Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of Q3 performance, indicating a potential valuation shift in the new consumption sector [2] - The report highlights various sectors including paper manufacturing, exports, new tobacco, smart glasses, home furnishings, gold and jewelry, two-wheelers, pets, cross-border e-commerce, IP retail, and maternal and child products, each with specific insights and recommendations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Manufacturing - Overseas pulp mills continue to suspend operations, maintaining strong pulp prices. The report suggests monitoring companies like Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., and Nine Dragons Paper for potential recovery in cultural paper prices [2][3] Exports - The report notes renewed tariff disputes and emphasizes the importance of export leaders with sufficient overseas capacity. Companies like Craft Home and Yongyi Holdings are highlighted for their global layout [2][3] New Tobacco - HILO's entry into the European market is noted, with expectations for significant growth in Italy. The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [2][3] Smart Glasses - Meta's new product is experiencing high demand, indicating a potential breakthrough for the smart glasses industry. Companies like KANAT and Mingyue Optical are recommended for investment [2][3] Home Furnishings - The report indicates a weakening market in October, with expectations for further deterioration in the housing market. Companies like Gujia and Midea are suggested for their stable cash flow [2][3] Gold and Jewelry - The report notes strong sales during the National Day holiday, with brands like Chow Tai Fook expected to raise prices. Companies like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Sang Sang are highlighted for their growth potential [2][3] Two-Wheelers - Taotao Industry is projected to see significant profit growth, driven by electric low-speed vehicles. Companies like Yadea and Aima Technology are recommended for their market share potential [2][3] Pets - The report highlights strong sales performance during the National Day holiday, with brands like Desire and Frigat showing significant growth. Companies like Petty and Zhongchong are suggested for their competitive advantages [2][3] Cross-Border E-commerce - The report discusses the Amazon fall promotion and the increasing dominance of top sellers. Companies like Anker Innovations and Jihong Holdings are recommended for their global strategies [2][3] IP Retail - MINISO's new store format and Pop Mart's successful Halloween blind box sales are noted as trends in the retail sector. Both companies are suggested for their innovative approaches [2][3] Maternal and Child Products - The report emphasizes the deepening channel transformation in the maternal and child industry, with companies like Kidswant and Aiyingshi leading the way [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - As of October 10, 2025, the stock price of Shanying International (600567) has increased by 2.78% to 1.85 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 10.759 billion CNY, ranking 3rd in the paper industry and 1755th in the A-share market [1] Company Announcements Summary - As of September 30, 2025, a total of 878,259,000 CNY of the "Eagle 19 Convertible Bonds" has been converted, resulting in 494,821,672 shares being issued, which accounts for 10.77% of the total shares before conversion [1][3] - From July 1 to September 30, 2025, 862,087,000 CNY of convertible bonds were converted, leading to the issuance of 489,822,103 new shares, with 145,675,979 shares coming from the company's repurchase account [1][3] - The total share capital increased from 5,471,330,563 shares to 5,815,476,687 shares due to the conversion of bonds [1] - The controlling shareholder's stake was diluted from 29.90% to 28.13% as a result of the conversion [1][3] Share Buyback Progress - The company initiated a share buyback plan on June 23, 2025, with a budget of 500 million to 1 billion CNY, and a maximum buyback price of 2.50 CNY per share, aimed at employee stock ownership plans or convertible bond conversions [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the company has repurchased 145,213,438 shares, representing 2.65% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 282.07 million CNY [2][3] - The highest repurchase price was 1.99 CNY per share, and the lowest was 1.87 CNY per share [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is taking measures to enhance its operational capabilities and mitigate debt risks by collaborating with local government-established entities for financing support [1][2] Group 1: Financing and Support - The company announced a RMB 2.31 billion syndicated loan to support its production resumption efforts, with all participating banks having completed their approvals [1] - To meet the loan conditions, the company’s subsidiary, Shouguang Kunhe, will provide collateral in the form of land and property valued at up to RMB 206.35 million, with a guarantee period not exceeding 5 years [1] - Another subsidiary, Chenming Leasing, will also provide collateral for the loan, valued at up to RMB 23.34 million, with the same guarantee period [1] Group 2: Debt Risk Mitigation - The government-established companies, Weifang Xingchen and Jilin Xingchen, aim to assist the company in resolving debt risks and facilitating production resumption [2] - The company plans to provide joint liability guarantees for Jilin Xingchen, which will collaborate with Jilin Bank for additional financing [1][2] - The collateral for Jilin Xingchen will be provided by the company’s subsidiary, Jilin Chenming, with a value of up to RMB 240 million and a guarantee period not exceeding 5 years [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600793 | 宜宾纸业 | 23.80 | 5.36% | 12.07万 | | 2.87亿 | | 600966 | 博汇纸业 | 5.16 | 3.20% | 18.34万 | 9362.99万 | | | 002012 | 凯恩股份 | 5.54 | 2.21% | 13.07万 | 7221.21万 | | | 605377 | 华旺科技 | 9.46 | 2.05% | 1 22.88万 | | 2.15亿 | | 600308 | 华泰股份 | 3.65 | 1.67% | 18.76万 | 6822.56万 | | | 920394 | 民士达 | 42.64 | 1.50% | 1.79万 | 7619.35万 | | | 002521 | 齐峰新材 | 9.28 | 1.42% | 6.63万 | 6110.85万 | | | 600963 | 岳阳林纸 | 4.51 | 1.35% | 22.29万 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Jingxing Paper's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 63.13%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 10, Jingxing Paper's stock price was 6.46 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 9.182 billion CNY [1]. - The stock experienced a decline of 2.12% during the trading session, with a trading volume of 1.193 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 14.13% [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the stock has increased by 11.19%, and over the past 20 days, it has risen by 27.17% [1]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - For the first half of 2025, Jingxing Paper reported a revenue of 2.629 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.0338 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.37% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 286 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 29.6064 million CNY distributed in the last three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, the number of shareholders for Jingxing Paper was 93,700, a decrease of 3.95% from the previous period, with an average of 11,948 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 4.11% [2]. Group 4: Business Overview - Jingxing Paper, established on November 1, 1996, and listed on September 15, 2006, primarily engages in the production and sale of industrial packaging paper, cardboard, and various types of household paper [1]. - The company's revenue composition includes 70.02% from raw paper, 14.39% from household paper, 6.72% from cardboard, 5.94% from other products, and 2.93% from recycled pulp board [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the General Administration of Customs regarding the importation of recycled paper pulp aims to enhance regulatory measures and prevent the entry of "foreign waste" into China, particularly focusing on the distinction between "dry" and "wet" processing methods [3][5][8] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulation requires importers to specify the processing method of recycled paper pulp as either "dry" or "wet" on customs declarations, which is intended to strengthen import supervision and management [3][5] - Since January 1, 2021, China has banned the import of solid waste in any form, aiming to curb the influx of foreign waste [3][4] Differences Between Processing Methods - "Dry" processing involves minimal purification, leading to the importation of contaminated materials, while "wet" processing includes thorough purification steps, resulting in higher quality recycled pulp [4][5] - Dry processed pulp is often referred to as "more dangerous foreign waste" due to its potential contamination with plastics, heavy metals, and microorganisms [4][5] Impact on the Industry - The new regulations are expected to increase the workload for importers, who must now ensure accurate reporting of their production processes, potentially leading to stricter inspections and higher compliance costs [5][6] - Companies relying on low-cost dry pulp may face increased raw material costs and production adjustments, prompting a shift towards higher quality recycled or virgin pulp [8] Long-term Implications - The announcement signifies the end of the "dry pulp" era, with expectations that it will reduce the import of low-quality materials and promote a transition to more environmentally friendly production methods [8] - The effectiveness of these regulations will depend on the enforcement and accompanying measures to ensure compliance and prevent fraudulent declarations [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the General Administration of Customs marks the end of the era of dry pulp imports, aiming to regulate the import of recycled pulp and enhance supervision to prevent the entry of "foreign garbage" into China [1][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new regulation requires importers to specify the production method of recycled pulp as either "dry" or "wet" on customs declarations, increasing the scrutiny of imported materials [1][4]. - The regulation is a response to the environmental hazards posed by dry pulp, which is essentially shredded solid waste, and aims to prevent the import of hazardous materials [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The new rules will increase the workload for importers, who must ensure accurate reporting of production processes and verify the sources of their materials, potentially leading to higher operational costs [4][8]. - Companies relying on low-cost dry pulp may face pressure to adjust their production processes or seek alternative raw materials, leading to short-term supply chain disruptions [8]. - Long-term, the regulation is expected to drive the industry towards greener practices, encouraging a shift from low-quality dry pulp to higher-quality recycled or virgin pulp, thereby improving overall product quality [8]. Group 3: Environmental Concerns - Dry pulp production lacks adequate purification processes, allowing contaminants like plastics and heavy metals to enter the production cycle, posing significant health and environmental risks [2][3]. - The previous lack of stringent checks on imported recycled pulp has led to the entry of solid waste under the guise of recycled materials, necessitating the new regulatory measures [3][4]. Group 4: Historical Context - The initial national standard for recycled pulp allowed for dry pulp to address fiber shortages in the paper industry, reflecting a balance between industry needs and environmental concerns at the time [5]. - The understanding of the risks associated with dry pulp was limited when the standards were set, leading to a regulatory framework that was more permissive than protective [5].

Core Viewpoint - Guanhao High-tech's stock price has shown a positive trend in recent trading sessions, with a year-to-date increase of 5.47% and a notable rise in trading volume and market capitalization [1][2]. Company Overview - Guanhao High-tech, established on July 15, 1993, and listed on June 19, 2003, is located in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province. The company specializes in the production and sale of carbonless copy paper, thermal fax paper, microcapsules, computer printing paper, and various specialty papers [2]. - The company's main revenue sources include white card paper (50.59%), thermal paper (25.10%), self-adhesive materials (14.13%), and other specialty papers [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Guanhao High-tech reported a revenue of 3.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -57.93 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 168.35% [3]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.143 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 567 million yuan distributed over the past three years [4]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 44,600, a decrease of 2.11% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 2.16% to 39,258 shares [3]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 12.4043 million shares, a decrease of 1.128 million shares compared to the previous period [4].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shanying International has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.19%, while the company faces a year-to-date decline of 4.59% in stock price, indicating potential volatility in the market [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shanying International reported a revenue of 13.842 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.8154 million yuan, down 63.17% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 1.807 billion yuan, with 46.1256 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shanying International is 189,100, a decrease of 5.84% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 6.20% to 28,929 shares [2]. - The third-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 97.5038 million shares, which is an increase of 10.8828 million shares from the last period [3]. Market Activity - As of October 10, 2023, Shanying International's stock price is 1.87 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 148 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.38%, leading to a total market capitalization of 10.875 billion yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds is 7.9853 million yuan, with significant buying and selling activities observed in large orders [1].

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Core View: In October, supported by seasonality and cost, pulp prices may have a phased rebound. However, without significant improvement in industry profits, it is difficult to have a trend change, and the pulp market will mainly fluctuate at a low level [7] - Strategy: Range operation, short near-term contracts and long far-term contracts [7] - Important Variables: Macroeconomic policies, supply disruptions, and demand performance [7] Group 1: Market Review - In September, pulp prices fluctuated at a low level with a monthly decline of 2.8%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, and the Sino-US leaders' call promoted trade negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year with a slight month-on-month decline, and the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to slow down to 3.4%. The pulp peak season in September fell short of expectations, and the fundamentals remained weak [9] - The FOB prices of imported wood pulp showed a mixed trend, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The cost support for imported softwood pulp was relatively weak. In the European market, the consumption of chemical pulp in August increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the inventory of chemical pulp increased by 11.3% year-on-year. In August, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries increased by 10.3% year-on-year, with softwood pulp up 5% and hardwood pulp up 14.7%. It is expected that the subsequent imports will remain at a relatively high level compared to the same period [9] - As of late September, the inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.8% month-on-month. Although September entered the traditional consumption peak season, downstream paper mills lacked confidence, processing profits were difficult to improve, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was poor. The average monthly price of imported softwood pulp in September decreased by 2.23% compared to the previous month, while that of imported hardwood pulp increased by 1.08% [9] - Arauco's September wood pulp FOB prices were as follows: softwood pulp Silver Star at $700/ton, natural pulp Venus at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Star at $540/ton [9] Group 2: Global Commodity Pulp Shipments Increase Year-on-Year - Global commodity pulp shipments increased year-on-year. According to PPPC, in July, the softwood pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries were 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.22% and a year-on-year increase of 4.11%; the hardwood pulp shipments were 2.65 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.69% and a year-on-year increase of 11.08% [17] - In July, the ratio of global commodity chemical pulp shipments to production capacity decreased seasonally but remained at a relatively high level compared to the same period. It decreased by 9.49% compared to the previous month and increased by 7.29% compared to the same period last year. In July, the inventory days of softwood pulp for global producers were 50 days, basically the same as the previous month and 7 days more than the same period last year; for hardwood pulp, it was 45 days, 1 day more than the previous month and 2 days less than the same period last year [17] - China's pulp imports decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year in August. In August, China imported 2.65 million tons of pulp, a month-on-month decrease of 8.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. From January to August, the cumulative pulp imports were 24.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. By variety, in August, the imports of softwood pulp were 610,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%; the imports of hardwood pulp were 1.26 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [17] - The inventory in major ports continued to decline in September. As of late September, the inventory in major domestic ports and regions was approximately 1.99 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous month. Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, while that in Changshu Port decreased by 11.8% [17] Group 3: No Obvious Improvement in Downstream Market Demand - The year-on-year growth rate of China's cumulative output of machine-made paper slowed down. In August 2025, the output of machine-made paper and paperboard was 13.919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 106.659 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [38] - The finished product inventory of China's papermaking and paper products industry decreased. In August, the inventory of the papermaking and paper products industry was flat year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month. The finished product inventory decreased by 1.1% year-on-year and 2.4% month-on-month [38] - In September, the prices of downstream base paper showed a mixed trend, and the demand growth was relatively limited. As of September 28, the monthly average price of the white cardboard market was 3,960 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase compared to the previous month. In September, the cost pressure in the market remained high, and paper mills raised prices by 100 yuan/ton. The new production capacity in Central China was postponed, and terminal inventories were low, with mainly rigid demand replenishment [38] - As of September 28, the monthly average price of the tissue paper market was 5,647 yuan/ton, a 1.06% increase compared to the previous month. In September, several paper enterprises in Southwest China shut down or reduced production, the market supply tightened, and paper enterprises raised prices to sell. The prices in Guangxi also showed an upward trend driven by the price of bagasse pulp [38] - As of September 28, the monthly average price of the offset printing paper market was 4,807 yuan/ton, a 2.77% decrease compared to the previous month. In early September, the idle production lines in Shandong resumed production, increasing the market supply pressure. Downstream printing factories received average orders. Some factories in South China shut down briefly due to weather, and the consumption of base paper was slow. Coupled with the delay of publishing tenders, the overall market sales were slow [39] - As of September 28, the monthly average price of the coated paper market was 4,968 yuan/ton, a 4.13% decrease compared to the previous month. In September, some large-scale idle production lines resumed production, increasing the industry supply. Distributors actively reduced inventories to avoid price decline risks. Downstream printing and packaging orders were average, and the consumption speed of base paper was slow [39] Group 4: Differentiated Trends in Gross Profit Margins of Wood Pulp Paper Products - The overall gross profit margins of wood pulp paper products showed a differentiated trend. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year decline in operating income of the papermaking and paper products industry was 1.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in total profit was 18.8%, with the overall decline slightly narrowing [50] - In September, the monthly average of major raw material costs fluctuated weakly compared to the previous month, and the prices of terminal paper products showed a mixed trend. The overall gross profit margins showed a differentiated trend. By variety, in September, the gross profit margin of white cardboard increased by 2.03 percentage points compared to the previous month; the gross profit margin of tissue paper slightly increased by 0.04 percentage points; the gross profit margin of offset printing paper decreased by 1.77 percentage points; and the gross profit margin of coated paper decreased by 3.06 percentage points [50]