公司报告 | 年报点评报告 代糖龙头高速成长，盈利水平显著改善 【业绩总结】2024 年公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 11.52/2.46/2.31 亿元（同比+32.64%/+27.26%/+31.72%）；2025Q1 公司营业 收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 3.13/0.81/0.82 亿元（同比 +24.27%/+52.06%/+59.98%）。 百龙创园（605016） 证券研究报告 产能释放带来高速增长，健康甜味剂 Q1 收入翻倍。2024 年膳食纤维/健康 甜味剂/益生元/其他淀粉糖收入分别为 6.24/1.56/3.22/0.04 亿元（同比 +40.42%/+13.85%/+25.43%/-72.48% ） ， 毛 利 率 分 别 同 比 +2.64/-5.36/-0.89/+8.18pct。25Q1 膳食纤维/健康甜味剂/益生元收入分别为 1.70/0.50/0.86 亿元（同比+25.40%/105.31%/17.27%），收入比重分别为 55.27%/16.21%/27.92%（同比-2.48/+5.86/-3.27pct）。 海外市场需求旺盛，Q1 国外占 ...

证券研究报告 基础化工 | 化学制品 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 05 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | | | | 基本数据 | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | 月 | 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 11.20 | | | | 一 年 内 | 最 | 高 | / | 最 | 低 | | | 13.93/7.98 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanghai Chemspec (688602 CH) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents [1][2]. Core Insights - In 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -0.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 143.95%, with operating income of 675 million yuan, down 31.11% year-on-year [4][5]. - The geopolitical impact has deepened, leading to increased external uncertainties in international trade and weak overall market performance [4][5]. - The company expects a more optimistic outlook for 2025, with new materials actively developing metallocene co-catalyst projects and polyimide monomer projects, supported by large orders in the CDMO segment [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the new materials segment generated operating income of 358 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03%, with a gross profit margin of 2.70%, down 7.90 percentage points [6]. - The CDMO business reported operating income of 295 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.29%, with a gross profit margin of 23.17%, down 16.06 percentage points [6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating income of 243 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.27%, and a net profit of 31 million yuan, up 59.73% year-on-year [5]. Production and Expansion Plans - The ETO production line expansion is expected to be implemented in 2026, with a 50,000-ton project currently under construction, aiming for production of less than 30,000 tons [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in the sugar substitute market, with significant improvements in profitability. Revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 are projected to be 1.152 billion, 246 million, and 231 million CNY respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 32.64%, 27.26%, and 31.72% [1]. - The company is benefiting from capacity expansion and strong demand for health-oriented sweeteners, with Q1 revenue from health sweeteners doubling [1][2]. - The overseas market is showing robust demand, with foreign revenue accounting for nearly 70% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects a gross margin of 33.65% and a net profit margin of 21.33%, with improvements in cost management contributing to these figures [3]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 1.534 billion, 1.883 billion, and 2.261 billion CNY respectively [4]. - The net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 37% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 335 million, 416 million, and 513 million CNY respectively [4]. Market Dynamics - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with foreign revenue growing significantly due to increasing health trends globally [2]. - The demand for products like allulose is strong, driven by health-conscious consumers [2]. Cost Management - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to reduced operational costs from new production lines and a shift from outsourcing to in-house production of raw materials [3].

Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory cycle in the U.S. is likely transitioning towards an active destocking phase by 2025, with significant implications for various industries [1][2][3]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In February, U.S. total inventory increased by 2.45% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.25%. Sales increased by 3.45% year-on-year, down from 3.69% [2][3]. - The inventory cycle remains in a passive restocking phase due to "import grabbing," with Q1 net imports increasing by $359.26 billion year-on-year, of which over one-third ($129.71 billion) converted into inventory [2][3]. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industry categories, 8 are in a passive restocking phase, including upstream chemical products, building materials, midstream electrical equipment, and downstream durable consumer goods [4]. - Historical inventory percentiles show that total inventory is at a historical percentile of 30.5%, with building materials at 71.5%, automotive parts at 67.8%, and paper and forestry products at 53.8% [4]. Upstream Inventory Status - Half of the upstream industries are in passive restocking, while the other half are in active destocking [5][6][7][8]. - Specific sectors like oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels are in active destocking as of February 2025 [5]. Midstream Inventory Status - Inventory status is mixed, with paper and forestry products in active restocking, while electrical equipment and transportation are in passive restocking [9][10]. - Mechanical manufacturing is currently in passive destocking [9]. Downstream Inventory Status - The current passive restocking phase is prolonged, indicating potential "import grabbing" demand [11]. - Automotive parts are transitioning to active destocking as of February 2025, while other sectors like household durable goods and textiles remain in passive restocking [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.989 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 65.91% to 102 million yuan [6] - The first quarter of 2025 showed improvement with revenue of 1.071 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.56%, while net profit increased by 2.73% year-on-year and 233.12% quarter-on-quarter to 82 million yuan [5][8] - The gross profit margin improved to 21.81% in Q1 2025, an increase of 2.34 percentage points year-on-year and 2.84 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.989 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 18.46%, down 4.36 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 960 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.93%, but a net loss of 61 million yuan [5] - The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 1.071 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 21.81% [5][8] Business Segments - The renewable energy segment faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 21.49% to 1.730 billion yuan due to product price fluctuations and a contraction in the photovoltaic backplane business [6] - The transportation segment capitalized on the growth in the new energy vehicle market, achieving a revenue increase of 36.73% to 990 million yuan [6] - The electronics segment focused on high-growth areas such as consumer electronics and automotive electronics, generating a revenue of 615 million yuan, up 9.54% year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth to reach 4.608 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit projected at 186 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from 2024 [10] - The gross profit margin is anticipated to stabilize around 20% in the coming years, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [10]

中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁 伟奥 国 家 统 计 局 最 新 数 据 显 示 ， 2 0 2 5 年 4 月 份 ， 我 国 制 造 业 采 购 经 理 指 数 （PMI）为4 9 . 0%（前值50 . 5%），美国滥施关税影响初现。不过4月政 治局会议已经给出三大重要信号：一是保持国内储备政策的弹性；二是强 化底线思维，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期；三是加紧加快既定 政策的落实落地，加大加力重点领域的政策实施力度。 以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 国家统计局4月30日发布数据显示，2025年4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%（前值50.5%）。建筑业商务活动指数为51.9%，比上月下降1.5个百 分点；服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。关税的影响已全面传导至制造业企业。 供需同时收缩，出口影响较为严峻。 4月生产指数49.8%（前值52.6%）。新订单指数49.2%，新出口订单44.7%，分别下降2.6和4.3pct。4月需求下降较大， 尤其是新出口订单 ...

Revenue and Profit - The company achieved total operating revenue of 1.087 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 27.97 million yuan, up 26.75% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit decreased by 18.02% to 25.14 million yuan [1] Profitability - The company's gross margin improved to 14.92%, an increase of 0.88% year-on-year, and the net margin rose to 2.51%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.27% [2] Cost Control - Total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 101 million yuan, accounting for 9.26% of revenue, which is a decrease of 5.44% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [3] Cash Flow and Asset Status - Operating cash flow per share was 0.08 yuan, a significant decrease of 65.28% year-on-year, raising concerns about cash flow management [4] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to 880 million yuan, up 54.66% year-on-year, while accounts receivable rose to 785 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.32%, with accounts receivable to profit ratio at 1142%, indicating potential bad debt risk [4] Capital Structure - Interest-bearing debt increased to 1.001 billion yuan, up 7.41% year-on-year, with a cash to current liabilities ratio of only 64.17%, suggesting short-term debt repayment pressure [5] Business Model and Capital Return - The company's performance relies heavily on R&D and marketing, with a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.06%, indicating weak capital returns, and a net margin of 1.33%, suggesting low added value of products or services [6] Dividends and Financing - Since its listing, the company has raised a total of 1.717 billion yuan and distributed dividends totaling 655 million yuan, resulting in a dividend financing ratio of 0.38 [7]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C | | C | | | C | | | | C 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 动(bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.54 | -5.09 | DR007 | 1.78 | 3.35 | | | GC001 | 1.61 | -28.50 | GC007 | 1.68 | -17.00 | | CCC | SHBOR 3M | 1.75 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.60 | 0.00 | | I | 1年期国债 | 1.46 | -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.51 | -2.00 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.62 | -2.35 | 10年期美债 | 4.23 | -6.00 | | 品种 | 收 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][11][28] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 246 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27%. In the first quarter of 2025, the net profit reached 81.4 million yuan, a significant increase of 52% [1][13] - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 1.152 billion yuan, up 32.64% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 33.65% [1][12] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects, including a 30,000-ton dietary fiber project and a 15,000-ton crystalline fructose project, which are expected to contribute to sustained revenue and profit growth [1][11][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.152 billion yuan, a 32.64% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 246 million yuan, up 27.26% [1][12] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 313 million yuan, a 24.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 81.4 million yuan, reflecting a 52.06% growth [1][13] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 33.65%, while for Q1 2025, it improved to 39.74% [1][13] Business Segments - The company’s main business segments include prebiotics, dietary fibers, healthy sweeteners, and other starch sugars. In 2024, the prebiotics segment generated 322 million yuan in revenue, a 25.43% increase, while the dietary fiber segment saw revenue of 624 million yuan, up 40.42% [2][21] - The healthy sweeteners segment, driven by increased demand for allulose in overseas markets, generated 156 million yuan, a 13.85% increase, with allulose accounting for 14.12% of total revenue [2][21] Expansion Projects - The company is actively advancing its "Functional Sugar Drying Expansion Project" and "Thailand Health Project," which are expected to enhance profitability. The functional sugar project aims to increase production capacity for isomaltulose and other products [3][25][26] - The Thailand production base project is in the planning stage and is expected to start construction in the second or third quarter of 2025, aiming to produce 12,000 tons of crystalline allulose and 7,000 tons of liquid allulose annually [4][26] Market Outlook - The global market for allulose has grown from 33 million USD in 2019 to 173 million USD in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.26%. It is projected to reach 545 million USD by 2030 [9][27] - The approval process for allulose as a new food ingredient in China is progressing, with significant policy support expected to boost the market further [9][27]