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股市必读:西部矿业(601168)7月14日董秘有最新回复
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 17:40
Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant investor concerns regarding its hedging strategies and financial performance amid rising copper prices, with calls for a reassessment of its risk management approach [2][3][10]. Financial Performance - As of July 14, 2025, the company's stock closed at 16.41 yuan, down 0.55%, with a turnover rate of 1.54% and a trading volume of 366,800 hands, amounting to a transaction value of 604 million yuan [1]. - The company has reported substantial losses from hedging activities, totaling over 1 billion yuan in the past two years, raising questions about its financial stability and strategy [7][11]. Hedging Strategy - Investors have expressed concerns that the company's hedging strategy has not effectively mitigated risks, particularly during periods of rising copper prices, leading to losses instead of profits [2][3][5]. - The company acknowledges the need to optimize its hedging strategies and has indicated a willingness to adjust its approach based on market conditions and risk assessments [3][10][11]. Market Conditions - Recent data indicates a significant decline in copper inventories, with LME copper stocks dropping to 9.3 million tons and SHFE copper stocks at 2.1 million tons, raising concerns about potential supply shortages and price volatility [4][9]. - The company is monitoring market dynamics closely, particularly the risks associated with potential short squeezes in the copper futures market, and is considering adjustments to its hedging ratios [5][10][11]. Investor Relations - The company has been responsive to investor feedback, acknowledging concerns about its hedging practices and the impact on shareholder value, and has committed to enhancing transparency and communication [3][6][10].
沪铜产业日报-20250714
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 11:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. Industrial inventories are accumulating but still at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,639.50 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 6,478 lots to 172,204 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper increased by 6,397 lots to - 1,607 lots [2]. - LME copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 25 tons to 40,975 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 34,379 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,455 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot was 78,520 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. The CIF price of Shanghai electrolytic copper (bill of lading) was 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper increased by 2.5 dollars to 45.5 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was 55 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 21.57 dollars/ton, down 20.62 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters increased by 0.46 dollars to - 43.79 dollars/thousand tons. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,800 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,500 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The production of refined copper was 1.254 billion tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products increased by 34,000 tons to 464,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan to 55,290 yuan/ton; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products increased by 1.5 million tons to 209.6 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure increased by 63.169 billion yuan to 203.986 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development increased by 85.0427 billion yuan to 362.3384 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly production of integrated circuits increased by 68,000 pieces to 4,235,000,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper decreased by 0.29% to 10.25%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.04% to 9.33%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month increased by 0.0011% to 11.93%, and the put - call ratio of the at - the - money option decreased by 0.0213 to 1.66 [2]. Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have confused the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's proposed interest rate cuts [2]. - Data from the National Information Center showed that in the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields such as consumption, investment, industrial production, and business operations in China continued to improve. The offline consumption heat index increased by 25.5% year - on - year, the online retail sales of major household appliances increased by 28.0%, the national project winning bid amount increased by 23.4% month - on - month, and the business vitality indexes of start - up enterprises and technology - innovative enterprises increased by 38.3% and 28.2% year - on - year respectively [2]. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to the domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [2]. - Yuyuantan Tian published an article pointing out that in 2025, the global trade pattern is at a critical turning point. The unpredictability of US tariff policies has created uncertainty but also promoted the global trade system to develop towards true diversification. Although the US is still an important participant in global trade, its influence is gradually weakening, and developing countries and emerging economies, especially those in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, are becoming new growth points in global trade [2]. - Fu Bingfeng, the executive vice - president and secretary - general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that as of now, the proportion of new energy vehicles in China has reached 10%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 16 million this year, and the proportion of new vehicle sales is expected to exceed 50% [2].
全球资产配置热点聚焦系列之三十:特朗普征收50%铜进口关税,市场影响几何?
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-11 03:15
Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of President Trump's announcement on July 9, 2025, regarding a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective from August 1, 2025, leading to a significant rise in COMEX copper prices and the COMEX/LME copper price ratio [3][6][12] - The report highlights the historical context of copper tariffs and their effects on prices, noting that the COMEX copper price and the COMEX/LME copper price ratio have moved in tandem since early 2025 [12][13] - The report anticipates a tightening of global copper supply in the second half of 2025, driven by reduced production from both domestic and international smelting companies, while demand remains resilient despite being weaker than the previous year [29][30][35] Market Dynamics - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper prices surged, while LME and SHFE copper prices declined, indicating a shift in inventory dynamics and local consumption patterns [14][20] - The report notes that COMEX copper inventories have reached seasonal highs, while LME and SHFE inventories are at seasonal lows, suggesting potential pressure on LME and SHFE prices if the tariffs are implemented [20][21][22] - The LME copper market is characterized by a high backwardation structure, providing a cushion against price declines due to low inventories [26] Supply and Demand Outlook - The report projects that global copper supply will tighten in the latter half of 2025, with a slowdown in copper mine supply growth and continued increases in domestic refined copper production [29][30] - Domestic demand for copper is expected to remain cautious, particularly in the power sector, while overseas demand may improve due to infrastructure initiatives in the U.S. and a recovery in Europe [35][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring potential production cuts among Chinese smelting companies, which could significantly influence market dynamics [30] Economic Implications - The report outlines the potential impact of rising copper prices on U.S. manufacturing costs, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures [42][50] - It highlights the heavy reliance of the U.S. on imported refined copper, with a projected supply gap of 43% of annual consumption in 2024, primarily sourced from Chile, Canada, and Peru [44][46] - The report discusses the broader implications for copper-producing countries, including potential shifts in global trade flows and the dual impact on China as both a beneficiary and a competitor in the refined copper market [52]
反内卷,怎么反? 总量联合行业投资机会全解析
2025-07-09 02:40
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy in China, focusing on structural adjustments aimed at increasing the proportion of high-quality supply to achieve industrial upgrades, contrasting with the 2016 policies targeting cyclical supply-demand imbalances in the steel and coal industries [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy Goals**: The policy aims to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, enhance product quality, and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity to achieve high-quality development through technological upgrades [2][5]. - **Electricity Consumption vs. Industrial Value Added**: In 2023-2024, China's industrial electricity consumption is expected to grow faster than industrial value added, indicating a slowdown in investment and a necessary capacity clearance [11]. - **Wind Power Sector**: The wind power sector is benefiting from stabilized bidding prices and increased demand, with private companies showing significant profit recovery potential if strict cost control measures are implemented [3][21]. - **Copper Smelting Industry Challenges**: The copper smelting industry faces severe raw material shortages, with over 80% reliance on imports. The TC price is currently negative, indicating unsustainable conditions that may improve with industry consolidation [34]. - **Pig Farming Industry**: The pig farming sector is under pressure from CPI and capacity recovery issues, with policies aimed at controlling sow inventory to stabilize prices [3][39]. Additional Important Content - **New Anti-Unfair Competition Law**: The revised law includes provisions to combat involution-style competition, prohibiting illegal subsidies from local governments and enhancing regulation of low-quality products [7]. - **Differences from Previous Policies**: The current anti-involution policy differs from the 2016 supply-side reforms by focusing on structural quality improvements rather than merely reducing total capacity [6][15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The conference highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors like wind power, where companies like Goldwind Technology and Yunda shares are recommended due to their cost advantages and recovery potential [21]. - **Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic sector faces challenges such as oversupply in the silicon material segment and financial pressures on companies, necessitating regulatory measures against low-cost sales [16][17]. - **Future of the Construction Materials Sector**: The construction materials sector, particularly in waterproofing and cement, is expected to see consolidation and price increases as inefficient players exit the market [26][29]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is set to reshape various industries in China, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than sheer output. Key sectors such as wind power, copper smelting, and the pig farming industry are highlighted for their unique challenges and opportunities in this evolving landscape.
新能源及有色金属日报:进口压力有所显现,升贴水仍面临下行风险-20250708
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 09:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The current TC price remains extremely low, and the demand outlook is not very optimistic. However, based on the announced data, the terminal performance is acceptable. Coupled with the continuous flow of inventory from the Shanghai and London markets to the New York market, the low inventory makes the nearby contracts vulnerable to squeeze risks. Therefore, it is expected that the price will be more likely to rise than fall in the future, and the operation should still be mainly based on buying hedges on dips [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,810 yuan/ton and closed at 79,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The night session of the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,370 yuan/ton and closed at 79,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] Spot Situation - The spot market of electrolytic copper showed a weak consolidation pattern. The SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,800 - 79,970 yuan/ton, and the premium range of the current contract narrowed to 50 - 140 yuan/ton, with an average price of 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day. Affected by the concentrated arrival of imports, the spot premium is expected to face downward pressure in the short term [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: On May 20, major banks in China adjusted the RMB deposit interest rate table, with the current deposit rate下调 by 0.05 percentage points to 0.05%, and the listed interest rates of various term time deposits下调 by 0.15 - 0.25 percentage points [3] - **Mine End**: The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the Ministry of Mines to relax the export ban on copper concentrates of Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy. Amman's copper smelter can produce 220,000 tons of cathode copper per year [4] - **Smelting and Import**: The global supply chain has been affected by China's rare earth export control, and Western metal smelters are in crisis. The rapid expansion of China's processing capacity is squeezing the profits of the entire metal industry, and many smelters are facing closure or operating pressure [4] - **Consumption**: In June 2025, the domestic copper tube production was 166,900 tons, a decrease of 25,200 tons from May, a decrease of 13.12%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 72.25%, a decrease of 10.91% from the previous month. It is expected that the copper tube production in July will continue to decline significantly [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The LME warehouse receipts changed by 950.00 tons to 97,400 tons compared with the previous trading day, the SHFE warehouse receipts changed by -625 tons to 21,682 tons, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper on July 7 was 142,900 tons, a change of 11,100 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, mainly based on buying hedges on dips [6] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7] - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - Shows the price, premium, inventory, warehouse receipt, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai-London ratio data of copper on different dates [27][28][29]
沪铜日评:国内铜治炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内外电解铜总库存量连续累积-20250708
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 07:59
Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, along with disruptions in overseas copper production and transportation, are countered by Trump's tariff policies and the traditional off - season of domestic consumption. With the continuous accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventory, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors lightly build short positions in the main contract, paying attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,270 yuan, down 460 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 75,314 lots, a decrease of 25,248 lots; the open interest was 204,506 lots, down 11,232 lots; the inventory was 21,682 tons, a decrease of 625 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 615 yuan, down 190 yuan; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was - 5 yuan, down 30 yuan; in North China, it was - 170 yuan, down 20 yuan; in East China, it was - 40 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month vs. Far - Month)**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 280 yuan, up 20 yuan; between the first and the second continuous contracts was 150 yuan, down 20 yuan; between the second and the third continuous contracts was 250 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on July 4, 2025, was 9,852 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 97,400 tons; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 95.35 dollars, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 5.77 dollars [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.005 dollars, down 0.19 dollars; the total inventory was 221,456 tons, an increase of 8,285 tons [2]. 2. Industry News - **Domestic**: The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system in the Yunnan - Central Nonferrous Recycled Copper Resources Recycling Base successfully produced the first furnace of anode copper. On July 2, the No. 2 anode furnace in the refining workshop of Yuanqu Smelter was put into operation [2]. - **Overseas**: Glencore's PASAR smelter in the Philippines with a leased capacity of 200,000 tons has shut down; Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuned copper concentrator in Namibia has suspended production; Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile has reduced production; the Kakula smelter in Congo (Kinshasa) may be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons of cathode copper [4]. 3. Key Information - **Macro**: The US House - version "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over 3 trillion dollars. The ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected time for rate cuts is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Industry**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The supply of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted, and due to the Sino - US trade dispute, traders are reluctant to buy US steel. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase the economy of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. The production and import of domestic scrap copper in July may change, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be tight. The domestic smelter's monthly inspection capacity may decrease, and the production and export of domestic electrolytic copper may increase [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July due to high finished - product inventory. The operating rates of copper wire and cable, copper strip, copper pipe, and brass rod industries have decreased, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products in these industries has changed accordingly [4].
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内外电解铜总库存量连续累积-20250707
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 07:18
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, disruptions in copper mine production and transportation overseas, the combination of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, and the continuous accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventories, the Shanghai copper price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 830 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 100,562 lots, an increase of 17,176 lots. The open interest was 215,738 lots, a decrease of 8,934 lots. The inventory was 22,307 tons, a decrease of 1,796 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan [2]. - **Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 808 yuan, an increase of 385 yuan from the previous day. The differences between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous contracts also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous first contract was 260 yuan, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,852 US dollars, a decrease of 99.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 95,275 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.136 US dollars, an increase of 0.04 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory was 220,954 tons, an increase of 8,815 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economy**: The US Senate version of the "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to 5 trillion US dollars and expanding the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion US dollars. The ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September, October, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Mining operations of Las Bambas and Constancia were disrupted due to miner road - blockades, which may affect copper production [2]. Investment Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: In July, domestic copper concentrate production and imports may decrease. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and rising. The export of high - quality scrap copper from Europe is restricted, and trade concerns reduce the willingness to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase the economy of scrap copper, and the opening of the scrap copper import window may lead to an increase in domestic scrap copper imports. Some copper smelters have production disruptions, while others are under construction or expanding production, which may increase domestic crude copper and electrolytic copper production in July. The import window of electrolytic copper is closed, increasing the inventory in the bonded area, but some large smelters plan to increase exports [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The capacity utilization rates of various downstream copper - related industries may decline in July due to the combination of the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, except for the electrolytic copper rod production whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 81,000 - 83,000 yuan for resistance), London copper (8,300 - 8,600 US dollars for support and 9,900 - 10,200 US dollars for resistance), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 US dollars for support and 5.2 - 5.5 US dollars for resistance) [3].
帮主郑重解读铜价突破三个月新高:特朗普关税阴影下的囤货大战藏着啥玄机?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-06 13:37
Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in international copper prices, reaching a three-month high, driven by increased demand and supply constraints [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traders are stockpiling copper in the U.S. ahead of potential tariff increases by the Trump administration, aiming to lock in lower prices [3] - U.S. demand for copper is rising due to the restart of infrastructure projects, with orders for electrical wires and construction-grade copper increasing significantly [3] - LME copper inventories are declining, with warehouse stocks nearing 500,000 tons, tightening the supply-demand balance and contributing to price increases [3] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global copper mining is facing challenges, particularly in South America where strikes in Chile and Peru, along with transportation issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo, are impacting production [3] - Smelters are relying on existing inventories due to insufficient mining output, exacerbating the supply issues [3] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Short-term volatility in copper prices may occur due to tariff speculation, but long-term trends will depend on the actual implementation of U.S. infrastructure legislation and recovery of production in South America [4] - Investors should monitor upstream and downstream movements in the copper supply chain, including the operational rates of domestic copper rod manufacturers and inventory changes in quarterly reports from overseas copper companies [5] - The core logic of copper pricing remains rooted in supply-demand dynamics, with short-term tariff speculation being a temporary influence [5]
沪铜日评:国内铜治炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内外电解铜总库存量初现累积-20250704
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 07:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, along with disruptions in production or transportation at multiple overseas copper smelters, are countered by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season for consumption. With the global electrolytic copper inventory starting to accumulate, the upward space for copper prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price was 80,560, up 20 from the previous day; the trading volume was 83,386 lots, down 18,572; the open interest was 224,672 lots, up 1,550; the inventory was 24,103 tons, down 994 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,980, down 10; the Shanghai copper basis was 420, down 30; the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes, such as a 20 - point decrease in Guangzhou and East China [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,951.5, down 58.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 94,325; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 87.61, down 8.59 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.196, up 0.08; the total inventory was 213,171, up 1,962 [2]. 3.2 Important News - **Macro - news**: The US Senate - version "Six - Pretty" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with potential fiscal deficit expansion. The Trump administration's tariff policy affects consumption, and the US ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with expected rate - cut months being September, October, or December [3]. - **Industry - specific News**: Some copper mines and smelters faced disruptions. For example, Las Bambas and Constancia had copper concentrate transportation interruptions; several smelters, including Pasar in the Philippines, Rosh Pinah in Namibia, and Altonorte in Chile, had production suspensions. Meanwhile, some new projects were progressing, such as the Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan's projects and other copper - related projects in China [4]. 3.3 Downstream Market - Some copper rod enterprises plan to cut production to reduce inventory in July. The capacity utilization rates of various copper products, including refined copper rods, copper wire and cable, copper foil, and copper pipes, are expected to decline in July, except for the potentially rising capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rod production [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the factors mentioned above, it is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 81,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 and 5.2 - 5.5) [5].