记者从商务部获悉：10月，我国消费市场保持平稳增长态势，消费潜力持续释放。 新型消费较快增长。据商务部商务大数据，10月，重点监测平台智能健康设备销售额增长超两成，智能 穿戴设备销售额增长约4%，部分一级能效家电销售额增长超10%。 1至10月，我国电子商务在提振消费惠民生、促进现代产业体系建设、扩大高水平对外开放等方面发挥 积极作用。智能产品、网络服务、即时电商增长亮眼，网络服务消费增长21%。 （文章来源：人民日报） 商品消费平稳增长。10月，商品零售额增长2.8%，以旧换新相关商品销售保持较快增长，其中限额以 上单位通信器材、文化办公用品、家具零售额分别增长23.2%、13.5%和9.6%。升级类商品消费需求旺 盛，其中金银珠宝、体育娱乐用品、化妆品零售额分别增长37.6%、10.1%和9.6%。 服务消费增势良好。1至10月，服务零售额增长5.3%。受假期出行需求拉动，旅游咨询租赁服务、交通 出行服务、文体休闲服务零售额均保持10%以上较快增长。10月，餐饮收入增长3.8%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The economy is undergoing a transformation from traditional real estate and infrastructure to emerging industries, high - end manufacturing, and service consumption [1][7]. - For the bond market, due to the diminishing effect of traditional drivers (real estate and infrastructure), the potential economic growth rate is declining. New drivers are still being cultivated and cannot fully offset the decline of traditional sectors. In the short term, with inflation under control and the central bank's supportive monetary policy, the risk of significant bond market adjustment is relatively controllable, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate around 1.8% [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 10 - month Economic Data: Total Slowdown and Kinetic Energy Switch - **Economic Growth Characteristics**: In October 2025, the macro - economy featured "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The endogenous economic growth momentum needs to be restored [1][7]. - **Structural Highlights**: - **Industrial Upgrade**: From January to October 2025, the added value of above - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.5% year - on - year, accounting for 36.1% of above - scale industries and contributing 58.7% to the growth of above - scale industrial added value [1][7]. - **High - tech Investment**: Investment in high - tech fields such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence expanded rapidly. From January to October, investment in the aviation, spacecraft, and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.7% year - on - year, and investment in the information service industry increased by 32.7%. After excluding real estate development investment, national fixed - asset investment and private investment turned positive, with growth rates of 1.7% and 0.2% respectively [1][8]. - **New Market Demand**: From January to October, online retail sales increased by 9.6% year - on - year. Upgraded consumer goods sold well, and service retail sales increased by 5.3%. Retail sales of cultural, sports, and leisure services, as well as tourism consulting and leasing services, maintained double - digit growth [1][8]. 3.2 Industrial Production Remained Stable, with High - end Manufacturing Still Prominent - **Overall Industrial Production**: In October, the added value of above - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a 1.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative growth was 6.1%. The service production index in October increased by 4.6% year - on - year, a 1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [10]. - **Industry - Specific Performance**: In October, the year - on - year growth rates of the automobile and transportation equipment industries rebounded significantly compared to the previous month, while those of the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous metal processing industries declined significantly [12]. - **New Kinetic Energy**: The upgrading of the manufacturing industry continued to drive industrial resilience. In October, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and that of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 7.2%, 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points faster than the overall above - scale industrial added value respectively. The output of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots increased rapidly [13]. 3.3 Consumption Recovery was Moderate, with Service Consumption Better than Goods - **Overall Consumption**: In October, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed slightly to 2.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Among them, commodity retail increased by 2.8% year - on - year, a 0.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, while catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, a 2.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [16]. - **Consumption Structure**: Upgraded consumption performed well, and service consumption maintained resilience. In October, rural consumption grew by 4.1%, faster than urban consumption. However, the transmission of consumption policies to end - demand needs further observation due to the constraints of income expectations and housing price wealth effects on consumption willingness [21][23]. 3.4 Investment Growth Continued to Decline, with Manufacturing Standing Out - **Overall Investment**: From January to October, fixed - asset investment increased by - 1.7% year - on - year, a 1.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The investment structure showed "stable manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag", with only manufacturing investment maintaining positive growth [24]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to October, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year. Equipment purchase investment remained resilient, with a 13% year - on - year increase from January to October, 14.7 percentage points higher than total investment. However, under the guidance of the "anti - involution" policy, the investment motivation of some enterprises may decline in the short term [26]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, with a further decline in growth. Traditional infrastructure construction slowed down, and the construction industry's prosperity level declined. In addition, the issuance of new special bonds in October was slow, and the capital availability of some projects might not meet expectations [27]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 14.7%, with an increasing negative impact. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". Follow - up real estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented [28].

Core Insights - China's final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth in the first three quarters, an increase of 9.0 percentage points compared to the previous year, reinforcing its role as the "main engine" of economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - The government has implemented a series of macro policies to stimulate consumption, including the allocation of 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods [2] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to significant retail growth in categories such as home appliances and communication devices, with retail sales in these sectors maintaining double-digit growth [2][3] - The domestic travel during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays reached 888 million trips, showcasing the resilience and vitality of China's consumer market [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - Service consumption, particularly in leisure and travel, has shown strong performance, indicating a high enthusiasm for offline activities among consumers [3] - New consumption models, such as online shopping, have also seen substantial growth, highlighting their importance in supporting overall market expansion [3] - Upgraded consumer goods, including communication devices and home appliances, have experienced over 20% growth, reflecting a steady progression in consumer upgrading [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The government aims to enhance internal growth momentum by implementing targeted measures to boost consumption, stabilize employment, and increase income channels for residents [4][5] - Suggestions include issuing consumption vouchers and organizing promotional activities to further stimulate consumer spending [5] - Long-term strategies should focus on increasing income levels for low- and middle-income groups and improving the social security system to alleviate concerns related to consumption [5]

Economic Performance - The national economy of China continues to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies to enhance flexibility and predictability [1] - The industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with notable growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, which grew by 8.1% and 9.3% respectively [1] New Growth Drivers - High-tech product output is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in 3D printing equipment and new energy vehicles, indicating the effectiveness of new growth drivers [2] - The production of industrial robots has also been growing steadily, with civilian drone production increasing by over 50% year-on-year from January to August [2] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in August showed double-digit growth in categories such as home appliances, furniture, and cultural office supplies, reflecting the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [2] - Service retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales, with strong growth in tourism, transportation, and leisure services [3] Investment Dynamics - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 14.4% year-on-year from January to August, significantly contributing to fixed asset investment growth [3] - High-tech industry investment remains robust, with double-digit growth in sectors such as information services and aerospace equipment manufacturing [3] Policy Recommendations - To maintain stable economic growth, it is essential to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and consider new incremental policies [4] - Active fiscal policies should be intensified to provide immediate support for growth, with a focus on rapid expenditure of fiscal funds [4]

Group 1: Consumer Trends - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [1] - Retail sales of goods grew by 3.6%, while dining revenue increased by 2.1%, indicating a slowdown in retail growth compared to previous months [1] - The demand for upgraded consumer goods has expanded, driven by the "old-for-new" consumption initiative, with significant growth in categories such as furniture (18.6%), home appliances (14.3%), and cultural office supplies (14.2%) [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - Service retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales, indicating a robust service consumption sector [1][4] - The service price index rose by 0.6% in August, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4] - High-quality social services, including tourism and cultural activities, have seen increased demand, particularly during the summer [4] Group 3: Impact of Events on Local Economy - The "Su Chao" event has positively impacted local service consumption in Jiangsu, boosting tourism and hospitality sectors [5] - Despite a vibrant tourism market, the dining sector has experienced slower growth, with dining revenue growth rates of 0.9%, 1.1%, and 2.1% in June, July, and August respectively, which are lower than the first five months of the year [5][6] - Companies are adapting to changes in consumer behavior, such as adjusting menu prices and focusing on family dining options, in response to the evolving market landscape [6] Group 4: Emerging Consumer Products - The demand for sports and wearable smart devices has surged, with significant sales growth reported in categories like running shoes and sports apparel, with some items seeing over 200% year-on-year sales increases [2] - The prices of certain consumer goods, including sports equipment and smart devices, have risen, reflecting increased consumer interest and market dynamics [2] - The application of new technologies such as AI and XR in consumer products is expanding, with notable growth in immersive entertainment and educational applications [3]

Group 1: Overall Economic Performance - The retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, with service retail sales growing by 5.1%, indicating a continuous expansion of market sales [1][3] - In August, the retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging consumers to upgrade their purchases and the sales of related products [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The demand for goods consumption continued to grow, with significant increases in retail sales of home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture, all exceeding 10% year-on-year in August [1][2] - Service consumption showed stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% from January to August, driven by tourism and recreational activities during the summer [2][3] Group 3: New Consumption Patterns - Online retail sales increased by 9.6% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the overall retail sales growth, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.4% [2] - The retail volume of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market grew by over 20% year-on-year in the first eight months [2]

Group 1 - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, highlighting its role as the main driver of economic growth [1] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture saw year-on-year growth of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively, indicating a robust consumer market [1] - Various regions are implementing initiatives to stimulate consumption, such as Beijing's fashion consumption expansion plan and unique activities in Guangxi and Shanxi, which aim to cultivate new market dynamics [1] Group 2 - There are still barriers to fully unleashing consumption potential, particularly for the elderly demographic, who face challenges in accessing new consumption opportunities [2] - Key strategies to boost consumption include enhancing supply quality, optimizing the consumption environment, and increasing residents' income to improve consumer spending willingness [2] - Collaborative efforts from both supply and demand sides are essential to effectively implement policies that will drive consumption and contribute to high-quality economic development [2]

Group 1 - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, making it the main driver of economic growth [1] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture increased by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% year-on-year, respectively [1] - New consumer demands are emerging, creating new market opportunities and injecting vitality into economic development [1] Group 2 - There are barriers to fully unleashing consumption potential, particularly for the elderly, who face challenges in participating in new consumption trends [2] - Key to boosting consumption lies in enhancing supply quality and optimizing the consumption environment to encourage spending [2] - Collaborative efforts from both supply and demand sides are essential to implement policies effectively and drive high-quality economic development [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a series of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption have effectively stimulated China's consumption market, leading to stable growth and a stronger role as the "main engine" of economic growth [1] Group 2 - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has significantly boosted sales, with related sales exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan and benefiting over 320 million people by August 14, 2023 [1] - The automotive sector saw over 7.3 million vehicles replaced, while over 110 million home appliances and 789 million digital products were upgraded [1] - High-efficiency home appliances are experiencing rapid sales growth, indicating a trend towards quality large items [1] Group 3 - Service consumption demand has been consistently released, with an increase in tourism during the summer, leading to a new lifestyle where people travel for events [3] - Cultural venues have extended their opening hours, enhancing the cultural experience for visitors [3] - Related consumption in tourism, leisure, and cultural services has shown rapid growth, with retail sales in these sectors maintaining double-digit growth [3] Group 4 - Online consumption has gained momentum, with online retail sales increasing by 9.2% year-on-year in the first seven months of the year, marking a new high for the year [5]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing last year's growth of 5.0% and market expectations, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [1] - The contribution rates of the three main drivers of the economy were: final consumption expenditure at 52%, capital formation at 16.8%, and net exports at 31.2% [1] Consumption - Final consumption expenditure has become the main driving force for economic growth, with a contribution rate of 52.3% in the second quarter, slightly up from the first quarter [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with a second-quarter growth of 5.4%, an acceleration of 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter [1] - Various policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, particularly the "trade-in" policy, significantly boosted sales in appliances, automobiles, and communication products [1][2] Investment - Investment growth and contribution rates showed fluctuations, with real estate investment continuing to decline and manufacturing investment facing saturation and pressure [3] - Fixed asset investment nominally grew by 2.8%, while the actual growth rate, after adjusting for price effects, was 5.3% [3] - The manufacturing sector's investment growth fell to 5.1% year-on-year in June, indicating challenges in industrial production despite strong consumption and net exports [3] Trade and Exports - Net exports contributed significantly to economic growth, with total goods trade reaching 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - Exports broke the historical record of 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 2.7% [2] Market Sentiment - International institutions have raised their growth forecasts for China, reflecting the resilience of the economy against external shocks and the growth potential of domestic consumption [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,500 points, driven by restored investor confidence and expectations of continued policy support in the second half of the year [4]