Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply is converging and demand is gradually improving, with positive industry expectations and orderly inventory reduction. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,670 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; LME 3 - month copper was 10,652 dollars/ton, down 11.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper was 217,024 lots, down 10,525 lots. The futures' top 20 open interest of Shanghai copper was - 27,120 lots, down 1,478 lots. LME copper inventory was 133,900 tons, up 300 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 116,140 tons, up 11,348 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 10,925 tons, down 200 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 42,561 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 85,335 yuan/ton, down 1,255 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 85,430 yuan/ton, down 1,215 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis was - 335 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread was - 17.2 dollars/ton, down. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, down. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 30.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.55 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi was 75,720 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 76,420 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan. The rough copper processing fee in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in the north, it was 900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. 产业情况 - The refined copper output was 1.266 million tons, down 35,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social copper inventory was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 59,190 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 72,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 下游及应用 - The copper product output was 2.232 million tons, up 10,000 tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 23.66%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 15.6%, down 0.0216%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was - 0.13, down. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.39%, up 0.0007%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.28, up 0.0007 [2]. Industry News - In October, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. Tesla China's shipments were 61,497, a 9.9% year - on - year decline and a 32.3% month - on - month decline. The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government "shutdown" entered the 35th day. The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, and it announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on November 5. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, emphasizing expanding mutual investment and cooperation in various fields [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The continuous government shutdown affects liquidity; silver shows an oscillating rebound [2][5]. - Copper: Concerns about the US economy cause prices to decline [2][9]. - Zinc: Experiences wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - Lead: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices oscillating [2][16]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18]. - Aluminum: Has support at the lower level; alumina's oversupply pattern remains unchanged; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel: Smelting - end inventory accumulation suppresses, while ore - end uncertainties provide support; stainless - steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level [2][23]. - Lithium carbonate: Weakly oscillates due to复产 expectations and off - season expectations [2][26]. - Industrial silicon: With continuous de - stocking of warehouse receipts, it has strong bottom support; polysilicon: Attention should be paid to this week's information [2][29]. - Iron ore: Repeats at a high level [2][32]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Weakly oscillate due to sector sentiment disturbances [2][37]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Experience wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [2][41]. - Coke and coking coal: Repeat at a high level [2][44]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly [2][46]. - p - Xylene: Aromatic blending oil supports valuation, with a high - level oscillating market; PTA: With fair demand and still existing supply pressure, it has a high - level oscillating market; MEG: Has relatively large supply pressure and a weakening trend [2][50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Gold prices decline, with沪金2512 closing at 915.58 yuan with a daily decline of 0.76%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing; silver shows an oscillating rebound, with沪银2512 closing at 11238 yuan with a daily decline of 1.90%, and成交 increasing while持仓 slightly increasing [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Wall Street warns of inflation risks, and the US government shutdown may break records [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: Copper prices fall, with沪铜主力合约 closing at 85740 yuan with a daily decline of 1.79%, and成交 increasing while持仓 decreasing [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US government shutdown and the fate of Trump's tariffs are uncertain; a new copper smelter in Chile gets environmental approval, and an Indonesian company gets a copper concentrate export quota [9][11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: Zinc prices oscillate widely, with沪锌主力 closing at 22670 yuan with a daily increase of 0.47%, and成交 increasing while持仓 decreasing [12]. - **News**: The Dutch government's interference in semiconductor enterprises and the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs [13][15]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lead prices oscillate, with沪铅主力 closing at 17415 yuan with a daily decline of 0.03%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [16]. - **News**: The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: Tin prices decline, with沪锡主力 closing at 283730 yuan with a daily decline of 0.71%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including inflation warnings and government - related news [18][19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: Aluminum prices have support at the lower level, with沪铝主力 closing at 21465 yuan with a decline; alumina prices decline, and cast aluminum alloy prices also decline [21]. - **Data**: Various data such as futures market, spot market, and inventory data are provided [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: Nickel prices decline, with沪镍主力 closing at 119700 yuan with a decline; stainless - steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level, with stainless - steel主力 closing at 12545 yuan with a decline [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian mining company issues and possible US tariffs on China [23][25]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lithium carbonate prices weakly oscillate, with 2511合约 closing at 77160 yuan with a decline, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM lithium carbonate price index decline and Samsung SDI's supply agreement with Tesla [26][27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Trading Volume**: Industrial silicon prices decline, with Si2601 closing at 8885 yuan with a decline; polysilicon prices decline, with PS2601 closing at 53715 yuan with a decline [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**:纤纳光电's release of a large - size perovskite photovoltaic commercial component [29][31]. Iron Ore - **Price and Trading Volume**: Iron ore prices repeat at a high level, with the futures closing at 775.5 yuan with a decline, and持仓 increasing [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [32][33]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Trading Volume**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices weakly oscillate, with RB2601 closing at 3044 yuan with a decline and HC2601 closing at 3265 yuan with a decline [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production data, government policies on commercial real estate, and national development planning related to the steel industry [37][40]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Trading Volume**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices oscillate widely, with硅铁2601 closing at 5510 yuan with a decline and锰硅2601 closing at 5754 yuan with a decline [41]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Exchange policy adjustments, regional price quotes, and power price changes [41][43]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Trading Volume**: Coke and coking coal prices repeat at a high level, with JM2601 closing at 1253 yuan with a decline and J2601 closing at 1729 yuan with a decline [44]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [44][45]. Logs - **Price and Trading Volume**: Log prices oscillate repeatedly, with 2511合约 closing at 740.5 yuan with minor fluctuations, and成交 and持仓 showing significant changes [46][47]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [47][49]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market Conditions**: p - Xylene has a high - level oscillating market supported by aromatic blending oil; PTA has a high - level oscillating market with fair demand and supply pressure; MEG has a weakening trend due to large supply pressure [2][50].

江西铜业股份有限公司是一家主要从事铜和黄金的采选、冶炼与加工的中国公司。该公司主要通过两个 分部开展业务。铜相关产业分部主要从事铜及铜相关产品的生产和销售。金相关产业分部主要从事金及 金相关产品的生产和销售。该公司的产品主要包括阴极铜、黄金、白银、 硫酸、铜杆、铜管、铜箔、 硒、碲、铼和铋。该公司的产品主要应用于电气、电子、轻工、机械制造、建筑、交通、军工工业等行 业。该公司主要在国内市场开展业务。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 | 交易日 | 持股总数(股) | 持股变动(股) | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-04 | 3.43亿 | 135.20万 | 0.40% | | 2025-11-03 | 3.41亿 | 512.10万 | 1.52% | | 2025-10-31 | 3.36亿 | 191.10万 | 0.57% | | 2025-10-30 | 3.34亿 | 1318.10万 | 4.11% | | 2025-10-28 | 3.21亿 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][15] Core Views - The company's net profit for Q3 2025 decreased by 34% year-on-year, primarily due to asset impairment provisions of 450 million yuan, alongside a potential decline in smelting processing fees [1][6] - The company is the largest copper smelting company globally, with a smelting capacity of 2.2 million tons, benefiting from the clearing of production capacity in the industry [2][7] - The outlook for Q4 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations that adjustments in production and raw material structure will mitigate the impact of declining processing fees [1][6] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 45.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, while net profit was 330 million yuan, down 39.9% year-on-year [1][6] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 198.3 billion, 235.8 billion, and 238.3 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.9 billion, 6.5 billion, and 7.3 billion yuan [3][4][13] - The estimated diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.23, 0.50, and 0.57 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.2, 10.0, and 8.8 [3][4][13] Industry Context - The copper smelting industry is currently in a downturn, but there is a higher probability and potential for upward movement in the future due to the global clearing of smelting capacity [2][7] - The company primarily processes copper concentrate, making it more sensitive to fluctuations in processing fees compared to competitors that use a higher proportion of raw copper [2][7]

江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)现跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.91%，报30港元，成交额2.62亿港元。 消息面上，江西铜业此前发布业绩，公司第三季度营业收入1390.88亿元，同比增长14.09%；净利润 18.49亿元，同比增长35.2%；扣非归母净利润19.1亿元，同比增长94.7%。三季度公司毛利润40.8亿元， 环比下降11亿元，主因铜精矿冶炼加工费下滑。 国信证券发布研报称，全球铜精矿供应愈加紧张。当前长单加工费和现货加工费劈叉，现货加工费 在-40美元/吨以下，长单加工费在21美元/吨。冶炼厂全部使用长单盈利尚可，如果使用部分现货，冶炼 利润就会受到影响。对于江西铜业而言，2025年阴极铜产量目标237万吨，前三季度产量估计180万吨， 四季度生产压力不大。另外公司可以一定程度上灵活选择铜精矿、冷料的使用配比，预计四季度加工费 压力不会显著增加。 ...

Summary of Jiangxi Copper's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiangxi Copper - **Industry**: Copper Smelting and Mining Key Points Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Jiangxi Copper reported a revenue of **396.046 billion CNY**, a year-on-year increase of **0.98%** [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was **6.024 billion CNY**, reflecting a year-on-year growth of **20.85%** [3] - Despite a decline in Q3 profits compared to Q2, the overall operational plan remains on track without adjustments [3] Profitability Factors - Q3 profits decreased primarily due to rising copper prices impacting hedging operations, resulting in losses on the futures side while the spot market remained profitable [2][6] - The smelting business faced challenges due to low long-term contract prices, leading to a shift towards spot purchases, which affected profitability [2][7] - By Q3 2025, the smelting business contributed approximately **15%** to the overall profit, maintaining profitability despite a decline [8] Industry Dynamics - The copper smelting industry is currently experiencing limited effectiveness in anti-competitive measures, with the non-ferrous metals association advocating for reduced competition since 2024 [4] - The potential for production cuts among domestic copper smelting plants depends on whether TC long-term contract prices fall below cost levels or if there are unified policy directives from authorities [9] - The cancellation of long-term contract negotiations could lead to less transparent pricing, which is unfavorable for smelting plants [10] Production and Cost Management - Jiangxi Copper plans to maintain its copper concentrate production at **200,000 tons** without expansion, relying on cooperative mining rights or acquisitions for any increases [11] - The company’s overall production costs are below the industry average, with the Dexing copper mine being a significant contributor to low costs [12][13] Future Outlook - For 2025, profits are expected to be primarily driven by mining activities, accounting for about **85%** of total profits, while smelting will contribute around **15%** [14] - The profitability of the smelting segment is supported by rising sulfuric acid prices and stable metal prices, which help offset losses in processing operations [15] - The copper processing segment is projected to incur losses of approximately **200 million CNY** for the year, primarily due to losses in lithium battery copper foil business [15] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing copper mine acquisitions, focusing on projects in Central Asia, Africa, and South America, although no significant updates are available yet [4][25] - Jiangxi Copper is considering increasing its stake in Jiaxin International, currently holding nearly **30%** of the shares, with plans to achieve control by 2026 [21] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company has significant capital expenditure plans primarily for resource acquisitions, which may impact dividend distributions [28] - Dividends will be adjusted based on performance, with a preference for steady growth rather than substantial increases due to investment plans [29] Digital Management - Jiangxi Copper is working on implementing management assessment indicators set by the Jiangxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on market value management despite operational challenges [30]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Monthly Report - Date: November 3, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin - Industry: Copper Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Supply - The tightness in the ore end is spreading to the smelting end. The supply tension of copper mines persists, and the TC of copper mines is still falling. The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. - Demand - Short - term high copper prices inhibit downstream consumption, but there are still growth expectations for medium - term copper demand. - Macro - The bullish pattern in the macro - aspect remains. Sino - US monetary policy easing expectations will continue to benefit base metals, and copper prices will strengthen [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (82300, 89270), with the total open interest rising 11% to 594,000 lots. The spot market turned from premium to discount. Social inventories continued to accumulate slightly. LME copper and COMEX copper also showed certain trends [9]. - **Future Outlook**: The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. The short - term high copper price inhibits downstream consumption, but the medium - term copper demand is expected to grow. The macro - environment is favorable, and copper prices are expected to strengthen [11][13]. 3.2. Supply Side: The Tightness of Raw Materials is Spreading to the Smelting End - **Copper Concentrate Market**: The supply and demand of the global copper concentrate market remain tight. In 2025, the incremental production of global copper mines is expected to be reduced to 270,000 tons. The TC of imported copper concentrates continues to decline, and the domestic supply - demand tension of copper concentrates intensifies [14][15]. - **Cold Material Market**: The import volume of anode copper in China from January to September 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. The import volume of scrap copper increased. The supply - demand situation of the cold material market is expected to improve in November, and the processing fees are expected to rise steadily [18][19]. - **Smelter Production**: The production of smelters decreased. It is expected that the output of refined copper in China will continue to decline in November, and the output in December may increase slightly [21][22]. 3.3. Demand Side: The Peak Season of Copper Products is Not Prosperous, and the Terminal Demand Shows Resilience - **Domestic Copper Products Production**: From January to September, the output of domestic copper products increased year - on - year. In October, the operating rates of copper rods and their downstream industries were lower than expected, and the new orders were limited [27][29]. - **Automobile Market**: The production and sales of the automobile market have increased for five consecutive months, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached a record high [31][32]. - **Power System**: From January to September, the investment in the power grid increased year - on - year, and it is expected to further increase. The investment in the power source is expected to lag behind that in the power grid [37][38]. - **Home Appliance Industry**: From January to September 2025, the output and export growth rates of home appliances slowed down, and the global home appliance production and sales are expected to face downward pressure [41]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to September 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion growth rates of the real estate industry were negative, and it is expected that the real estate industry will not contribute to copper demand in the short term [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The price center of Shanghai Copper is expected to move up as the financial and commodity attributes of copper resonate. The copper market in October 2025 showed a collective upward trend, with both LME Copper and Shanghai Copper hitting record highs. The inflow of funds into the copper market and the repair of the copper - gold ratio drove the price increase. In the fourth quarter, the macro - level is favorable for copper prices, and the supply - demand pattern will turn to supply - weak and demand - strong, which is expected to push the price of Shanghai Copper to continuously set new historical highs [8][122]. Summary by Directory 1. Global Macro and Copper Market - **Domestic Macro Policy**: China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1015036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The manufacturing industry showed good growth, and the profit of industrial enterprises increased significantly. The manufacturing PMI is expected to break through the boom - bust line in the fourth quarter. The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of copper in future industries. The Fed's new round of interest - rate cuts provides conditions for China's macro - policy to exert force again in the fourth quarter, which is generally favorable for copper prices [13][14]. - **Domestic Re - inflation Logic**: Since the third quarter, the macro - level has shifted to trading the re - inflation logic. Although the real - estate data is weak, copper and the CSI 300 index continue to rise. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the re - inflation logic is expected to be further strengthened, which is beneficial to copper prices [17]. - **US Manufacturing**: The US manufacturing industry is expanding at an accelerating pace and is about to enter the inventory - replenishment cycle. The US has a large potential for copper demand growth in the future, and its market increment will be the main marginal variable affecting copper prices [23]. 2. Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine - end Supply**: Globally, the supply of copper mines has been loose since the second quarter but showed a turning point in September. The accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia will affect the supply. It is expected that the global copper concentrate output will increase by about 2% in 2025, with a gap of about 300,000 metal tons. The supply shortage at the mine end will be transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined copper output is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [28][35]. - **Refined Copper Production**: Although the supply of domestic copper concentrates has been tight this year, the output of electrolytic copper increased in the first half of the year and reached a historical high in the third quarter. However, in September, the output decreased due to factors such as increased maintenance and shortage of anode supply. It is expected that the output will continue to decline in the fourth quarter [37]. - **Scrap Copper and Anode Supply**: The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened, and the supply of scrap - produced anodes is tight, which restricts the output of electrolytic copper. The import of scrap copper from the US has decreased, and the production of scrap - copper rods has decreased, further affecting the supply of anodes [43]. - **Electrolytic Copper Trade**: In 2025, the export and import of electrolytic copper in China changed due to the US tariff policy. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products, the export of electrolytic copper decreased, and the import increased. It is expected that the export will further decline in the fourth quarter, while the import may continue to rise moderately [46]. 3. Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Domestic Copper Products Output**: The output of domestic copper products was strong in the first three quarters, and it is expected to reach a new high in the fourth quarter. The output of copper rods increased significantly, while the output of copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips showed different trends. The output of copper foils increased against the trend, and the demand for power grid investment remained high [52]. - **Specific Demand Sectors**: - **Copper Rods**: The output of electrolytic copper rods showed a strong performance in the peak season, and it is expected to reach a high in the fourth quarter, but the downstream cable enterprises'开工 has declined [55]. - **Copper Tubes**: The output of copper tubes decreased in the second quarter and reached the lowest in August. Although it increased slightly in September, the demand in October was not as expected, and the demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be neutral [58]. - **Copper Bars**: The demand for copper bars has been at a low level throughout the year, mainly due to the weak real - estate market and high copper prices. It is expected that the demand will decline year - on - year [61]. - **Copper Strips**: The output of copper strips was lower than the average in the third quarter, and it is expected to increase slightly in the fourth quarter [64]. - **Copper Foils**: The output of copper foils increased against the trend in the third quarter, and the peak - season characteristics were prominent in October. It is expected that the output will continue to increase [71]. - **Power Grid and Power Supply Investment**: The power grid investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the fourth quarter, while the power supply investment has slowed down, and the copper demand from the power supply end is expected to decline [74]. - **Real - Estate**: The real - estate investment has not improved significantly and remains a drag on copper consumption [77]. - **Household Appliances**: The demand for household appliances declined in the third quarter, and it is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter [80]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The output of new energy vehicles maintained high growth, and the future demand for AI - related copper will contribute to the incremental demand [83]. 4. Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the global copper inventory decreased, and the structural contradiction was prominent. In the third quarter, the inventory of the three major exchanges increased, mainly in the US market. In October, the total inventory of the three major exchanges continued to increase, and the structural contradiction was further highlighted. The high inventory in the US is difficult to flow out in the short term, while the non - US inventory is at a low level, which will drive the copper price up in the fourth quarter [88]. 5. Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global copper supply - demand structure is tighter than in 2024, and the supply gap is expected to exceed 300,000 metal tons. The refined copper was in a state of oversupply in the first half of the year, and it is expected to turn to supply falling short of demand in the fourth quarter. The global electrolytic copper output is expected to increase by about 3% in 2025, while the demand growth rate is expected to exceed 4%, and the excess scale is expected to narrow [92][95]. 6. Copper Position Analysis - In the third quarter, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options increased, and the net long position increased slightly. The long - position of LME copper investment funds increased in October, which is consistent with the upward trend of copper prices [101]. 7. Arbitrage Analysis - **Copper Shanghai - London Ratio**: In the first half of the year, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter. - **Copper - Zinc Ratio**: The copper - zinc ratio has continued to rise this year and reached a 10 - year high. It is expected to continue to rise in the remaining time of the year [106]. 8. Copper Option Market - The implied volatility of copper options has risen to the highest level this year, and it is suitable to sell options. It is recommended to construct a strategy of selling slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [111]. 9. Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - **Technical Analysis**: The monthly line of the Shanghai Copper main contract has broken through, and the short - term may have fluctuations near the 90,000 - yuan integer mark. Once it breaks through, it will open up a new upward space. - **Market Outlook and Suggestions**: The commodity and metal attributes of copper are expected to drive the price up. In the fourth quarter, the price is mainly driven by the supply side, and the demand is expected to be better than in the third quarter. It is recommended that downstream demanders conduct long - hedging operations in the far - month contracts, and consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or constructing a short - straddle strategy in the option market [120][122].

（原标题：智利国家矿业公司17亿美元铜冶炼厂环保改造项目通过环评） 智利《三点钟报》10月29日报道，智利环境评估委员会批准智利国家矿业公司 （Enami）投资17亿美元的帕伊波特铜冶炼厂（Paipote）现代化改造项目。该项目采用 中国研发的BBR+BCC熔炼转化技术，可将大气排放物捕获率提升至99%，年处理铜精 矿能力将达85万吨并生产24万吨阴极铜。此举不仅弥补了2023年科德尔科公司文塔纳 斯冶炼厂关闭后的国内产能缺口，更以低于同类项目平均审批周期45%的两年时间，实 现了对原有设施的环保升级与产能近三倍提升。根据环境评估局（SEA）的数据，2025 年智利环评平均时间为1288天。 ...

Group 1 - ENAMI, the Chilean state-owned mining company, has received environmental approval for a new $1.7 billion copper smelter [2] - The new smelter will process up to 850,000 tons of copper concentrate annually and produce up to 240,000 tons of cathode copper [2] - The modernization project aims to ensure profitability and sustainable operations, increasing capacity nearly threefold compared to the old smelter [2] Group 2 - China, as the largest copper consumer globally, faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - To assist the industry in addressing these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [3]