1 破局经营困境 巧用期货工具稳健前行 在南粤大地，产业脉动强劲澎湃，企业活力奔涌不息。作为改革开放的前沿阵地，广东深度嵌入全球产 业链与国际大市场，外贸依存度高的特质，也使其容易受国际市场波动的传导冲击。同时，其制造业占 GDP比重超30%，钢铁、家电、汽车、电子信息、农产品等重点产业集群对原材料价格波动高度敏感， 产业发展面临的市场不确定性显著。 面对复杂的市场环境，众多广东企业勇立潮头，率先探索期货工具的应用之道，积累了丰富且成熟的经 验，展现出对金融赋能产业的高度认可与卓越运用能力，为行业树立了标杆。 随着经济高质量发展与城市群建设提速，以珠三角为代表的华南地区钢材需求旺盛，催生了活跃的钢材 贸易生态。自1998年成立以来，凯发公司便扎根佛山市顺德区乐从镇，凭借敏锐的市场洞察力和稳健的 经营策略，在钢材市场的风云变幻中站稳了脚跟。 作为常年存货数万吨，销售钢材数十万吨的产业企业，凯发公司曾因经营模式单一，时常面临库存减 值、订单萎缩、资金回流承压等多重市场挑战。"那时候，一旦遇到钢材价格回落，我们只能看着堆积 的库存急得团团转，不知道怎么才能守住成本、减少亏损。"凯发公司相关负责人坦言，早期，对于期 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for next year is marginally improving with limited downside. Due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, there will be bearish fundamentals, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The short - term trading strategy is neutral, with a short - selling strategy if it falls below 16,000. It is also recommended to partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [10][11][14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. In the short - term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, while in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large upward repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage after short - term inventory drawdown. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks in the short - term due to the tense situation in Iran [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.02% decline, at 416.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.00 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 33.00 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase, to 2929.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419.06 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 413.46 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 242.04 million barrels, a 3.29% increase; diesel inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels to 129.27 million barrels, a 4.52% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 22.98 million barrels, a 0.27% decrease; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.05 million barrels to 44.03 million barrels, a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 15 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 127 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The tire开工率 has marginally deteriorated. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 tons as of December 21, 2025, a 2.5% increase from the previous month [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral short - term trading strategy, or wait and see. Short if it falls below 16,000. Partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 255 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period, with the calcium - carbide method at 78.4% (a 0.1% decrease) and the ethylene method at 79.3% (a 5% increase). The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. Factory inventory was 30.9 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons), and social inventory was 106.3 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons) [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5442 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The basis was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 138.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 99.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The EB spread between the first and second contracts was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, a 2.47 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase [22]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, a 2.3 - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, a 2.75 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 7.11 tons, a 0.48 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 144 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decrease [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the oversupply situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom out [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 14 dollars to 886 dollars. The basis was 1 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 42 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX operating rate was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase. A 820,000 - ton overseas plant in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, a 42,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In November, the inventory was 4.02 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 367 dollars (a 2 - dollar decrease), the South Korean PX - MX was 147 dollars (a 7 - dollar decrease), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 dollars (a 1 - dollar decrease) [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5070 yuan. The basis was - 48 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. Some plants were under maintenance or restarted. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 203 tons as of January 4, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 43 yuan to 367 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market increased by 14 yuan to 384 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, paying attention to the rhythm [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan to 3717 yuan. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, a 0.2% increase, with the syngas - based method at 78.6% (a 2.8% increase) and the ethylene - based method at 71.3% (a 1.2% decrease). Some plants were under maintenance or planned to start production. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 7 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 72.5 tons, a 5000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 756 yuan, that of domestic ethylene - based production was - 892 yuan, and that of coal - based production was 188 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 540 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious of short - term rebound risks due to the tense situation in Iran. Expect further valuation compression in the medium - term without further production cuts in China [33].

西非经济门户网1月7日报道，2025年第三季度科特迪瓦外贸实现跨越式增长，出口激增带动外贸呈 现近年来罕见的复苏态势。2025年7月至9月，科贸易总额同比增长28%，出口额为74.2亿美元，同比增 长51.4%，进口额为48.5亿美元，同比小幅增长3.5%，贸易顺差达到25.7亿美元，比去年同期的2.2亿美 元增长了十多倍。出口品类方面，橡胶和橡胶制品（11亿美元，+47.1%）、黄金等贵金属（11亿美 元，+28.2%）、腰果（6.5亿美元，+74.4%）、原油（6.1亿美元，+89%）是带动出口增长的主要驱动 力。出口目的地方面，科产品出口市场仍以欧洲和亚洲为主，瑞士和法国分别以9.8亿美元和9.4亿美元 的进口额位列科前两大采购国地位，其后分别是荷兰、马里、越南、马来西亚、中国、德国、美国和西 班牙，前十大采购国占科出口总额的66.5%。进口品类方面，石油产品（5亿美元，+21.4%）、通用机 械（+9.3%）和汽车（+28.5%）是主要进口产品，需要指出的是，原油进口大幅下降66%，金属制品进 口也呈下降趋势，是促进贸易平衡的重要因素。进口来源国方面，中国仍是科最大供应国，对科出口额 为9.4亿美元， ...

隔夜美糖震荡。国际方面，短期来看，市场主要的关注点是北半球的产量预期差。25/26榨季印度生产进度较快，产糖量同比大 幅增加。不过。泰国的生产进度较慢、产糖量不及预期，关注后续生产数据的变化。国内方面，郑糖震荡。生产方面，12月广 西产销双减。12月广西单月产糖180.8万吨，同比减少43.1万吨；销糖79.54万吨，同比减少55.18万吨；工业库存105.71万吨, 同比减少6.21万吨。从产销数据来看，相对偏多。销量大幅下降的主要原因是市场看空情绪较强,导致采购较少。产量方面, 虽然25/26榨季广西增产预期较强,但是生产进度始终偏慢,如果后期产量无法增加,期货价格将向上修复，关注后续生产情 况，操作上暂时观望。 (苹果) 期价高位震荡。现货方面,主流价格持稳、需求有所增加。陕西部分软半商品果农货要价下调，果农出货意愿有所增加。产地 冷库客商包装自有货源发市场为主,对果农货采购较少。由于客商开始为春节备货,冷库成交量有所增加。库存方面,卓创的 数据显示，截至12月26日，全国冷库苹果库存为702.1万吨，同比下降12.76%。全国冷库苹果去库量为10.6万吨，同比下降 14. 17%。从交易逻辑来看，市场 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2026-01-08 动。 免责声明 | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 16120 | -60 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13065 | -85 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) 10 | 0 20号胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -45 | 5 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) 3055 期货市场 | 25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 196468 | -3654 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) 71121 | -1611 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -46456 | 3840 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 -13566 | 475 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 103190 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 57154 | 202 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 15750 现货市场 | 100 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 16050 | ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 或有小幅回升。br2603合约短线预计在12000-12550区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 合成橡胶产业日报 2026-01-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 40 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12195 | | 30228 | -3753 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) -5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | -35 | | 4530 | -30 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11800 | | 11800 | 50 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 ...

证券之星消息，1月8日橡胶板块较上一交易日上涨2.93%，彤程新材领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4082.98，下跌0.07%。深证成指报收于13959.48，下跌0.51%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流入3847.73万元，游资资金净流出1.84亿元，散户资金净 流入1.46亿元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603650 彤程新材 | | 1.27亿 | 3.60% | -1.87 Z | -5.29% | 6005.43万 | 1.70% | | 002068 黑猫股份 | | 3012.48万 | 14.46% | -875.22万 | -4.20% | -2137.26万 | -10.26% | | 920098 科隆新材 | | 1171.39万 | 14.45% | -127.03万 | -1.57% | 34.97万 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-08 品种晨会纪要 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 橡胶： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周三油价重心继续回落，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌1.14美元至55.99美元/桶，跌幅2.00%。布伦特3月合 约收盘下跌0.74美元至59.96美元/桶，跌幅1.22%。SC2602以415.5元/桶收盘，下跌9.3元/桶，跌幅为 2.19%。美国已达成一项进口价值最高20亿美元委内瑞拉原油的协议，此举预计将增加全球最大石油消 费国的原油供应量，受此消息影响，国际油价于周三下跌。美国与委内瑞拉政府达成的这项协议，初期 或要求原本运往中国的原油船货改变航线。自去年12月中旬以来，因特朗普政府实施出口封锁，委内瑞 拉数百万桶已装载至油轮及储存在油罐中的原油一直无法运出。当前来看，从委内瑞拉原油的量及运输 流向上来看，矛盾在于量未来只增不减，而贸易流向则是西升东降，国内需要关注的是折价油种的替 代，以及能源的溢出效应，传导到电力端。海上航运当前也面临冲击，美国欧洲司令部在社交媒体上发 布消息称，在北大西洋扣押了一艘俄罗斯油轮。随后，美国南方司令部也在社交媒 ...