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中国大冶有色金属盘中涨超27% 铜冶炼行业或推行反内卷 铜冶炼产能价值有望重估
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 04:02
光大证券今年7月发布研报称,若在铜行业推行"反内卷"相关政策,或对新增铜冶炼产能做出限制、加 速中小冶炼产能退出,而铜下游消费仍会受益于新能源、电网改造等持续增长,冶炼产能过剩未来有望 缓解,冶炼企业后续盈利有望迎来改善。该行指出,若铜行业相关稳增长方案对冶炼产能做出限制,冶 炼资产价值有望重估,关注铜矿自给率较低而冶炼产能大的公司。 消息面上,中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河北雄安新区召开。会上,金川 集团、江铜集团、铜陵有色(000630)、中国铜业、大冶有色、五矿有色、紫金矿业(601899)等理事 单位代表围绕企业运行情况、铜精矿加工费、铜业分会下一步工作、企业存在的困难和相关建议进行研 讨交流。中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。 中国大冶有色金属(00661)盘中涨超27%,截至发稿,涨25.71%,报0.088港元,成交额1118.95万港元。 ...
港股异动 | 中国大冶有色金属(00661)盘中涨超27% 铜冶炼行业或推行反内卷 铜冶炼产能价值有望重估
智通财经网· 2025-09-26 03:56
智通财经APP获悉,中国大冶有色金属(00661)盘中涨超27%,截至发稿,涨25.71%,报0.088港元,成 交额1118.95万港元。 消息面上,中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河北雄安新区召开。会上,金川 集团、江铜集团、铜陵有色、中国铜业、大冶有色、五矿有色、紫金矿业等理事单位代表围绕企业运行 情况、铜精矿加工费、铜业分会下一步工作、企业存在的困难和相关建议进行研讨交流。中国有色金属 工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。 光大证券今年7月发布研报称,若在铜行业推行"反内卷"相关政策,或对新增铜冶炼产能做出限制、加 速中小冶炼产能退出,而铜下游消费仍会受益于新能源、电网改造等持续增长,冶炼产能过剩未来有望 缓解,冶炼企业后续盈利有望迎来改善。该行指出,若铜行业相关稳增长方案对冶炼产能做出限制,冶 炼资产价值有望重估,关注铜矿自给率较低而冶炼产能大的公司。 ...
冠通期货早盘速递-20250926
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US GDP in the second quarter had an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, a significant increase from the revised value of 3.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years, mainly due to unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decline in imports. The final value of the core PCE price index was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans to implement a diesel export ban on resellers until the end of the year and extend the export ban on gasoline resellers and producers until the end of the year, except for supplies under inter - governmental agreements [2]. - As of the week ending September 25, the production of rebar increased after a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 206.46 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand for rebar was 220.44 million tons, an increase of 10.41 million tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.96% [2]. - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, the daily price limit range for industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, for polysilicon futures contracts to 11%, and for lithium carbonate futures contracts to 10%. The margin standard for speculative trading will be adjusted to 12%, and for hedging trading to 11% [2]. - The "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry has led to continuously low processing fees for copper concentrates, which is the most prominent problem in the industry. Industry enterprises should oppose this kind of competition [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot News - US second - quarter GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3.8%, core PCE price index final value was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year [2]. - Rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, apparent demand increased, and social inventory decreased in the week ending September 25 [2]. - Adjustments to the daily price limit range and margin standards for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [2]. - The copper smelting industry's "involution - style" competition problem was discussed at a meeting, and enterprises were urged to oppose it [3]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai Copper, Silver, Asphalt, PVC [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials (2.78%), Precious metals (31.98%), Oilseeds and oils (10.17%), Soft commodities (2.41%), Non - ferrous metals (20.18%), Coal, coke, and steel (13.66%), Energy (2.95%), Chemicals (11.55%), Grains (1.06%), Agricultural and sideline products (3.26%) [4]. Plate Position - Information about the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days is presented, but specific change values are not clearly summarized here due to the complex data form [5]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.12%, and annual change of 14.96%; S&P 500 had a daily change of - 0.50%, monthly change of 2.75%, and annual change of 12.86%; and other equity indices had corresponding changes [7]. - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.19%, and annual change of - 1.21%; 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of 0.05% and an annual change of - 0.92%; 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of - 0.09% and an annual change of - 0.63% [7]. - **Commodities**: CRB Commodity Index had a monthly change of - 0.82% and an annual change of 1.06%; WTI crude oil had a daily change of 0.38%, monthly change of 1.06%, and annual change of - 10.00%; London spot gold had a daily change of 0.34%, monthly change of 8.38%, and annual change of 42.36% [7]. - **Others**: US Dollar Index had a daily change of 0.61%, monthly change of 0.02%, and annual change of - 9.79%; CBOE Volatility Index had a monthly change of 8.33% and an annual change of - 4.09% [7].
铜冶炼“反内卷”来了!江西铜业涨超4%,有色50ETF(159652)一度涨超2%,盘中资金实时净流入超2000万元!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 02:51
有色50ETF(159652)标的指数成分股涨跌不一,铜板块继续领涨,江西铜业涨超4%,紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等微涨,赣锋锂业、中国铝业、中国 黄金等回调。 数据显示,有色50ETF(159652)标的指数全面涵盖金、铜、稀土等金属板块,根据中信三级行业分布,其"含铜量"达30%,"金铜含量"领先全市 场同类指数! 截至10:05,成分股仅做展示使用,不构成投资建议 9月26日,临近长假,A股小幅震荡回调,有色板块早盘一度加速冲高,随后涨幅有所收窄。有色50ETF(159652)一度涨超2%,资金跑步进场, 截至10:15,有色50ETF(159652)实时获净申购1500万份,按盘中成交均价估算,实时净申购额已超2000万元! | | 有色50ETF 159652 | ਐ | | --- | --- | --- | | | | OH | | रोस | 56.04% 120日 | 61.53% | | 5日 | 4.15% 250日 | 75.59% | | 20日 | 5.13% 52周高 | 1.35 | | 60日 | 33.23% 52周低 | 0.75 | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 使口 | ...
新能源及有色金属日报:反内卷指向冶炼企业,但具体政策落实则仍有待观察-20250926
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:18
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 冶炼及进口方面,9月24日,中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河北雄安新区召开。铜冶 炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的问题是此次会议中代表反馈最集中的问题,也是行业当下最突 出的问题。中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长陈学森在总结讲话中强调,铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争对行业 影响大,损害了国家和行业利益,与高质量发展导向存在偏差,铜行业企业要坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。 与此前的反内卷不同,此次反内卷更多针对于精铜冶炼企业,但由于国内冶炼企业多为大型国企,因此具体反内 卷措施如果落实仍有待观察。 反内卷指向冶炼企业 但具体政策落实则仍有待观察 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情: 2025-09-25,沪铜主力合约开于 81000元/吨,收于 82710元/吨,较前一交易日收盘3.44%,昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 82290元/吨,收于 82380 元/吨,较昨日午后收盘下跌0.40%。 现货情况: 据 SMM 讯,昨日电解铜现货转为贴水,SMM1#铜均价82130-82880元/吨,主力合约贴水30元/吨(跌25元)。沪 铜早 ...
首席点评:公募基金规模首破36万亿
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:08
品种观点 报告日期:2025 年 9 月 26 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评:公募基金规模首破 36 万亿 中基协发布数据显示,我国公募基金规模首次突破 36 万亿元大关,截至 8 月底 达到 36.25 万亿元,单月猛增 1.18 万亿元。股债跷跷板效应下,债券基金规模 小幅下降 285 亿元。商务部发布公告,决定将扁平地球管理公司等 3 家美国实体 列入出口管制管控名单,决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投资壁垒调查。 美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8%,创近两年新高,PCE 物价指数 2.6%,显示 出通胀压力比之前评估的更为顽固。美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人, 为 7 月以来最低。市场对 10 月降息预期有所降温。美股三大指数三连跌,2 年 期美债收益率回升,黄金、原油价格上涨。 重点品种:股指、原油、玻璃 股指:美国三大指数下跌,上一交易日股指继续反弹,传媒板块领涨,纺织服饰 板块领跌,市场成交额 2.39 万亿元。资金方面,9 月 24 日融资余额增加 140.82 亿元至 24141.23 亿元。整体上而言 9 月走势相对 7 月和 8 月更为波折,我们认 为是进入了 ...
国新证券每日晨报-20250926
Guoxin Securities Co., Ltd· 2025-09-26 02:03
国内市场综述 窄幅震荡 走势分化 周四(9 月 25 日)大盘窄幅震荡,走势分化。截至收 盘,上证综指收于 3853.3 点,下跌 0.01%;深成指收 于 13445.9 点,上涨 0.67%;科创 50 上涨 1.24%;创 业板指上涨 1.58%,万得全 A 成交额共 23918 亿元, 较前一日略有上升。 行业方面,30 个中信一级行业有 11 个行业上涨,其 中通信、传媒、电力设备及新能源涨幅居前,而家电、 纺织服装及农林牧渔则跌幅较大。概念方面,服务器、 半导体硅片及铜产业等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指小幅收跌,特斯拉跌超 4% 周四(9 月 24 日),美国三大股指小幅收跌,道指跌 0.38%,标普 500 指数跌 0.5%,纳指跌 0.5%。万得美 国科技七巨头指数跌 0.34%,特斯拉跌超 4%,脸书跌 逾 1%。中概股涨跌不一,比特小鹿跌超 5%。 新闻精要 1. 商务部:对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施进行贸易投资 壁垒调查 2. 商务部:将 3 家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单 3. 公募基金总规模突破 36 万亿 今年以来第五次创 历史新高 4. 数字人民币国际运营中心正式运营 ...
铜:美元持续回升,限制价格上涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:00
2025 年 09 月 26 日 铜:美元持续回升,限制价格上涨 商 品 研 究 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 82,710 | 3.44% | 82380 | -0.40% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,276 | -0.43% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 334,893 | 283,166 | 238,523 | 66,079 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 42,366 | -4,722 | 296,000 | 6,048 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 27,662 | 243 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 144,425 | -350 | 7.89% | -0.24 ...
江西铜业股份涨超4%破顶 铜冶炼行业“反内卷” 海外矿端扰动再现
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 01:58
Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares rose over 4%, reaching a new high of 28.18 HKD, driven by industry developments and company fundamentals [1] Industry Summary - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Copper Branch held its fifth meeting on September 24, emphasizing the negative impact of "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, which harms national and industry interests [1] - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg in Indonesia, announced a force majeure and halted production due to a landslide [1] Company Summary - Jiangxi Copper possesses abundant copper resources and clear cost advantages, with stable annual production of copper and by-product gold, providing a solid profit foundation [1] - Future overseas resource expansion may yield potential growth, with the company's stake in the First Quantum Panama copper mine expected to resume production, and the Afghan Aynak copper mine development anticipated to progress [1] - The company's stake in the Kazakhstan Bakuta tungsten mine is steadily increasing production, with these potential projects expected to contribute significantly to performance growth [1]
港股异动 | 江西铜业股份(00358)涨超4%破顶 铜冶炼行业“反内卷” 海外矿端扰动再现
智通财经网· 2025-09-26 01:53
方正证券指出,江西铜业自有铜矿资源量丰富,成本优势明确,自产铜及副产金年产量稳定,为公司提 供了坚实的利润基础。未来公司海外资源布局或带来潜在增量,公司参股的第一量子巴拿马铜矿有望复 产,参股的阿富汗艾娜克铜矿有望推进开发,参股的哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿产量稳步提升,以上潜在增 量项目预计为公司带来强劲的业绩增长来源。 智通财经APP获悉,江西铜业股份(00358)涨超4%,高见28.18港元创新高。截至发稿,涨4.04%,报27.8 港元,成交额2.32亿港元。 消息面上,中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议9月24日在河北雄安新区召开中国 有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森在总结讲话中强调,铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争对行业影响大,损害了国 家和行业利益,与高质量发展导向存在偏差,铜行业企业要坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。另外, 此前,全球第二大铜矿——印尼格拉斯伯格矿区因泥石流事故宣布"不可抗力"而停产。 ...