Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 0.4% to 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, while year-on-year they decreased by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI remained flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.3% from -2.9%[2] - Production demand improved, supporting price increases in some energy and raw material sectors[2] - The coal processing price rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while the prices for coal mining and washing increased by 2.5%[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in CPI may continue into October due to tailwind factors, with a focus on the progress of pig production capacity reduction[2] - The real estate market remains weak, with property sales area and sales value down 4.7% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - M1 growth has been rising, which is expected to support PPI improvement, although the overall PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating for the industry [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the performance of 22 key listed companies in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with an expected 47% year-on-year drop in combined earnings for the first three quarters of 2025. However, certain segments, particularly egg-laying hens and animal health, are expected to show notable growth [1][4]. - The report identifies specific companies with strong performance forecasts, including Huisheng Biological (+1559%), Bangji Technology (+185%), Xiaoming Co. (+55%), and Placo (+55%) for Q3 [4]. - The report discusses the challenges in pig farming, with a significant drop in pig prices leading to industry-wide losses. The average price of external three-breed pigs fell to 13.9 yuan/kg, a 28% year-on-year decrease [4][5]. - In poultry farming, the report notes a mixed outlook, with white chicken prices stabilizing and seasonal demand for yellow chicken increasing. The average price for commodity broiler chicks was 2.67 yuan/chick, down 13% year-on-year [4][5]. - The animal health sector is experiencing a recovery in demand due to improved cash flow for downstream clients, with a 6.73% year-on-year increase in vaccine approvals [4]. - The pet food segment is facing challenges in overseas markets due to tariffs, but domestic brands are maintaining high growth rates, with online GMV for the pet food industry increasing by 7% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The report indicates a significant decline in profitability for pig farming, with average profits for self-bred and purchased pig farming at 43.2 and -116.7 yuan/head respectively. Major companies like Muyuan Foods are expected to see a 50% drop in net profit for Q3 [4][5]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a mixed performance in poultry farming, with white chicken prices under pressure and yellow chicken entering a seasonal peak. The average price for commodity broiler chicks and chicken products has shown varying trends [4][5]. Animal Health - The report highlights a recovery in the animal health sector, driven by increased livestock inventory and improved cash flow for clients, leading to a rise in vaccine and drug sales [4]. Pet Food - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on overseas pet food sales, while domestic brands continue to grow, with notable increases in sales for companies like Guibao and Petty [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a recent pullback in the Livestock ETF (159865) amidst a backdrop of "anti-involution," with continued capital inflow into the livestock sector, totaling over 1.2 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 10 trading days, bringing the current scale to nearly 7 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2 - From May to September this year, the government held several meetings regarding pig farming, implementing stricter regulatory policies, with leading pig farming companies required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year. The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Ministry reported a cumulative decrease of 50,000 breeding sows from July to August [2]. - It is anticipated that the pig farming industry will enter a phase of capacity reduction starting in July 2025, with the ongoing losses in the industry and strict regulatory policies likely accelerating this process [2]. - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, with approximately 60% exposure to "pigs," presenting potential investment opportunities for interested investors [2].

Core Insights - The stock price of Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. decreased by 2.05% on October 15, trading at 52.60 CNY per share with a market capitalization of 287.34 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 38.87%, but a slight decline of 0.75% over the last five trading days and 3.63% over the last twenty days [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 76.463 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.46% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 10.530 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 1169.77% [2] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Muyuan Foods was 209,000, a decrease of 25.13% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 33.57% to 18,236 shares [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Muyuan Foods has distributed a total of 26.576 billion CNY in dividends, with 16.594 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 149 million shares, an increase of 20.4715 million shares from the previous period [3] - Various ETFs, including Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, have increased their holdings in Muyuan Foods, indicating growing institutional interest [3]

日期 2025 年 10 月 15 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 行业 生猪日报 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，14 日生猪主力 2601 合约小幅高开 ...

证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-14 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2992.07 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2367.56 | 行业相对指数表现 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24% 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《"反内卷"下，8 月能繁存栏下降》 - 2025.09.30 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.9.30-2025.10.12） 节后猪价宽幅下跌 ⚫ 行情回顾：节后市场调整，农业跑赢大盘 节后仅 2 个交易日，市场整体有所调整。由于前期涨幅较小，且 相对抗跌，农林牧渔（申万）指数累计上涨 1.03%，在申万 31 个一级 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 每日报告 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，13 日生猪主力 2601 合约小幅高开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery (农牧渔) sector is showing resilience in the A-share market, with the Agricultural and Fishery ETF (159275) experiencing significant net inflows and maintaining a strong performance despite broader market pressures [1][2]. Industry Overview - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has undergone a prolonged correction from February 2021 to September 2024, but has recently rebounded alongside the A-share market, although valuations remain low [2]. - The current price-to-book ratio of the index tracked by the Agricultural and Fishery ETF is 2.64, placing it in the 32.14 percentile over the past decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [2]. - The pig farming industry, a core segment of the agricultural sector, is currently at a price low not seen in four years, suggesting limited downside risk. Future trends may include production stabilization and price increases, leading to improved profitability for quality enterprises [2]. Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent government policies have focused on controlling production capacity and optimizing the competitive landscape within the pig farming industry, with expected acceleration in capacity reduction in the fourth quarter [2]. - The seed industry is also receiving significant policy support, with advancements in biotechnology and the potential for accelerated commercialization of genetically modified crops, enhancing the competitive edge of leading companies [3]. - The animal health sector is expected to see increased market share for leading firms, driven by ongoing policy focus [3]. Investment Opportunities - The Agricultural and Fishery ETF (159275) is the first ETF to track the comprehensive agricultural index, covering various segments such as pig farming, aquaculture feed, animal health, and seeds, thus providing broad exposure to the agricultural value chain [4]. - The top ten holdings of the index account for 61.1% of its weight, featuring leading companies in the sector, which enhances the index's representativeness [4]. - Historically, the index has outperformed similar thematic indices and broad market indices, with a cumulative return of 95.45% since December 31, 2013, and a remarkable 145.61% return from January 1, 2019, to March 1, 2021 [4].

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, live pig futures prices continue to decline, reaching new lows due to the concentrated release of previously held pigs by small and medium-sized farming entities and sales driven by pandemic-related pressures [1][2] Supply Side - The government has emphasized guiding reasonable price recovery, initiating capacity reduction in the pig industry since late May. From June to August, large-scale farming entities significantly increased their slaughter volumes, but prices did not show a notable decline due to winter pandemic impacts and small-scale farmers holding back pigs [2] - Small-scale farmers typically purchase piglets for batch fattening, and the current slaughtered pigs are mainly those replenished in the spring. As inventory decreases, the number of pigs available for slaughter from small-scale farmers will decline [2] Demand Side - Post-holiday, tourism consumption has cooled, and household demand remains weak, leading to an overall decline in demand. Major slaughterhouses have limited new orders, and their operating rates are expected to decrease [2] Policy Measures - In 2023, the government has held multiple meetings to discuss capacity regulation in the pig industry, with a focus on reducing the breeding sows by 1 million by the end of January 2026 among 25 major enterprises. A cross-departmental coordination mechanism will be established to enforce regulations [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will enhance pollution supervision, while the Financial Regulatory Bureau will restrict credit for capacity expansion. The Ministry of Finance will eliminate subsidies that stimulate capacity growth, marking a shift from guiding measures to rigid enforcement [1] Market Outlook - In the medium term, indicators reflecting piglet supply and demand suggest that pig prices may continue to face pressure in the next three months. The increase in large-scale farming has led to a significant rise in their share in the front-end production, while small-scale farmers focus more on downstream fattening, stabilizing basic production capacity but highlighting production efficiency impacts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The holiday consumption effect on pork prices is weakening, with a significant decline in prices observed during the recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival period, leading to industry losses and a need for capacity adjustments [3][6][10]. Price Trends - The average price of live pigs in the first week of October was 12.90 yuan/kg, down 2.8% from the previous week and 29.5% year-on-year, marking a decline of over 22% compared to the beginning of the year [3][6]. - As of October 13, the average price further decreased to 10.81 yuan/kg, with regional price differences noted, ranging from 9.94 yuan/kg in Guangxi to 11.49 yuan/kg in Fujian [3][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the supply of live pigs remains abundant due to previous production capacity releases and ongoing policies aimed at controlling weight and reducing production, which may lead to continued downward pressure on prices [4][7]. - Demand is expected to improve slightly in November with cooler weather and seasonal activities, but overall supply is projected to outpace demand, leading to further price declines [4][8]. Industry Challenges - The industry is facing significant losses, with self-breeding and piglet fattening operations reporting average losses of 206.91 yuan and 409.19 yuan per head, respectively [10][11]. - Smaller producers are under the most pressure due to higher costs, while larger enterprises are better positioned to manage risks but still face accumulating pressures from sustained low prices [10][12]. Capacity Adjustments - The Ministry of Agriculture has emphasized the need for strict capacity control measures, aiming to reduce the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million heads [10][11]. - Some companies, like Muyuan Foods, have begun to implement capacity reduction strategies, including culling low-yield sows and managing slaughter weights [11][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while there may be a seasonal increase in demand during the upcoming festive periods, the overall supply situation remains robust, limiting the potential for significant price rebounds [8][12]. - The speed of capacity reduction will be crucial in determining future price movements, with expectations that a surplus may persist into 2026 if current trends continue [12].