本报记者 刘萌 12月19日，商务部消费促进司负责人谈2025年11月我国消费市场情况时表示，11月份，社会消费品零售总额4.39万亿元， 同比（下同）增长1.3%。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额45.6万亿元，增长4.0%，累计增速快于去年同期0.5个百分点。 三是新型消费需求旺盛。1-11月份，网络零售额增长9.1%，其中实物商品网上零售额增长5.7%。据商务部商务大数据，11 月份，重点监测平台运动相机、具身智能机器人、一级能效电视销量增长均超20%。据汽车流通协会数据，11月份新能源乘用 车渗透率达59.3%。 四是乡村消费快于城镇。县域商业体系不断健全，下沉市场消费潜力加速释放。1-11月份，乡村消费品零售额增长4.4%， 增速比城镇快0.5个百分点；11月份，乡村消费品零售额增长2.8%，增速比城镇快1.8个百分点。 （编辑 黄力） 一是商品消费保持平稳。11月份，商品零售额增长1.0%。基本生活类商品销售平稳增长，其中限额以上单位粮油食品、服 装鞋帽零售额分别增长6.1%和3.5%。部分升级类商品销售较快增长，其中金银珠宝、化妆品零售额分别增长8.5%和6.1%。以 旧换新相关品类快速增长，其 ...

国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，今年1至11月份，我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，累计增速好 于去年。核心数据稳定增长、结构持续优化升级、新动能加快培育……前11个月，我国消费市场有看点 有新意。 看总量。在去年同期基数逐步抬高的背景下，今年社会消费品零售总额始终保持平稳增长态势。1至11 月份，社会消费品零售总额增长4%，增速比上年同期高0.5个百分点；扣除汽车类商品后，消费品零售 额增长4.6%，增速比上年同期高0.9个百分点。 看结构。服务消费成为引领增长的核心动力。1至11月，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，且占比持续提升。 文化和数字消费供给持续优化，文体休闲服务类零售额延续两位数增长，全国电影票房收入同比增长 19.5%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖分析，居民精神文化需求不断扩大，文化体育等消费新场景新供 给加快培育，冰雪运动等体育活动普及发展，促进了相关服务零售较快增长。 看需求。在消费需求升级的带动下，美容化妆、金银饰品等相关商品销售增势较好。11月份限额以上单 位化妆品类、金银珠宝类商品零售额同比分别增长6.1%、8.5%。此外，银发群体消费需求增加，带动 养老服务需求多元增长。1至11月份，老 ...

一是消费需求扩大。消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，带动家电、通讯等相关商品销售增长加快，促进了 商品消费需求扩大。1至11月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、通讯器材类 商品零售额同比分别增长14.8%、18.2%和20.9%。提振消费专项行动深入实施，文化体育、网络娱乐等 服务性消费需求持续释放。1至11月份，服务零售额中，文体休闲服务类、通讯信息服务类零售额同比 增速均超过10%。 二是重点投资增加。大规模设备更新政策效应显现，企业推动设备更新、加快改造升级意愿增强，设备 投资较快增长，促进了投资扩大，也有利于企业竞争力提升。1至11月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增 长12.2%，拉动全部投资增长1.8个百分点。"两重"建设持续推进，重点领域相关投资继续扩大。1至11 月份，电力热力生产和供应业投资增长12.5%，互联网和相关服务、水上运输业投资分别增长20.7%和 8.9%。 三是生产带动有力。"两重""两新"等政策措施深入实施，促进了市场需求释放，拉动相关产品生产，带 动工业生产增长，也支持了产业升级。1至11月份，规模以上装备制造业增加值同比增长9.3%，占全部 规模以上工业的比重达到 ...

Core Insights - The consumer market in China maintained a steady growth trend in October, with continuous release of consumption potential [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - In October, retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in sales of trade-in related products [1] - Retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture for enterprises above designated size grew by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] - Demand for upgraded consumer goods remained strong, with retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, retail sales of services grew by 5.3%, driven by holiday travel demand [1] - Retail sales in tourism consulting and leasing services, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services all maintained a growth rate of over 10% [1] - In October, restaurant income increased by 3.8% [1] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices increased by over 20%, while sales of smart wearable devices grew by approximately 4% [1] - Sales of certain first-level energy-efficient home appliances increased by over 10% [1] - E-commerce played a positive role in boosting consumption, with online service consumption growing by 21% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The economy is undergoing a transformation from traditional real estate and infrastructure to emerging industries, high - end manufacturing, and service consumption [1][7]. - For the bond market, due to the diminishing effect of traditional drivers (real estate and infrastructure), the potential economic growth rate is declining. New drivers are still being cultivated and cannot fully offset the decline of traditional sectors. In the short term, with inflation under control and the central bank's supportive monetary policy, the risk of significant bond market adjustment is relatively controllable, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate around 1.8% [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 10 - month Economic Data: Total Slowdown and Kinetic Energy Switch - **Economic Growth Characteristics**: In October 2025, the macro - economy featured "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The endogenous economic growth momentum needs to be restored [1][7]. - **Structural Highlights**: - **Industrial Upgrade**: From January to October 2025, the added value of above - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.5% year - on - year, accounting for 36.1% of above - scale industries and contributing 58.7% to the growth of above - scale industrial added value [1][7]. - **High - tech Investment**: Investment in high - tech fields such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence expanded rapidly. From January to October, investment in the aviation, spacecraft, and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.7% year - on - year, and investment in the information service industry increased by 32.7%. After excluding real estate development investment, national fixed - asset investment and private investment turned positive, with growth rates of 1.7% and 0.2% respectively [1][8]. - **New Market Demand**: From January to October, online retail sales increased by 9.6% year - on - year. Upgraded consumer goods sold well, and service retail sales increased by 5.3%. Retail sales of cultural, sports, and leisure services, as well as tourism consulting and leasing services, maintained double - digit growth [1][8]. 3.2 Industrial Production Remained Stable, with High - end Manufacturing Still Prominent - **Overall Industrial Production**: In October, the added value of above - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a 1.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative growth was 6.1%. The service production index in October increased by 4.6% year - on - year, a 1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [10]. - **Industry - Specific Performance**: In October, the year - on - year growth rates of the automobile and transportation equipment industries rebounded significantly compared to the previous month, while those of the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous metal processing industries declined significantly [12]. - **New Kinetic Energy**: The upgrading of the manufacturing industry continued to drive industrial resilience. In October, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and that of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 7.2%, 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points faster than the overall above - scale industrial added value respectively. The output of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots increased rapidly [13]. 3.3 Consumption Recovery was Moderate, with Service Consumption Better than Goods - **Overall Consumption**: In October, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed slightly to 2.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Among them, commodity retail increased by 2.8% year - on - year, a 0.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, while catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, a 2.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [16]. - **Consumption Structure**: Upgraded consumption performed well, and service consumption maintained resilience. In October, rural consumption grew by 4.1%, faster than urban consumption. However, the transmission of consumption policies to end - demand needs further observation due to the constraints of income expectations and housing price wealth effects on consumption willingness [21][23]. 3.4 Investment Growth Continued to Decline, with Manufacturing Standing Out - **Overall Investment**: From January to October, fixed - asset investment increased by - 1.7% year - on - year, a 1.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The investment structure showed "stable manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag", with only manufacturing investment maintaining positive growth [24]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to October, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year. Equipment purchase investment remained resilient, with a 13% year - on - year increase from January to October, 14.7 percentage points higher than total investment. However, under the guidance of the "anti - involution" policy, the investment motivation of some enterprises may decline in the short term [26]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, with a further decline in growth. Traditional infrastructure construction slowed down, and the construction industry's prosperity level declined. In addition, the issuance of new special bonds in October was slow, and the capital availability of some projects might not meet expectations [27]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 14.7%, with an increasing negative impact. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". Follow - up real estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented [28].

Core Insights - China's final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters, an increase of 9.0 percentage points compared to the previous year, reinforcing its role as the "main engine" of economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - The government has implemented a series of macro policies to stimulate consumption, including the allocation of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods [2] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to significant retail growth in categories such as home appliances and communication devices, with retail sales in these sectors maintaining double-digit growth [2][3] - The domestic travel during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays reached 888 million trips, showcasing the resilience and vitality of China's consumer market [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - Service consumption, particularly in leisure and travel, has shown strong performance, indicating a high enthusiasm for offline activities among consumers [3] - New consumption models, such as online shopping, have also seen substantial growth, highlighting their importance in supporting overall market expansion [3] - Upgraded consumer goods, including communication devices and home appliances, have experienced over 20% growth, reflecting a steady progression in consumer upgrading [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The government aims to enhance internal growth momentum by implementing targeted measures to boost consumption, stabilize employment, and increase income channels for residents [4][5] - Suggestions include issuing consumption vouchers and organizing promotional activities to further stimulate consumer spending [5] - Long-term strategies should focus on increasing income levels for low- and middle-income groups and improving the social security system to alleviate concerns related to consumption [5]

Economic Performance - The national economy of China continues to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies to enhance flexibility and predictability [1] - The industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with notable growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, which grew by 8.1% and 9.3% respectively [1] New Growth Drivers - High-tech product output is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in 3D printing equipment and new energy vehicles, indicating the effectiveness of new growth drivers [2] - The production of industrial robots has also been growing steadily, with civilian drone production increasing by over 50% year-on-year from January to August [2] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in August showed double-digit growth in categories such as home appliances, furniture, and cultural office supplies, reflecting the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [2] - Service retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales, with strong growth in tourism, transportation, and leisure services [3] Investment Dynamics - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 14.4% year-on-year from January to August, significantly contributing to fixed asset investment growth [3] - High-tech industry investment remains robust, with double-digit growth in sectors such as information services and aerospace equipment manufacturing [3] Policy Recommendations - To maintain stable economic growth, it is essential to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and consider new incremental policies [4] - Active fiscal policies should be intensified to provide immediate support for growth, with a focus on rapid expenditure of fiscal funds [4]

Group 1: Consumer Trends - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [1] - Retail sales of goods grew by 3.6%, while dining revenue increased by 2.1%, indicating a slowdown in retail growth compared to previous months [1] - The demand for upgraded consumer goods has expanded, driven by the "old-for-new" consumption initiative, with significant growth in categories such as furniture (18.6%), home appliances (14.3%), and cultural office supplies (14.2%) [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - Service retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales, indicating a robust service consumption sector [1][4] - The service price index rose by 0.6% in August, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4] - High-quality social services, including tourism and cultural activities, have seen increased demand, particularly during the summer [4] Group 3: Impact of Events on Local Economy - The "Su Chao" event has positively impacted local service consumption in Jiangsu, boosting tourism and hospitality sectors [5] - Despite a vibrant tourism market, the dining sector has experienced slower growth, with dining revenue growth rates of 0.9%, 1.1%, and 2.1% in June, July, and August respectively, which are lower than the first five months of the year [5][6] - Companies are adapting to changes in consumer behavior, such as adjusting menu prices and focusing on family dining options, in response to the evolving market landscape [6] Group 4: Emerging Consumer Products - The demand for sports and wearable smart devices has surged, with significant sales growth reported in categories like running shoes and sports apparel, with some items seeing over 200% year-on-year sales increases [2] - The prices of certain consumer goods, including sports equipment and smart devices, have risen, reflecting increased consumer interest and market dynamics [2] - The application of new technologies such as AI and XR in consumer products is expanding, with notable growth in immersive entertainment and educational applications [3]

Group 1: Overall Economic Performance - The retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, with service retail sales growing by 5.1%, indicating a continuous expansion of market sales [1][3] - In August, the retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging consumers to upgrade their purchases and the sales of related products [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The demand for goods consumption continued to grow, with significant increases in retail sales of home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture, all exceeding 10% year-on-year in August [1][2] - Service consumption showed stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% from January to August, driven by tourism and recreational activities during the summer [2][3] Group 3: New Consumption Patterns - Online retail sales increased by 9.6% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the overall retail sales growth, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.4% [2] - The retail volume of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market grew by over 20% year-on-year in the first eight months [2]

Group 1 - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, highlighting its role as the main driver of economic growth [1] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture saw year-on-year growth of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively, indicating a robust consumer market [1] - Various regions are implementing initiatives to stimulate consumption, such as Beijing's fashion consumption expansion plan and unique activities in Guangxi and Shanxi, which aim to cultivate new market dynamics [1] Group 2 - There are still barriers to fully unleashing consumption potential, particularly for the elderly demographic, who face challenges in accessing new consumption opportunities [2] - Key strategies to boost consumption include enhancing supply quality, optimizing the consumption environment, and increasing residents' income to improve consumer spending willingness [2] - Collaborative efforts from both supply and demand sides are essential to effectively implement policies that will drive consumption and contribute to high-quality economic development [2]