Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "transformation bull market" in the Chinese stock market is far from over, with expectations of reaching higher levels by 2026 and a larger scale of new capital entering the market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to challenge its 2015 peak, which reached a high of 5178 points in June 2015 after rising from around 3000 points [1] - The spring season is historically a favorable period for growth styles in the market, with significant investment opportunities expected, particularly in technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors [1] Group 2 - The current market environment is characterized by an overall valuation expansion in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with long-term supportive factors remaining unchanged [1] - The CSI 300 Index, known as a "barometer" for A-share performance, includes key sectors such as finance, technology, and consumer [2] - The Huaxia CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH) is noted for having the lowest fee rate among similar products in the market [2]

Group 1: Global Trade and Financial Market Dynamics - The unilateral imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration marked a structural reversal in global trade policy, leading to significant financial market volatility, with G20 countries implementing trade restrictions covering $2.9 trillion, surpassing trade facilitation measures for the first time [1] - The trade war and financial market turmoil mutually reinforced each other, creating a core risk landscape for the global economy in 2025 [2] Group 2: Digital Currency Competition - In 2025, major economies shifted from technological exploration to institutional construction in the digital currency space, with the U.S. establishing a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies through the GENIUS Act and Hong Kong introducing a stablecoin regulatory draft [3] - The rapid development of digital currency regulation signifies a critical phase in digital financial governance, with countries competing for monetary sovereignty and financial discourse power [3] Group 3: Global Debt Levels - Global debt reached a historic high of $337.76 trillion by mid-2025, with developed markets' debt being 2.08 times that of emerging markets, although the latter experienced a faster debt growth rate [4] - The rising global debt levels raise concerns about financial system vulnerabilities and the need for effective multilateral debt restructuring mechanisms [5] Group 4: U.S. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate-cutting cycle in September 2025, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, amidst concerns of economic recession due to a weakening labor market [6] - The depreciation of the dollar against other currencies and the Fed's monetary policy uncertainty contributed to global financial market volatility [7] Group 5: Euro Strength and Economic Implications - The euro's nominal effective exchange rate index rose to a five-year high, driven by increased demand for euro assets amid global economic uncertainty, despite the European Central Bank's rate cuts [8] - The euro's appreciation poses challenges for the eurozone's manufacturing exports, as geopolitical risks and rising tariffs continue to impact economic growth prospects [8] Group 6: Japan's Monetary Policy Shift - Japan's central bank raised interest rates to 0.75%, marking a 30-year high, indicating a potential normalization of monetary policy amid economic recovery signals [9] - The implications of Japan's rate hike on global monetary trends remain limited, as the overall trend of monetary easing persists [9] Group 7: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices surged to historical peaks in 2025, with gold reaching $4,530.8 per ounce and silver hitting $70.155 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued monetary easing [10] - The price increases reflect a shift towards a more balanced and stable international monetary order, with precious metals becoming key assets in the evolving financial landscape [10] Group 8: Technology Sector Volatility - The total market capitalization of major tech companies approached $22 trillion, but a significant sell-off occurred in November 2025 due to concerns over high valuations and potential bubble risks [11] - The market's shift from "imagination premium" to "realization assessment" indicates a structural adjustment in global capital risk preferences, with funds potentially reallocating towards more stable growth markets [11] Group 9: Declining Dollar Dominance - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92%, marking the lowest level since 1995, amidst a trend of "de-dollarization" driven by geopolitical tensions and the U.S. tariff policies [12] - The decline in the dollar's reserve share reflects a broader diversification trend in global foreign exchange reserves, although the dollar's dominance remains relatively stable in the short term [12] Group 10: BRICS Expansion - Indonesia's accession as the tenth member of BRICS signifies a significant expansion of the group's economic influence, with member countries now representing over 40% of global GDP and more than half of the world's population [13] - The expansion of BRICS reflects a concerted effort by non-Western nations to reform global governance and create a more resilient economic framework amidst rising protectionism [13]

Core Viewpoint - The abnormal behavior of the Hong Kong stock market at the end of 2025 is primarily attributed to liquidity tightening due to "deposit migration" and a reduction in southbound capital inflows, which are the main reasons for the market's weakness in recent months. Looking ahead to 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from improved liquidity and stable macroeconomic conditions in mainland China, with a focus on cyclical and technology-oriented companies [2][12][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The relationship between the offshore RMB exchange rate and the Hang Seng Index has historically been strong, but this correlation broke down at the end of November 2025, leading to unexpected market behavior [6]. - Despite a decrease in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), the stock market experienced contraction, indicating that the decline in HIBOR was not due to improved liquidity but rather to deposit migration [5][11]. - A significant outflow of funds from Hong Kong was observed at the end of 2025, coinciding with a rise in the USD/HKD exchange rate, which further contributed to the market's volatility [7][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook for 2026 - The southbound capital inflow is expected to increase in 2026, driven by the listing of quality companies, which will help mitigate the volatility caused by foreign capital movements [12][15]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is anticipated to be better than in the previous year, with cyclical sectors likely to dominate the market as geopolitical tensions ease [15]. - Companies that combine cyclical growth with technological advancements, such as Alibaba, are expected to be key focus areas, as they can leverage retail growth to support investments in technology [15][16].

Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, and contracts tied to the Nasdaq added 0.6%, putting the tech-heavy index on course to snap a five-day losing streak. Gold futures rose 2.5% to $4,440 an ounce and silver futures jumped 6.5% to $75.60 an ounce following Saturday's attack on Venezuela. Wall Street is worried that the raid could upend the long-standing global order and make it easier for China and Russia to justify sovereignty violations of their own. S ...

新浪科技讯 1月4日晚间消息，针对媒体发布宇树科技A股IPO"绿色通道"被叫停一事，宇树科技官方回 应新浪科技称："该报道涉及我司上市工作相关动态情况的内容与事实情况不符，我司未涉及申请'绿色 通道'相关事宜。相关报道误导公众认知，已严重侵害我司合法权益。" 宇树科技方面表示，"我司已向主管部门反映，同时督促相关方撤回不实报道。我司在此严正声明，后 续将保留通过法律手段追责的权利。" 据悉，目前，宇树科技上市工作正常推进，相关进展将依法依规进行披露。（文猛） 责任编辑：何俊熹 新浪科技讯 1月4日晚间消息，针对媒体发布宇树科技A股IPO"绿色通道"被叫停一事，宇树科技官方回 应新浪科技称："该报道涉及我司上市工作相关动态情况的内容与事实情况不符，我司未涉及申请'绿色 通道'相关事宜。相关报道误导公众认知，已严重侵害我司合法权益。" 宇树科技方面表示，"我司已向主管部门反映，同时督促相关方撤回不实报道。我司在此严正声明，后 续将保留通过法律手段追责的权利。" 据悉，目前，宇树科技上市工作正常推进，相关进展将依法依规进行披露。（文猛） 责任编辑：何俊熹 ...

2026/1/2 14:13 A Final Take On 2025 From Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho | ZeroHedge ⾼盛对冲基⾦主管对2025年的最终看法 BY TYLER DURDEN FRIDAY, JAN 02,2026-02:25 AM 2025年对美国股票来说是⾮常不错的⼀年。⾼盛对冲基⾦业务主管托尼·帕斯夸⾥洛表示，他在措 辞上反复斟酌后得出结论："⾮常不错"这⼀说法与标普500指数实现稳健的两位数回报率相符，⽽ 且这⼀回报率明显⾼于⻓期平均⽔平。 尽管美国市场的表现⽐前两年稍逊⼀筹，但整体回报率仍然可观：纳斯达克100指数上涨21%…… 标普500指数上涨18%……道琼斯⼯业平均指数上涨15%……罗素指数上涨13%……标普等权重指 数上涨11%……中型股指数上涨7%。 i. 标普 500 指数上涨了 16% 。包括股息在内，总回报率为 +18% 。这在 1962 年以来的年 度回报率中排名第 57 百分位。 ii. 实际波动率为 19% ，在历史百分位中排名第 83 位。 iii. 综合这些数据，标普回报率与波动率的⽐率为 1.0 ，处于历史第 43 ...

这一波股市上涨凸显出投资者对与人工智能相关资产的无比热情，人工智能主题在年初时成为全球股市 的主要叙事方向。科技股表现尤为突出，领涨板块上涨了2.8%。这种增长得益于新上市公司和技术相 关进展所带来的市场激情。投资者将目光聚焦于发展中的技术进步和公司创新，特别是在人工智能应用 领域所带来的商业潜力。 市场分析人士指出，投资者对于美国经济增长和人工智能持有过重仓位，他们正在寻找那些估值可能更 低或在上一轮经济周期中表现不佳的领域进行投资。正因为此，新兴市场成为了投资者们心目中的理想 选择。这些市场不仅为投资者提供了全面发展的机会，而且在科技股方面，尤其是人工智能领域，展现 出了巨大的潜力。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：美股情报站） 2026年开启以来，新兴市场股票迎来了近年来最为强劲的开局表现，已升至自2021年后的最高点，尤其 受到亚洲地区人工智能热潮推动的发展势头。市场对人工智能在亚洲地区崛起所带来的潜力充满期待， 这让该地区的科技股蓬勃发展。MSCI的发展中国家指数在新年的首个交易日中上涨了1.7%，达到了自 2021年2月以来的最高水平，同时，相应的货币指数则保持不变。 进入2026年后，新兴市场的迅速发展 ...

1月2日，香港恒生指数开盘涨0.34%，恒生科技指数涨0.58%。利弗莫尔证券显示，壁仞科技上市首日 开盘报35.7港元，涨幅82.14%，招股价为19.6港元。 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth outlook for 2026 is influenced by increasing geopolitical competition, particularly in trade and innovation sectors like AI [8] - The dual circulation model in China is evolving, with internal economic supply improving while external demand shows new patterns, particularly in capital goods exports to emerging markets [8][9] - Key factors for promoting internal and external circulation include innovation development and boosting domestic demand, with fiscal expansion playing a crucial role [9] U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in January and April 2026, bringing the target range to 3.00%-3.25% due to a cooling labor market [11][12] - The Fed faces dual pressures from rising inflation and a weakening job market, with the unemployment rate projected to peak at 4.7% in Q2 2026 [12] Currency and Commodity Outlook - The U.S. dollar may continue to weaken in 2026, but factors such as the resilience of the gold market and the Fed's commitment to independence could mitigate this [15] - Gold prices are projected to rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by strong central bank demand and a favorable macroeconomic environment [17][18] U.S. Stock Market and AI Sector - The U.S. stock market, particularly tech stocks, is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by solid corporate earnings and favorable liquidity conditions [20][21] - The current AI boom is fundamentally different from past bubbles, with real demand and strategic capital expenditures driving growth, although volatility and sector differentiation are anticipated [22][23] China Economic Growth - China's economy is projected to grow around 5% in 2026, supported by a recovering global trade environment and diversified export markets [25][26] - Internal demand is expected to improve due to counter-cyclical policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and stimulating consumption [26][27] Fiscal and Monetary Policy in China - China's fiscal policy will become more proactive, with an expected increase in deficit and government debt issuance to support economic growth [33][34] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to enhance liquidity [30][29] Real Estate Market in China - The real estate market is still in a downward phase, with significant price declines and sales drops, but there is hope for stabilization in 2026 with appropriate policy support [36][37] - Long-term prospects for the real estate sector remain tied to urbanization and demographic trends, despite current challenges [38] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to stabilize around the 4,000-point mark, transitioning from a psychological barrier to a support level as market dynamics shift towards institutional investors [40][41] - The AI and technology sectors are seen as key drivers of market performance, with a focus on domestic innovation and application in various industries [42][43]

责任编辑：杨赐 新浪科技讯 12月31日上午消息，MiniMax今日启动招股。招股书显示，MiniMax本次IPO拟发行25， 389，220股，定价区间为151至165港元/股，在不考虑发售量调整权及超额配股权行使的情况下，发行 估值将介于461.23亿港元至503.99亿港元之间，预计将于1月9日登陆港股资本市场。 新浪科技讯 12月31日上午消息，MiniMax今日启动招股。招股书显示，MiniMax本次IPO拟发行25， 389，220股，定价区间为151至165港元/股，在不考虑发售量调整权及超额配股权行使的情况下，发行 估值将介于461.23亿港元至503.99亿港元之间，预计将于1月9日登陆港股资本市场。 值得注意的是，MiniMax此次引入了包括Aspex、Eastspring、Mirae Asset、阿里巴巴及易方达在内的14 家基石投资者，认购总额约27.23亿港元。投资者类型横跨国际长线、头部科技、中资长线及产业战略 等多个维度，在近期港股市场，如此多元的顶级资本罕见地协同一致，形成了强有力的价值背书。（文 猛） 值得注意的是，MiniMax此次引入了包括Aspex、Eastspring ...