Core Insights - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China marks the first by a Canadian PM since December 2017, aiming to revitalize Canada-China relations that had deteriorated since the Meng Wanzhou incident in December 2018 [1][4] - The visit resulted in the signing of eight cooperation documents, including the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap," and a joint statement emphasizing the importance of economic collaboration [1][4] Trade Relations - A significant highlight of the visit was Carney's announcement to eliminate the 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, contingent on a set quota of 49,000 vehicles per year, which will enjoy a 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff rate [3][4] - Canada plans to adjust its unilateral measures on Chinese steel and aluminum products, indicating a shift towards more cooperative trade practices [3][4] Economic Context - The trade volume between China and Canada is projected to reach nearly 120 billion Canadian dollars in 2024, with China being Canada's second-largest trading partner after the U.S. [5] - The outcomes of this visit are seen as crucial for Canada to address domestic economic challenges exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, while also allowing China to strengthen its international partnerships amid rising global uncertainties [5] Future Outlook - The resilience of Canada-China relations will depend on both domestic pressures within Canada and external pressures from the U.S., particularly in light of the upcoming review of the USMCA [7] - The ongoing dialogue and cooperation established during this visit are expected to create a more predictable and effective relationship between Canada and China, which is essential for both nations' strategic interests [6][7]

02 期现市场 05 需求端 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润及库存 利空频发， 粕类价格下跌 蛋白粕周报 2026/01/17 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） 03 供给端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：据外媒消息报道，中加两国政府达成初步贸易协议，中方承诺把加拿大菜籽的进口合计税率一次性降至约15%。据USDA出口销售 数据显示，截至1月8日当周美国出口大豆206万吨，当前年度累计出口大豆3064万吨；其中当周对中国出口大豆122万吨，当前年度对中国累 计出口812万吨。据USDA数据显示，1月预测2025/26年度全球大豆产量为425.67百万吨，环比12月预测增加3.13百万吨，较上年度减少1.48 百万吨。库存消费比为29.4%，环比12月增加0.39个百分点，较上年度减少0.44个百分点。其中，1月预测美国大豆产量为115.99百万吨，环 比12月预测增加0.238百万吨，较上年度减少3.05百万吨；1月预测巴西产量为178百万吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 27th Peking University Guanghua New Year Forum focuses on "domestic demand-led growth" as a key theme, aligning with the central economic work conference's emphasis on strengthening the domestic market for the new phase of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][19]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum was held on January 17, 2026, at Peking University, featuring prominent speakers including university officials and industry representatives [3][21]. - The event aims to contribute to the theoretical framework for the 14th Five-Year Plan and stimulate discussions on building a robust domestic market [1][19]. Group 2: Keynote Speeches - Liu Shijun discussed the shift from supply constraints to demand constraints in China's economic growth, emphasizing the need for a focus on consumption and human capital investment [7][24]. - Gao Peiyong highlighted the importance of stimulating residents' consumption as a key driver of economic growth, addressing challenges such as weak consumer confidence and the need for systemic reforms [10][26]. - Liu Qiao analyzed the paradox of low consumer spending in relation to high per capita consumption, suggesting policy reforms to enhance disposable income and consumer rates [12][29]. Group 3: Roundtable Discussion - The roundtable featured discussions on how new supply can create new demand, with industry leaders addressing the structural mismatches in consumer markets [14][32]. - Ma Tiemin pointed out the need for agricultural product market reforms to address supply-demand mismatches, advocating for digital tools and innovative production methods [15][33]. - Other participants emphasized the importance of understanding consumer behavior shifts and the need for companies to adapt their strategies to meet evolving market demands [16][34][35]. Group 4: Future Directions - Zhang Zheng summarized that creating new demand through new supply is a comprehensive process involving value creation, technological empowerment, and supply chain upgrades [18][36]. - The forum underscored the necessity for collaborative efforts among policymakers, capital providers, and entrepreneurs to foster a sustainable environment for innovation and growth [18][36].

Core Viewpoint - Canada is shifting its trade strategy by reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) to 6.1% and allowing the import of 49,000 units annually, marking a significant move towards a more independent trade policy amidst US-China tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Carney, has announced a reduction in punitive tariffs on Chinese EVs, which previously reached 100%, allowing for a more favorable trade environment [3]. - The new policy allows for the import of 49,000 Chinese EVs annually, which constitutes less than 3% of Canada's new car market, while simultaneously negotiating lower tariffs on Canadian agricultural products exported to China [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The agreement is seen as a win-win for Canada, providing consumers access to EVs that are 20%-30% cheaper than North American models, while also securing a vital market for Canadian agricultural products like canola and lobster [3][5]. - The reduction of tariffs on canola to 15% and the elimination of tariffs on lobster and peas starting March 2026 are significant concessions from China, enhancing the economic relationship between the two countries [3]. Group 3: Strategic Balance - Canada’s approach illustrates a strategic balancing act, allowing it to maintain relations with the US while also engaging with China, thus avoiding a binary choice in international relations [5][8]. - The Canadian government aims to learn from China’s advancements in EV technology, suggesting that collaboration may be more beneficial than isolation for the development of its domestic EV industry [5]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns domestically regarding the potential impact on local workers and industries, with some provincial leaders expressing dissatisfaction with the perceived inequality of the trade deal [5]. - Internationally, the US has warned Canada about the potential repercussions of this decision, indicating that Chinese EVs may not be allowed in the US market, which could complicate Canada's trade dynamics [5][8].

Core Insights - The event "Jilin Gathering Good Goods - Jilin's Annual Fair for Small and Micro Enterprises" aims to empower small businesses and promote local economic development through a multi-faceted platform [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by the Jilin Provincial Federation of Industry and Commerce and Yuxiaofei Guochao Agriculture, featuring participation from a thousand entrepreneurs and a hundred brands [1]. - It includes a morning exhibition of products and an afternoon entrepreneur annual meeting, focusing on agricultural products, cultural creative products, and consumer goods [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Development Focus - The event addresses the challenges faced by small and micro enterprises in Jilin, such as narrow sales channels and weak branding, by creating direct sales pathways [3]. - It aims to ensure that high-quality local products reach households directly, thereby injecting real momentum into the private economy [3]. Group 3: Youth Empowerment Initiatives - A notable highlight is the inclusion of a section dedicated to empowering university students in entrepreneurship, reflecting the social responsibility of the organizers [4]. - The event provides free exhibition spaces, product design support, market channel connections, and policy consultation for university entrepreneurial teams [4]. Group 4: Future Plans - The Jilin Provincial Federation of Industry and Commerce plans to continue developing this event into a regular platform for empowerment and a long-term incubator for student entrepreneurship [6]. - The collaboration aims to enhance the quality and efficiency of "Jilin brand" industries and support the growth of small and micro enterprises and young entrepreneurs [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that open cooperation and mutual benefit remain the mainstream of international economic and trade relations, as demonstrated by the recent agreements between China and Canada [1][3] - During the visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China, a broad consensus on deepening economic and trade cooperation was reached, resulting in the signing of the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap" [1] - The agreement reflects the complementary nature of the two economies and serves as a positive example for the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations in the current international environment [1] Group 2 - China will further open its agricultural product market to Canada, including adjustments to trade measures for Canadian canola, driven by the upgrading of domestic consumption demand [2] - This move aims to provide Chinese consumers with more high-quality agricultural product options and stabilize agricultural trade between the two countries, benefiting both sides [2] - The elevation of the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee from a vice-ministerial to a ministerial level is a significant highlight, facilitating regular communication and addressing trade disputes [2] Group 3 - The mutual opening of agricultural imports from China and the optimization of electric vehicle market access by Canada are expected to bring tangible benefits to businesses and consumers in both countries [3] - There remains vast cooperation potential in areas such as green economy, digital economy, and technological innovation between China and Canada [3] - The outcomes of the recent discussions inject new momentum into bilateral relations and send a positive signal to the international community regarding the mainstream of open cooperation and mutual benefit in economic and trade relations [3]

Core Insights - The 2026 Yunnan Zhaotong New Year Goods Festival was launched in Shanghai, showcasing over a hundred high-quality local products from Zhaotong, including apples, bamboo shoots, and specialty sauces, aimed at promoting "Zhao brand" products beyond the mountains and into urban markets [1][2] - Zhaotong is recognized as a significant production base for apples, Tianma, bamboo shoots, and beef, with geographical indication products like "Zhaotong Apples" and "Yiliang Tianma" gaining popularity both domestically and internationally [1] - The festival integrates local intangible cultural heritage with food products, creating a unique culinary experience that highlights the flavors of Zhaotong [1] Sales and Marketing Strategy - Following the three-day festival, Zhaotong products will continue to be featured in Shanghai through "pop-up stores and physical stores" throughout the Spring Festival, with activities such as live streaming sales and consumer tastings planned [2] - The initiative is expected to generate over 10 million yuan in online and offline sales, benefiting more than 10,000 local farmers in Zhaotong [2] Future Plans - Zhaotong will return to Shanghai during the "Five-Five Shopping Festival" in May with new products, continuing the dialogue between mountain and sea flavors [3]

Core Insights - The Netherlands' agricultural exports are projected to reach €137.5 billion in 2025, marking an 8.4% year-on-year increase, and this will be the tenth consecutive year of growth in agricultural exports [1] Export Market Analysis - The European Union remains the largest market for Dutch agricultural exports, with exports to Belgium expected to grow by 9% to €17.1 billion and exports to Germany projected to reach €34.6 billion, reflecting a 12% increase [1] Product Category Breakdown - Key export categories include: - Dairy products and eggs: €13.3 billion - Cocoa and cocoa products: €12.4 billion (fastest growth) - Horticultural products: €12.3 billion - Meat products: €12.1 billion - Fruits: €9.6 billion [1] Import Trends - Agricultural imports to the Netherlands are anticipated to be €95.1 billion in 2025, representing an 11.3% increase compared to 2024 [1] Price Influence - The growth in both agricultural exports and imports is primarily driven by rising prices [1]

Core Points - The U.S. has finalized a tariff agreement with Taiwan, reducing the tariff rate from 20% to 15% for Taiwanese goods, while requiring Taiwan to provide $250 billion in investment and $250 billion in credit guarantees [1][2][3] - The agreement is seen as a strategic move to bolster the U.S. semiconductor industry and is characterized by U.S. officials as essential for maintaining Taiwan's favor with the U.S. administration [1][3][5] - The deal mandates TSMC to build at least four additional semiconductor fabs in Arizona, extending previous commitments [1][3] Summary by Sections Tariff Agreement Details - The tariff rate for Taiwanese goods is set at 15%, which is the lowest among U.S. trading partners with similar agreements [2][7] - Taiwan has secured "most favored nation" treatment for semiconductors and related products, which includes a commitment to invest $250 billion in the U.S. semiconductor sector [1][2] Economic Implications - The investment commitments from Taiwan are substantial, with $500 billion representing 56.8% of Taiwan's GDP, compared to 12.8% for Japan and 18.8% for South Korea [2][7] - The agreement is designed to tie tariff benefits to Taiwan's investment and production capabilities in the U.S., which could lead to significant shifts in Taiwan's semiconductor industry [3][7] Political Reactions - The Taiwanese government, particularly the DPP, has framed the agreement as a victory, while opposition parties express concern over the potential risks and economic burdens [2][4][5] - Critics argue that the deal may lead to a significant outflow of Taiwan's semiconductor industry to the U.S., raising concerns about the long-term viability of Taiwan's local industry [3][4][8]

Core Insights - Canada has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles from 100% to 6.1%, allowing the import of up to 49,000 units, marking a return to pre-trade conflict conditions [3][5] - This policy shift is seen as a rational correction to previous trade policies that failed to protect local industries effectively while increasing consumer costs [5][10] - The adjustment reflects Canada's recognition of the competitive advantages of the Chinese electric vehicle industry, which has established a comprehensive supply chain and technological leadership [7][8] External Factors - The Chinese electric vehicle industry has developed a strong global presence, with advantages in core component development, vehicle manufacturing, and after-sales service [7] - Chinese automakers are expanding their market share not only in Asia but also in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, becoming essential players in the global new energy supply chain [8] Internal Considerations - Canada’s previous reliance on the U.S. for trade has exposed it to risks, as seen in recent trade disputes that have affected its manufacturing and agricultural sectors [10] - The decision to allow Chinese electric vehicles is a strategic move to diversify trade relationships and enhance domestic supply options while supporting energy transition goals [10] Broader Implications - The tariff reduction is part of a larger effort to improve Canada-China relations, with both countries seeking to enhance cooperation in various sectors, including clean energy and agriculture [12][14] - The joint statement from both nations emphasizes a commitment to resolving trade differences through dialogue and collaboration, moving towards a more integrated economic partnership [14] Market Dynamics - The entry of Chinese electric vehicles is expected to increase competition in the Canadian market, potentially benefiting consumers with more choices and lower prices [18][20] - While some local companies express concerns about increased competition, the overall market dynamics may drive innovation and efficiency within the domestic industry [20] Future Outlook - The successful implementation of this policy and the potential for ongoing cooperation between Canada and China will depend on various factors, including political dynamics and market responses [22] - This policy shift signifies a new phase in Canada’s trade strategy, moving away from a singular focus on the U.S. and towards a more independent and balanced approach [22]