Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is optimistic about GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800) due to its cost advantages in polysilicon production and expected benefits from the "de-involution" supply-side reforms in China's photovoltaic industry [1] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is below historical averages, indicating potential undervaluation [1] - The company is expected to see a turning point in its return on equity (ROE) by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has assigned a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 1.7 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding report industry investment ratings in the given content, so this section is skipped. Core Views of the Report - The market volume increase drives full - scale rises in various sectors. Pay attention to the new statements of the end - of - month Politburo meeting which may become the short - term market direction. Suggest buying IF stock index futures on dips [3] - In the bond market, although the economic data in Q2 shows resilience and the central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, the current positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term fluctuations are affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6] - The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] - For various metals, the prices are affected by multiple factors such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Most metals are expected to show a trend of volatile and weak operation in the short - term [10][11][12] - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand in August, while some products like methanol and urea face supply - demand imbalances [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [55][56][57] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: Some self - media content about the photovoltaic industry is inconsistent with the facts; from January to June, the total operating income, total profit, and tax payable of state - owned enterprises decreased year - on - year, and the asset - liability ratio increased; the Kremlin's statement about a possible meeting between Putin and Trump in September and the diplomatic response; Novo Nordisk cut its 2025 outlook, causing its US stocks to fall sharply [2] - **Trading Logic**: The market volume increase leads to a full - scale rise in various sectors. Focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting, and it is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined [4] - **News**: By the end of H1, the scale of cash - management wealth management products decreased; the US housing price increase slowed down in May [4] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday, with a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economic data in Q2 shows resilience, but the positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [6] Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [7] - **Market Outlook**: The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is expected that the Fed will make a dovish statement in this interest - rate meeting, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the US dollar index is strong, and the copper price rebounds with fluctuations. LME inventory increases, and the domestic spot premium changes [10] - **Outlook**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting and US copper tariffs are uncertain. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the upward space of copper price is limited due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [11] Aluminum - **Market**: The domestic black series stabilizes and rebounds, and the price of Shanghai aluminum declines with fluctuations. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changes, and the LME inventory increases [12] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic and overseas sentiment is positive, the price rebound is limited due to the off - season of downstream demand and weak export demand. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [12] Zinc - **Market**: The Shanghai zinc index rises slightly. The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the inventory is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish. In the short - term, pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the structural risks in the LME market. Be cautious about price fluctuations [13] Lead - **Market**: The Shanghai lead index declines slightly. The supply of lead ingots tightens marginally, and the price of lead batteries stabilizes [15][16] - **Outlook**: If the inspection of smelters expands, the price may strengthen. Be cautious about price fluctuations affected by capital sentiment [16] Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The price of nickel ore and nickel iron is stable, and the spot trading of refined nickel is okay [17] - **Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment cools down, and the price of stainless steel falls. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [17] Tin - **Market**: The tin price is weakly volatile. The inventory of the domestic futures exchange and LME increases, and the price of tin concentrate declines [18] - **Outlook**: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery increases, but the short - term supply of smelting raw materials is still under pressure. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [18] Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declines, and the futures contract price also falls [19] - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the passive reduction of the mine end. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of carbonate lithium can seize the entry opportunity according to their own situation [19][20] Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rises, and the spot prices in different regions increase. The import window is closed, and the futures inventory is at a low level [21] - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina may be difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [21] Stainless Steel - **Market**: The price of the stainless - steel futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of futures and society decreases [22] - **Outlook**: The steel mill's price - supporting policy is firm, but if terminal demand cannot keep up, the price may decline. Pay attention to macro - news and downstream demand [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The price of the AD2511 contract slightly declines, and the trading volume shrinks. The spot price is stable, and the inventory slightly increases [23] - **Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to face upward pressure [23] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rise, and the spot prices change. The inventory of rebar decreases, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increases slightly [25][26] - **Outlook**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand [26] Iron Ore - **Market**: The price of the iron - ore futures contract rises, and the inventory of ports and steel mills increases slightly [27][28] - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply pressure is not significant. The short - term price may be adjusted, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - situation [28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market**: The spot price in Shahe and Huazhong changes, and the inventory decreases [29] - **Outlook**: The short - term glass price is boosted by macro - policies, and it is expected to be volatile. In the long - term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side contraction [29] - **Soda Ash** - **Market**: The spot price is stable, and the inventory decreases. The price fluctuates widely [30] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rise. The spot prices also increase [31] - **Outlook**: Short - term price fluctuations are large, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. In the long - term, the fundamentals of both are expected to be weak [32][33] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The price of the industrial - silicon futures contract rises. The spot prices of different grades decline [35] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. The long - term fundamentals are still in a situation of over - supply and insufficient demand [36] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU decline significantly and then fluctuate slightly. The开工 rates of domestic tire enterprises change, and the inventory of natural rubber decreases [39] - **Outlook**: The price is in a state of decline and fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the band - operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [41] Crude Oil - **Market**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures rise. The gasoline inventory in the port of Fujairah decreases, and the diesel inventory increases [42] - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals are healthy, and the oil price has upward momentum, but it is limited by seasonal demand in August. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [42] Methanol - **Market**: The price of the methanol futures contract rises, and the spot price also increases [43] - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43] Urea - **Market**: The price of the urea futures contract rises, and the spot price declines [44] - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [44] Styrene - **Market**: The spot price declines, and the futures price rises. The inventory of the port increases, and the demand from downstream industries rises [45] - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side [45] PVC - **Market**: The price of the PVC futures contract rises, and the spot price declines. The inventory of the factory decreases, and the social inventory increases [47] - **Outlook**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The price may decline after the sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The price of the EG09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory of the port decreases [48] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and the short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - **Market**: The price of the PTA09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory accumulates [49] - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to accumulate, and the processing fee space is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [49] p - Xylene - **Market**: The price of the PX09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory is at a low level [50] - **Outlook**: The short - term negative feedback pressure is small, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The price of the PE futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise decreases, and the inventory of the trader increases [51][52] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side, and it is recommended to hold short positions [52] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The price of the PP futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise, trader, and port increases [53] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and strong in July under the influence of macro - expectations [53] Agricultural Products Pig - **Market**: The domestic pig price mainly declines, and the demand is weak. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction [55] - **Strategy**: Pay more attention to the opportunity of spread trading, and the long - term structure of the spread may change [55] Egg - **Market**: The egg price is mostly stable, and the high temperature reduces the egg - laying rate. The spot price rebounds, and the short - term near - month contract fluctuates [56] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the price rebounds for contracts after September [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The price of US soybeans declines at night, and the domestic soybean meal inventory accumulates. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declines, and the trading volume is large [57] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to factors such as squeezing profit and supply pressure. Consider widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 09 contract [58] Oil - **Market**: The domestic palm oil price fluctuates, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in three major oils increase slightly. The export and production data of palm oil and other products change [59][60] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile. The palm oil price may be supported in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter, but the upward space is limited [61] Sugar - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [62] - **Outlook**: If the external - market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to decline [62] Cotton - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures drops sharply, and the spot price slightly declines. The growth data of US cotton changes [63] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is bearish as the price breaks the upward trend line and the downstream consumption is weak [63]

"反内卷"下的涨价 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 29 期） 本报告导读： 消费端服务消费热度延续，投资端基建蓄力改善，生产稳中有升，工业品在 "反内 卷" 下涨价明显。 投资要点： lilinzhi2@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040087 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.27 021-23185646 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 liangzhonghua@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Report] 相关报告 美国：居民消费仍具韧性 2025.07.20 生产改善，消费分化 2025.07.20 生产改善、消费平稳 2025.07.13 特朗普关税博弈再起，全球资产短期扰动 2025.07.13 外需平淡、内需分化 2025.07.06 2025-07-30 [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费方面，商品消费仍需提振，服务消费中居 民出行、观影热度 ...

Macro Strategy - The chemical sector has seen continuous catalysts on both supply and demand sides since 2024, with the current "anti-involution" trend enhancing the market outlook, driven by a favorable fundamental environment and potential valuation uplift from emerging industries [1][23] - More than half of the existing convertible bonds in the chemical sector are issued at the peak of the cycle, currently entering or about to enter the redemption period, coinciding with an upward cycle, leading to more proactive debt conversion measures [1][23] - The majority of chemical convertible bonds are small-cap, which, combined with their near-term characteristics, amplifies the asymmetry of returns [1][23] Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB central parity has shown a gradual appreciation trend, with the exchange rate expected to challenge the 7.15 range again, and the spot exchange rate may drop to the 7.10-7.15 range in August [1][25] - The recent strengthening of the RMB is supported by optimistic expectations from US-China trade negotiations and a robust domestic stock market [1][25] Anti-Involution Policy - The "anti-involution" price governance aims to address three main objectives: short-term regulation of price wars, medium-term capacity reduction to promote supply-demand balance, and long-term price recovery, particularly in PPI [2][26] - The previous supply-side reforms led to a 10-month recovery in PPI, and under neutral assumptions, a similar recovery may take 11-12 months, potentially reaching around 1.9% by September next year [2][26] Industry Rotation - The market is expected to remain optimistic in the third quarter, with a focus on sectors that align with upcoming policies and key events, particularly those benefiting from the "anti-involution" strategy [3][5] - Suggested sectors for investment include those with potential short-term demand improvements, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, as well as technology sectors with recent catalysts [5][3] Company-Specific Insights - Xidi Microelectronics is positioned as a leading player in the analog chip sector, with a projected revenue growth of 32.10% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by significant contributions from its audio coil motor driver chip product line [11][12] - Minshida reported a 27.91% year-on-year revenue increase in its 2025 mid-year report, with expectations for continued growth in the transformer market driven by demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and wind power [13] - Gaomei's second-quarter performance is expected to turn profitable due to supply-side optimization driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with N-type silicon wafer prices rising to 1.1 yuan per piece [14][15]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On July 30, 2025, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The prices of some industrial silicon products dropped, while the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon increased. The prices of polysilicon and downstream products such as silicon wafers, cells, and modules remained stable [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase steadily, and the demand is mixed. The polysilicon market is in a situation where supply may increase slightly and demand is still weak. Both markets have fluctuating sentiments, and operations require caution [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 in different regions decreased, with drops ranging from 0.52% - 1.53%. The average price of oxygenated 553 also decreased, with drops between 1.01% - 1.53%. The average price of 421 in some regions decreased, and in some regions it remained unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 4.88% to 9,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged [1]. - **Polysilicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.83% to 50,805 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Wafer, Cell, and Module Prices**: All remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil prices all remained unchanged [1]. Industry News - Affected by the strong performance of industrial silicon prices and the increase in raw coal prices, the price of non - bonded silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of silicon coal in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the prices in Gansu and Shaanxi remained stable [1]. - Some domestic component companies slightly increased their centralized quotes due to cost - side pressure, but downstream acceptance was low, and recent transactions would mainly involve bargaining [1]. - European photovoltaics and energy storage power station developer SUNOTEC and Sungrow signed a strategic cooperation agreement to deploy 2.4GWh of battery energy storage systems in multiple solar projects in Europe [1]. Investment Strategies Industrial Silicon - Supply is expected to increase steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang resume production and the southwestern production areas enter the wet season. Demand is mixed, with polysilicon companies reducing production, some silicon material plants having复产 plans, organic silicon supply tightening due to an accident at a major factory, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchasing on demand [1]. - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded, but the bullish sentiment is volatile, and operations need to be cautious. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - Supply may increase slightly as silicon material companies maintain production cuts and some may have new production capacity. Demand is still weak as the photovoltaic market is sluggish, but the trading atmosphere has improved slightly [1]. - The polysilicon futures price has continued to rise since the end of June, but the sentiment is volatile, and operations need to be cautious. Future attention should be paid to macro - sentiment evolution and warehouse receipt registration [1].

融券方面，当日融券卖出1.76万股，净买入0.07万股。 本文源自：金融界 最近三个交易日，25日-29日，晶科能源分别获融资买入0.46亿元、0.24亿元、0.39亿元。 7月29日，沪深两融数据显示，晶科能源获融资买入额0.39亿元，居两市第539位，当日融资偿还额0.34 亿元，净买入466.02万元。 作者：智投君 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement signed between Jianfa New Energy, Tenghui Photovoltaic, and Anhui Huasheng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. marks a significant consolidation in the photovoltaic industry chain [1] Group 1: Partnership Details - Jianfa New Energy will provide stable financial support and efficient resource allocation for the collaboration [1] - Huasheng New Energy is responsible for the specialized and large-scale production of HJT products [1] - Tenghui Photovoltaic will contribute a mature terminal market network and extensive project development experience [1]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the trend of domestic companies expanding overseas due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the US, with a focus on the advantages of the domestic industrial supply chain and engineering workforce [6] - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the mass production of humanoid robots, presenting significant opportunities for domestic supply chains [6][7] - The report emphasizes the expected growth in the photovoltaic industry, with projections for increased installed capacity and rising prices across the supply chain [7][11] Industry Commentary: Machinery - The machinery industry is experiencing a shift as leading companies accelerate their overseas expansion in response to new US tariff policies [6] - Key companies to watch include Giant Star Technology, Changrun Co., and Honghua Digital Science, which are positioned to benefit from this trend [6] - The report also notes the potential for growth in the humanoid robot sector, with significant contracts awarded for production services [6] Industry Commentary: Electric Equipment and New Energy - The report discusses the recent launch of a new humanoid robot by Yushun Technology, which is expected to drive demand in both commercial and industrial sectors [7] - The photovoltaic industry is projected to see an increase in installed capacity, with estimates for 2025 revised upwards to 270-300 GW in China [7] - The report tracks price movements in the photovoltaic supply chain, noting significant increases in polysilicon and silicon wafer prices, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [8][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in humanoid robotics and the photovoltaic supply chain, including Jack Co., Hengli Hydraulic, and Zhejiang Rongtai [6][11] - It suggests that investors pay attention to the automation of logistics and textile equipment, highlighting companies like Hangcha Group and Jack Co. for their innovative approaches [6] - The report also identifies key players in the photovoltaic sector, such as Aiko and Longi Green Energy, as potential investment opportunities [11]

7月29日晚间，中国光伏行业协会在官方微信公众号上发布一则澄清信息，称近日有部分自媒体发布了关于光伏行业"反内卷"，特别是多晶硅方面工作的新 闻。该协会称"相关内容与实际情况严重不符，请大家不信谣，不传谣"。 虽然光伏行业协会并未明确提及澄清事项的具体细节，不过今日盘间，有市场传闻称多晶硅行业将进行产能整合。受此消息影响，多晶硅期货率先反弹，盘 中涨超4%。 | < G | | 多晶硅2510 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PS2510.GFE | | | | | | | 昨结 49060 50930 | | 开盘 | 49995 | 万得 20 | | | 总手 11.15万 | | | | | | +1870 | +3.81% | | 现手 | 3 | | | 最高价 | 51900 持 仓 4万 | | A | | 6万 | | 最低价 | 增 仓 48735 3926 | | | | 6万 | | 分时 | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | | 重义 | | | 釐加 | | | | 참 ■ | | | 51900 | | | 5.7 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 7月29日晚，中国光伏行业协会发表澄清公告称"近日有部分自媒体发布了关于光伏行业反内卷，特别是 多晶硅方面工作的新闻，相关内容与实际情况严重不符！请大家不信谣！不传谣！" 中国光伏行业协会表示，其将秉着法治化、市场化原则推进反内卷工作，力求尽快走出内卷式恶性竞 争，一切以官方发布信息为准。 记者注意到，当日有自媒体发文称，7月29日北京举办了一场"决定中国多晶硅产业未来格局的闭门会 议"，来自全国的17家多晶硅企业高管参与，文内还描述了"行业重组白皮书"收储方案内容。 一家硅料巨头企业向上海证券报记者证实，7月29日确实举办了硅料企业的闭门会议，但是具体内容尚 不能对外披露，一切以官方发布信息为准。 记者向中国光伏行业协会相关负责人求证，截至发稿尚未取得回复。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 ...