本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月10日24时国内成品油零售限价或迎上调】按照成品油调价时间表，11月10日24时，国内成品油零 售限价将迎来新一轮调整。机构依据最新国际原油价格变动状况预测，本轮上调幅度超50元/吨的红线 要求，大概率将上调。 2025年以来，国内成品油零售限价历经二十一轮调整，呈"六涨九跌六搁浅"态 势。调价后，国内汽、柴油价格每吨较去年底分别下跌745元、715元。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the price differentials of key refining projects in both domestic and international markets, indicating a slight increase in domestic price differentials and a more significant increase in international price differentials [1][2] - Brent crude oil's average weekly price shows a slight decline, reflecting market volatility influenced by geopolitical factors and economic data [2] Refining Sector - As of November 7, 2025, the domestic key refining project price differential is 2327.79 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 18.00 CNY/ton (+0.78%); the international key refining project price differential is 1361.85 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 56.54 CNY/ton (+4.33%) [1][2] - Brent crude oil's average weekly price is 64.23 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of -1.45% [1][2] - The refining sector is experiencing mixed signals due to U.S.-China trade negotiations and OPEC+ production decisions, leading to fluctuations in international oil prices [2] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector shows overall weak supply and demand, with cost declines not resulting in significant price differential improvements [3] - Polyolefin prices are fluctuating, while pure benzene and styrene prices are slightly declining, leading to narrowed price differentials [3] - Polyester filament yarn market shows slight upward movement due to stable supply, but overall purchasing willingness remains low due to weak downstream demand [3] Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of November 7, 2025, stock price changes for six major private refining companies include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+5.99%), Hengli Petrochemical (+8.02%), Dongfang Shenghong (+2.71%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-0.73%), Tongkun Co. (+6.82%), and Xin Fengming (+6.17%) [4] - Over the past month, stock price changes include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+11.92%), Hengli Petrochemical (+13.13%), Dongfang Shenghong (-0.53%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+3.20%), Tongkun Co. (+1.20%), and Xin Fengming (+3.88%) [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the tracking of price differentials for key refining projects, with domestic price differential at 2327.79 CNY/ton and international price differential at 1361.85 CNY/ton as of November 7, showing increases of 0.78% and 4.33% respectively [1][2] - Brent crude oil's weekly average price was reported at 64.23 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.45% [1][2] - The report indicates that the refining sector experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, with a slight increase in oil prices supported by OPEC+ decisions, but later faced downward pressure from strong dollar performance and rising U.S. crude oil inventories [2] Group 2 - In the chemical sector, overall supply and demand remained weak, with cost declines not leading to significant improvements in price differentials for various chemical products [3] - Specific products like pure benzene and styrene saw price declines and narrowing differentials due to weak demand, while MMA prices continued to weaken significantly [3] - Polyester and nylon sectors showed mixed performance, with polyester filament prices slightly increasing due to supply support, but overall purchasing sentiment remained low due to weak upstream market conditions [3] Group 3 - The stock performance of six major private refining companies showed varied results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical experiencing notable increases of 5.99% and 8.02% respectively over the week [4] - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical also led with increases of 11.92% and 13.13% respectively, while other companies showed mixed results [5]

Group 1 - The State Council will hold a press conference to discuss the acceleration of scenario cultivation and the large-scale application of new scenarios [2] - Domestic oil prices are expected to rise for the seventh time this year, with the new pricing window opening on November 10 [3] - The HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program starting November 10, 2025, for girls born after November 10, 2011 [4] Group 2 - A total of 13 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked today, with a combined market value of 12.143 billion yuan [5] - The companies with the largest number of unlocked shares include Youyan Silicon, Shapuaisi, and Southeast Electronics, with respective unlock volumes of 74 million shares, 4.99215 million shares, and 3.25328 million shares [5] - The companies with the highest market value of unlocked shares are Youyan Silicon, Southeast Electronics, and Shapuaisi, with respective values of 9.991 billion yuan, 677 million yuan, and 403 million yuan [5]

Core Insights - South Korea is relatively vulnerable in global trade disputes due to its high reliance on semi-finished goods trade, which significantly exceeds that of major G7 countries [1] Group 1: Trade Dependency - In 2022, South Korea's semi-finished goods export ratio reached 67.6%, markedly higher than the UK (57.1%), the US (53.6%), Japan (53.5%), and Germany (48.5%) [1] - The import ratio of semi-finished goods in South Korea was 50.5%, also surpassing the levels of other developed countries, which range from 41% to 48% [1] Group 2: Key Export Products - The three main export products categorized as semi-finished goods include memory chips (valued at $72 billion), processors and controllers ($35.9 billion), and petroleum products ($34.7 billion) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt spot and futures prices have dropped significantly, and the market focus will shift from the end - stage to winter storage. The cost side is affected by crude oil price changes, and the production and demand of asphalt are facing different situations in different links of the industrial chain, with a generally bearish outlook on prices [1][22] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Asphalt Industry Chain Overview - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From October 27 to November 23, the weekly total asphalt production decreased by 5.8% from 56.4 tons to 53.1 tons, and then increased. The total domestic asphalt production in November is expected to be 222.8 tons, a 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year decrease. The total weekly import remained stable at 8 tons and then decreased to 7 tons. The total apparent demand decreased by 13.2% from 78 tons to 67 tons. The total inventory decreased by 4.2% from 198 tons to 189 tons [14] - **Valuation and Profit**: The cost of diluted asphalt with and without quota decreased. The profit of main refineries increased from - 80 to - 23, and the profit of some refineries decreased. The spread between residue oil and asphalt is expected to rise, and the import profit from Iran in East China remained stable. The basis is expected to maintain a positive basis [16] - **Market Outlook**: The upstream, mid - stream, and downstream of the asphalt industry chain are all bearish on prices. The upstream cost is affected by crude oil, the mid - stream has intense brand competition and weak demand, and the downstream demand is shrinking and purchasing is cautious [22] 3.2 Asphalt Refinery Profits - The document provides multiple profit charts of refineries using different raw materials such as heavy diluted asphalt and heavy high - sulfur Middle Eastern oil, including comprehensive profits and itemized profits of asphalt, diesel, and gasoline [28][39] 3.3 Asphalt Supply - **Refinery Maintenance**: Multiple refineries have carried out or are planning maintenance, including Sinochem Quanzhou, PetroChina Qinhuangdao, etc., mainly for reasons such as production transfer and regular shutdown [50] - **Production Volume**: The daily asphalt production shows different trends in different years. The production of main refineries, Sinopec refineries, and refineries using different raw materials (diluted asphalt with or without quota) also has different changes in monthly and cumulative values [54][56][58] - **Import and Inventory**: The asphalt import volume and diluted asphalt import volume have their own trends, and the diluted asphalt port inventory also shows different changes in different regions [79][82][86] 3.4 Refinery Production Choices - **Profit and Price**: Comparing data from 2024 to 2025, the prices of Brent, WTI, Shandong diesel, etc. have changed, and the comprehensive profits of medium - quality refineries and Shandong local refineries have also changed accordingly [90] - **开工率**: The operating rates of main refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, and the national coking operating rate have different trends in different years [95][97] - **Production Volume of Related Products**: The production volumes of gasoline and diesel show different trends in monthly, cumulative, and weekly values [100][102]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have declined due to concerns over interest rate cuts and strong demand for safe-haven assets, alongside weak manufacturing data from Asia and the US. As of November 7, 2025, Brent and WTI prices were $63.63 and $59.84 per barrel, respectively [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown strong performance, with the sector rising by 4.47% as of November 7, 2025, compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 index [10][13]. - The report highlights significant increases in US crude oil imports and a rise in total crude oil inventory, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [49][53]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of November 7, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down $1.14 (-1.76%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures also fell by $1.14 (-1.87%) to $59.84 per barrel [22][24]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs remained stable at 369, and floating drilling rigs at 130 as of November 3, 2025 [26]. Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production reached 13.651 million barrels per day as of October 31, 2025, an increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs was stable at 414 [40][41]. Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude oil processing increased to 15.256 million barrels per day as of October 31, 2025, with a refinery utilization rate of 86.00%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous week [52]. Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory was 831 million barrels as of October 31, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5.7 million barrels (+0.69%) from the previous week [53]. Refined Oil Prices - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $102.44, $80.90, and $94.67 per barrel, respectively, as of November 7, 2025 [82][86].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the overall market conditions [150]. Core Insights - The report highlights that low inventory levels of polyester filament support product prices and improve profitability [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending November 7, 2025, was $64.23 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.45% [2][3]. - Domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown positive trends, with domestic projects at 2327.79 CNY/ton (+0.78%) and international projects at 1361.85 CNY/ton (+4.33%) [2][3]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that international oil prices experienced fluctuations due to various geopolitical factors and economic data, with Brent and WTI prices at $63.63 and $59.75 per barrel, respectively [15]. - Domestic refined oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6682.71 CNY/ton, 7614.29 CNY/ton, and 5865.29 CNY/ton [15]. Chemical Sector - The chemical market is described as relatively weak, with no significant improvement in price differentials despite declining costs [2]. - Polypropylene prices and differentials have shown stability, with average prices for various types of polypropylene reported [56][71]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - The report indicates that polyester filament supply is supported by low inventory levels, leading to slight price increases [90]. - The average prices for polyester filament types are reported, with POY at 6507.14 CNY/ton, FDY at 6721.43 CNY/ton, and DTY at 7803.57 CNY/ton [108]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical (+5.99%) and Hengli Petrochemical (+8.02%) over the past week [137][140]. - The overall performance of the refining index has increased by 52.08% since September 4, 2017, outperforming the broader market indices [138].

Core Viewpoint - As of November 7, 2025, International Industry (000159) saw a stock price increase of 5.12% from the previous week, closing at 6.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of 3.057 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The highest intraday price on November 7 was 6.44 yuan, while the lowest intraday price on November 3 was 6.07 yuan [1] - The current total market capitalization is 3.057 billion yuan, ranking 62 out of 64 in the photovoltaic equipment sector and 4538 out of 5166 in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Shareholder Changes - As of October 31, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 38,800, a reduction of 2,230 shareholders or 5.44% from the previous period [2] - The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 11,700 shares to 12,400 shares, with an average holding value of 75,000 yuan [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月07日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.8个百分点至31.5%，较去年同期高了3.5个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅 为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青 开工环比上涨1个百分点至34%，略超去年同期水平，受到资金和天气制约。本周，华东地区供应减 少，出货量减少幅度较大，全国出货量环比减少6.79%至30.88万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存 货比环比继续小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。中化泉州、金诚石化等炼厂计划复产，沥青 产量将有所增加。北方多地项目赶工，市场发货积极，但资金仍有制约，后续需求将逐步转弱，南 方降雨增加，多询盘低价货源。近日市场消化俄罗斯石油受制裁消息，中美两国领导人会谈基本符 合市场预期，两国关系并未根本性改变，OPEC+决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，但明年一季度暂停增产， 原油价格震荡运行。炼厂远期低价资源集中释放，近期山东地区沥青基差从高位降幅较 ...