Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the launch of futures and options for coated printing paper, marking the introduction of the world's first financial derivatives for cultural paper, which will enhance risk management tools for the paper industry [2][3]. Group 1: Market Context - The coated printing paper market in China is nearly 50 billion yuan, with the introduction of futures and options aligning with the core needs of industry chain enterprises to hedge against price fluctuations and secure operating profits [3]. - China is the largest producer and consumer of coated printing paper globally, with a projected production of 9.48 million tons and apparent consumption of 8.71 million tons in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The paper industry faces significant revenue growth pressures due to complex domestic and international market conditions, increasing the demand for risk management tools [2][3]. - The introduction of futures and options will create a "pulp-paper" integrated risk management chain, assisting companies in managing raw material cost fluctuations and uncertainties in finished product pricing [3]. Group 3: Environmental Considerations - The coated printing paper futures and options will promote a green circular economy by prioritizing companies with relevant green certifications during the delivery certification process [4]. - The industry aims to achieve a low-carbon transition and contribute to the dual carbon goals through market-driven mechanisms [4]. Group 4: Regulatory and Operational Framework - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will enhance risk prevention and control measures, ensuring smooth market operations and effective functionality [5].

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.23% on August 21, with Minshida leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3771.1, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11919.76, down 0.06% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qifeng New Material (002521) saw a significant increase of 4.63%, closing at 9.49 with a trading volume of 220,100 shares and a turnover of 206 million yuan [1] - Forest Packaging (605500) rose by 1.56%, closing at 10.40 with a trading volume of 204,300 shares and a turnover of 211 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Huawang Technology (605377) with a 1.46% increase and Yibin Paper (600793) with a 0.90% increase [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector experienced a net outflow of 128 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 148 million yuan [2] - The data indicates that retail investors are more active in the paper sector despite the overall decline in the market [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Yibin Paper (600793) had a net inflow of 15.65 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 11.52 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Xianhe Co. (603733) saw a net inflow of 6.46 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant outflow of 11.94 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Qifeng New Material (002521) had a net inflow of 4.04 million yuan from institutional investors, with a notable outflow from speculative funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and issues surrounding the import of recycled pulp in China following the ban on solid waste imports, highlighting the need for stricter regulations and standards to prevent environmental hazards and ensure product quality [1][7][12]. Group 1: Import Ban and Market Changes - Since January 1, 2021, China has banned the import of solid waste, including waste paper, leading to a significant increase in the import of recycled pulp, which rose from 300,000 tons in 2018 to 3.36 million tons in 2022, an increase of 11 times [2]. - Major paper companies such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, and Sun Paper have invested in overseas recycled pulp projects to adapt to the new regulations [2]. Group 2: Quality and Safety Concerns - There are significant quality issues with imported recycled pulp, particularly with dry-ground pulp, which often contains high levels of impurities and bacteria, posing health risks [10][11]. - The new national standard for recycled pulp, effective November 27, 2023, aims to set technical requirements and prevent the entry of "foreign garbage" into the country, but it is currently a recommended standard rather than mandatory [7][12]. Group 3: Environmental and Economic Implications - The production of recycled pulp, especially through dry grinding, is associated with high energy consumption and environmental pollution, as it requires additional processing in China after import [10][11]. - Experts suggest that the government should enhance the standards for imported dry-ground recycled pulp and implement strict inspections to ensure compliance with quality and environmental safety [12][15]. Group 4: Industry Recommendations - Industry insiders have called for the establishment of a mandatory national standard for imported recycled pulp, emphasizing the need for rigorous quality control and environmental assessments [12][15]. - There is a push for increased support for domestic paper companies that comply with environmental regulations and for those investing in overseas recycled pulp projects to improve their technological capabilities [16].

Core Viewpoint - The industry is calling for enhanced regulation of imported recycled paper pulp, improved standards for dry-process recycled paper pulp, and increased guidance and support for paper companies establishing overseas factories [1][11]. Group 1: Industry Background - Since January 1, 2021, China has banned the import of solid waste, including waste paper, leading to a shift towards importing recycled paper pulp [1][2]. - Major paper companies such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Sun Paper, Lee & Man Paper, and Jingxing Paper have invested in overseas recycled paper pulp projects [2]. Group 2: Quality and Standards - The newly released national standard for recycled paper pulp (GB/T43393-2023) aims to address fiber raw material shortages while preventing "foreign garbage" from entering the country [7]. - The standard includes technical requirements related to radioactive pollution, hazardous waste, heavy metals, and physical and chemical indicators [7]. Group 3: Environmental and Health Concerns - Recycled paper pulp, particularly dry-milled pulp, poses significant environmental and health risks due to high impurity levels and potential contamination [8][9]. - A study showed that untreated waste paper samples contained high levels of bacteria and pests, raising concerns about public health [9]. Group 4: Recommendations and Future Actions - Experts suggest that customs should inspect all goods declared as recycled paper pulp to ensure compliance with quality and safety standards [15]. - There is a call for the government to provide support for domestic paper companies that adhere to regulations and to assist those lacking resources for process upgrades [16].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that Wuzhou Special Paper's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 is 122 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, with Q2 2025 net profit at 57 million yuan, down 42.2% year-on-year. The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability as the industry outlook improves [1] Group 1 - The decline in profitability is primarily attributed to the full production of the Hubei base, changes in product structure, and pressure from certain paper types such as heat transfer paper [1] - Future prospects are optimistic due to bottoming out of pulp prices and seasonal demand recovery, with expectations for marginal improvement in packaging paper prices in Q3, alongside the gradual entry of low-cost pulp into inventory [1] - The food card paper and cultural paper segments are expected to face pressure from intensified competition, with both volume and price anticipated to decline year-on-year, although the company's self-produced pulp cost optimization is expected to stabilize profitability in Q2 [1] Group 2 - The market for glassine, drawing paper, and industrial liner paper is expected to remain stable in terms of volume and price [1] - The heat transfer paper segment is projected to experience short-term pressure on profitability due to supply-demand mismatches [1] - The Hubei base's full production is expected to maintain steady profitability for packaging paper [1] Group 3 - As of H1 2025, the company's inventory, accounts receivable, and accounts payable turnover days are 50.15, 44.93, and 37.64 days respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.25 days for inventory, a decrease of 11.25 days for accounts receivable, and a decrease of 5.39 days for accounts payable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has experienced a significant stock increase of over 4%, with a current price of HKD 5.64, following the announcement of an expected annual profit growth of 165% to 190% for the fiscal year ending June 2025, driven by increased sales and a notable decline in raw material costs [1][1][1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates an annual profit of approximately RMB 2.1 billion to RMB 2.3 billion, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase [1][1] - The profit growth is primarily attributed to a rise in sales volume and a faster decline in raw material costs compared to product price reductions, leading to an increase in gross profit [1][1] Cost Management - According to a report from CICC, the key to the company's better-than-expected annual performance lies in significant cost reductions, particularly in self-produced pulp costs, which have exceeded expectations [1][1] - The integration of pulp and paper production at the Beihai base in Guangxi has been crucial for profit recovery in various paper grades [1][1] Market Conditions - The price of thermal coal has seen a significant year-on-year decline, providing additional profit margins for different paper grades [1][1] - Looking ahead, the report indicates that coal prices have begun to recover since the second half of 2025, suggesting that the energy cost advantage may narrow, necessitating close monitoring of changes in self-produced pulp costs and the pricing strategies for certain paper grades during peak seasons [1][1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the next 1 - 2 years, China's offset printing paper (double - offset paper) industry will face significant challenges in its supply - demand pattern. With the accelerating decline of the school - age population, the total market demand is under downward pressure. Meanwhile, production capacity is still being added, and inventory reduction in the industry depends on the active reduction of factory operating rates. Overall, before the industry integration and the elimination of backward production capacity are completed, double - offset paper will remain in a long - term low - prosperity cycle [4][97]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Offset Printing Paper Basics - **Definition**: Offset printing paper is a type of cultural paper, mainly used in teaching materials, books, periodicals, and flyers. Double - offset paper, with sizing on both sides, is the most common type in the market and is often used to represent offset printing paper [15]. - **Classification**: It can be classified by size (regular size 787mm×1092mm and large size 889mm×1194mm), quantitative (usually 60 - 180g/㎡), brightness (high - white, natural - white, etc.), and calendering grade (super - calendered and normal - calendered) [16][17]. - **Quality Standards**: The new national standard GB/T30130 - 2023 for offset printing paper came into effect on July 1, 2024, replacing the previous one. It made adjustments to technical requirements such as quantitative, thickness, and brightness [18]. - **Packaging, Storage, and Logistics**: The mainstream packaging methods are roll packaging and flat - sheet packaging. Storage and logistics are relatively stable, with local sales being the main mode, and transportation mainly by road, supplemented by water and rail for medium - and long - distance [21][22]. 2. Double - Offset Paper Industry Chain Introduction - **Position in the Industry Chain**: Double - offset paper is the product of the mid - stream papermaking process, close to end - consumer markets [23]. - **Cost Composition**: The production of double - offset paper mainly uses wood pulp, accounting for about 70%. Chemical additives are also added. The pulp ratio varies among different manufacturers [27]. 3. Double - Offset Paper Supply: Domestic Oversupply and Declining Operating Rate - **Rapid Expansion of Domestic Capacity**: Since 2021, the domestic double - offset paper capacity has been in a rapid expansion cycle. From 2020 - 2024, the capacity increased from 1224 million tons/year to 1652 million tons/year, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.8%. If the planned new capacity of 225 million tons/year in 2025 is fully realized, the capacity will reach 1877 million tons/year by the end of the year, a 13.6% year - on - year increase [29]. - **Capacity Distribution**: The capacity is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal areas and some central China provinces, with East China having the largest share. The industry concentration is increasing [35][37]. - **Moderate Growth in Production**: From 2015 - 2024, the production increased from 830 million tons to 948 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of about 1.5%. The growth is moderate due to the inability of the growing capacity to be fully absorbed by the downstream market, leading to a decline in the operating rate [40]. - **Capacity Switching between Cultural Paper Types**: Most modern cultural paper machines can switch production between double - offset paper, coated paper, and other types. However, switching is restricted by high costs and is usually considered only under long - term loss expectations [43]. 4. Double - Offset Paper Demand: Slow Growth Affected by Population Structure and New Media - **Demand Structure**: From 2015 - 2024, the domestic demand for double - offset paper increased from 761 million tons to 903 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of about 1.9%. Teaching materials accounted for about 40% of the total demand from 2018 - 2024, with obvious seasonality [44]. - **Teaching Material Demand Affected by Population Inflection Point**: The demand for teaching materials is closely related to the number of school - age students. The number of school - age children is expected to decline significantly from 2026, which will gradually lead to a downward trend in the demand for double - offset paper for teaching materials in the next 1 - 2 years [70]. - **Social Book Demand Impacted by Paperless Trend and New Media**: The retail market for books and periodicals has been affected by the paperless trend and new media such as short - videos. The growth rate of retail sales of book - magazine products has been declining [73]. 5. Double - Offset Paper Import and Export: Net Export with Limited Impact on Supply - Demand - **Import Situation**: China's double - offset paper imports are mainly from Asia, with Indonesia accounting for a large proportion. The average import volume in recent years is about 22 million tons, with an average import dependence of about 2.6%. The impact on the total market supply is limited [91]. - **Export Situation**: Since 2022, the export volume has increased. The average export volume from 2022 - 2024 is about 98 million tons, with an average export dependence of about 10.2%. The export destinations are relatively scattered [95]. 6. Double - Offset Paper Supply - Demand Balance: Oversupply and Pressured Demand - The supply - demand pattern of the double - offset paper industry will face significant challenges in the next 1 - 2 years. With the decline in demand and the continuous addition of capacity, the industry will be in a low - prosperity cycle until industry integration and the elimination of backward capacity are completed [97].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Liu Youran (Pulp), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jin (Methanol), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures contract 01: The previous settlement price was 5,442 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,380 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.14% [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5,100 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,800 - 5,820 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's August wood pulp offers: Softwood pulp Yinxing at 720 USD/ton, natural pulp Jinxing at 590 USD/ton, hardwood pulp Mingxing at 520 USD/ton, stable compared to June [8] - World's 20 major pulp - producing countries in June: Chemical commodity pulp shipments increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 2.4% and hardwood pulp up 10.1% [8] - European wood pulp in July 2025: Inventory was 683,200 tons, down 0.3% month - on - month and up 8.7% year - on - year; consumption was 814,200 tons, up 6.8% month - on - month and down 2.1% year - on - year [8] - China's pulp imports in July: 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year [8] - As of August 14, 2025: The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 4.96% month - on - month, with inventories at Qingdao and Changshu ports rising [8] Group 3: Industry News - On August 18, the CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options on the SHFE. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of offset printing paper, with a market size close to 50 billion yuan. The futures and options will help improve pricing efficiency and guide production planning [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include import softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp futures - spot price difference, softwood - hardwood price difference, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, copperplate and offset paper prices and spreads, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and spreads, and USD/CNY exchange rate [15][17][19][23][25][29]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised its earnings forecast for Nine Dragons Paper (02689) for FY25-26 by 25% and 49% to 1.8 billion and 2.5 billion HKD respectively, citing better-than-expected self-produced pulp cost advantages [1] Group 1: Earnings and Performance - The company expects FY25 earnings to be between 2.1 billion and 2.3 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 165% to 190%, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 1.7 billion to 1.9 billion HKD, up 126% to 153% [1] - CICC maintains an "outperform" rating for the industry and has raised the target price by 33% to 6.0 HKD, which implies an 11% upside potential [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - For FY25, the company is estimated to produce 21 million tons of paper, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a focus on expanding the pulp paper category and enhancing raw material layout [2] - The company plans to invest in new production bases in Guangxi and Hubei, with a total production capacity expected to exceed 30 million tons by the end of FY25 [2] Group 3: Cost Management - The core reason for the better-than-expected performance is attributed to a significant reduction in costs, particularly in self-produced pulp, and a notable decline in coal prices [3] - The average prices for various paper types have decreased, with boxboard paper, double glue paper, and white card paper down by 4%, 9%, and 7% respectively [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Debt - The company is entering a new phase of high capital expenditure, with FY25 capital spending expected to exceed 13 billion HKD [4] - There is a need to monitor the company's debt levels closely, as capital expenditures may remain relatively high in FY26 [4]

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY25-26年业绩预期，主要因自制浆成本控制超预期，预计FY25盈利21-23亿元，同比增加165%至190% [1] Group 1: Performance and Financials - FY25业绩上调25%至18亿元，FY26上调49%至25亿元，FY27引入25亿元 [1] - 目标价上调33%至6.0港元，隐含11%上行空间 [1] - FY25归母净利润预计17-19亿元，同比增加126%至153% [1] Group 2: Production and Market Strategy - FY25造纸销量预计2100万吨，同比增长10% [2] - 公司战略重心为扩浆纸品类及强化原料布局，预计FY25投产120万吨白卡纸、60万吨文化纸、175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆 [2] - 预计到2025年末，纸+浆产能将突破3000万吨 [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - 业绩超预期的核心在于自制浆成本控制及动力煤价格下跌 [3] - 预计2025年下半年煤价环比修复，需关注自制浆成本变化对利润的影响 [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - FY25资本开支预计在130亿元以上，FY26资本开支可能仍偏高 [4] - 需关注公司负债率变化及最新投产规划 [4]