中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局联合发布公告，支持可在中国债券市场开展债券现券交易的境 外机构投资者开展债券回购业务。中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局进一步支持各类境外机构投 资者开展债券回购业务，不仅有利于满足市场需求，进一步增强人民币债券资产吸引力，也有利于优化 合格境外投资者制度，巩固提升香港国际金融中心地位，助力在岸离岸人民币市场协同发展。业务模式 上，中国人民银行深入总结境内外回购市场实践，加强银行间市场债券回购机制和国际市场通行做法衔 接，实现标的债券过户和可使用，为境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务提供更大便利，也有利于促进优 化境内债券回购业务机制。 ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Balance - By Q3 2025, the yield on 10-year government bonds is expected to rise to approximately 1.85%, indicating a need for a new balance between supporting growth and maintaining financial stability[2] - The central bank's cautious strategy aims to keep liquidity reasonably ample while allowing yields to reflect supply and demand dynamics[4] - The shift in fiscal policy towards long-cycle sectors necessitates a matching interest rate environment[4] Impact of New Economic Sectors - Capital-intensive industries like artificial intelligence are driving up funding costs while maintaining a strong growth outlook, leading to higher interest rate tolerance[6] - The demand for long-term capital in new economic sectors significantly exceeds that of traditional manufacturing, pushing the demand curve for funds to the right[6] - Despite rising costs, high valuations in AI-related stocks persist due to strong growth narratives, creating a potential financial bubble[7] Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamics - The expansionary fiscal policy is a key factor influencing the yield on 10-year government bonds, with a high fiscal deficit rate and substantial local government bond issuance[7] - The relationship between government bond issuance and yields is positive; increased issuance without corresponding demand leads to rising yields[7] - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards technology R&D and human capital investment, which have longer and more uncertain economic returns[8] Future Outlook - The balance of monetary policy will depend on the success of fiscal measures in expanding employment and the rapid growth of new economic sectors[8] - The expectation is for structural monetary policy to remain dominant, with no significant changes to the overall monetary supply anticipated[8]

Fund Overview - The fund is named Huatai Zijin Value Selected Mixed Securities Investment Fund, with a code of 025663 and categorized as a mixed securities investment fund [11] - The fund operates as a contractual open-end fund and has an indefinite duration [12] - The initial offering price for the fund shares is set at RMB 1.00 per share [12] Fund Management and Custody - The fund is managed by Huatai Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the custodian is China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. [1][43] - The fund is open to individual investors, institutional investors, qualified foreign investors, and other investors permitted by laws and regulations [1][12] Fund Subscription Details - The subscription period is from October 13, 2025, to October 24, 2025, with the possibility of extension or shortening based on subscription conditions [2][12] - The minimum initial subscription amount is RMB 1.00, with subsequent subscriptions starting from RMB 0.01 [2][17] - A single investor cannot hold more than 50% of the total fund shares, and the fund manager reserves the right to reject applications exceeding this limit [3][17] Fund Investment Strategy - The fund's investment portfolio will consist of 60%-95% in stocks (including depositary receipts), with up to 50% of stock assets in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks [8] - The fund may also invest in various financial instruments, including bonds, derivatives, and money market tools [7][8] Fund Performance and Risk - The fund's risk-return profile is expected to be higher than money market and bond funds but lower than equity funds [9] - Past performance does not guarantee future results, and the fund manager does not guarantee profits or minimum returns [9] Fund Subscription Process - Investors must open a fund account with Huatai Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd. to subscribe [18] - Subscription applications must be submitted during specified hours, and cash subscriptions are not accepted [20][27] - The fund manager will handle all subscription-related fees, which will not be deducted from the fund's assets [44]

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 483.5 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40% on September 25, with a total bid amount of 483.5 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 483.5 billion yuan. On the same day, 487 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan [1]. Funding Conditions - The central bank continued to conduct MLF operations, but liquidity improvement in the interbank market was limited. The overnight repo weighted average rate for deposit institutions rose by nearly 4 basis points to around 1.47%. The rates for 7-day and 14-day repos continued to rise as the month-end and the National Day holiday approached. The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system hovered around the DR001 level, with supply increasing by several hundred billion compared to the previous day [3]. Bond Market Overview - The yield on major interbank rates for bonds showed mixed movements, with the latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit at around 1.69%, a slight increase from the previous day [9]. - The closing prices for government bond futures mostly declined, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.11%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts all fell by 0.01% [14]. Recent Developments in Debt Financing - The central bank has increased MLF operations for seven consecutive months, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in September, maintaining a stable liquidity release of 600 billion yuan through MLF and reverse repos, consistent with the previous month [15]. - The China Index Academy reported that the total bond financing in the real estate sector for August 2025 was 55.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.51%, down by 0.01 percentage points year-on-year and 0.03 percentage points month-on-month [15]. Global Macro Developments - The EU aims to establish free trade agreements with Malaysia and two other ASEAN countries by 2027, as part of its strategy to diversify trade and reduce dependence on the US [17]. - The Swiss National Bank maintained its interest rate at 0%, marking the first pause since the beginning of its rate-cutting cycle in March 2024, aligning with market expectations [17]. Bond Market Events - The Shanghai Clearing House successfully held a seminar on "Yulan Bonds" in Hong Kong. The Export-Import Bank plans to auction up to 2 billion yuan of 3-year floating rate bonds on September 26. Additionally, five new ETFs for Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds were launched, each exceeding 10 billion yuan in size [19].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs projects that emerging market stocks and currencies will rise by the end of this year, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions, positioning trends, and seasonal factors [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and sustained capital inflows have created a favorable macro environment [1] - The fourth quarter typically exhibits seasonal positive effects, contributing to the expected rise in emerging markets [1] Group 2: Market Projections - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from 1370 points to 1480 points, indicating approximately a 10% upside potential [1] Group 3: Regional Focus - The firm continues to overweight the Chinese and South Korean markets, driven by artificial intelligence, technology, and policy reforms [1] Group 4: Currency Trends - Emerging market currencies have strengthened over the past month, and this trend is expected to continue, supported by arbitrage trading, cyclical dynamics of the dollar, and the strong performance of emerging market stocks [1]

Market Overview - Global share markets have shown signs of stagnation as investors reassess stretched valuations, leading to a decline in Wall Street for two consecutive days [1] - Asian stocks remained mostly stable, with Chinese bluechips rising by 0.9% due to the global AI surge [1] European Market Outlook - European markets are expected to open flat, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures showing little change, while Wall Street futures increased by 0.2% [2] - Asian shares have experienced a significant rally of 9% for the quarter, with Japan's Nikkei up 13% [2] Federal Reserve Insights - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that while further rate cuts are necessary, the timing remains uncertain, with more Fed officials scheduled to speak [3] - The market anticipates a 92% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in October, although the total expected easing has decreased from 125 basis points to 100 basis points [2] Currency Movements - The dollar experienced a 0.6% increase against major currencies, although its short-term technical outlook remains weak [4] - The yen has faced pressure, with the Swiss franc reaching an all-time high against the yen and the euro hovering near a one-year peak [4] Upcoming Economic Data - Key U.S. economic data to be released includes weekly jobless claims and the final estimate for Q2 GDP, with a focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report [5] - A significant rise in jobless claims could support the case for two additional rate cuts this year, while strong results may bolster the dollar and increase short-term yields [5]

Core Insights - The overall liquidity in the interbank market remained balanced in August 2025, with a decrease in trading volume and balances in the money market, while major repo rates declined [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly 10-year high, and the recovery of VAT on government bond interest income contributed to a decrease in bond issuance and trading [1][4] - Long-term bond yields continued to rise, with the yield curve steepening, and the interest rate swap curve shifted upward [1][6] Group 1: Liquidity and Market Operations - The central bank maintained a supportive liquidity stance, with significant net injections in the open market, totaling 446.6 billion yuan for the month [2] - The central bank's MLF and reverse repos saw substantial net injections, with MLF at 300 billion yuan and reverse repos at 300 billion yuan [2] - Major repo rates, including overnight repo rates, saw slight declines, with DR001 and R001 down to 1.35% and 1.40% respectively [2][3] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - In August, the interbank market issued bonds totaling 4.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.8% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year [4] - The net financing from bonds was 1.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 18.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.2% [4] - The yields on long-term government bonds fluctuated, with the 10-year bond yield ranging from 1.69% to 1.85%, and the yield curve steepening [4][5] Group 3: Interest Rate Swaps and Trading Activity - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward, with significant increases in long-term swap rates, particularly for 5-year and 10-year swaps [6] - The average daily trading volume for RMB interest rate swaps decreased, with a total nominal principal of 4.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3% decline [6][7] - Standard bond futures and interest rate options also saw a decrease in daily trading volume, indicating reduced market activity [7]

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，9月24日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4015亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量4015亿元，中标量4015亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日4185亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼170亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 央行继周一重启14天期逆回购操作后，该期限近两日连续隐身。银行间市场周三资金面收敛态势愈发明显，资金价格亦随之上涨，跨季的七天期资金价格 涨幅偏大。存款类机构七天回购加权利率大涨约11bp，来到1.58%附近，创两个月新高。非银机构押信用债和存单融入七天资金价格则亦来到 1.92%-1.96%。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价也是大涨至1.68%，且几无供给。非银机构质押存单和信用债融入隔夜资金的报价基本还在 1.62%-1.65%区间，较昨日水准亦明显上涨。 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.14%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased slightly month - on - month and was lower than the same period in previous years. The total bond custody scale of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House increased. Different institutions had different investment preferences for various bonds, with commercial banks increasing their allocation of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and broad - based funds increasing their holdings of local government bonds [1][2][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank - Inter Leverage Ratio In late August, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 106.88%, up 0.07 pct from the end of the previous month, and generally lower than the leverage ratio in the same period of previous years [1]. 3.2 Custody Data Overview In August 2025, the total bond custody scale of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 174.54 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.506 trillion yuan. Among them, CCDC's custody scale increased by 1.5382 trillion yuan, and Shanghai Clearing House's decreased by 32.2 billion yuan. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, and medium - term notes contributed to the increase, while enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, ultra - short - term financing bills, directional instruments, and inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed to the decrease [2][12]. 3.3 By Bond Type - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In August 2025, the total custody scale of major interest - rate bonds was 116.60 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.7871 trillion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 1.2979 trillion yuan. Broad - based funds, insurance institutions, etc. also increased their holdings, while overseas institutions reduced their holdings [3][49]. - **Credit Bonds**: The total custody scale of major credit bonds was 16.06 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 54.4 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and securities companies were the main sellers, reducing their holdings by 18.1 billion yuan and 14.8 billion yuan respectively. Insurance institutions and overseas institutions also reduced their holdings [3][49]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit**: The custody scale was 20.38 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 355.6 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and commercial banks were the main sellers [3][49]. 3.4 By Institution - **Commercial Banks**: The custody scale of major bonds was 85.29 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.153 trillion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 1.2979 trillion yuan and 54.4 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 199.3 billion yuan [4][50]. - **Broad - based Funds**: The custody scale of major bonds was 37.38 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 172.3 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 120.7 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 18.1 billion yuan and 274.9 billion yuan respectively [4][50]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 3.69 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 98.8 billion yuan. They reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 27.5 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 67.8 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Insurance Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.26 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 43.2 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 49.5 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 5.9 billion yuan and 0.4 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Securities Companies**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2.64 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 13.4 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 14.8 billion yuan and 0.6 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Credit Unions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.9 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 22.1 billion yuan and 0.7 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 10.8 billion yuan [5][55].

Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - The article published in "Qiushi" emphasizes the importance of building a unified national market as a major decision by the central government, necessary for constructing a new development pattern and enhancing international competitiveness [9][10] - The State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang discussed the implementation of the national ecological environment protection conference, highlighting that the construction of a beautiful China is a long-term systematic project requiring sustained efforts [11][12] - The People's Bank of China adjusted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to a multi-price bidding system to maintain liquidity in the banking system [22][25] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Analysis - In the A-share market, major indices remained stable in the third week of September, with the CSI 100 and ChiNext indices rising by 1.08% and 2.34% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3% [23] - The central bank's net fund injection was 11,923 billion yuan, indicating a slight tightening of liquidity in the market [3][26] - Economic data for August showed a year-on-year industrial value-added growth of 5.2%, while retail sales increased by 3.4%, suggesting a need for counter-cyclical policy adjustments [26][30] Group 3: International Policy Developments - President Xi Jinping's phone call with President Trump focused on stabilizing Sino-US relations and addressing mutual concerns, indicating a constructive dialogue [14][15] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points after nine months reflects a shift in monetary policy, with the target range now at 4.00%-4.25% [16][19] - The Fed's updated economic growth forecast for 2025 was raised by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%, indicating a more optimistic outlook [19][21]