2025 年 5 月 6 日 电力设备与新能源行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业月报 证券研究报告 新能源与电力设备组 分析师：姚遥（执业 S1130512080001） yaoy＠gjzq.com.cn 锂电 4 月洞察：电车储能销量持续走高，钴价止涨正极盈利企稳 本月行业重要变化： 1）锂电：4 月 30 日，碳酸锂报价 7.0 万元/吨，较上月下降 4.8%；氢氧化锂报价 7.0 万元/吨，较上月下降 0.4%。 2）整车：2025 年 3 月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达 113 万辆，同比+35.5%，环比+35.9%；1～3 月累计批发 285 万辆， 同比+43%。 行情回顾： 2025 年 4 月以来，锂电关联板块中除新能源车环节外，均有不同幅度的下跌，磷酸铁锂正极、锂电铜箔和柴发产业链 等环节跌幅较大，相对沪深 300 的涨跌幅超额分别为-8%、-7%和-5%。多数环节月度成交额较上月大幅下跌，只有新 能源车的月度成交额环比提升，市场关注度不减。锂电关联版块多数环节 3 年历史估值分位处于低值，锂电电解液、 负极和智能驾驶的 3 年历史估值分位仅个位数区间，未来存在估值修复的空间。 本月研究专题： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, highlighting a recovery in profitability and growth potential in these industries [2][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in promoting the use of advanced photovoltaic components, which is seen as a viable solution to address the issue of excess production capacity in the solar industry [7][8]. - The wind energy sector is experiencing a significant uptick in construction activity, with the first offshore wind project in Shandong officially commencing, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][8]. - The report notes that the performance of the photovoltaic and storage sectors is stabilizing, with signs of a turning point in profitability expected in the near future [2][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The National Energy Administration has issued a notice to encourage the use of advanced photovoltaic components in large-scale projects, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry [7][8]. - The photovoltaic sector is projected to maintain high demand in 2024, with an expected 277 GW of new installations, representing a 28% year-on-year increase [7][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in new installations, with 60 GW added, marking a 31% year-on-year growth [7][8]. Wind Energy - The Shandong Peninsula North L offshore wind project has officially started construction, contributing to the acceleration of offshore wind development in China [2][8]. - The wind energy sector reported a net profit of 12.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first year-on-year profit increase in three years [2][8]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the wind energy sector: improvement in profitability of turbine manufacturers, rising demand for offshore wind, and the release of profit elasticity in component prices [2][8]. Power Grid - The State Grid's second batch of bidding results for transmission and transformation equipment reached 17.64 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, indicating accelerated main grid construction [3][9]. - The report mentions the release of new bidding projects for distribution transformers and integrated products, with an estimated total bidding amount exceeding 6.5 billion yuan [3][9]. - The introduction of the basic rules for the auxiliary service market marks a significant step towards the market-oriented reform of power services in China [9][10]. New Energy Vehicles - The launch of the Lynk & Co 900, a six-seat plug-in hybrid SUV, has exceeded market expectations with a competitive pricing strategy [14][16]. - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of new energy vehicles, with a retail penetration rate of 52.3% in April 2025 [14][16]. Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells - The report indicates that hydrogen energy policies are expected to continue, with a focus on quality development and the promotion of the entire hydrogen industry chain [12][15]. - The hydrogen production capacity is projected to reach 120,000 tons per year by 2025, with significant growth in fuel cell vehicle production [12][15].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 7.613 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.15% [1] - Despite the revenue drop, the company managed to reduce its net loss to 1.338 billion yuan, indicating an improvement compared to the previous year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue growth of 5.90% year-on-year, reaching 2.004 billion yuan, with a slight recovery in gross margin [1] Financial Performance - The company's main product, phosphate-based cathode materials, saw a production volume of 236,600 tons in 2024, an increase of 15.31% year-on-year, while sales volume reached 225,700 tons, up by 5.52% [1] - The decline in overall performance was attributed to a significant drop in the prices of key raw materials, particularly lithium, and intensified market competition, leading to a substantial decrease in product prices and gross margins [1] R&D and Innovation - The company emphasized its commitment to research and development, investing 248 million yuan in R&D in 2024, focusing on key areas to enhance its technological leadership [2] - The company is advancing the development and mass production of new products, including next-generation lithium iron phosphate and high-performance additives, to strengthen its technological barriers [2] - The company aims to leverage five strategic pillars: customer enhancement, raw material cost reduction, manufacturing cost reduction, performance premium, and service value addition, to enhance its core competitiveness and ensure long-term sustainable growth [2]

2025高工钠电 产业峰会 主办单位： 高工钠电、高工产业研究院（GGII） 总冠名： 众钠能源 会议时间： 6月9日 会议地点： 苏州香格里拉大酒店（苏州虎丘区塔园路168号） 2025高工固态电池 技术与应用峰会 主办单位： 高工锂电、高工储能、高工产业研究院（GGII） 总冠名： 利元亨 会议时间： 6月10日 6月会议预告 会议地点： 苏州香格里拉大酒店（苏州虎丘区塔园路168号） 近期，印度尼西亚新能源市场迎来重要转折。 在韩国 LGES 正式宣布退出其在印尼的数百亿元大型项目之后，以华友钴业为代表的中国锂电企 业有望推进印尼锂电市场，华友钴业董事长陈雪华表示，或联合产业链伙伴共同推进（接手）该项 目。无独有偶，宁德时代也于近日传出消息，将寻求 10 亿美元（约 72 亿人民币）贷款用于印尼 的合资公司，该合资公司计划在印尼西爪哇省卡拉旺建设电池工厂。 不论从金额规模，还是产业链深度来看， 以中国锂电产业链集体取代韩国 LGES 大型锂电项目， 有望成为 2025 年国内锂电集体出海的一次"豪赌"。 据了解， LGES 在印尼的一揽子大型锂电项目涵盖镍矿加工、电池制造、回收利用等全产业链， 该项目总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is experiencing significant fluctuations, with Tianqi Lithium achieving a turnaround in Q1 2024 while Ganfeng Lithium continues to face losses, highlighting divergent strategies in a challenging market environment [1][2][10][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - Tianqi Lithium reported Q1 2024 revenue of 2.584 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 104 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 3.897 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Q1 2024 revenue was 3.772 billion yuan, down 25.43% year-on-year, with a net loss of 356 million yuan, although the loss narrowed from 439 million yuan in the previous year [1][5]. - In 2023, Tianqi Lithium faced a significant revenue drop of 67.75%, with a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan, while Ganfeng Lithium's revenue decreased by 42.66%, resulting in a net loss of 2.074 billion yuan, marking its first annual loss since 2010 [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Tianqi Lithium's Q1 2024 performance improvement is attributed to the resolution of several adverse factors affecting its 2024 results, including better pricing mechanisms for lithium concentrate and reduced production costs [3][4]. - The company also benefited from increased investment income from its associate SQM, which is expected to show year-on-year growth [4]. - Ganfeng Lithium did not disclose specific reasons for its continued losses in Q1 2024, but it indicated that the current lithium prices are likely at a relatively low point [5][6]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The lithium market is currently facing oversupply issues, with lithium prices continuing to decline, impacting the financial health of lithium salt manufacturers [7][9]. - As of April 30, 2024, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 67,900 yuan per ton, a drop of over 9% since the beginning of the year, which has affected cash flow for companies like Ganfeng Lithium [8]. - The industry is expected to see continued oversupply, with significant production increases anticipated in 2025, further pressuring prices [9]. Group 4: Strategic Directions - Tianqi Lithium is focusing on a long-term strategy of strengthening its upstream resources and expanding its midstream production capabilities, aiming for vertical integration in the lithium supply chain [10]. - Ganfeng Lithium is shifting its revenue focus towards lithium battery manufacturing, with a notable increase in the contribution of battery products to its overall revenue [11]. - The company is currently emphasizing its energy storage segment, which faces challenges due to significant overcapacity in the market [12].

制造·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 风电行业一季度景气度回升，收入同比增长 15%，归母净利润同比增长 3%，为近三年首次。零部件环节盈利显著修复，全产业链存货和应收账款 周转加速，看好 2025 年量利齐升与业绩估值双击。 • 光伏主产业链仍处于景气筑底状态，但储能逆变器环节表现亮眼。一季度 硅片、电池片及硅片组件辅材环节毛利率明显修复，电池片环节率先实现 毛利转正。建议关注经营稳健的头部公司及供需关系良好的核心辅材。 • 新能源车受益于以旧换新政策和出海加速，一季度销量稳定增长。锂电板 块自去年二季度进入复苏阶段，今年一季度逐步进入繁荣期，库存周期从 被动去库向主动补库转移。推荐具备低成本路线和强爆款打造能力的车企。 • 锂电产业链中，高压实密度材料的磷酸铁锂和六氟磷酸锂，以及电芯结构 件、辅材、负极铁锂、三元前驱体隔膜等细分赛道值得重点关注。关注固 态电池产业化进度及布局机器人、半导体等第二增长曲线的公司。 • 电网板块稳步增长，2024 年营收增速约 12%-13%，净利润保持稳定增 长。出海和主网设备环节资本开支高速增长，2025 年一季度电力设备出 口同比增长 17%。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the technology industry, particularly sectors such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and the Hang Seng Technology Index Core Points and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Trends**: Emphasis on accelerating investment in technology sectors during periods of market downturns, with a focus on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving as key areas for future rebounds [1][3] - **2025 Investment Focus**: Key industries to watch include leading service consumption companies and firms enhancing shareholder returns. Notable sectors for performance upgrades from mid-March to early May include precious metals, transportation, large finance, agricultural products, and food processing [1][5] - **Capital Expenditure**: Identified as a crucial driver for the technology market, with recent trends indicating increased investment from government and private sectors following the emergence of DeepSeek, which has altered expectations for domestic technological breakthroughs [1][6] - **Impact of Export Exposure**: Anticipated performance impact from the complete elimination of export exposure to the U.S. is estimated to be between 20% to 40%, potentially leading to 2-3 trading halts for individual stocks. However, this should not be interpreted as a signal of a comprehensive recession [1][7] - **May Market Outlook**: The market direction remains unclear, but two key themes are highlighted: potential rebounds in export chains due to easing U.S.-China relations, particularly in technology products, and the ongoing focus on technology sectors including AI, robotics, and new consumption trends [1][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Three-Phase Strategy for Tariff Impacts**: A structured approach to address recent tariff impacts includes: 1. Counter-cyclical strategies based on past trade disputes 2. Active management of market sentiment and performance expectations 3. Continued focus on technology sectors and self-sufficiency in critical areas like semiconductors and military materials [2] - **Long-term Investment Recommendations**: Industries suitable for long-term strategic investments include those with supply-side clearing such as Hong Kong internet, AH stock white goods, commercial vehicles, and lithium battery leaders, along with agricultural chemicals and pharmaceuticals [11] - **Annual Strategy Consistency**: The annual investment strategy remains unchanged, focusing on three main lines: AI and robotics, new consumption, and supply-side clearing sectors, with additional allocations to agricultural chemicals and military aerospace equipment [9][10]

电动车 24 年及 25Q1 财报总结：筑底完成，龙头率先复 苏 20250505 摘要 • 锂电行业维持高景气度，2025 年预计增长 25%，未来几年复合增速 15%-20%。尽管受关税冲击，增长确定性依然强劲，各环节头部公司优 势显著，海外扩张能力突出，推动第二增长曲线。 • 电池环节盈利稳健，材料端涨价后龙头盈利强劲，结构件环节类似。中游 材料中铁锂正极产品差异性和盈利恢复弹性较好，快充等环节表现出明显 差异性。三元正极因需求偏弱整体稍逊色，隔膜周期较慢。 • 电动车市场国内销量占全球 70%，增速高于全球平均水平。2024 年国内 增长 36%，Q4 达 43%，2025 年 Q1 同比增约 47%。全球储能市场 2024 年出货量超 320GWh，同比增长 50%-60%，2025 年 Q1 增长约 140%。 • 2024 年 Q4 电动车和储能利润分化，板块利润同比下降 6%，环比下降近 30%。2025 年 Q1 情况好转，板块利润同比增长近 100%，环比增长约 40%，毛利率和净利率分别提升 1-2 和 2-3 个百分点。 • 碳酸锂板块最差时期已过，一季度扭亏，但资金状况恶化导致资本开 ...

2025 年第一季度，锂电板块表现出色，产量和销量均有显著增长。具体来看， 中国动力电池和储能电池总产量达到 1,090 GWh，同比增长 41%；销量为 1,040 GWh，同比增长 42.5%。今年前一季度的同比增速达 74%，环比下降 接近 20 个百分点。预计全年同比增速将维持在 30%左右，相较于去年 42.5% 的增速有所回落，但仍然基于超过 1,000 GWh 的出货量基础上。 • 2025 年第一季度，中国锂电池总产量达 140GWh，同比增长 42.5%， 但增速较上一季度有所放缓。全年预计增速维持在 30%左右，仍基于超过 1,000GWh 的巨大出货量。 • 储能电池出口在 2025 年第一季度同比增长高达 32 倍，达到 24GWh，动 力电池出口也恢复增长，同比增长 34%，一季度出口达 38GWh，显示出 口市场强劲复苏。 • 锂电材料企业 2025 年第一季度收入约 2000 亿元，同比增长 10%，净利 润 199 亿元，同比增长 64%，毛利率提升至 19.22%，净利润率 8.6%， 正极、负极、电解液、隔膜等环节表现良好。 • 锂电板块扣非净利润虽从 2022 年高峰下滑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 1.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.27%, and a net profit of 32 million yuan, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 904% [2] - The company is experiencing a clear turning point in profitability, with significant improvements in both revenue and net profit [2] - The company's market share is continuously expanding, outperforming industry growth rates, which enhances its competitive position [3] - The company is actively pursuing new technologies under its Ai+ strategy, focusing on emerging markets such as AI glasses and robotics, which are expected to drive future growth [4] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 247 million yuan, 397 million yuan, and 550 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.01 yuan, 4.84 yuan, and 6.71 yuan [5][11] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit of 91 million yuan, up 81% [2][11] - Q1 2025 results show a revenue of 1.225 billion yuan and a net profit of 32 million yuan, indicating strong resilience and growth [2] Market Position - Global smartphone shipments are projected to recover, with IDC reporting a 3.4% year-on-year increase to 1.23 billion units in 2024, and Canalys noting a 5.1% increase to 205 million units [3] - The company is maintaining a revenue growth rate that exceeds industry averages, contributing to its expanding market share [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the Ai+ strategy to navigate the competitive lithium battery market, which is facing price declines [4] - The strategic direction includes developing advanced technologies such as silicon-based batteries and solid-state batteries, which are essential for AI applications [4] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 247 million yuan in 2025, 397 million yuan in 2026, and 550 million yuan in 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio of 18, 11, and 8 times [5][11]