1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is likely to return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the interest rate center may decline further. The market generally expects the Fed to restart rate cuts around June, which may also be the window for the central bank to implement monetary easing, with reserve requirement ratio cuts likely to precede interest rate cuts. Given the recent intensifying divergence in the bond market, if the short - end bond futures do not show signs of stabilization, there is a risk of a decline in the long - end. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别上涨0.23%、0.13%、0.01%、0.69%，成交量分别为51372（+1234）、50163（+2563）、34240（+4950）、77545（+604）手 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, TS06 - T06, TS06 - TF06 decreased, while TS2509 - 2506 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T、TF、TL主力持仓量分别增加5655、1926手，TS主力持仓量减少1495手；各合约前20名多空持仓和净空仓有不同变化 [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 240025.IB, 220003.IB, etc. increased [2]. - **Active Bonds**: Yields of 1 - 7 - year active bonds decreased by 1 - 2bp, and 10 - year yield decreased by 1.65bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 6bp, Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.2bp; silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 16bp, Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.5bp; silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 2bp, Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 0.9bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a issuance scale of 3405 billion yuan and a maturity scale of 2205 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.5% for 7 - day period [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The State Council Information Office held a press conference, and Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank said that reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts would be carried out in a timely manner to maintain sufficient liquidity and introduce incremental policies [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated 810 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for the second batch this year to support consumer goods trade - in [2]. - The central bank held a meeting to deploy the implementation of the overall statistical system for the "five major articles" of finance [2]. 3.6 Market Performance - On Tuesday, treasury bond spot yields strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank shifted to net investment, and the weighted average DR007 rate rose to 1.75% [2]. 3.7 Key Data to Watch - On April 30, data such as the US April ADP employment, March core PCE price index annual rate, and the week - on - week EIA crude oil inventory are to be released; on May 1, data such as the week - on - week initial jobless claims and April ISM manufacturing PMI; on May 2, the April unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The price of feed raw materials has increased due to the Sino-US tariff policy, which supports the cost of eggs. However, after the previous strengthening of egg prices, the culling of old hens has slowed down again. Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the newly opened production of laying hens supplemented earlier is gradually increasing, resulting in sufficient egg supply. Meanwhile, as the festival stocking is coming to an end, the purchasing power of downstream terminals has weakened, and egg prices tend to stop rising and decline. From a market perspective, dragged down by the decline in spot prices, the near-term market has also weakened synchronously, and market volatility has increased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2989 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 8 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -5033 lots, down 2340 lots; the monthly spread between September and January contracts is 128 yuan per 500 kilograms, unchanged; the futures open interest of the active contract is 141311 lots, down 16805 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 101 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.22 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 229 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 41 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 112.35 (with 2015 as the base of 100), down 4.09; the national culled laying hen index is 96.76 (with 2015 as the base of 100), down 21.67; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 4.25 yuan per chick, unchanged; the national new chick index is 138.68 (with 2015 as the base of 100), up 23.55; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.74 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is 0.05 yuan per hen, up 0.01 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.38 yuan per kilogram, up 0.28 yuan; the average age of culled hens nationwide is 510 days, down 6 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.78 yuan per kilogram, down 0.09 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.5 yuan per kilogram, down 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.34 yuan per kilogram, up 0.22 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.28 days, up 0.29 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.16 days, up 0.27 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 10714.73 tons, down 506.3 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 8996 tons, up 4 tons [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.36 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.25 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.83 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.88 yuan per kilogram, down 0.30 yuan from yesterday [2]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月29日收盘主力合约氧化铝2509,涨跌-3.08%,成交量48.95万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为42143手。 氧化铝期货全合约总计成交58.52万手，比上一日新增23.69万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓20.25万手，比上一日增加1.81万手。全 合约前20席位空头持仓26.51万手，比上一日增加3.78万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓26908、中信期货，总持仓15105、东方财富，总持仓14831；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓57356、银河期货，总持仓19436、中信期货，总持仓19043； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东方财富、持仓14193、增仓7205，中泰期货、持仓7812、增仓3155，建信期货、 持仓5973、增仓3124；多头减仓前三名分别是：中辉期货、持仓4313、减仓-3040，东吴期货、持仓4222、减仓-301，东证期货、 持仓9554、减仓-48； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：创元期货、持仓15929、增仓11795，国泰君安、持仓35282、增仓8182，东证期 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月29日收盘主力合约纸浆2507,涨跌-3.47%,成交量24.35万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为2962手。 纸浆期货全合约总计成交32.40万手，比上一日新增10.25万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓13.86万手，比上一日增加9334手。全合 约前20席位空头持仓15.42万手，比上一日增加9625手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓16203、国泰君安，总持仓15814、东证期货，总持仓10808；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓24736、中信期货，总持仓17683、东证期货，总持仓13172； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东方财富、持仓3316、增仓1227，广发期货、持仓3190、增仓812，中信建投、持 仓7173、增仓604；多头减仓前三名分别是：大地期货、持仓2700、减仓-679，国泰君安、持仓10876、减仓-517，中粮期货、持 仓2214、减仓-179； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓13929、增仓2192，大地期货、持仓3461、增仓757，国投期货、 持仓4699、 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月29日收盘主力合约焦煤2509,涨跌-2.36%,成交量30.17万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为47572手。 焦煤期货全合约总计成交34.57万手，比上一日减少8.48万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓20.10万手，比上一日增加1309手。全合约 前20席位空头持仓25.40万手，比上一日增加2706手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓27300、银河期货，总持仓20165、国泰君安，总持仓16499；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓35963、永安期货，总持仓29242、浙商期货，总持仓25698； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓8947、增仓1133，中信期货、持仓26516、增仓727，中泰期货、 持仓5904、增仓675；多头减仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓11966、减仓-1593，东证期货、持仓12487、减仓-70，华安期货、 持仓5168、减仓-22； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓27527、增仓3908，东证期货、持仓24992、增仓3546，浙商期 货、持仓24 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月29日收盘主力合约工业硅2506,涨跌-2.68%,成交量19.99万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 多，差额头寸为14682手。 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓6189、增仓1534，中信期货、持仓17543、增仓1502，银河期货、 持仓6239、增仓867；空头减仓前三名分别是：广州期货、持仓3829、减仓-2651，广发期货、持仓5893、减仓-1832，永安期货、 持仓13964、减仓-773。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年4月29日工业硅主力合约2506持仓数据一览 工业硅期货全合约总计成交33.47万手，比上一日减少1.54万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓27.13万手，比上一日增加4093手。全合 约前20席位空头持仓27.55万手，比上一日增加4970手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓47515、中信建投，总持仓30163、中信期货，总持仓23523；空头前三 席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓52472、中信期货，总持仓30542、中信建投，总持仓25473； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Huawen Futures indicates that rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue declining due to increased supply pressure from the upcoming domestic rapeseed harvest and a significant drop in soybean meal prices [2] - Baicheng Futures notes that the short-term volatility in rapeseed meal prices is not yet over, influenced by fluctuations in the soybean market and stable operating rates at domestic crushing plants [3] - Zhonghui Futures advises caution in pursuing long positions ahead of the holiday, as domestic rapeseed inventory is significantly higher than in the same period over the past two years, and new season rapeseed is about to be harvested [4] Group 2 - The market anticipates a faster customs inspection process, leading to a substantial decline in spot soybean meal prices, which in turn affects the rapeseed meal futures market [2] - The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to recover significantly in May, with downstream stocking needs being a key focus for the market [3] - The price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has recently widened to over 900 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in the substitutability of rapeseed meal [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Affected by the news of crude steel reduction, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. Recently, the spot price of steel has followed the increase, and the immediate spot profit of steel has improved. High profits will drive the continued increase in hot metal production. In the short term, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both strong, and the price bottom has certain support. In the medium and long term, considering that it takes time to formulate the details of the crude steel reduction policy, if the policy cannot be implemented immediately, steel mills have no incentive to cut production voluntarily under high profits. When the real demand weakens in late May, the contradictions in the steel market will accumulate again, and the black industry will face a new round of negative feedback. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, hold a light position during the May Day holiday, and short jm&j2509 at high prices after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Coking Coal - For traders with high coking coal spot inventory worried about further price drops, to prevent price declines from affecting trading profits, they can sell coking coal futures (JM2509) to lock in the sales price in advance. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 980 - 1030, 50% at 1030 - 1080 [3]. Coke - For coking plants with high finished - product inventory worried about coke price drops, to prevent price declines from damaging coking profits, they can short coke futures (J2509) according to the sales plan to lock in the price. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 1600 - 1650, 50% at 1650 - 1700 [3]. Group 4: Market Conditions Analysis 利多 Factors - Steel mills have high profits, and there is still an expectation of increased hot metal production [5]. 利空 Factors - The trade war has escalated, and the US has imposed huge tariffs on China, causing concerns about steel exports. - Coking coal is in serious oversupply. In the Shanxi region, producers are increasing production and reducing prices to maintain sales volume. - The topic of crude steel reduction has been hyped repeatedly [5]. Group 5: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 04 - 28 | 2025 - 04 - 25 |环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 199647 | 202077 | - 2430 | | Hot - rolled coil | Tons | 349673 | 353201 | - 3528 | | Iron ore | Lots | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | | Coking coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 890 | 890 | 0 | | Silico - manganese | Sheets | 123129 | 122403 | 726 | | Silico - iron | Sheets | 14906 | 14287 | 619 | [5] Group 6: Spot Price and Profit Data Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - Multiple types of coking coal and coke spot prices are provided, including prices of different origins such as Anze low - sulfur coking coal, Mongolian coal, and Australian coal, as well as coke prices in different regions like Lvliang and Rizhao. There are also price changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Import and Export Profits - Import and export profit data of coking coal and coke are presented, including import profits of Mongolian coal, Australian coal, and Russian coal, as well as coke export profit. There are also daily and weekly profit changes [7]. Basis and Spread Data - Multiple sets of basis and spread data of coking coal and coke are provided, such as coking coal 09 - 01, coke 05 - 09, etc., along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Ratio and Profit Data - Data on ratios such as the main coking coal/dynamic coal ratio, main ore - coke ratio, main screw - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio, as well as profit data such as the on - screen coking profit are presented, along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7].

4月25日，期货行业党建工作交流会召开。中期协党委书记、会长杨光在会上表示，坚持党建引领是期 货行业高质量发展的根本政治保障。近年来，在中国证监会党委的坚强领导下，中期协党委带领期货行 业不断深化对"坚持党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导"的认识与实践，认真落实新时代党的建设总要 求，突出党建工作的政治性、引领性、融入性，推动行业党建工作更上新台阶，以高质量党建推动期货 行业高质量发展。 具体来看，一是引导期货公司深学细悟，切实把党的创新理论转化为推动期货公司高质量发展的生动实 践；二是开展党建专项评价，征集"期货公司党建优秀案例"，充分发挥示范引领作用；三是开展行业党 建现状调研和基础数据统计分析，对行业党建引领工作提出规划和可行性建议；四是整合党建宣传渠 道，探索"党建+互联网"新思路，赋能党建工作提质增效。 杨光强调，中期协将在证监会指导下进一步引导期货行业提高政治站位，深化党建引领，切实做到党中 央举旗定向、期货行业守正笃行。一是把加强党建工作作为带领行业发展的强力"引擎"，持续做好金 融"五篇大文章"。二是加强党建工作指导，促进期货公司党建工作规范化发展。三是一体推进学查改， 锲而不舍落实中央八项规定精 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of concerns about the global economic downturn risk caused by mutual tariff imposition between China and the US, crude oil prices have significantly weakened recently and are consolidating at a low level, and the macro - expectation has also turned significantly weaker. In the short term, polyester demand still has resilience, and the transmission speed of terminal negative feedback is slower than expected. Under the pessimistic demand expectation, the main recent gaming point will revolve around whether ethane - based ethylene glycol can bring about a reduction in supply [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the market's expectation of trade dispute mitigation, expected import reduction in May and June, and high polyester load with a slight reduction in filament inventory and eased inventory pressure. Negative factors include the impact of US tariff hikes on terminal textile and clothing export demand and high hidden inventory in ethylene glycol factories [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Interval Forecast - **Price Ranges**: The monthly price ranges are 3900 - 4500 for ethylene glycol, 5800 - 6600 for PX, 4100 - 4800 for PTA, and 5400 - 6100 for bottle chips [2]. - **Volatility and Percentiles**: The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 30.73% for ethylene glycol, 44.15% for PX, 39.28% for PTA, and 31.25% for bottle chips, with their 3 - year historical percentiles being 91.3%, 99.4%, 93.6%, and 98.6% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, strategies include short - selling ethylene glycol futures (25% at 4250 - 4350), buying put options (50% at 70 - 90) and selling call options (50% at 90 - 110) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, strategies include buying ethylene glycol futures (50% at 4000 - 4100), selling put options (75% at 130 - 150) [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Prices**: From April 21 to April 28, 2025, prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX contracts, PTA contracts, etc., showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil rose from 65.3 to 65.8 dollars per barrel [5][8]. - **Spreads**: There were also changes in various spreads such as TA1 - 5 month spread, EG1 - 5 month spread, etc. For example, the TA1 - 5 month spread changed from 56 to - 60 yuan per ton [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: PTA, MEG, and PX warehouse receipts also changed. For example, PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 131530 to 109778 [8]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: Processing fees and profits of different products showed different trends. For example, POY profit increased from - 2 to 11 yuan per ton, while DTY profit decreased from 125 to 75 yuan per ton [8]. - **Sales Ratios**: The sales ratios of polyester filament and short - fiber also changed. The polyester filament sales ratio increased from 35.8% to 94.7%, while the polyester short - fiber sales ratio decreased from 87% to 74% [8].