Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bearish [3] - Option strategy: Sell calls [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is in the off - season of demand, with no obvious signs of recovery in downstream demand after the holiday and a strong wait - and - see attitude. Therefore, the current operation should focus on selling hedges on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$21.98/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, while the SMM Guangdong and Henan lead spot prices increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,025 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,325 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Market**: On June 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,680 yuan/ton, closed at 16,695 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,915 lots, a decrease of 4,095 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 50,484 lots, a decrease of 2,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,765 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,645 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,720 yuan/ton, closed at 16,650 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week. As of June 5, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - **Absolute Price**: Due to the off - season of lead demand and no obvious improvement in downstream demand after the holiday, the operation strategy is to sell hedges on rallies [3]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell call options [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price strategy is cautiously bearish, and the option strategy is to sell calls [3][4] Core View - Due to the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, weak downstream stocking willingness, and rising inventory, combined with the relatively tight lead ore resources, the lead price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the future. It is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging, with the selling range above 16,850 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 22.17 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16375 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to - 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16425 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16400 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16450 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10125 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10000 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10325 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 3, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28541 lots, a decrease of 24390 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 55547 lots, an increase of 2217 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16685 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16525 yuan/ton. In the night session, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16575 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16635 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On June 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.0 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 283150 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, and downstream demand is weak. Therefore, it is recommended to use sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell calls [3] Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 17.34 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to - 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,750 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,075 lots, an increase of 4,378 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 45,996 lots, a decrease of 3,025 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,825 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,705 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,700 yuan/ton and closed at 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, some rigid demand transactions occurred with suppliers offering discounts of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 40 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and some suppliers offered discounts of 60 - 50 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, suppliers offered premiums of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead or discounts of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. The lead price was consolidating, and due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream inventory - building intention was low, resulting in light trading in the spot market [2] Inventory - On May 29, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 49,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 29, the LME lead inventory was 288,550 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 20.67 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 150 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,790 yuan/ton, closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,697 lots, a decrease of 4,123 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,021 lots, an increase of 2,957 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,680 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,780 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, downstream enterprises showed a wait - and - see attitude. Near the end of the month and with the start of new monthly long - term orders, the trading volume in the spot market decreased [2] Inventory - On May 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 28, the LME lead inventory was 291,050 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell call options [3][4]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/28 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/21 265 758 108142 41218 -527.73 57.47 94.0 110.0 14.01 168825 66000 2025/05/22 125 495 108142 31754 -701.34 264.30 92.0 108.0 15.88 166525 68650 2025/05/23 160 455 98671 33406 -442.58 364.60 92.0 104.0 31.14 164725 72075 2025/05/26 180 629 98671 32833 - 46.37 93.0 105.0 - - - 2025/05/27 140 544 98671 34961 -822.25 261.41 94.0 109.0 40.08 162150 76350 变化 -40 -85 0 2128 - 215.04 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has shown a slight increase, but it is expected to lack sustained performance. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.65/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton, and 10,250 yuan/ton respectively [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered discounts of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or 150 - 140 yuan/ton to SHFE lead contracts 2506/2507 for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales, and holders offered discounts of 40 - 30 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, holders offered premiums of 50 - 75 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead [2] Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,760 yuan/ton and closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,820 lots, an increase of 33 lots, and the open interest was 46,064 lots, an increase of 1,732 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,850 yuan/ton and a low of 16,745 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,765 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On May 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 292,375 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - The option strategy is to sell call options [4]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/26 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/19 430 816 108142 61913 -103.15 218.98 95.0 111.0 15.52 174325 67550 2025/05/20 390 979 108142 45738 -23.85 170.67 94.0 110.0 3.16 170750 66450 2025/05/21 265 758 108142 41218 -527.73 57.47 94.0 110.0 14.01 168825 66000 2025/05/22 125 495 108142 31754 -701.34 264.30 92.0 108.0 15.88 166525 68650 2025/05/23 160 455 108142 33406 -442.58 364.60 92.0 104.0 31.14 164725 72075 变化 35 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The current lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. However, the energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract is expected to be in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Spot Market - On May 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -26.12 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells all decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On May 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 42,980 lots, an increase of 22,116 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 45,301 lots, an increase of 28,537 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,895 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,670 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,685 yuan/ton and closed at 16,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On May 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 22, the LME lead inventory was 295,825 tons, an increase of 13,700 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] Core View - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, but smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver ore is also low. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. However, due to the outstanding performance of the energy storage battery sector, supported by the demand from mobile base stations and data centers, the operating rates of related enterprises are generally 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a sideways trading mindset, with the Pb2507 contract ranging from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Spot Market - On May 21, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -24.07 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium/discount changed by -75 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium/discount changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,500 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 21, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,900 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 20,864 lots, a decrease of 3,522 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 16,764 lots, a decrease of 6,034 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 16,935 yuan/ton and a low of 16,830 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,835 yuan/ton, a 0.33% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On May 21, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 21, the LME lead inventory was 282,125 tons, an increase of 36,375 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Market Transaction - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted at a discount of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead, or at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Some smelters mentioned factors such as raw material costs and were reluctant to sell at low prices. Traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, suppliers' ex-factory supplies were sold at a premium of 50 - 75 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for rigid demand transactions. The lead price rebounded, and downstream enterprises still mainly purchased for rigid demand. Coupled with the decrease in the shipments of secondary lead smelters, the regional transactions in the spot market were acceptable [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core Viewpoints - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver ore is also low. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2506 contract is in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$4.45/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 75 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 75 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,575 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,885 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, changing by -10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 26,893 lots, changing by -5,591 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 27,388 lots, changing by -1,174 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,985 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,835 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,815 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Market Conditions - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price fell by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures fluctuated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for closing deals. As the lead price continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was dull [2] Inventory - On May 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, changing by 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 246,350 tons, changing by -1,825 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]