行 轻工制造 2025 年 10 月 19 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 出口把握阿尔法，新消费情绪改善关注优质个护 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】10 月 17 日特朗普释放缓和对华关税立场信号，对中国商品征 收的高额关税不会长期存在，贸易冲突缓和有望带动出口链情绪好转，精 选强阿尔法。自由点品牌官宣演员金靖担任品牌代言人，近期新消费情绪 有所改善，建议关注优质个护龙头登康口腔、稳健医疗、百亚股份、豪悦 护理。 【周研究】本周发布出口链专题《从成本拆解看出口制造优势几何？》。 近期美国对全球关税政策基本确定，结合关税税率与成本结构分析，我们 认为家具制造回流美国难度大，越南等海外制造软体家具制造优势更为凸 显，持续看好海外产能布局充分的优质制造企业。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S021 ...

山鹰国际控股股份公司以子公司山鹰纸业（广东）有限公司100%股权和祥恒创意包装股份公司36.56% 股权作价297,704.35万元，出资设立芜湖胜鹰企业管理咨询合伙企业（有限合伙）。公司通过转让部分 合伙份额引入中国东方资产管理股份有限公司、财信吉祥人寿保险股份有限公司、信达资本管理有限公 司和淄博恒铁投资合伙企业（有限合伙）作为长期投资者，转让金额合计不超过7.475亿元。胜鹰企管 已完成工商注册登记。天津信鲁财为财信吉祥人寿等三方指定受让方，杭州光曜为中国东方资产指定受 让方。公司已与相关方签署合伙份额转让协议及合伙协议。截至公告日，公司已收到天津信鲁财 49,748.220833万元及杭州光曜25,000万元转让价款，合计74,748.220833万元，后续将办理工商变更登记 并持续履行信息披露义务。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 公司公告汇总：山鹰国际通过设立合伙企业引入长期投资者，已收到7.4748亿元转让价款。 公司公告汇总 截至2025年10月17日收盘，山鹰国际（600567）报收于1.79元，较 ...

公告明确，海关发现进口再生纸浆疑似固体废物的，可以委托专业机构开展属性鉴别。经鉴别为固体废 物的，依法实施退运处理；对违反相关法律法规的，依法追究法律责任。海关对进口再生纸浆实施风险 监测和风险评估，动态调整检验监测指标。 强化原料、生产、加工、仓储、运输等全要素全链条管理。 海关总署、国家发展和改革委员会、工业和信息化部、生态环境部、商务部、国家市场监督管理总局10 月17日发布关于规范进口再生纸浆监督监管有关事项的公告，以进一步规范进口再生纸浆监督监管，提 升质量安全水平，持续推动我国造纸行业绿色健康发展。 公告自今日（10月18日）起实施。公告明确，进口再生纸浆的境外生产原料，须为分类回收的纸、纸板 及纸制品。进口再生纸浆须符合GB/T 43393国家标准要求。 公告要求，进口再生纸浆生产、经营企业应严格落实产品质量安全主体责任，坚持依法诚信经营，自觉 履行社会责任，强化原料、生产、加工、仓储、运输等全要素全链条管理，维护我国生态安全和生物安 全。行业协会应加强行业指导，建立企业诚信档案，严格行业内部管理，加强行业自律，促进行业健康 发展。 海关总署等六部门发布公告 公告明确，进口再生纸浆的海关商品编号 ...

关于公司非独立董事辞职、选举职工董事的公告 证券代码：600235 证券简称：民丰特纸 公告编号：2025-032 民丰特种纸股份有限公司 二、关于选举职工董事的情况 为保障公司董事会正常运行，根据最新修订的《公司法》等法律法规和规范性文件及《公司章程》的相 关规定，公司于 2025年10月17日召开民丰特纸第十七届第四次职工代表大会，经与会代表认真审议并 投票表决，一致同意选举秦万民先生为公司第九届董事会职工董事，任期自本次职工代表大会审议通过 之日起至第九届董事会任期届满为止。 (一)提前离任的基本情况 ■ (二)离任对公司的影响 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》及相关法律法规，《公司章程》《民丰特纸董事离职管理制度》等有关 规定，谢静女士的辞职报告自2025年10月17日送达公司时生效，其辞任不会导致公司董事会成员低于法 定最低人数。谢静女士辞职后将不再担任公司任何职务。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 民丰特种纸股份有限公司（以下简称公司）董事会于2025年10月17日收到非独立董事谢静女士 ...

证券之星消息，10月17日造纸板块较上一交易日下跌1.15%，松炀资源领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3839.76，下跌1.95%。深证成指报收于12688.94，下跌3.04%。造纸板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日造纸板块主力资金净流出3.87亿元，游资资金净流出2844.79万元，散户资金净 流入4.16亿元。造纸板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002078 | 太阳纸业 | 14.23 | 0.57% | 16.06万 | | 2.29亿 | | 600793 | 宜宾纸业 | 23.84 | 0.51% | 4.48万 | | 1.06亿 | | 605500 | 标林包装 | 9.08 | -0.11% | 3.18万 | | 2889.22万 | | 600308 | 华泰股份 | 3.69 | -0.54% | 1 22.55万 | | 8407.86万 | | 600356 | 恒丰纸业 | 9.55 | -0.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's non-net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 38% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow [2][3] - For Q1-3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 343 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.77%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 91 million yuan, up 28.88% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for Q1-3 2025 was 40.37%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 26.16%, up 2.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 340.47 million yuan, 2024A: 407.95 million yuan, 2025E: 534.23 million yuan, 2026E: 675.31 million yuan, 2027E: 842.74 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.70%, 19.82%, 30.96%, 26.41%, and 24.79% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: 2023A: 81.63 million yuan, 2024A: 100.52 million yuan, 2025E: 133.98 million yuan, 2026E: 171.07 million yuan, 2027E: 215.64 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.74%, 23.14%, 33.28%, 27.69%, and 26.05% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: 2023A: 0.56 yuan, 2024A: 0.69 yuan, 2025E: 0.92 yuan, 2026E: 1.17 yuan, 2027E: 1.47 yuan [1] Operational Insights - The company has demonstrated strong innovation and research capabilities, breaking the monopoly of DuPont in the aramid paper sector, making China the second country capable of producing aramid paper [4] - The company has established a solid customer base, including well-known domestic and international enterprises such as AVIC Group, CRRC, ABB, Siemens, and Schneider Electric [4] - The report anticipates growth in demand for aramid insulation paper in various sectors, including new energy vehicles, wind power, photovoltaic power, and domestic large aircraft, which will drive future revenue growth [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - fruit sectors show different market trends. In the soft - commodity sector, sugar prices are under pressure but with limited downside, and pulp has high supply and limited demand improvement. In the fresh - fruit sector, apple prices are in high - level oscillation, and jujube prices are affected by various factors such as inventory and seasonality [3][10]. - For trading strategies, different approaches are recommended for each commodity. For example, for sugar, it is advisable to wait and consider selling wide - straddle options; for pulp, a bearish approach on rebounds is suggested [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh - fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use an interval trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a resistance range of 9000 - 9200. For Jujube 2601, consider short - selling at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a resistance range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft - commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, wait and see. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish approach in the interval, with a support range of 4700 - 4750 and a resistance range of 5100 - 5200. For Double - offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a resistance range of 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a resistance range of 13600 - 13700 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, fresh apple exports were about 68,400 tons, a 27.59% month - on - month increase but a 17.57% year - on - year decrease. As of September 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a 60,200 - ton week - on - week decrease and a 30,700 - ton year - on - year decrease [21]. - **Spot Market**: Prices in Shandong were stable with little trading, and new apples haven't been widely available due to rainfall. In Shaanxi, merchants were interested in high - quality apples. In other regions, prices in Gansu remained high, and prices in Liaoning varied by variety. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was lower than usual, and prices were stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses was 9167 tons, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease but a 93.89% year - on - year increase. Attention should be paid to the circulation of old jujubes and price changes before the new jujubes are harvested [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market In September, the forecasted arrival of duty - quota - free raw sugar was 460,000 tons, and the estimated sugar import was 600,000 - 700,000 tons. Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area was estimated to be 9.355219 million hectares, and the output was estimated to be 695.532937 million tons. Spot sugar prices in Yunnan and Guangxi decreased slightly [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The offer price of NBSK to Chinese traders was 650 US dollars per ton, but sellers refused to lower the price. A European supplier sold NBSK at 650 US dollars per ton. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remained at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. A major Brazilian supplier planned to increase the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to the Asian market by 20 US dollars per ton [29]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market In Shandong, the mainstream price of high - white double - offset paper was 4600 - 4750 yuan per ton, and that of some natural - white paper was 4300 - 4500 yuan per ton. In Guangdong, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4600 - 4700 yuan per ton. In Beijing, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton. In Tianjin, the price was 4900 - 5000 yuan per ton. Supply was relatively loose, and demand showed no improvement [30][31]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In September 2025, Vietnam's cotton textile output was 102 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year and 4.28% month - on - month increase; clothing output was 554 million pieces, a 13.52% year - on - year decrease but a 1.52% month - on - month increase. In August, Thailand's cotton import was about 9057 tons, a 43.5% month - on - month decrease but a 1.2% year - on - year increase [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8510, down 155 or 1.79%. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11360, up 255 or 2.30%. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5408, up 5 or 0.09%. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4856, unchanged. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13320, up 50 or 0.38% [33]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - Apples were priced at 3.75 yuan per jin, unchanged month - on - month but up 0.50 yuan year - on - year. - Jujubes were priced at 9.40 yuan per kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - Sugar was priced at 5790 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month but down 750 yuan year - on - year. - Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was priced at 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 700 yuan year - on - year. - Double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was priced at 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 450 yuan year - on - year. - Cotton was priced at 14664 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 849 yuan year - on - year [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis of basis situation was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apples, the 10 - 1 spread was 535, down 1 month - on - month and 97 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For jujubes, the 9 - 1 spread was 255, up 315 month - on - month and down 140 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 spread was 34, up 2 month - on - month and 19 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For cotton, the 1 - 5 spread was - 55, up 5 month - on - month and 25 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see temporarily [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning No specific analysis of futures positioning was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apples had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujubes had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Sugar had 8438 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month but down 1280 year - on - year. - Pulp had 227468 warehouse receipts, down 208 month - on - month and 176879 year - on - year. - Cotton had 2724 warehouse receipts, down 49 month - on - month and 1349 year - on - year [90]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific analysis of option - related data was provided other than relevant figures and sources.

Group 1 - The paper industry is experiencing a downturn, with several companies, including Songyang Resources, hitting their daily limit down [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as Dashengda, Jintaiyang, Qingshan Paper, Minshida, Jinghua Laser, and ST Chenming, are also seeing declines [1]

造纸板块日报 2025 年 10 月 15 日 造纸板块日报 大宗商品研究所 能源化工研发报告 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | 造纸日报 | | | 2025/10/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 胶版印刷纸现货 | | | 纸浆现货 | | | | | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | | 华东本白双胶纸 | 4350 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 针叶浆山东：银星 | 5500 | 0.00% | -0.36% | | 华南本白双胶纸 | 4400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 针叶浆山东：俄针牌 | 5000 | 0.00% | -0.99% | | 华北本白双胶纸 | 4400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 阔叶浆山东：金鱼 | 4250 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 华东高白双胶纸 | 4700 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 化机浆山东：昆河 | 3700 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Volatile [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [3] - CSI 300: Volatile [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Bullish volatility [4] - Silver: Bullish volatility [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Volatile and slightly bearish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [7] - PTA: Volatile [7] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black sector is affected by trade frictions, and the iron ore market focuses on supply and steel demand; coking coal and coke face production and demand adjustments; steel products have supply and demand contradictions and are expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [2] - The stock index futures/options market has improved bullish sentiment but still requires risk reduction; the bond market shows a slight upward trend; the gold and silver markets are expected to be bullish due to various factors [3][4] - The forestry and light industry products have different trends, with logs likely to return to range-bound, pulp at the bottom, and paper products showing various fluctuations [6] - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, and is expected to continue wide-range volatility; the meal market is under supply pressure and is expected to be bearish [6] - The agricultural products market, such as live pigs, has supply and demand imbalances and is expected to be volatile; the rubber market is affected by weather and demand, and is expected to be wide-range volatile [7] - The chemical products market, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, is affected by factors such as oil prices and supply and demand, and has different trends [7][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Trade frictions and supply issues affect the market. Steel mill profits are high, and iron ore prices are expected to be volatile. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - Coking coal and coke: Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower, but Mongolian coal imports are at a record high. Coke demand is strong, and the first round of price increases has been implemented, but the second round has basically failed. Pay attention to low-buying opportunities [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebar has a large supply pressure, and the key is the demand recovery in October. High supply and inventory accumulation bring pressure, and prices need to match rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - Glass: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, with increased production capacity utilization and inventory accumulation. Real estate completion drags down demand, and pay attention to policy and demand recovery [2] - Soda ash: The supply and demand are under pressure, and the price follows the oil price. The PTA supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening, and the price follows the cost [7][9] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk preference and control positions [3][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The bond market shows a slight upward trend, and long positions can be held lightly [4] - Gold and silver: Affected by factors such as interest rates, geopolitics, and inflation, the pricing mechanism is changing, and the market is expected to be bullish [4] Forestry and Light Industry Products - Logs: The port inventory is increasing, and the cost support is strengthening. After the holiday, the supply may increase, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price is expected to return to range-bound [6] - Pulp: The spot price is stable, the cost support is weakening, and the demand improvement is uncertain. The price is expected to be at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. The price is expected to be volatile [6] Oil and Fat and Meal Products - Oil and fat: Affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, the market is expected to continue wide-range volatility. Pay attention to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6] - Meal: Affected by factors such as global trade and supply and demand, the market is under supply pressure and is expected to be bearish. Pay attention to Brazilian soybean sowing and soybean imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand may decline, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish [7] - Rubber: Affected by weather and demand, the production is affected, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be wide-range volatile [7] Chemical Products - PX: The supply and demand are under pressure, and the price follows the oil price. The PXN spread is suppressed [7] - PTA: The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the price follows the cost [7][9] - MEG: The port inventory is increasing, the supply pressure is increasing, and the price support may be weakened [9] - PR: The market rebounds weakly and may be volatile and bearish [9] - PF: The downstream demand is good, but the international oil price is weak, and the price may be bearish [9]