贵金属矿业
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供应链争夺战升级 白银与钯金将面临高额关税!
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-28 07:26
Group 1 - The US Geological Survey (USGS) has proposed adding silver and five other minerals to the critical minerals list for 2025, pending review under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs on goods deemed essential for national security [1] - The six minerals proposed for inclusion are copper, potash, silicon, silver, lead, and rhenium, while arsenic and tellurium may be removed from the list [1] - Citigroup analysts noted that if silver is included in the critical minerals list, it could face a potential Section 232 tariff investigation, with import tariffs possibly reaching up to 50% [1] Group 2 - Amplify ETFs' product development VP Nate Miller indicated that the surge in investment demand for silver has significantly boosted the silver market [2] - Miller highlighted two key factors driving strong support for silver this year: its dual role as both an industrial and monetary metal [2] - The current silver price is reported at $38.83 per ounce, with a potential upward target of $50 to $52 per ounce if the gold-silver ratio normalizes [2]
铂金、钯金基础知识及产业链介绍
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated and growth - restricted. Their prices depend on real supply - demand patterns and speculative activities. The demand for both has declined from historical highs, with platinum's demand being slightly better than palladium's in recent years. In 2025, there will be a supply - demand gap for platinum and a surplus for palladium. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen, while palladium may continue to face pressure [94][96][98]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basic Concepts - Platinum is a rare noble metal with high stability, corrosion resistance, and good ductility. It is often associated with other metals in the platinum - group. Palladium, discovered in 1803, has unique physical and chemical properties, high catalytic activity, and is widely used in environmental protection, medical treatment, and other fields. After heat treatment, it becomes soft and malleable, and can be slowly dissolved in certain acids [4][8]. - Palladium's various properties make it widely used in different fields. It is used as a catalyst in the chemical industry, for hydrogen storage and sensing, in electronic components, and forms alloys for jewelry and other industrial applications [10]. 3.2 Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Platinum Supply - The platinum industry chain includes upstream mines, where low - grade ores are refined into products like platinum ingots and sponge platinum. In the middle - stream, it is used to make catalysts, compounds, electrodes, etc. Downstream applications are in jewelry, investment, the automotive industry, and the hydrogen industry [13]. - The supply of platinum is mainly from mines, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global reserves. Recycling is also an important source, which consists of scrap - car catalyst recycling, jewelry recycling, and industrial recycling. In 2024, the recycling supply was 47.6 tons, up 1% from 2023, and is expected to reach 48.9 tons in 2025. However, global platinum supply is still restricted, with a projected 4% decline in 2025 [15][17][21]. 3.2.2 Platinum Demand - In the past five years, the automotive sector has had the highest demand for platinum (37%), followed by industry (31%), jewelry (26%), and investment (6%). The automotive demand for platinum depends on factors such as the number of vehicles, vehicle size, and power - system trends. Global automotive platinum demand decreased by 2% in 2024 to 96.6 tons and is expected to decline by another 2% in 2025 to 94.9 tons [24]. - In the industrial field, platinum is used in five main areas: chemical (28% average weight in the past five years), glass (24%), medical (12%), petroleum (7%), and electronics (5%). The demand from the fixed - hydrogen and other areas is expected to grow by 35% in 2025 to 1.8 tons, while the other industrial demand is expected to slightly decline by 1% to 17.7 tons [26][31][39]. - Platinum jewelry demand is relatively stable in the past 10 years, with different trends in different regions. Its demand is driven by economic growth, social changes, consumption habits, and price changes [42][43]. - Platinum investment demand includes physical and virtual forms. Chinese physical investment demand has been increasing, and European platinum ETFs have the largest持仓 [65][66]. 3.2.3 Palladium Supply - The palladium industry chain involves upstream mining and smelting, mainly in South Africa and Russia, mid - stream processing into compounds and catalysts, and downstream recycling. The main palladium deposits are in South Africa, Russia, etc. The global annual palladium production is about 190 tons, with South Africa and Russia accounting for 38.1% and 39.6% respectively. In 2024, the global palladium recycling volume was about 83.35 tons, accounting for 30.6% of the total supply [44][49][52]. 3.2.4 Palladium Demand - In 2024, the main demand for palladium was from automotive catalysts (82.3%), followed by chemical (5.4%), dental (1.8%), etc. It is mainly used in gasoline - powered vehicle catalysts to reduce emissions, with about 80% used in automotive three - way catalysts. China, Europe, Japan, and North America are major demand regions [55][56]. - Palladium's industrial demand has declined from 25% in 2010 to about 11% currently. It is widely used in various industrial fields and is crucial for the hydrogen industry [57]. - Palladium jewelry demand is low, accounting for about 0.8% of the total demand. Its investment demand includes bars, coins, and ETFs, but the scale of the well - known palladium ETF has decreased significantly [61][68]. 3.3 Interpretation of Platinum and Palladium Futures Contracts (Draft for Soliciting Opinions) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has released a draft for platinum and palladium futures contracts. The draft has adjusted some details compared to the previous design. The price limits and margin requirements are set higher than those of gold and silver futures to cover price fluctuations [70][71]. - The futures use a three - stage gradient margin system. The price limit for normal months is 4%, and for delivery months, it is 6% [74][77]. - The exchange innovatively includes ingots, sponge, and powder forms of platinum and palladium in the delivery. The delivery unit is 1000 grams per hand. The delivery place may be concentrated in mining areas, recycling areas, and southeastern coastal cities [84][85][90]. 3.4 Future Outlook - The supply of platinum and palladium is concentrated and growth - restricted. The demand has declined from historical highs. In 2025, platinum will have a supply - demand gap, while palladium will have a surplus. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen, and palladium may face pressure [94][96][98].
美股异动 | 鲍威尔放鸽提振贵金属价格 新太平洋金属(NEWP.US)收涨近8%
智通财经网· 2025-08-25 03:23
Group 1 - New Pacific Metals (NEWP.US) experienced a 7.59% increase in stock price, closing at $1.70, with a year-to-date gain of 44% [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole conference has increased expectations for a rate cut in September from 75% to 90% [1] - UBS has raised its gold price target for June 2024 by $200 to $3,700 per ounce, anticipating continued upward momentum driven by U.S. factors [1] Group 2 - New Pacific Metals focuses on investment, exploration, and development of precious metal resources in South America and North America [1] - The company has significant mining projects in Bolivia, including Carangas silver-gold mine, flagship Silver Sand silver mine, and Silverstrike silver-gold mine [1] - The upcoming presidential transition in Bolivia is expected to lead to more open and free market policies for mineral resources, which could positively impact the future performance of lithium and silver [1]
铂钯上市专题系列(二):铂金生产供应情况
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 08:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming listing of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will further diversify and internationalize China's futures market, and provide new risk management tools and investment opportunities for investors [1] - In 2025, the total global platinum supply is expected to decrease by 4% year - on - year to 218 tons, mainly due to a 6% decline in mineral supply, while the increase in recycled supply is limited [3] - The global platinum mineral supply has been contracting since 2016, mainly affected by power shortages, maintenance delays, rising costs, and reduced capital expenditure. The current price - cost inversion has further constrained supply [9][10] - The recycling supply of platinum is an important supplement, but it has shown price rigidity in the short - to - medium term, and its volume is mainly driven by vehicle scrapping cycles [15] 3. Summary by Directory I. Overall Situation of Platinum Production and Supply - Platinum exists in the market mainly as platinum ingots (purity usually 99.95%, used for investment and reserves) and sponge platinum (used in industries). The global platinum supply comes from mining and recycling, and has been relatively stable in recent years [2] - In 2024, the global total platinum supply was 730,000 ounces (about 227 tons), a 2.4% year - on - year increase. It is predicted that in 2025, the total supply will drop to 218 tons (about 700,000 ounces), with a 6% decline in mineral supply and a slight increase in recycling supply [2][3] II. Mineral Supply - Platinum is often a by - product in mining, and its refining process is complex. Global platinum reserves are highly concentrated, with South Africa accounting for 88.73% [5] - The top four mining oligarchs controlled 88% of the global platinum production in 2024, forming a global monopoly system [6] - The global platinum mineral supply has been contracting since 2016, mainly due to power shortages, maintenance delays, rising costs, and reduced capital expenditure. The price - cost inversion has further constrained supply [9][10] - Key platinum mines include the Bushveld Complex in South Africa, the Great Dyke in Zimbabwe, the Norilsk Nickel Mine in Russia, and the Stillwater and East Boulder Mines in the US [12][13] III. Recycling Supply - Recycled platinum accounts for 20% - 30% of the total global supply, with North America and Europe leading the market. The industry is developing more advanced recycling technologies [15] - The supply of recycled platinum has shown price rigidity in the short - to - medium term, and its volume is mainly driven by vehicle scrapping cycles. It has declined since 2020 [15]
美联储降息临近?美股狂欢,纳指大涨近2%,中国金龙指数跟涨1.33%!科技股沸腾,贵金属上涨!原油收跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 22:31
Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.34%, Nasdaq up 1.95%, and S&P 500 up 1.47% [1] - Popular tech stocks saw significant gains, including Nvidia, Google, Meta, and Broadcom rising over 3%, while Tesla and Microsoft increased by over 2% [1] Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Precious metals and cryptocurrencies experienced notable increases, with gold rising over 10% and companies like American Gold and Americas Silver up over 8% [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.85% to $3428.6 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.4% to $37.445 per ounce [7] Bond Market Movements - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2.35 basis points to 4.1923%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 0.65 basis points to 3.6752% [5] Currency Exchange Rates - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) traded at 7.1841 against the U.S. dollar, appreciating by 97 points from the previous Friday [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Analysts suggest that the U.S. labor market is losing momentum, indicating that the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to lower interest rates, potentially more than once [9] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler may increase the likelihood of earlier rate cuts by the board [9]
鲍威尔讲话打压降息预期 黄金跳水 纽约铜大跌18%
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-30 23:19
Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - The Fed's statement indicated a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the first half of the year, suggesting potential grounds for future rate cuts if the trend continues [1] - Two Fed governors voted against the rate decision, reflecting external pressures, particularly from President Trump, who advocated for lower rates [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Fed Chair Powell stated it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in September, emphasizing the need for more economic information before making a decision [2] - Experts predict that the Fed may not cut rates until December, as inflation is expected to rise and economic growth to slow, indicating a cautious approach [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices fell over 1.5%, dropping below $1,280 per ounce, with significant declines in U.S. gold and silver companies [4] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Apple declining more than 1% [5] - Several tech companies reported strong earnings, with Qualcomm's adjusted net profit at $2.67 billion (up 25%), Microsoft's net profit at $27.2 billion (up 24%), and META's net profit at $18.34 billion (up 36%) [6] Group 4: Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.82%, with many Chinese concept stocks experiencing declines, including NIO and New Oriental dropping over 4% [7] Group 5: Copper Market - Following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, New York copper prices plummeted over 18% [8]
研选行业丨地表库存仅剩100吨!这种贵金属价格强势复苏,供需趋紧下相关龙头迎价值重估
第一财经· 2025-07-24 01:43
Group 1: Platinum Market Insights - The surface inventory of platinum is only 100 tons, and it is expected to be depleted by 2028, leading to a strong price recovery due to tightening supply and demand dynamics [2][3] - Since 2011, platinum prices have been in a downward trend, but recent increases in jewelry and investment demand, along with a recovery in automotive demand, suggest a potential upward cycle for prices and consumption [2][4] - Key domestic downstream companies to watch include specific listed firms, while overseas mining producers are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][4] Group 2: 3D Printing Market Opportunities - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is projected to reach $7.1 billion by 2028, driven by AI empowerment and supply chain cost reductions [6] - Consumer-grade 3D printers are designed for individual users and small businesses, with applications in various sectors such as consumer goods, education, and cultural creativity [6][8] - Investment opportunities in core components and materials for 3D printing are emphasized, with specific companies recommended for attention in the hardware, scanning, and materials sectors [7][9]
铂钯系列(二):全球铂金供需格局
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 11:52
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global platinum supply is highly concentrated with low elasticity, and the output of major producers is insufficient. In 2024, the global platinum output declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2025. The demand for platinum in different regions and fields varies, and the global platinum market has a supply - demand gap [1][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Global Platinum Supply Pattern - **Supply Concentration**: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output decreased by 4% year - on - year to 120 tons, accounting for 71% of the global total. Zimbabwe and Russia each accounted for 11%, and other countries accounted for 8% [1] - **Supply Constraints**: Long - term trends, sub - optimal new project implementation, mine depletion, and shutdowns have continuously restricted supply, resulting in insufficient output elasticity of major global platinum producers. In 2024, factors such as power outages in Brazil and Zimbabwe, restructuring in North America, and early production decline in Canada dragged down platinum output [1] - **Production and Recycling in 2024**: The global platinum output in 2024 was 195.9 tons. The global mined platinum volume decreased by 567 kg year - on - year to 155.9 tons, and the global recycled platinum accounted for 20.4%, with the recycling volume increasing by 3% year - on - year to 39.97 tons [4] - **Production Forecast for 2025**: It is expected that the global mined platinum volume will decline by 4% year - on - year to 150.1 tons in 2025 due to the decline in South African output and the restructuring of Stillwater in North America. The catalyst recycling volume is expected to improve significantly, but the US tariff on cars may drag down the US platinum recycling volume [4] 1.2 Platinum Global Balance - **Consumption Regions and Fields**: The main consumption regions of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. China's demand accounts for 26% of the global total, with industrial demand being the largest. Western Europe and North America account for 20% and 18% respectively, with automotive catalyst demand being the largest. Japan accounts for 9%, mainly in automotive catalysts and jewelry. India's industrial demand is small, but its automotive catalyst and jewelry demand are increasing, and it may exceed Japan in the future [6] - **Demand in 2024**: In 2024, the global demand for platinum group metals decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons. Automotive industry demand decreased by 3% to 63.4 tons, jewelry demand decreased slightly by 0.3 tons to 38.3 tons, industrial demand remained flat at 63.4 tons, and hydrogen energy demand increased slightly by 0.3 tons to 2 tons, accounting for 1% [11] - **Global Platinum Balance Table**: The table shows the changes in mine production, recycling, total demand, and supply - demand balance of global platinum from 2017 to 2025f. The supply gap is expected to widen in 2025 [13]
南非统计局:南非贵金属产量5月同比下降0.6%;南非5月矿业总产出同比下降0.2%,市场预期下降5.4%。
news flash· 2025-07-15 09:35
Core Insights - South Africa's precious metal production decreased by 0.6% year-on-year in May [1] - The total mining output in South Africa fell by 0.2% year-on-year in May, which was better than the market expectation of a 5.4% decline [1]
金银涨势动人,33吨金银精矿在墨西哥被劫
news flash· 2025-07-11 06:38
Group 1 - The article highlights a significant robbery in Mexico where armed thieves hijacked a truck carrying 33 tons of gold and silver concentrate, belonging to Grupo Minero Bacis [1] - Although the truck was recovered, the trailer containing the precious metals remains missing, indicating a serious security issue in the region [1] - The incident underscores a rising trend in highway robberies in Mexico, with a robbery occurring every 50 minutes, reflecting broader concerns about safety and crime in the mining sector [1] Group 2 - The backdrop of this robbery is the increasing prices of gold and silver driven by global economic uncertainty, which may attract more criminal activity targeting precious metals [1] - Grupo Minero Bacis, as a mining company, faces heightened risks associated with transporting valuable resources in a volatile security environment [1]