作者 | 格隆汇小编 数据支持 | 勾股 大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今天 A 股喜气洋洋，迎来马年的开门红，但拿着消费的，脸绿得发青，不说白酒高开低走，就是原来走得像模像样，俨然有老登带头 大哥之势的 中免都封死跌停 ，以致公司都要出来回应。 以下文章来源于格隆汇交易学苑 ，作者格隆汇小编 格隆汇交易学苑 . 以基本面为基础，专注于趋势交易 春节是一个消费旺季，但落到我们投资上，其实主要是白酒和社服，后者包括免税、酒店、餐饮、出行等相关数据。 春节占白酒一年消费量的很大一部分， 26 年春节的白酒消费继续不给力，整体动销下滑了 10-15% ， 不过临近春节前夕有所恢 复。 茅台的批价持续往上走，站上了 1700 ，除了茅台外，表现好的有五粮液，节前一周一些区域的动销恢复正增长，批价和春节成交价 为 780 元 + 和 800 元 + ，略超预期。但这个略超预期，终究是市场预期本来就低带来的，并不是白酒表现好了。分价格带看，中间 的次高端是表现最差的一档，高不成低不就。 节前收盘后官方出了一个文件，三部门联合印发了《酿酒产业提质升级指导意见（ 2026-2030 年）》，许多人看到可能觉得 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the vibrant consumer activity in Kunming during the Spring Festival, driven by various promotional initiatives and government policies aimed at boosting spending [4][5][6]. Group 1: Consumer Activity and Sales Performance - During the Spring Festival, Kunming's key monitored enterprises reported a 5% year-on-year increase in sales, indicating a strong start to the new year for consumer spending [4]. - The trial of the prize invoice system in Kunming saw over 38,000 winners and distributed more than 6.2 million yuan in prizes, directly stimulating over 64 million yuan in consumption [6]. - Sales of daily necessities surged by 30.5% year-on-year during the holiday period, reflecting robust consumer resilience [6]. Group 2: Government Initiatives and Promotions - The Kunming municipal government implemented a series of consumer incentives, including trade-in programs, consumption vouchers, and prize invoices, to enhance market activity [5]. - The "Indian Ocean Seafood Festival" received increased consumption voucher allocations to encourage spending, particularly in the dining sector [5]. - The prize invoice initiative, covering eight essential sectors, incentivized consumers to request invoices, fostering a culture of active participation in the economy [5]. Group 3: Consumer Experience and Market Innovation - Kunming focused on upgrading consumption experiences by promoting trade-in policies and launching various themed activities to attract consumers [7]. - The city organized promotional events for automobiles, home appliances, and digital products, combining government subsidies with merchant discounts to maximize consumer benefits [7]. - Sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 21% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, showcasing the effectiveness of these initiatives [7]. Group 4: Cultural Integration and Tourism - Major commercial districts in Kunming transformed their spaces into cultural venues, hosting events that blended commerce with cultural experiences to enhance consumer engagement [8]. - Activities such as art exhibitions and traditional performances were organized to create a festive atmosphere, attracting both locals and tourists [8]. - The integration of commerce and culture effectively extended visitor stay times and diversified consumer demands, contributing to a lively holiday economy [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Kunming's business system plans to continue monitoring market trends and implementing consumer policies to sustain economic momentum, particularly as the Lantern Festival approaches [9]. - The city aims to deepen the impact of the prize invoice trial and further promote the integration of commerce and tourism to convert holiday traffic into economic growth [9].

Group 1: Core Insights - Shanghai launched over 2,570 cultural and tourism activities for the 2026 Spring Festival, promoting the theme "Travel to Shanghai, Super New Year" to attract tourists [1] - Total online and offline consumption in Shanghai reached 60.35 billion yuan during the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with offline consumption at 36.55 billion yuan, up 15.4% [1] - The city welcomed 21.67 million tourists during the nine-day holiday, marking an 8.36% increase, with total tourism consumption amounting to 25.614 billion yuan, a 20.90% rise [1] Group 2: Inbound Tourism Growth - Shanghai is positioning itself as a leading destination for inbound tourism, attracting foreign visitors to experience traditional Chinese New Year celebrations [2] - The city introduced over 130 themed travel routes, which became popular on major OTA platforms, leading to a significant increase in inbound tourist numbers from countries like Greece, Slovenia, and Mexico [2] Group 3: Digital Payment Trends - Inbound tourists enjoyed digital conveniences such as mobile payments, with Alipay services seeing over 60% growth in consumption during the first five days of the Spring Festival [4] - Alipay's "Tap to Pay" feature saw a fourfold increase in transaction amounts from foreign tourists, with Shanghai Pudong Airport experiencing a 25-fold increase in transaction numbers [4] Group 4: Family and Multi-Generational Travel - The Spring Festival saw a rise in multi-generational family trips, with Shanghai's LEGOLAND reporting record visitor numbers, particularly from out-of-town tourists [8] - The city enhanced its tourism services to cater to families and elderly visitors, including the addition of accessible facilities and tailored services [8] Group 5: Consumer Incentives and Market Dynamics - Shanghai's consumer incentive policies, including a lottery for receipts, engaged over 3.9 million participants, significantly boosting retail and dining sectors [9] - Over 110 million yuan in consumption vouchers were distributed, leading to over 500 million yuan in retail and dining consumption, with a redemption rate exceeding 80% [10] - Major shopping districts in Shanghai reported substantial sales growth, with some areas seeing increases of over 30% year-on-year [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in consumer spending during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, with an average daily sales revenue growth of 13.7% compared to the previous year [1] - The restaurant sector experienced a notable surge, with dining revenue increasing by 31.2%, driven by family gatherings and special dining events [1] - Retail sales also saw substantial growth, with department store sales rising by 39.3% and internet retail sales increasing by 10.4% despite a high base from the previous year [1] Group 2 - The tourism market thrived during the holiday, with tourism-related service sales revenue growing by 39.6%, fueled by extended holiday periods [2] - The ice and snow economy, particularly in regions like Heilongjiang and Jilin, saw a remarkable increase in tourism-related service sales revenue, which rose by 62.4% [2] - Hainan's tourism sector benefited from the first long holiday post-border closure, with scenic area service sales revenue soaring by 70.9% [2] - There was a significant rise in digital cultural services and entertainment consumption, with sales revenue for digital culture services increasing by 38.8% and for performing arts venues by 136.6% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving a restaurant in Chongqing selling a roasted lamb that weighed significantly less after cooking has raised concerns about consumer rights and business practices in the food industry [1][2] Group 1: Incident Details - A consumer purchased a roasted lamb package from a restaurant, where the live lamb weighed 36 pounds but the cooked product weighed only 6.9 pounds [1] - The consumer raised concerns about the size of the cooked lamb, leading to an investigation by the local market supervision authority [1] Group 2: Investigation Findings - The investigation revealed that the restaurant had been feeding the lamb excessive amounts of corn and hay to artificially increase its weight before slaughter [1] - The local market supervision authority has taken action against the restaurant for violating consumer protection laws and has mandated a refund and compensation to the affected consumer [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of Beijing's market regulation during the Spring Festival was to ensure market order and safety through comprehensive inspections and innovative regulatory mechanisms [1][2] - Over 16,000 business entities were inspected, including nearly 1,000 key catering units for New Year's Eve dinners, emphasizing the enforcement of operational responsibilities [1] - A dual regulatory mechanism was established for over 1,000 food stalls at more than 30 Spring Festival fairs, ensuring the verification of ingredient qualifications and strict checks on procurement documents [1] Group 2 - Beijing set up over 400 price monitoring points to implement a "smart monitoring + precise warning" mechanism for over 40 essential livelihood products, including grains and meats [2] - The price monitoring system, in conjunction with the city's big data platform, allows for dynamic tracking and intelligent warnings to stabilize prices and ensure supply [2] - The market regulation department is actively combating counterfeit goods and illegal food additives, as well as addressing consumer rights violations such as price fraud and false advertising [2]

Core Viewpoint - Green Tea Group (06831.HK) anticipates a significant increase in profits for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with projected profits ranging from approximately RMB 460 million to RMB 508 million, representing an increase of about 31.4% to 45.1% compared to RMB 350 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 [1][2] Group 1 - The expected adjusted net profit for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, is projected to be between approximately RMB 481 million and RMB 532 million, which is an increase of about 33.2% to 47.4% compared to RMB 361 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 [1][2] - The profit increase is primarily attributed to several factors, including the continuous expansion of the store network, which is expected to increase revenue by approximately RMB 696 million to RMB 1,174 million compared to RMB 3,838 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 [2] - Ongoing improvements in operational efficiency are expected to enhance profitability at the store level, contributing to the overall profit increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - Green Tea Group (06831) expects to achieve a profit of approximately RMB 460 million to 508 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 31.4% to 45.1% [1] - The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be around RMB 481 million to 532 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 33.2% to 47.4% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Profit Growth - The increase in profit is primarily attributed to several factors: 1. Continuous expansion of the store network, leading to an increase in revenue by approximately RMB 696 million to 1.174 billion compared to the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, which had revenue of about RMB 3.838 billion [1] 2. Ongoing improvements in operational efficiency resulting in enhanced profitability at the store level [1] 3. Offset by listing expenses incurred in the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, estimated at around RMB 18 million [1] Adjusted Net Profit - The increase in adjusted net profit is mainly due to: 1. The continuous expansion of the store network contributing to the aforementioned revenue increase [1] 2. Sustained improvements in operational efficiency enhancing store-level profitability [1]

Core Insights - The average daily sales revenue in consumer-related industries during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday increased by 13.7% compared to the previous year, indicating a vibrant consumption market with notable highlights [1][3] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The "old for new" policy and prize invoice initiatives effectively stimulated consumer enthusiasm, leading to a 19% increase in sales revenue for smart home appliances, such as robotic vacuum cleaners and projection TVs [1] - The sales revenue from electric vehicle charging services surged by 163.9% during the holiday, reflecting the growing infrastructure for green services [1] Group 2: Tourism and Cultural Consumption - The extended Spring Festival holiday significantly boosted tourism-related service sales, which rose by 39.6% year-on-year [2] - The ice and snow economy, driven by the Winter Olympics, saw tourism service sales in key regions like Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Xinjiang increase by 62.4% [2] - Hainan's tourism services experienced a remarkable 70.9% growth as it welcomed a large influx of tourists during its first long holiday post-border closure [2] - Digital cultural services and performances saw substantial growth, with sales revenues increasing by 38.8% and 136.6%, respectively [2] Group 3: Food and Retail Services - The restaurant sector thrived during the holiday, with overall dining revenue increasing by 31.2%, including a 26.5% rise in formal dining services and a 42.1% increase in snack services [2] - Department store sales grew by 39.3%, while online retail saw a 10.4% increase, providing convenience for holiday shopping [2] Group 4: Economic Impact - The high growth in average daily sales revenue is attributed to three main factors: the extended holiday period, the effectiveness of the "old for new" policy, and the trial of prize invoices in certain cities, which collectively reflect the vitality and potential of China's consumption market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving the "Big Grassland Roast Whole Lamb" restaurant in Chongqing has raised significant public concern due to discrepancies in the weight of the lamb served compared to its initial weight, leading to an investigation by local authorities [2][3]. Group 1: Incident Details - A consumer purchased a roast lamb package for 1188 yuan, with the live lamb weighing 36 pounds at the time of selection [5]. - After cooking, the final weight of the lamb was only 6.9 pounds, excluding the head, blood, hooves, skin, and internal organs, which led to complaints from the consumer [2][6]. - The restaurant allegedly engaged in practices to artificially increase the weight of the live lamb by feeding it corn and hay before slaughter [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The Chongqing Nanan District Market Supervision Administration has mandated the restaurant to cease illegal activities and compensate the consumer according to the "refund one, compensate three" principle [3]. - The investigation aims to uphold market order and protect consumer rights, with potential legal consequences for the restaurant based on the findings [3]. Group 3: Business Explanation - The restaurant claimed that the weight loss after cooking is normal, stating that cooked lamb typically retains only about 40% of its original weight [8][11]. - They attributed the weight differences to individual variations among lambs, including their eating habits and activity levels, which can affect the final cooked product [11].