment, and furniture showing significant increases of 53.0%, 33.0%, and 25.6% respectively [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The economic outlook for the next few months remains positive, supported by the release of prior export orders and the ongoing impact of the trade-in policy on consumption [6]. - Recommendations for stimulating consumption growth include enhancing wealth and income through policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, as well as reforming social security and welfare systems [2][6]. - The need to create new consumption scenarios is emphasized, with examples like the Jiangsu province's city football league driving local economic activity in tourism, dining, and accommodation [3]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Innovation - China's manufacturing sector has shown significant advantages, with over 30% global market share and rapid advancements in key areas such as shipbuilding and artificial intelligence [4]. - The domestic innovative pharmaceutical industry is experiencing growth due to supportive policies and increased R&D investment, indicating a robust environment for technological advancement [4]. Group 4: International Market Competitiveness - Chinese companies that have survived intense domestic competition are demonstrating strong capabilities in international markets, reflecting their competitive strength [5].