| 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3340.69 | 3839.40 | 2685.28 | 1991.64 | 5652.15 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.18 | -0.54 | -0.52 | -0.68 | -0.31 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 12.45 | 10.86 | 28.55 | 25.33 | 20.74 | | 环比变化 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.06 | 0.51 | 0.17 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.50 | 2.29 | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | - | -0.01 | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪深300 | | 最新值 | -472.89 ...

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 6900-7200 | 15.22% | 78.4% | source： 南华研究 聚乙烯套保策略表 | | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | | 产成品库存偏高，担心 塑料价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空塑料期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7150- 7200 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若聚乙烯价 格上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | L250 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Glass: If the low price persists, attention should be paid to the increase in cold - repair expectations. Although the valuation of glass is relatively low, the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [3]. -纯碱: The pressure on the futures market continues. Newly invested production capacity may gradually release output, and the maintenance cannot provide short - term support. With the cost decline, there is still profit in the industrial chain. It should be treated bearishly, and further price cuts by soda ash plants are needed for the continuous decline of soda ash prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash Price Range Forecast - Glass price range forecast (monthly): 900 - 1200, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 27.22%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 43.9% [2]. - Soda ash price range forecast (monthly): 1100 - 1400, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 29.95%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 44.9% [2]. 3.2 Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - Glass inventory management: For high - inventory situations, to prevent inventory losses, sell FG2509 glass futures at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 1100; sell FG509 call options at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 20 - 30, which can also lock in the spot selling price [2]. - Soda ash inventory management: For high - inventory situations, to prevent inventory losses, sell SA2509 soda ash futures at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 1350; sell SA509 call options at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 40 - 50, which can also lock in the spot selling price [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Glass: The industrial chain faces over - supply pressure in the future; the off - season of demand and weak expectations have not triggered new cold - repair expectations [3]. - Soda ash: There is a consensus on over - supply expectations, and there are still new production capacities in the long - term; the cost continues to decline, and there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.4利多解读 - Glass: The supply side remains in a low - fluctuation state; the futures price is approaching the full - industrial - chain loss state; at low prices, cold - repair expectations are disturbing [3]. - Soda ash: The maintenance of manufacturers from May to June is gradually being realized; exports exceed expectations, alleviating the domestic over - supply pressure [3]. 3.5利空解读 - Glass: There is still ignition expectation on the supply side, and there is no large - scale cold - repair expectation; the actual demand is weak; the overall social inventory is high, and the off - season is coming [3]. - Soda ash: New production capacities continue to be put into operation; the social inventory is at an absolute historical high; there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.6 Glass Futures Price and Monthly Spread - On May 27, 2025, the price of glass 05 contract was 1127, down 3 (- 0.27%) from the previous day; the price of 09 contract was 1031, up 12 (1.18%); the price of 01 contract was 1084, up 3 (0.28%) [4][6]. - The monthly spread (5 - 9) was 96, down 15 from the previous day; the monthly spread (9 - 1) was - 53, up 9; the monthly spread (1 - 5) was - 43, up 6 [6]. 3.7 Glass Spot Price - On May 27, 2025, the average price of glass in the Shahe area was 1155.8, down 0.4 from the previous day [7]. - The prices of 5mm float glass in various regions remained unchanged on that day [7]. 3.8 Soda Ash Futures Price and Monthly Spread - On May 27, 2025, the price of soda ash 05 contract was 1268, down 20 (- 1.55%) from the previous day; the price of 09 contract was 1231, down 23 (- 1.83%); the price of 01 contract was 1212, down 25 (- 2.02%) [8]. - The monthly spread (5 - 9) was 37, up 3 (8.82%) from the previous day; the monthly spread (9 - 1) was 19, up 2 (11.76%); the monthly spread (1 - 5) was - 56, down 5 (9.8%) [8]. 3.9 Soda Ash Spot Price and Spread - On May 27, 2025, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained unchanged, except that the heavy - soda ash price in the East China region decreased by 50 [8]. - The spread between heavy and light soda ash varied by region, with values such as 100 in North China, 50 in South China, etc. [8].

主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：物产中大、持仓4695、增仓1382，东方财富、持仓7193、增仓960，徽商期货、持 仓6611、增仓946；空头减仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓9191、减仓-3504，中信期货、持仓22180、减仓-2138，方正中期、 持仓5864、减仓-1975。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年5月27日氧化铝主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 国泰君安 | 172,773 | -100,511 | 国泰君安 31,708 | | -3,554 | 国泰君安 71,812 | | -73 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 141,559 | -64.866 | 东证期货 | 20,183 | 4,998 | 中信建投 | 22,439 | 485 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 119, ...

2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 E 突期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D778 - 服 热 官 方 线 网 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 市 市 站 需 有 课 风 慎 脸 fet ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | 2025/5/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | | | | | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | 伦敦银现 内外盘金 (美元/盎司) | 日期 | 伦敦金现 (美元/盎司) | | COMEX更令 (美元/盎司) | COMEX白银 (美元/盎司) | AU2508 (元/克) | AG2508 (元/千克) | AU (T+D) (元/克) | AG (T+D) (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格厨房 | 2025/5/26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The listing of "Shanghai Natural Rubber Futures" on the Osaka Exchange marks a significant step in enhancing the international influence of Shanghai's pricing in the global rubber market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Development - Natural rubber is recognized as one of the four major industrial raw materials globally, alongside oil, steel, and coal [2]. - Since its launch in 1993, the Shanghai natural rubber futures market has seen substantial growth, becoming the world's leading market for natural rubber derivatives [2]. - In 2024, the cumulative trading volume of Shanghai natural rubber futures reached 108 million contracts, with a total trading value of 17.36 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 24.1% and 53.4%, respectively [2]. Group 2: International Collaboration - The collaboration with the Osaka Exchange is part of China's efforts to open its futures market to the world, providing more risk management options for global rubber industry players [2][4]. - The first contracts listed on the Osaka Exchange are for the months of September 2025, January 2026, and May 2026, with an initial trading volume of 322 contracts and an open interest of 152 contracts on the first day [3]. Group 3: Price Authorization - Price authorization has emerged as a key method for the Chinese futures market to expand internationally, allowing foreign exchanges to link to domestic futures prices [4][5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange previously authorized the settlement price for pulp futures to the Norwegian Pulp and Paper Exchange, marking the first direct application of Chinese futures prices in international financial markets [4]. - Experts believe that price authorization enhances the international dissemination and influence of Chinese futures prices, making "Chinese prices" a significant reference in global commodity trade [5].

Group 1 - The global economic situation in 2025 is complex, with significant challenges and opportunities in the financial sector, including a notable increase in global economic volatility and a restructuring of international trade order [2] - The domestic economy is undergoing important adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing internal demand and managing the transition between old and new growth drivers, while preventing overheating in emerging industries and capacity excess [2] - Financial risks in areas such as the real estate market, local government debt, and small financial institutions remain key areas of concern [2] Group 2 - The 2025 "Excellent Financial Award" aims to comprehensively review the development of the financial system across various sectors, including banking, insurance, securities, and fintech, leveraging the influence of mainstream financial media [3] - The evaluation process will follow principles of independence, objectivity, and scientific rigor, ensuring fairness and social value through multiple layers of assessment, including market indicators and expert reviews [3][4] - Award categories include various segments such as annual bank awards, insurance company awards, and fintech awards, reflecting a wide range of financial services [4] Group 3 - Evaluation dimensions include policy responsiveness to financial supply-side structural reforms, industry leadership in financial metrics, innovation in financial technology, and support for the real economy, particularly in promoting inclusive finance for small and micro enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent wave of name changes among domestic futures companies reflects trends of shareholder restructuring, brand synergy, and accelerated industry mergers and acquisitions, indicating a shift from homogeneous competition to differentiated and branded development in the industry [1][4]. Group 1: Company Name Changes - Hongye Futures has officially changed its name to Suhao Hongye Futures, marking a new phase in shareholder resource integration [3]. - Other companies such as Huabao Futures, Jiazi Futures, Guotou Futures, and Zhengxin Futures have also undergone name changes, often linked to changes in controlling shareholders and strategic focuses [3]. - Huabao Futures, previously known as Zhonggang Futures, rebranded to align with its new controlling shareholder, China Baowu Steel Group [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The name change trend is primarily driven by changes in controlling shareholders, name changes of these shareholders, and mergers and acquisitions within the futures companies [4]. - The shift towards differentiated development is seen as a sign of the maturity of the futures and derivatives industry, moving from homogeneous competition to a focus on brand and group strategies [4]. - Since the implementation of the Futures and Derivatives Law in August 2022, there has been an increase in consolidation, acquisitions, and restructuring within the industry, indicating a natural outcome of resource allocation advantages [4].

【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.4%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.7%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.2%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率36%，累计降息25个基点的概率为49.7%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为13.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.6%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日增4.01吨 至923.89吨；iShares白银ETF持仓日增77.77吨至14132.67吨。库存方面，SHFE银库存日增8.4吨至 949.2吨；截止5月16日当周的SGX白银库存周减91.8吨至1482.5吨。 【本周关注】 贵金属日报 短期震荡 中长期看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月23日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格震荡调整，美指回升抑制贵金属价格，且日盘opec+讨论7月再次大规模增产消息引发 黄金跟随原油回落。昨日美债汇抛售压力暂缓。最终黄金2506合约收报3295.1美元/盎司，-0. ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年5月22日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 市场回顾 今日股指整体偏弱，除上证50指数收涨外其余指数均收跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落707.55亿 元。期指方面，IF缩量下跌，IH放量上涨，IC、IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1.美国新预算法案引发交易员对赤字的担忧，美债拍卖结果不佳，美国股债汇三杀。 核心观点 今日指数缩量调整，大盘股指相对抗跌，红利指数领涨，现货交投活跃度低迷 ，市场情绪趋于谨慎，不 过期指基差与现货价格反向变动，说明市场情绪反复，没有形成明显的趋势性变动。短期信息面变化不 多，板块轮动频繁，国内政策预期托底，下方空间有限，同时，外部扰动仍不断，市场仍持有谨慎交易原 则，短期预计股指仍将以震荡为主，趋势交易需谨慎。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.05 | 0.10 | -0.70 | -0.81 | 整体偏弱，市场情绪趋于 ...