2026 年 02 月 24 日 橡胶：震荡偏强 20260224 高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 gaolinlin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 橡胶趋势强度：1 注 ：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【行业新闻】 从近 5 年来的数据来看，春节后天然橡胶价格普遍以上涨为主。2026 年来看，节前国内天然橡胶泰混 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 315 | 16. 450 | -135 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | l | 16. 485 | l | | | | 成交量(手) | 165, 470 | 180, 678 | -15, 208 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 140. 235 | 152, 702 | -12, ...

核心提示：据外媒2月19日报道，天然橡胶生产国协会（ANRPC）表示，随着新兴经济体和发达经济体 汽车行业的加速增长推动了消费量的增加，2... ANRPC称，2026年的总体需求预计将增长1.7%，达到1,560万吨。作为天然橡胶主要消费国，中国和印 度的需求预计将分别增长1.7%和3.6%。这很可能会使全球价格持坚。日本橡胶期货在2025年下跌后， 2026年上涨了约3%。橡胶在2024年是大宗商品市场中涨幅最大的品种，上涨了46%。 ANRPC表示，这种消费与生产之间的失衡预计将加大价格的上涨压力，并维持全球天然橡胶市场的结 构性紧缩状况。世界最大的橡胶生产国泰国2026年的产量预计将保持平稳。印度由于价格低、病害以及 土地转为油棕种植等原因，自2022年以来持续下降。 据外媒2月19日报道，天然橡胶生产国协会（ANRPC）表示，随着新兴经济体和发达经济体汽车行业的 加速增长推动了消费量的增加，2026年全球天然橡胶市场预计将连续第六年供不应求。2025年全球天然 橡胶产量增长了1.4%，2026年预计将增长2.4%至1,520万吨。 该机构表示，尽管2025年以来种植者价格有所提高，但产量的增长仍低于 ...

近期事件 股东及董管人员减持计划实施完毕：2026年2月9日，公司公告控股股东一致行动人及部分董事、高级管 理人员减持计划已执行完毕，合计减持9.77万股，占总股本的0.0962%。此次减持按计划进行，不会对 公司控制权及经营产生重大影响。 2025年年度业绩预告发布：公司于2026年1月19日发布业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属净利润为8500万 元至1亿元，同比增长76.27%至107.37%。业绩变动主要源于产品结构优化、产销量提升及原材料成本 下降。投资者可关注后续正式年报的披露时间，以获取详细财务数据。 股价与资金表现 股价与资金波动：截至2026年2月11日，公司股价报47.02元，单日上涨1.05%，但主力资金净流出 207.36万元，换手率5.34%。技术面显示股价接近压力位47.13元，市场交投活跃度较高。 经济观察网远翔新材（301300）控股股东一致行动人及部分董监高减持计划已执行完毕，2025年业绩预 计大幅增长。 融资融券数据：2026年1月26日，公司融资余额7877.04万元，占流通市值4.90%，处于近一年较高水 平。融资盘稳定性可能影响短期波动。 公司基本面 业务与行业背景： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot - end negotiation atmosphere becomes lighter, with the inventory of production and trading enterprises increasing. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly declined, and it will be at the lowest point during the Spring Festival holiday [8]. - During the long holiday, attention should be paid to the external macro - situation, geopolitics, and crude oil prices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to the external macro - situation, geopolitics, and crude oil prices during the long holiday [7]. - Market review and outlook: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated weakly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot - end negotiation is light, with inventory rising. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has declined and will be at the lowest point during the holiday [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.99% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13th, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 85 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12th, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 14,580 tons, an increase of 3,470 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of February 12th, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of February 12th, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of February 12th, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at $612.13/ton, an increase of $9.5/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at $690/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of February 13th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 74.55%, an increase of 1.43% from last week; the port inventory was 36,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week [34]. 3.3.2. Industry - Production and capacity utilization rate: In January 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. As of February 12th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 79.63%, an increase of 0.77% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of February 12th, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 286 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of February 13th, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 33,910 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,800 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 6,110 tons, an increase of 80 tons from last week [45]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of February 12th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [48]. - Tire exports: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [51]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - No relevant information provided

化工日报 | 2026-02-13 轮胎开工率季节性下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16450元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨；NR主力合约13370元/吨，较前一日变动-75 元/吨；BR主力合约12715元/吨，较前一日变动-305元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16250元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15350元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1990美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1930 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12600元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 2025年12月我国汽车产销分别完成329.6万辆和327.2万辆，环比分别下降6.7%和4.6%，同比分别下降2.1%和6.2%。 2025年全年，汽车产销量分别为3453.1万辆和3440万辆，同比分别增长10.4%和9.4%，产销量再创历史新高，连续 17年稳居全球第一。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年12月报告预测 ...

Group 1 - The national production material market prices decreased by 0.3% from February 2 to February 8 compared to the previous week [1] Group 2 - Non-ferrous metal prices slightly declined, with aluminum, zinc, and copper decreasing by 3.8%, 1.4%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Steel prices continued to fall, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3350 yuan, 3510 yuan, and 3627 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed a slight decrease, with anthracite, thermal coal, and coking coal priced at 1134 yuan, 776 yuan, and 1048 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 3 - Rubber prices experienced a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber both decreasing by 0.1% [3] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 1.1%, while soda ash, polypropylene, and methanol decreased by 1.2%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively [3] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with compound fertilizer and urea rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [3] Group 4 - Wholesale prices of finished oil slightly increased, with 95-octane gasoline, 92-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel rising by 1.8%, 1.7%, and 1.0% respectively [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16400，基差-50 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：市场情绪降温，节前或区间波动 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

2026 年 02 月 13 日 橡胶：震荡运行 20260213 | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | | | | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 450 | 16. 575 | -125 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 485 | 16. 520 | -35 | | | | 成交量(手) | 180, 678 | 270. 154 | -89.476 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 152, 702 | 162, 081 | -9.379 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 112, 570 | 112. 570 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 22, 675 | 25. 648 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply of the domestic and foreign natural rubber markets tends to decline, while the operating load of domestic tire enterprises further decreases, showing weak demand. Social inventory pressure is difficult to relieve and will continue the inventory accumulation trend. The Shanghai rubber futures may continue the narrow - range oscillatory mode. Three key variables need attention: the recovery rhythm of the rubber - tapping peak season in Southeast Asia, the subsequent changes in EU trade policies, and the implementation effect of domestic automobile consumption stimulus policies. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading becomes cautious, resulting in an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session on Thursday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The demand side enters the typical pre - festival off - season. The downstream tire and rubber product enterprises have basically completed their stockpiling, with a rapid decline in the operating rate and a low purchasing willingness. The orders in the all - steel tire and semi - steel tire markets are weak, and the demand related to logistics and infrastructure has not recovered. Terminal consumption shows a seasonal contraction, and the market lacks rigid demand support. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading becomes cautious, resulting in an oscillatory and weak trend in the domestic synthetic rubber futures on Thursday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [6].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. Given the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, previous short positions should take profits, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so short positions on rallies are recommended [8]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity reduction expectations, and export rush support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually liquidated [21]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate is declining [24]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period of history. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips after the Spring Festival [30]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [35]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 0.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.19%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.83 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 10.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 1843 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 63 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. Bulls were optimistic due to macro, seasonal, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.94%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.42% [11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 52 yuan to 4938 yuan. The overall operating rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3%. The downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a decrease of 3.3%. Factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 87.5 yuan/ton to 6103 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 150 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 10.86 million tons [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 37.97 million tons [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.49 million tons to 41.58 million tons [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 62 yuan to 7202 yuan. China's PX load was 92%, an increase of 2.5%. Asian load was 83.7%, an increase of 1.3%. In early February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 17.5 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year - on - year [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 40 yuan to 5220 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 25 yuan to 5205 yuan. The PTA load was 74.8%, a decrease of 2.8%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 232.6 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan to 3723 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 13 yuan to 3639 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.8%, an increase of 0.7%. Port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 93.5 million tons [34].