广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 19 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

Group 1 - The total value of foreign trade in Liaoning Province reached 304.8 billion yuan in the first five months of this year, with exports increasing by 12.1% to 161.55 billion yuan, setting a historical record for the same period [1] - Despite a slight year-on-year decline of 1.8% in total import and export value, the decline has narrowed by 1.4 percentage points compared to the first four months, indicating a clear trend of stabilization and recovery [1] - Private enterprises have emerged as the main force in foreign trade, with an import and export value of 158.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, accounting for 52.1% of the province's total, up 5.5 percentage points from the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The structure of trade methods is optimizing, with general trade totaling 195.74 billion yuan, accounting for 64.2% of the total. Bonded logistics have surged, with imports and exports reaching 48.62 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.2% [1] - Liaoning's trade with the EU and ASEAN remains strong, with import and export values of 44.78 billion yuan and 43.58 billion yuan respectively. Trade with ASEAN has shown a robust growth rate of 14% [2] - Exports of electromechanical products, a key pillar, reached 80.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, accounting for 49.7% of total exports [2] Group 3 - The increase in exports to emerging markets and free trade partners, along with the significant rise in the share of private enterprises, reflects the effectiveness of national and local policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade [3] - The achievements in foreign trade are indicative of the successful transformation and upgrading of Liaoning's industries, enhancing the international competitiveness of its enterprises [3] - The strong performance in foreign trade is expected to provide solid external support and confidence for the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China [3]

Group 1 - The "618" shopping festival in China has been extended to 39 days, starting from May 13 and ending on June 20, which is 7 days earlier than last year, aiming to boost consumer spending amid global economic uncertainties [1] - Major e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD.com have simplified their promotional rules this year, eliminating complex discount calculations and focusing on straightforward discount methods to enhance consumer experience [2] - The sales of agricultural products, particularly lychees, have surged during the "618" festival, with JD.com reporting a significant increase in sales due to direct sourcing from Guangdong [3][4] Group 2 - The "618" festival has attracted international attention, with foreign companies increasing their stock for the event, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese market [5][6] - China's retail market is showing signs of vitality, with the retail sales growth rate reaching 6.4% in May, the highest since December 2023, supported by strong consumer spending during the Labor Day holiday and government subsidies [6][7] - Despite external challenges such as trade conflicts, the demand in the Chinese market remains stable, with experts suggesting that the retail sector has significant growth potential [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration, imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese goods, has led to a significant decline in the U.S. stock market, erasing all gains since the last presidential election [1][3]. Economic Impact - The overall earnings of S&P 500 companies may decline by 2.8% due to the tariff policy, with Barclays analysts indicating that the market had not fully assessed the potential risks associated with import tariffs [3]. - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico could lead to a 0.7% increase in core inflation and a 0.4% contraction in GDP [3]. - Nomura Securities forecasts that the U.S. GDP growth rate could drop to 0.6% by 2025, while Barclays' model suggests a potential negative growth of 0.1% [3]. Trade Relations - Canada and Mexico are crucial suppliers of agricultural products to the U.S., with significant reliance on U.S. markets for their exports (80% for Canada and 84% for Mexico) [3]. - The Midwest U.S. refineries heavily depend on Canadian crude oil, and the tariffs could lead to a rapid increase in gasoline prices in that region [3]. - Mexico, as the largest buyer of U.S. diesel and gasoline, may seek alternative suppliers from Europe and Asia, potentially disrupting the North American energy system [3]. Consumer Confidence and Market Reactions - Consumer confidence has sharply declined, with the index dropping to 98.3 in February, marking the largest monthly decline since August 2021 [5]. - A survey indicates that 57.1% of U.S. investors hold a pessimistic view of the stock market for the next six months, with bearish sentiment at historical highs [5]. - Job creation in the non-farm sector has slowed significantly, with only 151,000 new jobs added in February, falling short of market expectations [5]. Policy Instability - The Trump administration's tariff policy has faced rapid changes, including exemptions for major automakers and delays in implementation, highlighting the uncertainty in policy-making [7]. - The tariffs are harming U.S. manufacturers that produce in Canada and Mexico, affecting their ability to sell goods to American consumers [7]. - The overall economic environment is described as a "perfect storm," making it difficult for businesses to plan long-term strategies [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly economic index rebounded. The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index of WEI decreased, while the demand sub - index and the supply - demand gap increased [1]. - Production declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate dropped slightly, while the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased [1]. - High - frequency infrastructure indicators declined. The cement shipping rate and cement mill operating rate decreased, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased [1]. - The decline in commercial housing sales narrowed. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities improved, but the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased [2]. - Consumption rebounded. The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars increased significantly, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen also increased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers decreased [2]. - Exports rebounded. South Korea's export year - on - year in early June increased, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also improved [2]. - Pork prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork decreased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased [3]. - Industrial product prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index and Brent crude oil spot price increased slightly, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price, Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price, and cement price index decreased [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the WEI demand sub - index was 5.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the supply - demand gap was 1.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was - 6.1%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.0%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants was - 2.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 41.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The cement mill operating rate was 39.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The asphalt plant operating rate was 31.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 4.7%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 10.2%, down 11.5 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars was 19.0%, up 13.0 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 21.2%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 2.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 1.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early June was 5.4%, up 5.3 percentage points from late May. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 35.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 18.3%, up 7.0 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was - 1.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 9.6%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 3.6%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 11.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Brent crude oil spot price was - 16.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price was - 14.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price was - 30.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 1.5%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous value [3].

油脂：进口成本抬升 油脂全线收涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 1 / 3 三、观点及策略 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | SI | ਵੀ | 日 | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月18日 | 元/呼 | 8084.00 | 7972.00 | 112.00 | 1.40% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月18日 | 元/吨 | 8518.00 | 8446.00 | 72.00 | 0.85% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月18日 | 元/吨 | 9703.00 | 9583.00 | 120.00 | 1.25% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月17日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1074.00 | 1070.00 | 4.00 | 0.37% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月17 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 l数据已 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/18 | 指标 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -24 | -29 | 2500 2000 | ===== 19/20 ===== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 | | - 23/24 | 24/25 | | | 天津 日照 | -94 -124 | -29 | 1500 1000 | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | -154 | -29 | -500 | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 | | | ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.56%，报收 67.64 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.08%，报收 13525 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 3985 手至 53.35 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14762 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 47 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14862 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 42 元/吨。国际市场方面，地缘冲突加剧，原油价格持续上涨。"美联储 | | | | 传声筒"会前放声称，"若非关税，美联储本周就会降息"，但目前预计本周会议 | | | | 美联储官员仍将采取观望状态。美元指数走强，美棉价格下行。国内市场方面，原 | | | | 油价格上行对郑棉有一定影响。国内陈棉库存处于近年来同期偏低水平，但短期也 | | | | 无库存短缺担忧，新棉丰产预期较强。下游需求表现相对偏弱，纺织企业开机负荷 | | | | 环比小幅下降，库存水平在持续累积， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean export volume in a certain month is expected to be 1,437 million tons, 2% higher than the previous week's forecast and over 50 million tons more than last year; the expected export volume of Brazilian soybean meal is 197 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous week's forecast [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production in a certain month reached 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase, the highest in the same period since 2015 due to favorable weather; exports soared 25.62% to 1.38 million tons, mainly driven by strong demand from China and India, and the export momentum is expected to continue until the third quarter; short - term production may slow down and production activities in a certain month are expected to decrease [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Export Sales - A private exporter reported the sale of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to an unknown destination for shipment in the 2025/2026 market year [1] Brazil's Exports - Brazil's soybean export volume in a certain month is expected to be 1,437 million tons, 2% higher than the previous week's forecast, and over 50 million tons more than last year; the expected export volume of soybean meal is 197 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous week's forecast [1] Malaysia's Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production in a certain month reached 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase, the highest in the same period since 2015; exports increased by 25.62% (+283,000 tons) to 1.38 million tons, mainly due to strong demand from China and India; short - term production may slow down and production activities in a certain month are expected to decrease [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are provided [2] Basis - Protein meal basis and oil basis are mentioned, but no specific data is provided [3] Futures Spread - The term "oil and oilseed futures spread" is mentioned, but no specific content is provided

| 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/18 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/11 | - | 2340 | 2410 | 2460 | -34 | -10 415 | 2800 | 2950 | 136 | -92 | | 2025/06/12 | - | 2340 | 2410 | 2460 | -32 | -10 415 | 2800 | 2950 | 135 | -92 | | 2025/06/13 | - | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -48 | -10 406 | 2800 | 2950 | 142 | -92 | | 2025/06/16 | - | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -29 | -10 358 | ...