摘要今日周一(2月2日)亚盘时段，2月2日早盘，伦敦现货黄金早盘大幅低开，跌幅一度扩大至4%，随后 出现反弹。 1月30日，美联储理事凯文.沃什被提名为下任主席，市场普遍视其为相对"鹰派"的人选。这一提名迅速 扭转了市场对美联储未来维持超宽松货币政策的预期，导致美元指数反弹，进而对以美元计价的贵金属 形成直接压力。然而，更深层次的原因则在于贵金属市场极端拥挤的多头持仓与技术性抛压，触发了连 锁的"多头踩踏式出逃"。此外，芝商所上调金银期货保证金比例以及主要商品指数因金银权重超标而进 行的强制性再平衡抛售，均放大了技术性卖压。 回顾1月的贵金属市场，经历了从"史诗级上涨"到"历史级跳水"的极限波动。笔者认为，30日的剧烈调 整是对前期极端超买与过度拥挤交易的一次"挤泡沫和降杠杆"式的强制性清算。尽管市场经历了如此剧 烈的波动，但支撑贵金属的长期核心变量并未发生逆转，如美元信用体系重构、去美元化储备趋势以及 地缘政治裂痕常态化等。这些长期驱动逻辑依然完整，为贵金属提供了坚实的支撑。 进入2月，市场将更加关注宏观政策信号与地缘事件，以寻求贵金属的支撑点。预计波动率仍将维持高 位，但各品种将走向分化。其中，黄金将展现 ...

Group 1 - Silver T+D currently trading below 24794, opened at 26671, and is reported at 23420, down 19% [1] - The highest price reached 26780 and the lowest was 23420, indicating a volatile trading session [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to margin levels and price limits for silver contracts due to significant price fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The margin requirement for Ag(T+D) contracts will increase from 20% to 26% if a one-sided market occurs, with the price limit changing from 19% to 25% [2] - Last Friday, silver prices dropped sharply by 8%, continuing the downward trend with a current decline exceeding 19% [3] - Technical indicators show a strong bearish trend, with support levels identified between 22500 and 23000, and resistance levels between 26500 and 27500 [3]

芝商所在声明中表示，此次保证金比例上调将分两阶段实施，2月2日起先上调15%，2月5日起完成剩余 5%-10%的上调，覆盖黄金、白银所有期限的期货合约。声明强调，上调保证金并非看空贵金属市场， 而是基于当前市场高波动环境的审慎调控，后续将根据市场走势动态调整保证金比例，保障市场平稳运 行。 业内分析认为，芝商所上调保证金将直接抑制贵金属期货市场的杠杆交易，缓解市场波动幅度，但短期 内可能导致投机资金撤离，进一步压制金价、银价走势。机构人士表示，当前贵金属市场的核心矛盾仍 是美联储政策预期，若沃什顺利当选美联储主席，鹰派货币政策可能持续，贵金属长期承压；但地缘政 治紧张局势及全球去美元化趋势，仍为贵金属提供长期支撑。业内提醒，普通投资者应理性看待市场波 动，避免盲目抄底，合理控制仓位风险。 AI生成 据悉，此次保证金上调源于近期贵金属市场的剧烈震荡。2月1日前，受特朗普提名鹰派人物凯文·沃什 为美联储主席候选人影响，全球贵金属遭遇恐慌性抛售，现货黄金单日暴跌13%，白银单日跌幅超35% 创历史纪录，伦敦金现货价格一度跌破4885美元/盎司。尽管2月1日黄金出现技术性反弹，较前日低点 回升约4%，但市场恐慌情绪尚 ...

2026 年 02 月 01 日 宏观研究团队 走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | |  国内宏观政策：建设金融强国 | | 过去两周（1 月 18 日-1 月 31 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 金融监管政策方面，政策聚焦大宗商品交易监管。近期商品价格波动明显，上期 所、广期所、上金所等交易所多次发布调整涨跌停板、下调交易限额、上调保证 金比例等多项举措。 贸易方面聚焦美方表示在 4 月之前，中美双方有机会开启新一轮经贸谈判，商务 部对此回应表示，中方愿与美方用好中美经贸磋商机制，管控分歧、推进合作。 海外宏观政策：特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席 经济增长方面，国家发改委有关负责人介绍，2026 年宏观政策要把发力点放在 做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求。将优化"两新"政策的支持范围和补 贴标准；研究制定出台扩大内需战略实施 ...

Core Viewpoint - CME Group has announced an increase in margin requirements for precious metals trading, aiming to mitigate extreme market volatility following significant price fluctuations in gold and silver [1][2][3] Group 1: Margin Requirement Adjustments - CME Group will raise the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures, effective after the market closes on February 2 [1] - The margin for non-high-risk accounts for gold futures will increase from 6% to 8%, while high-risk accounts will rise from 6.6% to 8.8% [1] - For silver futures, the non-high-risk margin will go from 11% to 15%, and high-risk accounts from 12.1% to 16.5% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The increase in margin requirements is a response to the extreme volatility in precious metal prices, with gold reaching a historical high of $5,500 per ounce and silver peaking at $121 per ounce, followed by significant drops of 15% and 31% respectively [2][3] - The adjustments are expected to raise trading costs by over 30%, impacting investors' leverage and potentially leading to reduced positions if returns do not cover increased costs [3][4] Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical adjustments by CME Group have often coincided with extreme market conditions, such as the 1980 Hunt brothers incident and the 2011 silver flash crash, where margin requirements were significantly increased to curb speculation [5][6] - Current adjustments differ in that they utilize a dynamic margin mechanism, allowing for more responsive changes based on market conditions, contrasting with past fixed standards [6] Group 4: Global Regulatory Actions - CME Group's actions are part of a broader trend among global regulatory bodies to implement risk control measures, including Thailand's restrictions on gold futures trading and India's increase in gold import taxes [7] - These measures aim to prevent systemic risks and encourage rational investment behavior, with the expectation that while volatility may persist, the long-term upward trend in precious metal prices remains intact [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent historic drop in COMEX gold and silver futures prices has caused significant turmoil in the precious metals investment market, leading to substantial losses for hedge funds and raising concerns about market stability and future price movements [1][2][3]. Market Reaction - On January 30, COMEX gold futures fell from $5,410 to $4,907 per ounce, a drop of over 12%, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 40 years. COMEX silver futures dropped from $115.89 to $85.25 per ounce, with a maximum intraday decline of 35.30%, the largest since the 1980s [1]. - The net asset value of a hedge fund managing a $60 million precious metals investment fund fell by over 6% in one night, the largest single-day drop since its inception [2]. Causes of Price Drop - The price drop was attributed to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which raised concerns about a more cautious U.S. monetary policy, causing the dollar index to rise from 96.20 to 97.11 [2][3]. - The market was already experiencing a bubble due to excessive bullish positions and record levels of call options, making it vulnerable to sharp corrections [2][7]. Market Sentiment - The sentiment among hedge fund managers was one of shock and panic, as many were unprepared for such a drastic price drop. The market was characterized by extreme bullishness, with gold and silver being among the most crowded trades globally [8][9]. - The rapid decline in prices triggered a "liquidation cascade," where many funds were forced to sell off their positions to avoid further losses, exacerbating the price drop [8][10]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, there is a belief that gold and silver prices have long-term upward potential due to ongoing geopolitical risks and the weakening global position of the dollar [3][14]. - However, the current environment is marked by high volatility, and investors are advised to manage their positions and leverage carefully to avoid significant losses in the event of further price corrections [3][14][15]. Margin Requirements - Following the price drop, the CME Group raised margin requirements for COMEX gold and silver futures, increasing the margin ratio for high-risk accounts, which may lead to further exits from the market by leveraged investors [14].

第一：SpaceX申请部署100万颗卫星 据最新消息，世界首富埃隆·马斯克旗下的商业航天公司SpaceX近日向美监管提交申请，计划发射多达100万颗卫 星以构建"轨道数据中心"。 本来年初就异常火爆的商业航天，看来下周又有一些新鲜血液注入了。 第二：芝加哥商品交易所出手上调保证金 在黄金、白银等贵金属价格遭遇史诗级暴跌后，芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）紧急上调贵金属期货保 证金，黄金保证金率从6%升至8%，白银从11%升至15%，新规下周一收盘后生效。 这意思是说下周的贵金属交易需要的保证金会更多，估计下周开盘市场还是会继续大跌。 第三：31省公布GDP 1月29日，西藏发布，2025年，全区实现生产总值3031.89亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长7.0%，增速连续四个 季度位居全国前列。 排名前三的依旧是广东14.58万亿，增速3.9%（全国倒数第二）；江苏14.24万亿，增速5.3%；山东10.32万亿， 增速5.5%。 广东和江苏总量很近，江苏增速更快，估计很快就能当状元了。 第四：周末愉快 临近年底了，从下周开始，准备好好复盘下过去一年的商业进展，做个复盘总结，为明年怎么干，先打好基 础。 ...

Company News - China CRRC issued a statement on January 31, warning about illegal scams using its name, where fraudsters promote fictitious investment projects claiming high returns, which poses a significant threat to public financial safety and the company's reputation [3] - Jerry Holdings announced on January 31 that it will continue to focus on three key areas: data centers, industrial energy, and new power systems, aiming to drive the intelligent and large-scale application of clean energy equipment through technological innovation and product iteration [4] - Dier Laser stated on January 31 that it has successfully applied laser high-precision ultra-fine graphic equipment in the electroplating copper process based on its "de-silvering" strategy for BC (back contact) battery technology, with related technology already achieving mass production orders [4] Industry News - The global AI computing power construction is entering an explosive period, with high-power and stable power supply becoming essential for computing clusters, leading to a surge in demand for transformers, which are now considered core infrastructure for computing power [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group announced an increase in margin requirements for several precious metal futures due to recent price volatility, with gold futures margin for non-high-risk accounts rising from 6% to 8%, and silver from 11% to 15% [2][3]

Group 1 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced an increase in margin requirements for various precious metal futures due to recent price volatility [1] - For gold futures, the margin for non-high-risk accounts will rise from 6% to 8%, while for high-risk accounts, it will increase from 6.6% to 8.8% [1] - Silver futures will see non-high-risk account margins increase from 11% to 15%, and high-risk account margins from 12.1% to 16.5% [1] - The margin adjustments for platinum and palladium futures have also been raised [1] - These changes will take effect after the market closes on February 2 [1] - The CME stated that this decision is based on a regular assessment of market volatility to ensure that margins adequately cover trading risks [1] Group 2 - The price of high-end roasted seeds has surged to 200 yuan per jin, surpassing the price of pork [2] - Gold has experienced its largest decline in 40 years, while silver has seen a significant drop, with investors lamenting the loss of five days' worth of gains in a single moment [2]

【导读】芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 在金银价格历史性暴跌后提高黄金和白银的保证金 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，黄金、白银价格崩盘之后，交易所上调了保证金。 1月31日，在金价和银价经历了数十年来最大幅度的下跌之后，芝加哥商品交易所将上调Comex黄金、白银期货的保证金要求。 交易所称，非高风险等级的黄金合约保证金将从目前的6%上调至合约价值的8%，高风险等级的保证金将从目前的6.6%上调至8.8%。 白银期货合约中，非高风险等级合约的保证金将从目前的11%上调至15%，而高风险等级合约的保证金将从目前的12.1%上调至16.5%。铂金和钯 金期货合约的保证金也将提高。 这项调整将从下周一收盘后开始生效。交易所称，此举是对市场波动进行"常规审查"后的结果，目的是确保抵押品覆盖充足。 保证金上调意味着，想交易黄金、白银、铂金和钯金期货的投资者，需要缴纳更多保证金，以确保能够履约。虽然交易所在合约大涨、大跌或波 动极端时上调保证金并不罕见，但周五的这一动作可能会进一步挤压资金量较小的参与者——因为他们可能拿不出足够现金追加保证金。 本周早些时候，在价格快速上涨之后，交易所已经上调过白银、铂金和钯金期货的保证金要 ...