Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper has signed a three-year cooperation framework agreement with China Ordnance Material Group, focusing on the purchase and sale of cathode copper, crude copper, and electrolytic nickel, while also pursuing a cash acquisition of SolGold to enhance its global copper resource layout [1][3]. Group 1: Cooperation Agreement - The cooperation agreement will be effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, covering transactions in cathode copper, crude copper, and electrolytic nickel [1]. - Expected annual transaction amounts include $600 million for overseas cathode copper, 2.5 billion RMB for Guangdong cathode copper, 600 million RMB for crude copper, and $50 million for overseas electrolytic nickel [1]. - Sales projections include 5.8 billion RMB for cathode copper, 500 million RMB for copper rods, 700 million RMB for aluminum ingots, 1.5 billion RMB for electrolytic nickel, 700 million RMB for zinc ingots, 30 million RMB for tin ingots, and 500 million RMB for precious and rare metals [1]. Group 2: Acquisition of SolGold - Jiangxi Copper announced a formal offer to acquire all issued shares of SolGold at 28 pence per share, valuing the target company at approximately £867 million [3]. - The board of SolGold has deemed the acquisition terms fair and is recommending shareholders support the deal [3]. - Jiangxi Copper has received irrevocable commitments from major shareholders, including BHP, Newmont, and Maxit Capital LP, representing about 25.7% of SolGold's shares [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - The copper industry is experiencing a shift towards consolidation among leading enterprises, with a significant reduction in processing fees for copper concentrate, impacting smelter profit margins [4]. - Jiangxi Copper's revenue figures for 2022 to 2024 are projected at 479.94 billion RMB, 521.89 billion RMB, and 520.93 billion RMB, with net profit expected to reach 6.962 billion RMB in 2024 [5]. - The company is enhancing its resource control and industry influence through strategic acquisitions and partnerships, particularly during a period of overall capacity adjustment in the industry [5].

Group 1 - Northern Copper announced that its 10th Board of Directors' 7th meeting was held on January 16, 2026, via telecommunication [1] - The meeting reviewed the feasibility analysis report on conducting commodity futures hedging business [1] Group 2 - The short drama industry has seen a significant boom, creating 690,000 jobs [1] - Actors who previously worked as delivery personnel have found employment in this sector, with decent but exhausting income [1] - Film crews are reportedly keeping emergency medical supplies on hand due to the demanding nature of the work [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production, with a notable increase of 11.9% year-on-year in November 2025, reaching 1.24 million tons [1] - Cumulative production of refined copper in China from January to November 2025 amounted to 13.32 million tons, reflecting a growth of 9.8% compared to the previous year [1] - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting, which provides an analysis of the market status and investment prospects for the electrolytic copper foil industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Group 2 - The listed companies in the copper industry include Jiangxi Copper, Yunnan Copper, Zijin Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Western Mining, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Chuanjiang New Material, Hailiang Co., Xinke Materials, and Xiyang Co [1] - The data presented is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and organized by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating a strong focus on industry research and market insights [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Fujian Zijin Copper Foil Technology Co., Ltd., has received approval for an environmental assessment of its high-end oxygen-free copper rod expansion project, with a total investment of 22 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Company Information - Zijin Mining (601899) has an indirect controlling stake in Fujian Zijin Copper Foil Technology Co., Ltd. [1]. - The environmental assessment approval for the copper rod project was disclosed by regulatory authorities on December 26, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The "A-share Green Report" project, launched by Daily Economic News in collaboration with the public environmental research center (IPE), aims to enhance transparency in environmental information for listed companies [1]. - The project monitors environmental performance based on authoritative regulatory data from 31 provinces and 337 cities, providing professional data analysis and insights [1]. - The latest A-share Green Weekly Report indicated that four listed companies recently exposed environmental risks [1].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. to add the "Tiefeng" brand silver ingot as a registered delivery location [1] - The approved silver ingots can now be used for the delivery of silver futures contracts starting from the date of the announcement [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper futures in Shanghai experienced significant strength, rising by 3.08% to reach 103,370.00 yuan/ton as of January 12 [1] - The average price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai increased by 2,895 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with a range of 102,850-103,600 yuan/ton [2] - Major copper smelting companies in China decided not to set a unified processing/refining fee (TC/RC) guidance price for imported copper concentrate for the first quarter of 2026 [2] Group 2 - A report from Yide Futures highlights global copper supply tightness and insufficient elasticity, with new consumption from green energy and computing driving copper prices upward [4] - Dongwu Futures notes that the recent ADP employment data from the U.S. fell short of market expectations, indicating a still-weak labor market, while the initial jobless claims showed some resilience [4] - The high copper prices are suppressing domestic demand, leading to low spot transaction volumes and a continued accumulation of inventory, with the pace of accumulation faster than in previous years [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][34] 3. Summary by Directory (1) Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2602 of Shanghai copper futures was mainly in an oscillating market, ranging from around 100,050 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 105,500 yuan/ton [9] (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Governor Milan expects a rate cut of about 150 basis points in 2026, which is expected to create about one million jobs without triggering inflation. He believes that US policy is still substantially above the neutral level. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 11.6%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 88.4%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 40.3%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 55.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.3% [4][12][33] (3) Supply and Demand Situation - **China's copper smelting fees at the bottom**: As of January 8, 2026, China's copper smelter rough smelting fee was - 44.96 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.58 US cents/pound. As of November 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [15] - **Decline in power grid construction investment growth rate**: As of November 2025, the power grid construction investment was 560.39 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.93%, with a slowdown in growth rate. From a seasonal perspective, the current investment is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [21] (4) Inventory Situation - **Global visible inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 180,543 tons, an increase of 35,201 tons from the previous week. As of January 7, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 143,225 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 18.1% [24] - **Domestic invisible market inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 101,800 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 43,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 75,100 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,000 tons from the previous week [24]

Group 1 - Pan-Pacific Copper (PPC) proposed a record-high copper premium of $330 per ton for domestic customers in Japan for 2026, more than three times the $88 premium in 2025, reflecting supply-demand fundamentals [2] - The current price increase is attributed to a significant decline in processing and refining fees (TC/RC), which has raised raw material procurement costs, prompting PPC to pass these costs onto customers [2] - Concerns about potential U.S. tariffs on copper ingots later this year have tightened Asian supply, impacting the market dynamics [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views - Silver has fallen from its high, indicating short - term price pressure. The bullish trend of silver is facing challenges, and the long - term trend has not ended, but the current adjustment is not over [7][8][9]. - The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. The iron element shows short - term high - level fluctuations and long - term pressure, the carbon element's supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the ferroalloy has different trends for different varieties [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Highlights - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the easing of domestic spot premium, the decline of overseas silver lease rate, the convergence of internal and external price differences, and the strengthening of exchange risk control, the pressure for bulls to push up prices has increased. It is judged that the silver trend - following long strategy is worth exiting. The current decline does not mean the end of the long - term trend, but the current point has a poor risk - return ratio, and the adjustment is not over [8][9]. - **Black Sector**: The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. For the iron element, there is long - term pressure and short - term high - level fluctuations; for the carbon element, the supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the price center will rise; for the ferroalloy, the manganese - silicon supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the silicon - iron is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short - term [11][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - **Silver**: High - level correction. The price has declined, and various indicators show signs of weakening in the short - term [16][20]. - **Copper**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen, but the inventory situation is a supporting factor [16][23]. - **Zinc**: High - level decline. The price and trading volume have decreased [16][26]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen slightly, and the inventory situation affects the price [16][29]. - **Tin**: High - level loosening. The price has declined, and the market shows signs of weakness [16][33]. - **Aluminium**: Market sentiment has cooled. The price and trading volume have changed, and the overall market is weak [16][36]. - **Alumina**: The supply surplus remains unchanged [16][36]. - **Cast Aluminium Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminium [16][36]. - **Platinum**: There is selling pressure due to the outflow of ETF holdings [16][39]. - **Palladium**: Generally follows platinum, slightly stronger [16][39]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, with wide - range fluctuations [16][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are a drag, and the market is mainly focused on the game of Indonesian policies [16][43]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Non - metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory has started to increase, and the demand for bargain - hunting purchases supports the price [16][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices [16][50]. - **Polysilicon**: Pessimistic sentiment is strong [16][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is high, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16][54]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Silicon Iron**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Coke**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][66]. - **Coking Coal**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][67]. - **Log**: The price fluctuates repeatedly [16][70]. - **Para - Xylene**: The market shows unilateral high - level fluctuations, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences [16][74]. - **PTA**: High - level fluctuation market [16][74]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium - term [16][74]. - **Rubber**: Wide - range fluctuations [16][83]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center moves up [16][87]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired [16][90]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter [16][93]. - **Caustic Soda**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][96]. - **Pulp**: Oscillatory operation [16][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [16][107]. - **Methanol**: Oscillatory operation [16][110]. - **Urea**: Short - term oscillatory operation [16][115]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation [16][120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [16][124]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [16][127]. - **Propylene**: The demand is stable, and the spot price slightly increases [16][128]. - **PVC**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][136]. - **Fuel Oil**: Strong - level fluctuations, with support at the bottom [16][139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rises, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounds slightly [16][139]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Lightly try to go long on the 02 contract for delivery; hold short positions on the 04 contract [16][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Bottle - Chip**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short at high prices [16][158]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation mainly [16][162]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to subside, and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [16][166]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves in a unilateral range, and pay attention to monthly - difference opportunities [16][166]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillation, waiting for next week's USDA report [16][172]. - **Soybean**: Adjustment and oscillation [16][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [16][175]. - **Sugar**: Range consolidation mainly [16][178]. - **Cotton**: Fluctuates with the overall market sentiment [16][183]. - **Egg**: The sentiment for the far - month contract weakens [16][189]. - **Live Pig**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - increment stage [16][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillatory operation [16][197].

Core Insights - The copper smelting industry in China is experiencing a significant trade deficit, with imports far exceeding exports, leading to an increasing trend in trade deficit from 2019 to 2024 [1][2]. Trade Deficit - In 2024, the total import and export value of copper smelting-related products in China reached 811.86 billion yuan, with a trade deficit expanding by 114.51 billion yuan [1]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the trade deficit was recorded at 195.81 billion yuan, indicating a continued trend of high import reliance [2]. Import Volume and Value - The import volume of copper smelting-related products in China reached 33.02 million tons in 2024, marking a 2.34% increase from 2023, with an import value of 807.29 billion yuan, which is a 14.48% increase compared to 2020 [3]. - In the first seven months of 2025, the import volume was 20.00 million tons, with an import value of 507.56 billion yuan [3]. Import Price Trends - The average import price of copper smelting-related products has shown an upward trend from 2019 to July 2025, with significant increases noted during the 2020-2021 period due to supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [5]. Export Volume and Value - The export volume of copper smelting-related products in China was 456,400 tons in 2024, with an export value of 31.60 billion yuan, reaching a peak during the observed period [7]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the export volume was 421,600 tons, with an export value of 28.92 billion yuan [7]. Export Price Trends - The average export price of copper smelting-related products has generally increased from 2019 to July 2025, although some products exhibited significant price volatility due to smaller export volumes [10].