Core Viewpoint - The coal futures market in China is experiencing a bullish trend, particularly in coking coal, with prices showing a significant increase amid fluctuating supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Supply Analysis - Overseas supply of coking coal at the China-Mongolia border has increased seasonally, but trade volumes remain low, leading to high inventory levels [1] - Domestic coal mines are gradually resuming operations, with an increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization of 110 washing plants, resulting in a more relaxed overall supply of coking coal [1] - The cost-effectiveness of imported Australian coal has diminished, leading to a decrease in import volumes [1] Demand Analysis - Steel mills are seeking profits from upstream coking coal producers, but the second round of price reductions for coke has begun, indicating weakening demand [1] - The overall demand for coking coal is under pressure, with expectations of a decline in terminal demand impacting the market [2] - The anticipated peak in iron and steel production has led to a negative feedback loop in the black chain, further weakening demand for coking coal [1][2] Market Sentiment and Recommendations - Current market sentiment is influenced by political changes in Mongolia, which may lead to short-term price rebounds in coking coal [1] - Analysts suggest a bearish outlook for coking coal, recommending traders to consider short positions during price rebounds, with specific resistance levels identified for coking coal and coke futures [2]

Report Summary - Investment Rating: Firmly Hold [1] - Core View: Despite ongoing external disturbances such as tariffs and geopolitical disputes, the domestic market has become largely desensitized. The short - end of the market performed the worst today, possibly due to concerns about banks' liability side. It is recommended to extend the duration appropriately and take long positions with light positions [1][3] Market Conditions - Treasury Futures: The treasury futures fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, with most contracts ending in the red. Only the ultra - long - end contracts closed up. After the cross - month period, the capital interest rates dropped significantly, with DR001 weighted average close to 1.4%. In the open market, 830 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase expired, and the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan in new operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [1] - Economic Forecast: The OECD released an economic outlook report on the 3rd, predicting that the US economic growth rate will be 1.6% this year, a 0.6 - percentage - point downgrade from the March forecast, making it one of the major economies with a significant slowdown in growth [2] Data Overview Futures Contracts - TS2509: Closing price 102.352, down 0.046 from the previous trading day; Open interest 121,149, up 1,653 [4] - TF2509: Closing price 105.96, down 0.045; Open interest 163,143, up 899 [4] - T2509: Closing price 108.67, down 0.045; Open interest 190,840, up 77 [4] - TL2509: Closing price 119.45, up 0.04; Open interest 113,610, up 84 [4] Basis and Trading Volume - TS Basis (CTD): - 0.0827, down 0.0033; Trading volume 37,274, up 2,847 [4] - TF Basis (CTD): - 0.0266, up 0.0131; Trading volume 47,214, down 7,839 [4] - T Basis (CTD): - 0.0453, down 0.3965; Trading volume 42,868, down 19,601 [4] - TL Basis (CTD): 0.468, down 0.2; Trading volume 60,835, down 10,208 [4] Capital Interest Rates - DR001: Weighted average 1.4822, up 0.0698; Trading volume 16,522.0063 billion yuan, unchanged [4] - DR007: Weighted average 1.6645, up 0.0315; Trading volume 820.7655 billion yuan, unchanged [4] - DR014: Weighted average 1.7236, up 0.0051; Trading volume 86.3575 billion yuan, unchanged [4]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The latest manufacturing PMI in May remained below 50, indicating the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy, but China's economic resilience is strong. Overseas, the US-EU tariff war has escalated, and there is still significant uncertainty in China-US tariff negotiations, which suppresses the A-share market. The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to release financial policies, providing some support to the index. In the short term, the index faces both upward pressure and downward support, and a breakthrough requires external certainties or new domestic favorable policies. The recommended strategy is to hold positions and wait and see [6] Market Review - The stock index opened lower and closed higher today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.31%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 2231 million yuan. All stock index futures rose with increased volume [4] Important Information - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. The new export order index and import index increased by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points respectively, and the foreign trade situation of some US-related enterprises improved [5] - US President Trump announced raising the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The EU is in the final consultation on expanding countermeasures, and if no solution is reached, existing and additional measures will take effect on July 14 or earlier [5] - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China from May 31 to August 31 [5] Index Futures Data Futures Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.11 | 7.5192 | -1.3852 | 23.6192 | 0.5468 | | IH | 0.05 | 4.0069 | -0.9296 | 8.1877 | 0.1863 | | IC | 0.33 | 6.938 | -0.909 | 21.3655 | 0.6257 | | IM | 0.68 | 16.4487 | -2.3121 | 32.1122 | 0.3188 | [7] Spot Market | Indicator | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.43 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.16 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.90 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 11414.09 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | 22.31 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: If glass prices remain low, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations. Although glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [3]. -纯碱: The pressure on the futures market continues. Newly invested production capacity may gradually release output, and maintenance has not provided short - term support. With the cost decline, there is still profit in the industrial chain. It should be treated bearishly, and for the continuous downward momentum of the soda ash price, soda ash plants need to further reduce prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - Glass price monthly forecast is in the range of 900 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.74% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 46.0% [2]. - Soda ash price monthly forecast is in the range of 1100 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.3% [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management: When the glass inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of FG2509 can be sold at 1100; 50% of FG509 C1200 can be sold at 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - For soda ash inventory management: When the soda ash inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of SA2509 can be sold at 1300; 50% of SA509 C1300 can be sold at 30 - 40 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The industrial chain faces overcapacity pressure in the future; it is in the off - season of demand with weak expectations, but no new cold repair expectations have been triggered [3]. - Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of overcapacity, and there are still new production capacities to be put into operation in the long - term; the cost is continuously decreasing, and there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.3.2 Bullish Factors - Glass: The supply remains in a low - level fluctuation state; the futures price is approaching the full - industrial - chain loss state, and the cold repair expectation will increase at low prices [3]. - Soda ash: Factory maintenance from May to June has been gradually implemented; export is better than expected, alleviating the domestic overcapacity pressure [3]. 3.3.3 Bearish Factors - Glass: There is still an expectation of furnace ignition on the supply side, and no large - scale cold repair is expected; the actual demand is weak; the overall social inventory is high, and the off - season is coming [3]. - Soda ash: New production capacities continue to be put into operation; the social inventory is at an absolute historical high; there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data 3.4.1 Glass - On June 3, 2025, the price of glass 05 contract was 1069, down 27 (-2.46%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 954, down 28 (-2.85%); the price of 01 contract was 1014, down 29 (-2.78%) [3][5]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 115, up 1; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 60, up 1; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 55, down 2 [5]. - The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 62, unchanged; the 09 contract basis in Hubei was 86, up 28 [5]. - The average price of Shahe delivery products was 1130.8, unchanged. The prices in some regions decreased, such as - 20 in North China, - 10 in Northeast China, etc. [6]. 3.4.2 Soda Ash - On June 3, 2025, the price of soda ash 05 contract was 1221, down 18 (-1.45%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 1185, down 14 (-1.17%); the price of 01 contract was 1175, down 17 (-1.43%) [7]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 36, down 4 (-10%); the 9 - 1 month spread was 10, up 3 (42.86%); the 1 - 5 month spread was - 46, up 1 (-2.13%) [7]. - The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 50, up 10; the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 105, down 6 [7]. - The heavy - alkali market prices in some regions decreased, such as - 50 in North China, - 20 in East China, etc. [7].

Group 1: Report Summary - The monthly price range forecast for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.35% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.65% [1] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 25% of the bu2509 contract in the 3500 - 3600 range to lock in profits [1] - For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy 50% of the bu2509 contract in the 3300 - 3400 range to lock in procurement costs [1] - Weekly asphalt production increased by about 5.2%, while demand in South and East China decreased by 7.5% due to rainfall, leading to an increase in the inventory - to - consumption ratio this week [2] - The basis in the North China market strengthened, and the cracking spread on the futures market continued to strengthen, with the overall valuation remaining high [2] - In the short term, it is necessary to see if the slowdown in demand growth during the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits. In the long - term, there is an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2] - After the callback, it is still advisable to maintain a long - position - based configuration [2] Group 2: Price and Spread Data Spot Price - The Shandong spot price on June 3, 2025, was 3645 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot price was 3645 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot price was 3365 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 75 yuan/ton [5] Basis - The Shandong spot 09 basis on June 3, 2025, was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 144 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot 09 basis was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 44 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot 09 basis was - 91 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 57 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [5] Cracking Spread - The Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent on June 3, 2025, was 162.036 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 15.2169 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 7.6459 yuan/barrel [8] - The futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 129.4578 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 18.6826 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 21.3357 yuan/barrel [8] Group 3: Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - The inventory structure of asphalt is good [7] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [7] - The basis is strengthening [7] Bearish Factors - The cracking spread remains at a high level [4] - After the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered [7] - The plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand [7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Price and Performance Price Tracking - On May 30, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, COMEX Silver, AU2508, AG2508, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were $3298.75/oz, $33.13/oz, $3322.40/oz, $33.25/oz, 771.80 yuan/g, 8218 yuan/kg, 767.80 yuan/g, and 8187 yuan/kg respectively [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the price changes were 0.8%, -0.1%, 0.8%, -0.2%, 1.0%, -0.1%, 0.9%, and 0.0% respectively [5]. Spread and Ratio - On May 30, 2025, the spreads and ratios such as gold TD - SHFE active price, silver TD - SHFE active price, gold and silver internal - external spreads, SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios, etc. are presented in the report [5]. - The changes compared with May 29, 2025 varied, with the largest increase of 30.6% in the gold internal - external (TD - London) spread and the largest decrease of 19.14% in COMEX gold non - commercial short positions [5]. Group 3: Position Data Non - commercial Positions - As of May 27, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the positions of gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV are provided [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the changes in non - commercial positions of COMEX gold and silver ranged from - 19.14% to 6.22% [5]. Inventory Data - On May 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17,247 kg, with no change compared to May 29, 2025; the SHFE silver inventory was 1,066,885 kg, a 2.99% increase [5]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 38,789,194 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 496,007,980 troy ounces, a 0.43% decrease [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market - On May 30, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.18, a 0.08% decrease compared to May 29, 2025 [5]. - The US dollar index was 99.44, a 0.08% increase; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, a 0.77% decrease; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, a 0.45% decrease [5]. - The VIX was 18.57, a 3.18% decrease; the S&P 500 was 5911.69, a 0.01% decrease; NYWEX crude oil was $60.79, a 0.21% decrease [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy Short - term Logic - Trump's decision to raise steel tariffs to 50% and the EU's response, along with the escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, have led to a significant increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [5]. - The slowdown of US PCE in April and consumer inflation expectations in June have increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the weak operation of the US dollar index also supports precious metal prices [5]. - However, due to the uncertainty and recurrence of tariff negotiations, the driving force for precious metal prices may weaken if the negotiations ease [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the backdrop of the trade war, the US economy still faces the risk of "stagflation," and the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates in the second half of the year [5]. - With the intensification of great - power competition and the de - dollarization trend, global central banks' gold purchases continue, strengthening the monetary attribute of gold, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5]. - The strategy suggests continuous low - buying allocation [5].

工业硅产业日报 2025-06-03 束，预计将进一步下滑。铝合金领域，终端消费电子和汽车行业有一定需求支撑，但企业多按需补库，库 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 存增长，价格持平，处于被动去库存，难有拉动。整体而言，三大下游行业对工业硅总需求呈现下降趋势 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 。工业硅仓单数量有所下滑，但依旧保持在6.5万手，庞大的仓单数量给盘面带来了巨大的交割压力。目前 免责声明 工业硅期货已经出现恐慌性交易，交易量放出天量，操作上建议,中长线依旧高空思路 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 ...

南华甲醇产业链数据周报20250602： 尝试多配 戴一帆（Z0015428）张博（F03100606） 估值观察 动力煤：节前主产区供应收紧，煤价稳中小幅调整。部分终端阶段性补库，叠加站台大户采购积极，部分煤矿库存低，价格小幅探涨；但少数煤矿持 续上涨后，部分市场户接受度下降。六月份降雨增多，水电等清洁能源替代能力增强，且沿海电厂库存较为充裕，非电行业表现延续不温不火，采购需求 大规摸释放的可能性仍旧较低，短期内煤价或难有较大波动。 天然气：海外天然气价震荡。 2 甲醇产业链周度综述 | | | | | | 期货 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 今日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | 价差 | 今日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | | 01合约 | 2276 | 2308 | -32 | 2345 | -69 | 1-5价差 | 57 | 54 | B | -19 | 76 | | 05合约 | 2219 | 2254 | ...

Group 1 - Shanghai International Reinsurance Center is accelerating its construction to enrich international financial products, allowing foreign traders to directly participate in trading six internationalized futures products including crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil [1] - Eramet, a French mining company, is committed to maintaining 10,460 local jobs in Gabon despite the government's announcement to ban the export of manganese ore starting in 2029 [1] - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows a blast furnace operating rate of 83.87%, a capacity utilization rate of 90.69%, and a profit rate of 58.87%, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.4191 million tons [1] - As of May 31, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil for the 2024/25 season reached 99.8%, slightly up from 99.5% the previous week and higher than 98.8% in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicates that as of June 1, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans is at 67%, below the market expectation of 68%, with a planting rate of 84% [2] - U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the week ending May 29 was 268,343 tons, an increase from the previous week's revised figure of 200,022 tons, with shipments to China totaling 64,998 tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 213,000 tons to 2 million tons as of the end of March, a 38% decline year-on-year, while total palm oil production increased by 7% to 4.8 million tons [2]

Core Insights - The main contract of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index futures closed at 2506, with a slight decrease of 0.33% as of May 30, 2025, and a total trading volume of 49,400 contracts, which is a decrease of 2,353 contracts from the previous day [1][3]. Group 1: Market Position - The top 20 positions show a net short position with a difference of 4,688 contracts [1]. - The total long positions in the top 20 decreased to 51,900 contracts, down by 5,406 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The total short positions in the top 20 also decreased to 62,500 contracts, down by 6,570 contracts [1][4]. Group 2: Major Players - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan with 8,643 contracts, CITIC Futures with 7,684 contracts, and Dongzheng Futures with 4,306 contracts [1][3]. - The top three short positions are held by Guotai Junan with 10,526 contracts, CITIC Futures with 9,638 contracts, and GF Futures with 8,335 contracts [1][3]. Group 3: Position Changes - The top three long position increases are from Guoxin Futures with an increase of 147 contracts, Zheshang Futures with an increase of 132 contracts, and Galaxy Futures with an increase of 121 contracts [1]. - The top three long position decreases are from Guotai Junan with a decrease of 1,781 contracts, CITIC Futures with a decrease of 1,679 contracts, and Huatai Futures with a decrease of 421 contracts [1]. - The top three short position increases are from GF Futures with an increase of 314 contracts, Huawen Futures with an increase of 200 contracts, and Guotou Futures with an increase of 196 contracts [1].