1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market, being the main trading logic. Most non - US countries aim to negotiate agreements with the US. After the US delays imposing reciprocal tariffs, other countries also delay counter - measures [1]. - The market is in a high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is gradually emerging, and risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [2][21]. - The price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather, showing different characteristics of oscillation, strength, or weakness. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market. Gold oscillated and closed higher, showing strength. The market is concerned about future Sino - US negotiation space. The actual trade has been affected, and economic downward pressure is increasing. Market sentiment is bullish, but attention should be paid to increased volatility [12]. - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility increases, so pay attention to risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market is in high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [13]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple events such as the US considering tax increases on the rich, investigating key minerals, and the slow progress of US - EU trade negotiations have occurred. The difficulty of trade negotiations persists, and the market should have a long - term expectation for tariff negotiations [15][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will rebound in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New York state's manufacturing has contracted for two consecutive months, and Canada will conditionally exempt some counter - measures against US - imported cars. The EU expects US tariffs to remain unchanged. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. - Investment advice: Although US stocks have temporarily stabilized, they have not completely reversed their weak performance [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOPA's March soybean crushing volume was lower than expected, and ANEC raised Brazil's April soybean export forecast. Domestic soybean import costs have decreased. The spot market has mixed price changes, and the basis contract is the main form of trading [22][24]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Brazil's export quotes, US soybean growing area weather, and Sino - US relations. The spot and basis of soybean meal will be under pressure [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export tariff of Malaysian crude palm oil in May remains at 10%, and the reference price is lowered. The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 15 increased. The oil market oscillated. Rapeseed oil was affected by rumors, palm oil was supported by exports, and soybean oil was affected by the expectation of high soybean arrivals [25][26]. - Investment advice: It is advisable to long - allocate distant - month soybean oil. The price of palm oil will be weak until its cost - performance is fully restored [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangxi issued a drought risk warning for sugarcane. Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of April decreased year - on - year. The sugar mill's high - price sales support the futures market, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The international market may be under pressure, and the import volume is expected to increase [30][33]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in Q2 2025, and attention should be paid to the origin weather and Brazil's crushing production [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises' losses remain unchanged. The raw material cost is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price difference is affected by complex factors, and the loss may lead to a reduction in production. The substitution of wheat may affect the regional price difference [34][35]. - Investment advice: The futures price difference of corn starch has complex influencing factors and is expected to have small fluctuations [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is stable. The import of grains is decreasing, and the inventory reduction in Northeast China is accelerating. The drought in North China wheat may affect the market [37]. - Investment advice: Before the May delivery, pay attention to inventory reduction in Northeast China and North China wheat production. Otherwise, the second - round upward repair of old - crop corn may be driven by the tightening of inventory after the May delivery [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early April, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased, and the inventory increased. The steel price oscillated, and the market driver is not obvious. The market is waiting for policy signals and the impact of administrative crude steel production cuts [38][40]. - Investment advice: Be cautious about steel price rebounds, operate with light positions, and use spot for rebound hedging [41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - In March 2025, the production of domestic cathode copper increased. The US copper industry called for export restrictions instead of tariff policies. The global economic downturn concerns and domestic supply - demand conditions may suppress copper prices [42][44]. - Investment advice: In the short term, copper prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to conduct band operations unilaterally and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage [44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon production plan is expected to increase, but the high inventory and weak demand may put pressure on the spot price. The number of registered warehouse receipts is limited [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on PS2506 at low prices and shorting PS2511 at high prices unilaterally. Hold the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The demand for industrial silicon raw materials is weak, and the price of silica has decreased regionally. The supply is loose, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is affected by factors such as factory production reduction and policy [47]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to shorting opportunities after the price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The discovery of high - grade tin - tantalum mineralization in a project may affect the market sentiment. The short - term supply reduction may help the price stabilize, but the long - term external demand is uncertain due to the tariff war [50][51]. - Investment advice: Short - term lithium prices may stabilize, and short positions can consider taking profits. In the medium - long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME will add two nickel delivery warehouses in Hong Kong. The macro - market and supply - demand factors affect nickel prices. The current nickel price may be oversold, and there are opportunities for upward repair [52][53]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices, manage positions well, and find short - matching varieties to hedge risks [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price oscillated, following macro - news. The supply of primary lead decreased, and the raw material of recycled lead was in short supply. The import window of crude lead opened, and the inventory decreased slightly [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, wait and see. Hold previous long positions and wait for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME approved four LME - approved warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The zinc price oscillated downward, and the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing. In the short term, zinc prices will oscillate widely, and in the medium term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [56][58]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to shorting opportunities on medium - term rebounds near the moving average. For arbitrage, remain on the sidelines for inter - period and hold the internal - external positive arbitrage in the medium term [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory increased, and the IEA lowered the global oil demand growth forecast. The oil price oscillated, and the market is pessimistic about the demand outlook [59][60]. - Investment advice: The short - term crude oil price will maintain an oscillating pattern [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreased, and the basis strengthened slightly. The terminal demand is affected by tariffs, and the supply - side inventory decreased due to maintenance. In the short term, it may rebound slightly, but in the long term, it is bearish [62][63]. - Investment advice: The rebound height of the PTA industry chain is limited, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is for rigid needs. The future supply may increase, and the demand is restricted by the downstream's acceptance of high - price复合肥 [65][66]. - Investment advice: The urea price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the demand in traditional and new delivery areas [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of Shandong styrene decreased. The styrene price oscillated weakly, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively better than that of pure benzene. However, the demand after May is still under pressure [67][68]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profits on the strategy of expanding the styrene - pure benzene price difference. The styrene price is expected to be under pressure [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased steadily. The supply increased, and the demand improved. The price may have bottomed out, but there is still macro - uncertainty [69]. - Investment advice: Temporarily wait and see [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some local price drops. The pulp price is affected by the macro - environment [71]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly, and the trading was poor. The market is affected by tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [74]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and the scale and type of domestic stimulus policies [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories decreased locally. The bottle chip market is affected by raw materials and tariffs. The supply and demand both increase, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate at a low level [75][76]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips will oscillate in a low - level range [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - In 2025, the national carbon emission trading market work started. Three industries will be included in the carbon market, and the carbon emission price is expected to be under pressure [77]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will be under pressure [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the southwest market oscillated at a low level. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [79]. - Investment advice: The soda ash futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium term [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price decreased, and the demand in different regions is different [80]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the near - month contract will be under pressure. Consider going long on distant - month contracts on large pullbacks, but the rebound space is not optimistic [81][82]. 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC is expected to become the world's largest terminal operator. The spot index is lower than expected, and the market is worried about the excess capacity on the US line [83]. - Investment advice: The excess capacity on the US line may suppress the upward space of the market. The European line will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to sentiment over - selling [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly volatile due to the uncertainty of the trade war, and investors are advised to pay close attention to Sino - US policy changes and adopt a cautious approach in the short term [16]. - Gold prices have reached a new high, driven by the decline in market trust in the US dollar's credit due to the US government's erratic tariff policies [2]. - In the bond market, positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [20]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the supply of soybeans in South America is expected to be abundant, which will put pressure on the spot and basis of soybean meal; the production of Malaysian palm oil is recovering, but international demand is still weak [25][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US March unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected. The US government's 3 - month budget deficit decreased by 32% year - on - year. Gold prices rose more than 3% to a new high, and the US dollar index fell 2%. The market is mainly trading based on tariff issues, and short - term market volatility remains high [12][13]. - Investment advice: Gold shows strength, but be aware of increased market volatility [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The China Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises Development Index in the first quarter reached the highest level since 2020. The Ministry of Commerce organized enterprise symposiums to help foreign - trade enterprises expand domestic sales. The market's upward momentum was slightly weak, and short - term risk - aversion is recommended [15][16]. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - aversion approach in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 65.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 157.5 billion yuan on the day. Positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [18][20]. - Investment advice: Currently, positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly export sales report of soybeans was lower than expected. CONAB raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, and USDA lowered the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 24/25 season. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the large future soybean imports will put pressure on the spot and basis of soybean meal [22][25]. - Investment advice: Pay close attention to the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans and the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans into China [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 10 increased by 29.29% month - on - month. The ending inventory in March increased by 3.52% month - on - month. The report data is slightly bearish for the market. In the long - term, the price of palm oil still depends on the production and export, as well as the price of international diesel and US soybean oil [26][28]. - Investment advice: Focus on production and export in the long - term, and be aware of the short - term impact of Indian replenishment [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The lowest bid price of Indonesian Q3800 power plants is 458 yuan/ton. The coal price is expected to be stable in April and may be supported in May, but lacks upward elasticity [31]. - Investment advice: The supply and demand are weak in April, and the price is expected to change little [31]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Global blast furnace steel mills' pig iron production in March increased by 13.0% month - on - month. The demand for steel is seasonally weakening, and the fundamentals of iron ore are still weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [32]. - Investment advice: Maintain a short - selling position and sell on rebounds [32]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The construction machinery industry may enter a new replacement cycle. The inventory reduction of five major steel products has slowed down. The market sentiment has eased, but the rebound space is limited [33][35]. - Investment advice: Be cautious with light positions in the short term and pay attention to hedging opportunities in the spot market [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The downstream startup rate of starch has declined. The inventory has only slightly decreased due to poor downstream demand. The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to fluctuate around the normal processing fee of 380 [37][38]. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to remain stable [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The total corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has slightly decreased. The outflow of grain sources in the Northeast has accelerated, and the inventory in North ports has declined for two consecutive weeks. The 07 contract is considered undervalued [39][40]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to weather in North China and inventory reduction in the Northeast [40]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The average retail price of sugar in Pakistan has exceeded the government - set limit. The production of sugar in India's Maharashtra state has decreased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of April decreased by 63.85% year - on - year. The macro - environment dominates the sugar market, and the price is expected to be volatile [41][44]. - Investment advice: Domestic sugar prices are resistant to decline, but the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the support level of 18 cents in the external market [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. reduced its holdings. The near - term contract of hogs fell, and the long - term contract rose. Speculators are advised to operate cautiously, and the industry can consider hedging opportunities [46]. - Investment advice: Speculators should be cautious, and the industry can consider hedging [47]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Northwest market is stable. The futures market is affected by the international trade situation and US tariffs, while the spot market is mainly affected by domestic fundamentals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [48]. - Investment advice: The futures and spot markets may deviate, and the short - term trend is volatile [48]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead has slightly decreased. The price of lead is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy can be considered in the medium term [49][50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term and consider a long - position strategy in the medium term [50]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a discount of 12.23 US dollars/ton. The inventory has decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term. A short - selling strategy around 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton is recommended [51][52]. - Investment advice: Short - sell around 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton and consider a long - term positive spread strategy when the time is right [52]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Panama's government confirmed that First Quantum Minerals withdrew its arbitration application. Global copper smelting activity decreased in March. China's copper demand in the second quarter is strong. The short - term strategy for copper can be bullish, but beware of the risk of repeated expectations [53][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish strategy in the short term but be cautious of repeated expectations [57]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sayona and Piedmont plan to merge. Liontown started the production of Australia's first underground lithium mine. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price is expected to decline in the long term [58][60]. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking for short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [60]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GEM and South Korea's ECOPRO signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The price of nickel has rebounded. The short - term macro - sentiment has eased, and investors are advised to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low valuations [61][63]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low valuations [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of Chinese LPG has increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises has increased slightly while the port inventory has decreased. The market is in a repricing stage, and the volatility is high [65][66]. - Investment advice: Reduce risk exposure and be cautious [67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The carbon trading market is inactive, and the price has fallen to 85 yuan/ton. The carbon market in 2025 may be weak, while the CCER market is strong [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. The supply is likely to return, and the demand lacks upward momentum. The Nymex natural gas price is under downward pressure [70]. - Investment advice: The Nymex natural gas price has a downward pressure [71]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The short - term market is dominated by macro factors [72]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of some imported wood pulp has declined. The short - term market is dominated by macro factors [73]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has rebounded, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The short - term market is difficult to predict due to high macro - influence [75]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased, and the market lacks confidence. The price is mainly affected by crude oil in the short term [77]. - Investment advice: The short - term absolute price mainly fluctuates with the crude oil price [79]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers has decreased slightly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [80][81]. - Investment advice: Short - sell on rebounds in the medium term [81]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has slightly decreased. The short - term price is expected to be low, and long - position opportunities on significant pullbacks can be considered [82]. - Investment advice: Consider long - position opportunities on significant pullbacks [83]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotations of bottle chip factories have increased. The price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and oil prices in the short term, and the processing fee fluctuates in a low - level range [84][86]. - Investment advice: The short - term price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and oil prices [86].

2025年04月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属价格反弹；消息面，美联储会议纪要显示大多数官员担心关税对通胀影响持续更久， 一些人表示若通胀持续存在，增长和就业前景却减弱，可能面临"艰难取舍"；几乎全体支持上月会议的放慢 缩表决定，但多人认为此次会议没有信服的放慢理由；特朗普表示暂缓对中国以外国家的关税 90 天；经济数 据方面，欧央行表示贸易战可能拖累欧盟 GDP 约 0.25%，全年增速仅 1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进 口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 64 吨至 1060 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦 敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格走低，点价盘涌现，出现库存去化。 操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行，但凌晨一点之后特朗普宣布对除了中国外的大部分国家关税下调到 10% 且暂缓 90 天增税，外盘铜价大幅上行。精废价差 1500 元左右。交易策略：建议逢 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ■ 一、回购审批情况和回购方案内容 （四）本次股份回购方案的实施对公司的影响 本次回购股份的资金来源为公司自有资金或自筹资金（含银行回购专项贷款等）。本次回购不会对公司 的经营、财务和未来发展产生重大影响，不会导致公司控制权发生变化。 浙江嘉化能源化工股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")分别于2024年3月29日、2024年4月22日召开第十届董 事会第四次会议、2023年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案的议 案》，同意公司以不低于人民币10,000万元、不超过人民币20,000万元的自有资金通过集中竞价交易方 式回购股份，回购价格为不超过11.98元/股，回购期限为自股东大会审议通过回购股份方案之日起不超 过12个月。有关本次回购股份事项的具体情况详见公司于2024年3月30日及2024年4月23日在上海证券交 易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Treasury Futures**: Bullish, suggesting active long - position layout [14] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term volatility, maintaining a short - term oscillation view [19] - **Gold**: Short - term callback, suggesting reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Cautious, suggesting careful control of positions due to ongoing adjustments [24] - **Stock Index Futures**: Suggesting reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] - **Power Coal**: Stable price, with limited expected fluctuations in the short term [28] - **Iron Ore**: Cautious, suggesting reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] - **Palm Oil**: Bearish in the short term, suggesting a short - selling mindset [34] - **Soybean Oil**: Suggesting attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [34] - **Sugar**: Short - term bullish support from spot prices, but potential risks from the trade war [39] - **Cotton**: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] - **Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil**: Suggesting light - position and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish for domestic futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans, with different impacts on near - and far - month contracts [50] - **Nickel**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] - **Copper**: Short - term pressure, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggesting holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] - **Lead**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] - **Zinc**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] - **Polysilicon**: Suggesting both long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] - **Industrial Silicon**: Suggesting short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] - **Carbon Emissions**: Short - term wide - range oscillation [71] - **Crude Oil**: Expected lower price fluctuation range in the second quarter [74] - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term processing fees in the low - level range [79] - **Caustic Soda**: Limited further downward space for the disk [80] - **Pulp**: Suggesting attention to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the pulp supply chain [81] - **PVC**: Suggesting waiting and seeing due to non - prominent fundamental contradictions [83] - **Soda Ash**: Maintaining a medium - term view of short - selling at high levels [84] - **Float Glass**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at large pullbacks in the short term [86] - **Container Freight Index**: Short - term waiting, with near - month contracts in a weak - oscillation state [88] 2. Core Views The report focuses on the impact of the US tariff policy and China's counter - measures on various financial and commodity markets. The trade conflict has led to increased market volatility, risk aversion, and concerns about global economic recession. Different markets show different responses based on their own fundamentals and supply - demand relationships. For example, in the financial market, bond markets may rise, while the US dollar index shows short - term oscillations. In the commodity market, most products face price pressure due to the trade war, but some products are also affected by their own supply - demand factors, such as the potential increase in palm oil inventory and the impact of copper's macro - sentiment and inventory structure on its price. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods starting from April 10, 2025. The central bank conducted 2234 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 3, with a net investment of 49 billion yuan [12][13] - Comment: The trade conflict may escalate, and the upward trend of the bond market is relatively certain. Long - term bonds may still have downward space after the holiday, and short - term bonds may rise if the monetary policy turns loose [13] - Investment Advice: Actively conduct long - position layout [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: US Treasury Secretary supports the tariff policy and denies that the US will fall into recession. The White House Chief Economic Advisor says the market crash is not Trump's strategy. The EU is ready to counter the US tariff measures [15][16][17] - Comment: White House officials believe the impact of tariffs on the economy is controllable. Short - term tariffs will continue to cause significant market fluctuations, and the US dollar index will maintain an oscillatory trend [18] - Investment Advice: Short - term oscillation of the US dollar [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Fed Chairman Powell says monetary policy needs to remain cautious. The US March non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations. China imposed a 34% tariff on US - originated imported goods [20][21] - Comment: Gold prices fell by more than 2% on Friday. The US tariff policy and OPEC's production increase led to a decline in market risk appetite, and gold was affected by liquidity. The short - term financial market's risk - aversion sentiment persists, but gold's trade - related premium is limited [21] - Investment Advice: Short - term callback, reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: The US March non - farm employment increased by 228,000, higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [22] - Comment: The labor market remains resilient, but the market's reaction is muted due to tariff risks. The tariff policy has increased inflation risks, and the Fed may be more cautious. The market is worried about economic downturn [24] - Investment Advice: Cautious control of positions due to ongoing adjustments in the US stock market [24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's offline consumption heat index increased by 14.2% year - on - year in the first quarter. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods [25][26] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a global stock market crash. The A - share market will also face significant adjustments. In the short term, the fundamentals and risk appetite are unclear [26] - Investment Advice: Reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: Canadian coal shipments in the 13th week of 2025 increased by 6.52% year - on - year [28] - Comment: Short - term steam coal prices will remain stable. The decline in imported coal since March has slightly increased domestic coal demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. April is the off - season, and the power plant's inventory replenishment cycle has not arrived [28] - Investment Advice: Limited price changes in the short term [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: An Australian mining company plans to produce 2 million tons of iron ore in Madagascar [29] - Comment: The trade conflict has intensified, and the SGX swap price has declined. The black - metal market may be under pressure, especially in the plate - related sectors. The iron ore price may be supported around $90 [29] - Investment Advice: Reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil) - News: Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase for the first time in six months in March. CBOT soybean oil fluctuated greatly last week [31][34] - Comment: Market institutions predict that Malaysian palm oil inventory will increase by 3% in March. Domestic palm oil is expected to open lower and maintain a low - level oscillation this week. Soybean oil prices may decline, but the decline of near - month contracts may be greater than that of far - month contracts [33][34] - Investment Advice: Short - selling palm oil in the short term; attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity for soybean oil [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Brazilian weather risks may support sugar prices. Brazilian sugarcane production is expected to decline. Guangxi's sugar production in the 24/25 season reached 646.08 million tons as of the end of March [35][36][37] - Comment: Domestic sugar mills' sales progress is fast, and spot prices are firm, providing short - term bullish support for the futures market. However, the trade war may bring risks to the sugar market [38][39] - Investment Advice: The current spot price supports the futures market, but the trade war may pose risks [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: Xinjiang's spring weather is generally favorable for spring sowing. The US cancelled the tax - free treatment of small - value packages from China. The US cotton export in the week of March 21 - 27 increased week - on - week [40][41][42] - Comment: Although the US cotton weekly export volume increased, the next - year's export prospects face challenges due to the trade war. China's cotton textile exports are blocked, and the cotton market is under pressure [43][44] - Investment Advice: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 477,200 tons week - on - week as of April 3. The real - estate market in some hot cities was active in March [45][46] - Comment: Due to the tariff risk, the external market declined. The black - metal market's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the long - term demand for hot - rolled coils has risks. Steel prices may decline on Monday [46] - Investment Advice: Light - position operation and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: Brazil exported 14.68 million tons of soybeans in March. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods, and the tariff on US soybeans will reach 47% [48][50] - Comment: The tariff on US soybeans will accelerate China's shift to Brazilian soybeans. The new round of Sino - US trade war is bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, especially for far - month contracts. The inventory of domestic soybean meal will increase in the second half of April [50] - Investment Advice: Bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans. The increase in domestic soybean arrivals will pressure the spot and basis of soybean meal [50] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The Shanghai nickel futures inventory decreased by 3669 tons in the week of April 4 [51] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a decline in the nickel price. After the release of risk sentiment, the price may return to the previous level. The nickel ore market is tight, and the nickel - iron market is strong, but there is a risk of oversupply [52] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: US mining giants are exploring new technologies to extract copper from old mines. Zambia's copper production may increase to nearly 1 million tons in 2025. Southeast Copper's cathode copper production increased by 4.25% year - on - year in the first quarter [54][55][56] - Comment: The US tariff policy and counter - measures have led to concerns about global economic recession, suppressing copper prices. The domestic inventory is weakly destocking, and the inventory change may support copper prices in the future [57] - Investment Advice: Short - term pressure on copper prices, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Lithium Americas reached a final investment decision on the Thacker Pass lithium mine [58] - Comment: The current fundamentals of lithium prices are bearish. Domestic salt - factory production remains high, demand is weak, and the ore price is falling. The warehouse receipt registration has increased [59] - Investment Advice: Holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.28 per ton on April 2 [60][61] - Comment: The US tariff mainly affects lead - acid battery exports. The lead price decline is due to market risk - aversion and concerns about future exports. The Shanghai lead may open at around 16,800 yuan, and it is recommended to wait for the macro - risk to clear and look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [61] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $18.13 per ton on April 2. MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and an Australian silver - zinc mine is approaching restart [62][63] - Comment: The US tariff affects zinc through market risk - aversion and concerns about future consumption in related industries. The Shanghai zinc may open at around 22,500 yuan. The demand is in the process of turning from off - season to peak season, but the short - term price may still be under pressure [64] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods. The polysilicon production in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and the silicon wafer supply will decrease due to the Myanmar earthquake [65] - Comment: The tariff has limited impact on the photovoltaic industry chain. In April, polysilicon may destock slightly, but the spot price may decline after the peak - demand period. The polysilicon warehouse receipt registration will start in April [66] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: Sichuan sample silicon enterprises are gradually resuming production [68] - Comment: Xinjiang's large - scale silicon plants have reduced production, and the southwest region is slowly resuming production. The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon is weak, and the export may decline. The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon is difficult to improve [68] - Investment Advice: Looking for short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The EUA main contract closed at €63.82 per ton on April 4, down 3.39% from the previous day and 7.24% week - on - week [70] - Comment: The US tariff policy led to a decline in the European natural gas price and carbon price. The short - term carbon market needs to pay attention to the macro - environment. The EU's emissions decreased by 5% in 2024 [70] - Investment Advice: Short - term wide - range oscillation of the EU carbon price [71] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The US oil rig count increased to 489 as of April 4. OPEC + decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May [72][73] - Comment: The US tariff policy and OPEC +'s production increase led to a significant decline in oil prices. The global trade friction has worsened the oil demand outlook, and the market is worried about OPEC +'s unity and the stability of the production - cut agreement [73] - Investment Advice: The oil price fluctuation range is expected to be lower in the second quarter [74

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of Trump's reciprocal tariff policy on April 2 will have a significant impact on global macro - asset classes, including financial derivatives and commodity markets, and the subsequent policy hedging will be a key variable [1][2][3]. - The global market is shifting from the progressive tariff expectation in Q1 to a more definite stagflation trading logic. High tariffs and potential retaliatory measures may exacerbate the macro - economic pattern of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [2]. - Policy hedging from the Trump administration and major economies such as China and Europe will shape the market's main trend in Q2 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Potential Impact on Macro and Financial Derivatives Markets - **Policy Features and Initial Market Reactions**: The reciprocal tariff policy has some buffer measures, including exemptions for certain commodities and a phased implementation schedule. When the policy was announced, U.S. stock futures declined, U.S. bond yields dropped, the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated, gold oscillated at a high level, and the Japanese yen strengthened [2]. - **Mid - term Market Logic**: The global market is moving towards a stagflation trading logic. The U.S. will first face "inflation" and then "stagnation", while major trade - surplus countries like China will first face the challenge of "stagnation" and then drive re - inflation through policy hedging [2]. - **Policy Focus**: The U.S. may implement tax cuts and the Fed may consider early interest - rate cuts. The pace of stimulus policies in major economies such as China and Europe will affect market expectations [3]. - **Market Outlook**: In Q2, the U.S. "hard data" is likely to cool down. The simultaneous weakness of U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar continues, and the short - term depreciation space of the RMB is limited. China's domestic demand policies are clear, and the key lies in the implementation rhythm [3]. - **Stock and Bond Markets**: Currently, it is the transition period from the re - evaluation of Greater China's technology assets to the implementation of domestic demand policies. The stock index is in high - level oscillation, waiting for domestic demand policies. The bond market is shifting to oscillation, and in 2025, if there are two interest - rate cuts with a reduction of 30 - 40bp, the trading window of the treasury bond market should be noted, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% - 1.9% [5]. 3.2 Potential Impact on Commodity Markets 3.2.1 Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals - **Policy Background and Impact Mechanism**: The unexpected tariff is a sign of the acceleration of the de - globalization process since 2016. It aims to solve the U.S. debt problem and reshape the global production and trade pattern. It will reduce U.S. imports, increase government revenue, but also put pressure on employment and consumption. It may also lead to more reciprocal tariffs globally and weaken the U.S. dollar's status [7]. - **Specific Metals Analysis** - **Copper**: Exempted from the current reciprocal tariff, but there is a possibility of future tariff increases. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in Q2, with the trading range estimated at 77,000 - 81,000 RMB [8]. - **Aluminum**: A 25% tariff on imported aluminum has been in effect since March 12. The tariff will be borne by U.S. end - customers, and its impact on China is relatively low [9]. - **Gold**: Exempted from the reciprocal tariff. The gold price is strong, but liquidity risks should be watched out for if U.S. stocks fall continuously. The gold price may fluctuate more due to the development of the trade war [11]. 3.2.2 Energy - **Crude Oil**: The reciprocal tariff policy will not directly affect the trade flow of oil and gas commodities. However, it may increase global economic growth pressure and thus reduce oil demand. The market is concerned about whether the EU and South Korea will impose tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports as counter - measures [12][14]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The overall trend of fuel - related products follows that of crude oil. The demand growth rate of marine fuel may decline due to the trade war, and the negative impact will be more concentrated on the low - sulfur fuel oil market [15]. - **Natural Gas**: The direct impact of the tariff on natural gas is small. Attention should be paid to Canada's potential counter - measures on natural gas exports to the U.S., China's resale of U.S. long - term contract LNG, and the impact on European gas prices [16]. - **LPG**: The U.S. is a net exporter of LPG. China may be cautious in imposing counter - tariffs on U.S. LPG. If counter - tariffs are imposed, the price of LPG will rise significantly, and domestic chemical demand will shrink [17]. 3.2.3 Chemicals - **Overall Impact**: The reciprocal tariff will drag down the cost of chemical products due to the decline in crude oil prices and have a great impact on exports. The overall impact on China and Southeast Asian emerging manufacturing countries is negative [19]. - **Specific Chemical Products** - **Textile and Clothing - related (PTA, Short - fiber)**: The reciprocal tariff will directly affect China's textile and clothing exports to the U.S. and also affect the export of polyester filaments to emerging manufacturing countries, dragging down the export of the polyester and textile - clothing industries [20]. - **Plastic Products**: The tariff increase will lead to higher costs for plastic product enterprises, reduce export speed, and affect raw material demand. The overall impact is negative [21]. - **Home Appliances (Styrene)**: The reciprocal tariff may drag down the demand for styrene in China. The impact on directly and indirectly exported chemical products is negative, but the final impact depends on the negotiation results between countries and the U.S. [22]. 3.2.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: China's steel exports to the U.S. are relatively low, but the indirect impact on steel exports is large, which will put pressure on steel prices, especially hot - rolled coils. The market should pay attention to tariff policies, domestic demand recovery, and macro - hedging policies [23][24][25]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The U.S. tariff policy mainly affects the major export destinations of U.S. corn. It has little impact on China's domestic corn price, and domestic corn prices should focus on their own supply - demand situation [26]. - **Soybeans**: China's soybean imports are mainly from South America in Q2 and Q3, so the impact of tariffs on the supply chain in these two quarters is small. Attention should be paid to the supply and procurement rhythm in Q4. The demand for U.S. soybean oil is expected to be good [27]. - **Palm Oil**: The U.S. tariff increase on Indonesia and Malaysia will be unfavorable for their palm oil exports in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is still strong [28]. - **Canola**: The U.S. reciprocal tariff list does not include Canada (except for steel, aluminum, and automobiles). The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada in canola oil is highly dependent, and the continuation of trade conflicts will be a loss for both sides [29]. - **Soft Commodities** - **Cotton**: The U.S. tariff increase on China will further reduce China's textile and clothing export competitiveness, and domestic cotton consumption may be negatively affected, with short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices likely to be weak [30]. - **Rubber**: The tariff increase will reduce China's tire export market share in the U.S., have a negative impact on rubber consumption, and drive down domestic rubber futures prices [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of various energy - chemical options, including fundamental, market, and volatility analyses, and provides corresponding strategy suggestions for each type of option [3]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Option**: Port and enterprise inventories are decreasing, and the market is in a state of recovery with upward pressure. It is recommended to construct a neutral combination of call and put options [3]. - **Rubber/Synthetic Rubber Option**: Tire production rates are declining, and the market shows a weak downward trend. A bear - spread put option strategy is recommended [3]. - **Styrene Option**: Port and factory inventories are decreasing, and the market is in a weak bearish state. A neutral wide - straddle option selling strategy is recommended [4]. 3.2 Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Option**: OPEC + production is increasing, and the market has short - term recovery characteristics. A volatility strategy of selling put and call options is recommended [4]. - **LPG Option**: Russian exports are decreasing, and domestic inventories are changing. The market shows short - term weakness and recovery. A neutral combination of selling call and put options is recommended [4]. 3.3 Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX/PTA Option**: PTA inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a weak bearish and volatile state. A neutral option selling strategy is recommended [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol Option**: Inventory trends are mixed, and the market is in a short - term weak state. A neutral option selling strategy is recommended [5]. - **Short - Fiber Option**: Polyester production rates and inventory days are changing, and the market has support and pressure. A neutral option selling strategy is recommended [5]. 3.4 Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Option**: Inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a large - amplitude bearish trend. A bearish combination of selling call and put options is recommended [6]. - **Polyethylene Option**: Inventories are changing, and the market is in a weak consolidation state. A bearish directional strategy is recommended [6]. - **PVC Option**: Inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a volatile upward trend. A neutral combination of selling call and put options is recommended [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, and multiple commodity sectors. The core view is that the markets are significantly affected by the US "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump, which has led to increased market volatility and uncertainty. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The US's unexpected tariff increase will affect short - term market sentiment. A - share markets were volatile, and the four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performances. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view and pay attention to subsequent domestic hedging policies [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Despite the central bank's net withdrawal, the capital interest rate decreased. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy increased due to the US tariff plan. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise rapidly. It is recommended to go long in the short - term, and pay attention to various strategies such as basis trading and curve trading [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US tariff policy announcement has a short - term impact. Gold prices rose slightly due to safe - haven sentiment, and silver prices were boosted by other non - ferrous metals. The long - term drivers for gold remain unchanged, and the price is expected to reach $3200 per ounce this year [8][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping**: The spot price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and the futures market will be volatile. There may be upward opportunities for the 06 and 08 contracts in the peak season. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and consider going long on the 08 contract [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US reciprocal tariff is higher than expected, putting short - term pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper is tight, but high prices suppress demand. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 77000 - 80000 [20]. - **Zinc**: The price is under pressure and has declined due to tariff - related risk aversion. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 22000 [20]. - **Tin**: Supply disruptions and low LME inventories have led to a sharp increase in tin prices. The traditional demand is weak, while the emerging demand has support. It is recommended to wait and see [23][25][26]. - **Nickel**: The reciprocal tariff has little impact on the fundamentals. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 126000 - 134000. It is necessary to pay attention to macro changes and the situation of the ore end [26][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw materials provide strong support, and there is a continuous game between supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13200 - 13600 [30][32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is volatile, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with the main contract in the range of 72000 - 76000 [33][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The blast furnace continues to resume production, and the five major steel products are seasonally destocking. The demand is affected by the US tariff policy. It is recommended to avoid going long for now and pay attention to the 5 - 10 positive spread [37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: There are frequent macro disturbances, and the height of hot metal production recovery is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 820 [40][41]. - **Coke**: After the eleventh round of price cuts, the market is temporarily stable. The supply and demand have improved marginally, but the futures have over - anticipated the rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has improved, and coal mine production has slightly increased, but the inventory is high. The futures have over - anticipated the rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies [45][47]. - **Silicon Iron**: Attention should be paid to production cuts and macro - sentiment changes. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Production cuts are being implemented. It is necessary to be vigilant about the ore end and macro - sentiment disturbances. The price is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Trump's tariff policy has weakened market sentiment. The soybean meal price is expected to remain volatile, and the rapeseed meal price is expected to adjust weakly [55][57]. - **Pigs**: The spot price fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the risk of increasing pig weight. The futures price is supported to some extent by the basis [58][59]. - **Corn**: The supply is stable, and the short - term market is active. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term and be strong in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [61][63]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price rebounds, and the domestic price oscillates at a high level. The raw sugar will fluctuate in the range of 17 - 20 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock [64]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic downstream situation has improved marginally. The domestic cotton price is expected to move within a range [66].

Group 1 - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference has revoked the membership of Tang Yong, Dang Yanbao, and Li Minji, with a proposal for confirmation at the upcoming Standing Committee meeting [1] - Dang Yanbao is the chairman of Baofeng Energy, a major player in the energy sector, and the company specializes in coal-to-olefins, primarily producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) [1] - Baofeng Energy reported a revenue of 32.983 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.338 billion yuan for the year 2024, marking year-on-year growth of 13.21% and 12.16% respectively [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Baofeng Energy announced the termination of a major capital increase plan and the cancellation of the world's largest coal + green hydrogen olefins project, which had an investment of 47.811 billion yuan [2] - Dang Yanbao emphasized the importance of supporting energy companies in extending into high-value downstream fine chemical sectors and increasing investment in technology for energy efficiency and low-carbon solutions [2] - Baofeng Energy has distributed over 10 billion yuan in dividends from 2019 to 2022, with plans to distribute over 2 billion yuan in cash dividends in 2023 [3][4] Group 3 - In 2024, the company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to 3.007 billion yuan, representing a nearly 50% increase year-on-year [5] - Dang Yanbao holds a 70.45% stake in Baofeng Energy through various companies and personal holdings, potentially earning at least 6 billion yuan from multiple dividend distributions [5] - In 2024, Dang Yanbao ranked 157th on the Hurun Global Rich List with a wealth of 95 billion yuan, an increase of 30 places from the previous year [5]

Group 1 - Central enterprises are actively embracing artificial intelligence (AI) through the "AI+" initiative, achieving positive results in key areas such as application, computing power, data, and models [1] - Over 500 scenarios in key industries like industrial manufacturing, energy, and intelligent connected vehicles have been established for AI applications by central enterprises [1] - China Unicom has developed the "Yuanjing" model family, which includes multimodal models for language, speech, vision, and multimodal processing, and has released the first "adaptive slow thinking" general thinking chain model to enhance model efficiency [1] Group 2 - The State Grid has launched the "Guangming" multimodal industry model, which provides specialized intelligent services across the entire power industry chain [2] - China National Petroleum Corporation has introduced the "Kunlun" model for energy and chemical applications, focusing on oil and gas exploration and equipment engineering design [2] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) plans to deepen the "AI+" initiative by emphasizing application leadership, data empowerment, and foundational intelligent computing, while encouraging central enterprises to increase investment in AI [2]