今日早参 2026 年 1 月 27 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：进退两难的日元再度迎来"干预窗口" 上周五（1 月 23 日），日元在日央行发布会后以及美国交易时间出现快速升 值，截至周一（1 月 26 日）的两个交易日内累计升值 2.6%至 154.2 日元/美 元，背后主要是美国和日本释放出"利率检查"（"rate check"）信号，市场 猜测美日未来或联合干预日元汇率。历史上，日本当局在"利率检查"后较 短时间内就会启动汇率干预，若外汇干预落地，短期或推动日元升值。鉴于 日央行货币政策大幅落后于利率曲线，或已错失"优雅转身"的最佳时间窗 口：日本财政扩张预期叠加利率落后于曲线，日债收益率或易上难下，日元 资产亦或进入高波动阶段。 风险提示：日本众议院选举结果超预期；日本通胀水平超预期。 研报发布日期：2026-01-26 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 宏观：1 月 FOMC ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is stable with high price-volume consistency, indicating a sideways trend in the market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment indicator value as of January 23 is 2.35, a slight increase from 2.25 the previous week, indicating a neutral sentiment [3] - Key indicators such as the proportion of transactions in the Sci-Tech 50 and inter-industry trading volatility have shown signs of recovery, suggesting a marginal improvement in market risk appetite [6][15][17] - The price-volume consistency indicator remains high, reflecting a strong correlation between market attention and stock price movements, indicating active market sentiment [9] - The financing balance ratio has shown a slight upward trend, indicating that leveraged funds are maintaining a high level of sentiment, suggesting overall market risk appetite remains positive [22] Group 2: Industry Trends and Performance - The scoring model indicates that non-ferrous metals, communication, and defense industries are leading in trend scores, with non-ferrous metals achieving a short-term score of 100.00, the highest among industries [30][31] - The average industry congestion level is highest in utilities, computers, media, banks, and oil and petrochemicals, while the lowest is in environmental protection, textiles, and light manufacturing [33] - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is negligible, indicating that high congestion sectors like oil and petrochemicals are experiencing significant price increases, while sectors with low congestion are lagging [35] Group 3: Technical Indicators - The RSI indicator has shown a decline, suggesting a decrease in short-term upward momentum and an increase in selling pressure, indicating a potential weakening of market sentiment [25][37] - The model indicates that small-cap and growth styles are currently favored, although there are signs of weakening in the short-term signals for these styles [38]

北京京东方技术开发有限公司，成立于2016年，位于北京市，是一家以从事计算机、通信和其他电子设 备制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本3800万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，北京京东方技术开发有限 公司共对外投资了1家企业，参与招投标项目92次，专利信息3871条，此外企业还拥有行政许可4个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 国家知识产权局信息显示，京东方科技集团股份有限公司取得一项名为"一种折叠显示装置和制作方 法"的专利，授权公告号CN118711461B，申请日期为2024年7月。 天眼查资料显示，京东方科技集团股份有限公司，成立于1993年，位于北京市，是一家以从事计算机、 通信和其他电子设备制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本3741388.0464万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分 析，京东方科技集团股份有限公司共对外投资了73家企业，参与招投标项目303次，财产线索方面有商 标信息775条，专利信息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可47个。 成都京东方光电科技有限公司，成立于2007年，位于成都市，是一家以从事仪器仪表制造业为主的企 业。 ...

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China has granted a patent titled "Preparation Method of Semiconductor Structure, Semiconductor Structure, Semiconductor Device" to Jingxin Cheng (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. and Hefei Jinghe Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. The patent authorization announcement number is CN120076391B, with an application date of April 2025 [1] - Jingxin Cheng (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2020 and is primarily engaged in technology promotion and application services. The company has a registered capital of 200,000 RMB and holds 245 patents along with one administrative license [1] - Hefei Jinghe Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. was founded in 2015 and focuses on the manufacturing of computers, communications, and other electronic devices. The company has a registered capital of 2,007,591,697 RMB, has invested in 10 enterprises, participated in 636 bidding projects, holds 41 trademark records, and possesses 1,586 patents along with 22 administrative licenses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongguan Dingtong Precision Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "the company" or "Dingtong Technology") experienced a significant stock price fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price increase of over 30% across three consecutive trading days (January 22, 23, and 26, 2026) [2][4]. Group 1: Stock Trading Anomaly - The company's stock price deviation reached a cumulative increase of over 30% within three consecutive trading days, qualifying as an abnormal trading situation according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations [2][4]. - As of January 26, 2026, the company's closing price was 151.88 yuan per share, with a rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 101.42, significantly higher than the industry average P/E ratio of 54.3 [2]. Group 2: Company Operations and Major Events - The company confirmed that its recent daily operations are normal, with no significant changes in market conditions or industry policies, and no substantial fluctuations in production costs or sales [5]. - There are no ongoing plans for major events such as mergers, acquisitions, or significant asset restructuring as of the announcement date [6]. Group 3: Media Reports and Market Rumors - The company verified that its satellite communication connector products have received customer certification and are being delivered according to orders, although this segment contributes less than 1% to overall revenue [7]. Group 4: Shareholder Actions - The company disclosed that its controlling shareholders and related parties did not engage in buying or selling company shares during the abnormal trading period [8]. - A share reduction plan was disclosed on December 11, 2025, with the reduction period from January 6 to April 3, 2026, and the plan was completed on January 23, 2026 [9][16].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has deepened. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries remained unchanged and rebounded, respectively, with inflation expectations slightly decreasing [1][15] - Offshore US dollar liquidity is generally loose, while the domestic interbank funding situation is balanced but tight. The term spread (10Y-1Y) has narrowed [1][15] Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity has significantly decreased, with the volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 500 indices rising. Sectors such as military, electric new energy, consumer services, chemicals, and home appliances have trading heat levels above the 90th percentile [2][25] - The volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 500 indices has increased, while the volatility of various sectors remains below the 80th historical percentile [2][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with liquidity metrics for various sectors remaining below the 60th historical percentile [2][35] Institutional Research - The research heat for sectors such as electronics, electric new energy, automotive, computers, and machinery is high, while only the banking sector has seen a sequential increase in research heat [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has continued to rise [4][50] - Specific sectors such as agriculture, non-ferrous metals, consumer services, computers, and electronics have seen upward adjustments in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [4][50] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index, CSI 500, and Shanghai Composite 50 for 2026/2027 have been increased, while the forecasts for the CSI 300 have been adjusted downwards/upwards [4][51] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, but there continues to be a net purchase of A-shares. The ratio of total buying and selling in sectors like electronics, automotive, and home appliances has increased [5][31] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, the main net purchases have been in electronics, electric new energy, and chemicals, while net sales have occurred in computers, media, and military sectors [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has continued to decline, reaching its lowest level since late July 2025. The net selling last week was 8.265 billion yuan, with significant net purchases in non-ferrous metals, finance, and food and beverage sectors [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases across various sectors has decreased [6][38] - Margin financing continues to net buy large-cap growth/value sectors [6][39] Dragon and Tiger List Trading Activity - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list has continued to rise, although the total trading amount on the list as a percentage of total A-share trading has decreased [7][41] Active Equity Fund Positions - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, while ETFs have seen significant net redemptions. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in light industry, banking, and pharmaceuticals, while reducing positions in electric new energy, communications, and chemicals [8][45] - The correlation of active equity funds with large/mid-cap growth/value has increased, while the correlation with small-cap growth/value has decreased [8][48] - The scale of newly established equity funds has continued to rise, with active and passive funds seeing respective increases and slight decreases [8][50]

1月26日，北京航空航天大学发布讣告，沉痛悼念李未同志—— ing 李未同志讣告 中国共产党党员,中国科学院院士,著名计算 机科学家、教育家,我国计算机和人工智能领域重 要奠基人之一,第十、十一届全国政协委员,北京 航空航天大学原校长李未同志,因病医治无效,于 2026年1月25日23时10分在北京逝世. 享年82 岁。 李未同志1943年６月生于北京，1979年加入 中国共产党。1961年至1966年在北京大学数学力 学系学习。1968年起在北京航空学院（现北京航空 航天大学）任教。1979年至1983年赴英国爱丁堡 大学学习,获计算机科学博士学位。1997年当选中 国科学院院士。2002年1月至2009年5月任北京 航空航天大学校长。 李未同志是国际上最早研究和发展并发程序语 言的结构操作语义模型的学者之一，在实用并发语 言操作语义、形式理论序列和修正演算等方面取得 了开创性研究成果。在我国率先倡导开展海量信息 计算的理论与方法研究。在国际上提出群体软件工 程 概念,凝练的群体智能新研究方向被列入国家 新一代人工智能发展战略规划。创建软件开发环境 . 19 September 2017 11:12 PM ...

截至收盘，科创50指数下跌1.4%，科创综指下跌2.2%，科创200指数、科创成长指数均下跌2.6%，科创100指数下跌2.7%。 资金近日回流相关产品， Wind数据显示，科创50ETF易方达（588080）连续两个交易日"吸金"，合计约3亿元。 科创板系列指数基本情况跟踪 (2026年1月26日) 科创50ETF易方达 低费率 科创100ETF易方达 作要主要 跟踪上证科创板100指数 该指数由科创板中市值中等且流动 性较好的100只股票组成,聚焦中 小科创企业,电子、电力设备、医 药生物、计算机行业合计占比超 75%,其中电子、电力设备行业占 比较高 令日 该指数涨跌 226. 2倍 -2. 7% 该指数 滚动市盈率 跟踪上证科创板50成份指数 | 该指数由科创板中市值大、流动性 | 令日 | 该指数 | 该指数自 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 好的50只股票组成, "硬科技"龙 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来 | | 头特征显著,半导体占比超65%, | | | | | 与医疗器械、软件开发、光伏设备 | -1.4% | 180. 4倍 | 98. | | ...

李未同志1943年6月生于北京，1979年加入中国共产党。1961年至1966年在北京大学数学力学系学习。 1968年起在北京航空学院（现北京航空航天大学）任教。1979年至1983年赴英国爱丁堡大学学习，获计 算机科学博士学位。1997年当选中国科学院院士。2002年1月至2009年5月任北京航空航天大学校长。 李未同志是国际上最早研究和发展并发程序语言的结构操作语义模型的学者之一，在实用并发语言操作 语义、形式理论序列和修正演算等方面取得了开创性研究成果。在我国率先倡导开展海量信息计算的理 论与方法研究。在国际上提出群体软件工程概念，凝练的群体智能新研究方向被列入国家新一代人工智 能发展战略规划。创建软件开发环境国家重点实验室并担任首届主任。曾任国务院学位委员会委员、国 家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）专家组副组长、国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）首席科学 家。获国家自然科学二等奖、国家科技进步二等奖、国家级教学成果一等奖、何梁何利基金科学与技术 进步奖、光华科技进步一等奖、俄罗斯齐奥尔科夫斯基奖章、首都劳动奖章等荣誉。 北京航空航天大学网站1月26日发布讣告： 中国共产党党员，中国科学院院士，著 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot gold has first surpassed $5000 per ounce [4] - Silver and copper prices are expected to remain strong through 2026 due to global energy transition and AI revolution, with Silver as a key beneficiary [5][6] - Silver Company (601212) experienced a limit-up on January 26, 2023, closing at 11.41, reflecting a 2.57% increase [6] Group 2: Photovoltaics - Elon Musk announced plans to build 100GW of solar capacity over the next three years for data centers and space AI satellites [7] - JunDa Co. is positioned as the largest third-party supplier of N-type TOPCon solar cells, with a focus on overseas capacity and space photovoltaic applications [7][8] - JunDa Co. saw a price increase of up to 10.97% on January 22, 2023 [8] Group 3: Computing Power - Tencent's chairman Ma Huateng announced a cash activity of 1 billion yuan to promote AI applications, aiming to replicate the success of WeChat red envelopes [9] - QingCloud Technology is focusing on AI computing cloud services and has seen a price increase of 15.25% [10] - The outlook for computing power in 2026 suggests significant breakthroughs across various levels, with Dawei Technology experiencing a limit-up [17][18] Group 4: Natural Gas and Oil - U.S. natural gas prices surged past $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 due to winter storms [19] - International oil prices rose nearly 3%, benefiting companies like Intercontinental Oil and Gas, which saw a limit-up on January 26, 2023 [19][20]