A H 股市场周度观察（7 月第 2 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 07 月 12 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周市场整体上涨，小市值板块整体涨幅较大。而中大盘价值板块走势 相对承压。指数方面，本周中证 2000 指数上涨 2.32%，创业板指上涨 2.36%，而上 证 50 指数仅上涨 0.60%，涨幅相对较小。成交额方面，本周日均成交额达到 1.50 万 亿，环比增加 3.80%。 相关报告 1、《OBBB 法案通过后，特朗普开始 【深入剖析】本周市场整体上涨，其中地产链板块涨幅较大。房地产本周上涨 6.06%， 钢铁上涨 3.90%，建材上涨 3.07%，建筑上涨 2.71%。近期各大行业发文"反内卷"， 引发市场对于限产的预期，部分周期板块上周强势表现延续至本周。另一方面，近期 市场对于地产与城市更新的政策预期上升，带来地产链板块整体上涨 ...

Core Insights - S&P Global's Lin Huaibin predicts that a wave of breakeven for new energy vehicle (NEV) companies will occur in the next 2-3 years due to declining battery costs and increasing sales volume [1] Group 1: Profitability Forecast - The profitability of pure electric vehicle companies is expected to rise rapidly due to cost benefits from battery price reductions and scale effects from increasing sales [1] - Non-luxury NEV brands have a breakeven point at approximately 500,000 units sold annually, which companies like Leap Motor and Xpeng need to achieve [1] - Luxury NEV brands have a lower breakeven point of around 350,000 units, with companies like AITO, Li Auto, and Xiaomi expected to reach breakeven soon as their sales are projected to approach 450,000 units or higher this year [1] Group 2: Sales Projections - If Zeekr's sales reach approximately 340,000 units by 2026, it will also meet the profitability standard [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pivotal role of Ren Yuxiang in Tesla's success in China, particularly in establishing the Shanghai Gigafactory, which significantly improved Tesla's production capacity and profitability, contributing to its market valuation exceeding $1 trillion [5][21][54]. Group 1: Tesla's Challenges in the Chinese Market - Tesla faced severe challenges in the Chinese market, including low sales figures, with reports indicating only 120 cars sold in a month [6][7]. - The initial high price of imported Model 3 vehicles (starting at 499,000 yuan) deterred potential buyers in China [7]. - To reduce prices, Tesla needed to establish local production, which initially required forming a joint venture, a condition that Elon Musk was reluctant to accept [8][9]. Group 2: Ren Yuxiang's Role in Tesla's Strategy - Ren Yuxiang, a key figure with strong government connections, was recruited by Musk to help navigate the complexities of the Chinese market [11][12]. - He advocated for the benefits of wholly-owned factories in China, arguing that Tesla's technology could enhance the local supply chain [13][14]. - In 2018, after the Chinese government lifted foreign ownership restrictions, Ren facilitated the signing of a cooperation memorandum between Tesla and the Shanghai government [17][19]. Group 3: Achievements of the Shanghai Gigafactory - Under Ren's leadership, Tesla secured favorable terms for the Shanghai factory, including land at a 90% discount, low-interest loans exceeding 16 billion yuan, and expedited approval processes [18]. - The Shanghai Gigafactory was completed and operational within 10 months, contributing to half of Tesla's global production capacity and reducing costs by 65% [20][21]. - This factory played a crucial role in transforming Tesla from a loss-making entity to a profitable one, leading to a market valuation surpassing $1 trillion by October 2021 [21][54]. Group 4: Current Leadership and Future Challenges - Following the departure of Omid Afshar, the new leadership under Zhu Xiaotong is expected to address ongoing challenges, particularly in the European market, where Tesla's new car registrations fell by 37% in early 2025 [25][46]. - Zhu Xiaotong, who has been instrumental in the rapid development of the Shanghai factory, is now tasked with revitalizing Tesla's sales and production strategies globally [40][54]. - The article highlights the shift in Tesla's challenges from production issues in 2018 to sales difficulties in 2025, particularly in competitive markets like China and Europe [53].

从销售规模来看，今年上半年，极氪、零跑、理想的累计交付规模已经超过了20万辆，分别为24.49 万、22.17万20.39万辆，小鹏汽车19.72万辆，赛力斯半年累计销量达17.21万辆。深蓝、小米和蔚来的半 年度销量在10万~15万辆之间。 利润方面，赛力斯最新发布了半年度业绩预增公告，公司预计报告期归属净利润为27亿~32亿元，同比 上升66.20%到96.98%；扣非净利润为22.30亿~27.30亿元，同比上升55.13%到89.92%。此外，理想汽车 一季度营收259亿元，净利润6.47亿元，同比增长9.4%；零跑汽车在一季度营收100.2亿元，毛利率达到 14.9%，该公司去年四季度曾实现单季度盈利；小鹏汽车营收达158.1亿元，净亏损6.6亿元，公司毛利 率提升至15.6%，环比同比均有改善。 艾睿铂亚太区汽车及工业品咨询业务负责人戴加辉称，美国原来也有100多家车企，慢慢整合到现有的 33家，驱动因素主要是供多于求导致的。 上述报告表示，市场将出现明显的整合，只有最具竞争力的品牌有望在未来几年取得成功。一些领先的 新能源企业已经实现了全年盈利，凸显了该行业发展的可持续增长潜力。虽然一些品牌可能 ...

Group 1 - Xiaomi's Yu7 has received 200,000 pre-orders in just 3 minutes, but delivery times are extended due to production capacity constraints, with standard versions expected to take over a year for delivery [1] - The long wait times for the Yu7 have created opportunities for competitors like Model Y and Zhijie R7, which are gaining popularity in the 250,000-300,000 yuan electric SUV market [1] - The competition in the SUV market is intensifying, with brands striving to enhance user experience through product innovation and technological advancements [1][2] Group 2 - The Yu7 and Zhijie R7 are larger in size compared to the Model Y, with the Yu7's initial success attributed to its aesthetic appeal and unique features, such as multiple magnetic points for ecosystem integration [2] - Zhijie R7 offers both pure electric and range-extended versions, with a maximum range of 802 km for the pure electric model and rapid charging capabilities [3] - The evolution of Chinese brands in the electric vehicle sector is reshaping the industry landscape, with companies like Xiaomi and Zhijie making significant strides against previously dominant players like Tesla [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3509.68 points, marking a 9-month high, but historical data shows that in the past 10 years, the index has not performed well after crossing this level [3] - Bank stocks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, hit historical highs, while real estate stocks experienced a surge [4] Group 2: Company Performance - iFlytek expects a net profit increase of 30%-50% in the first half of the year, with its AI model X1 performing at an international top level and consumer business revenue doubling [5] - WuXi AppTec reported a 101.92% year-on-year increase in net profit, primarily due to gains from the sale of equity in an associate company, with adjusted net profit increasing by 44.43% [6] - Seres anticipates a net profit increase of 66.2%-96.98%, driven by significant growth in new energy vehicle sales [6] Group 3: Industry Trends - The price of polysilicon futures surpassed 40,000 yuan per ton, with N-type raw material prices increasing by 6.92% month-on-month, driven by leading companies' price support, although industry overcapacity remains a concern [7] - Rare earth prices have been raised by Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel, with the price for the third quarter set at 19,109 yuan per ton, influenced by "anti-involution" policies and recovering demand [7] Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Sales - From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 41.4% and 40.3%, respectively, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales, supported by policy initiatives and market recovery [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in June showed positive trends, benefiting from national "two new" policy subsidies and improved external trade conditions [1] - The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June reached 1.26 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 29% and a month-on-month increase of 3%, with a penetration rate of 50.9% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to June, wholesale sales totaled 6.47 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38% [1] Group 2 - The industry is experiencing an upward trend in prosperity, driven by the resonance of demand for power and energy storage, with leading companies showing strong production performance in July [1] - Global power battery installations grew by 38.5% year-on-year from January to May, with Chinese companies accounting for 68.4% of the total share among the top 10, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The SPE has proposed a tenfold expansion target for energy storage in Europe, with significant year-on-year growth in large-scale storage installations in Germany, indicating a positive outlook for energy storage demand [1] Group 3 - The New Energy Vehicle ETF closely tracks the CS New Energy Vehicle Index, which is compiled and published by the China Securities Index Co., Ltd [1] - The index selects listed company securities involved in the core industrial chain of new energy vehicles, including lithium batteries, electric motors, electronic controls, and charging piles, covering all segments of the new energy vehicle industry [1] - The index aims to accurately reflect the overall market performance of listed companies in China's new energy vehicle sector, highlighting industry growth and representativeness [1]

宏观日报 | 2025-07-11 新能源车下游销售增长 中观事件总览 生产行业：新能源车销量增加。 1）中国汽车工业协会发布的数据显示，今年以来，我国实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策，经济运行总体平稳。1至6月份，汽车市场延续良好态势，产销量均超过1500万辆，同比均实现10%以上较 高增长。其中，新能源汽车产销量分别完成696.8万辆和693.7万辆，同比分别增长41.4%和40.3%。新能源汽车新车 销量达到汽车新车总销量的44.3%。 服务行业：外来人士出入境政策更新。 1）《中华人民共和国政府和马来西亚政府关于互免持公务普通护照和普通 护照人员签证的协定》将于2025年7月17日生效。根据协定，持有效的中国公务普通护照、普通护照和马来西亚普 通护照人员，以休闲旅游、探亲访友、商务活动、交流访问、私人事务、医疗、国际运输（机组人员）为目的， 在缔约另一方入境、出境或者过境，停留不超过30日，且每180日累计停留不超过90日，可免办签证。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：国际油价回升。2）化工：PTA价格回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 | 图1：煤炭: 日均耗 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of the "anti-involution" policy is to address low-price and disorderly competition, guiding companies to enhance product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, thereby optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure to improve China's global economic and industrial competitiveness [1] - The "anti-involution" policy shares similarities with the supply-side structural reform initiated in 2015, focusing on technological innovation, product differentiation, and sustainable development of the industrial chain [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context for "anti-involution" is more complex compared to previous reforms, and it encompasses a broader range of industries, including emerging sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, in addition to traditional industries [2] - The focus of the "anti-involution" policy is on enhancing domestic core competitiveness and transitioning from quantity competition to quality improvement, emphasizing green and low-carbon transformation [2] - The policy measures for "anti-involution" are more diversified and rely on the construction of a unified national market, emphasizing legal frameworks and fair competition, unlike the more administrative measures used in the supply-side structural reform [2] Group 3 - Both the 2015 supply-side structural reform and "anti-involution" aim to resolve structural issues in the economy, optimizing resource allocation and improving economic quality and efficiency [3] - The supply-side structural reform was primarily focused on eliminating ineffective low-end supply and optimizing economic structure, while "anti-involution" addresses the challenges of disordered low-price competition that harms cash flow and industry health [3] - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to have a longer duration, focusing on long-term institutional construction to enhance industry competitiveness [2][3]

以下文章来源于闻道商业 ，作者射天狼 闻道商业 . 闻道创客故事，探寻企业价值！ 两个中国人， 执掌特斯拉全球制造大权。 文 ｜ 射天狼 来源｜ 闻道商业 （ID:WENDAOshangxueyuan） 封面来源 ｜ 《埃隆·马斯克传》 特斯拉上海独资建厂 任宇翔功不可没 2018年，特斯拉驶入至暗时刻。 在美国，严重的产能危机，以及过低的良品率，将马斯克架在火上炙烤。虎视眈眈的华尔街大佬们正考虑动用资本大棒，做空特斯拉。 大洋另一侧，在全球新能源车近半销量的中国市场，特斯拉却迟迟打不开局面。面对"一个月只卖120辆车"的惨淡数据，马斯克愤怒之余，一度想解散整个 中国团队。 打不开中国市场，不是没有原因的。彼时，特斯拉在中国销售的都是进口车，49.9万起步价的Model 3让一众国人望而却步。 要想降价必须实现国内自产，而外企在华产车的前提一度是要成立合资公司。狂人马斯克，自然不愿。 暗地里，马斯克开始物色"中国通"，撬开中国市场。同为宾夕法尼亚大学校友的任宇翔，早早进入了马斯克的视线。 从2012年起，马斯克便多番邀约任宇翔入职特斯拉。但最初任宇翔对马斯克抛出的橄榄枝大感讶异，用任宇翔的话说，"他对汽车产业 ...