·市场展望："春季躁动"行情积极因素累积，逢低布局为主。复盘历史，A 股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足 以下条件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化或 外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓解，后续人 民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期待。近期股票型 ETF 再度大规模净申购，多只宽基 ETF 成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。 一、复盘历史，除 2021 和 2022 年外，近十年 A 股市场往往存在"春季躁动"的日历效应。岁末年初，A 股处于经 济数据和上市公司财报的"真空期"，市场容易基于政策预期和产业趋势做主题投资。2016 年以来的十年间，A 股出现过 8 次"春季躁动"行情。时间上，行情启动时间通常在 12 月至 1 月份，持续时间 20-60 个交易日不等。 二、2021 和 2022 年的经验表明，A 股春季躁动并非必然，估值高位叠加外部事件冲击会导致春季行情缺失。例 如：2021 年初，A 股市场估值处于历史偏高水平，疫情后的通胀阴霾促使海外 ...

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 布局"春季躁动"行情，低吸科技成长方向 财信证券宏观策略周报（12.22-12.26） 2025 年 12 月 21 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -1.25 1.53 15.03 沪深 300 0.00 1.56 15.89 -9% 1% 11% 21% 31% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。从"日历效应"来看，从中央经济工作会议至次年全国两会召开 期间，A 股市场通常演绎"春季躁动"行情。我们统计了 2009 年至 2025 年 "春季躁动"行情表现，万得全 A 指数的平均上涨时间为 57 天，平均上涨幅 度为 18.30%，其中大盘蓝筹股在第四季度（尤其是 12 月份）表现较佳，科技 成长股在第一季度（尤其是 2 月份）表现较佳。随着 11 月份经济数据公布以 及海外三大央行利率决议落地，宏观经济数据对市场 ...

来源：策略李立峰与行业配置笔记 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 投资要点 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨；成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨 8.7%，铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人 民币对美元则延续升值态势。 市场展望："春季躁动"行情积极因素累积，逢低布局为主。复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需 满足以下条件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产 业事件催化或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易 逆转担忧缓解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市 亦可以期待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模 ...

- The report discusses the impact of year-end liquidity disturbances on the market, suggesting that the recent adjustments are temporary and do not alter the upward trend[1][10] - The main investment theme is shifting from technology to cyclical sectors, with recommendations for chemical ETFs, dividend ETFs, and brokerage ETFs[1][10] - The report highlights the importance of the dollar depreciation as a key factor supporting the A-share market's slow bull trend[1][10] - The report mentions the use of a fund position monitoring model to track the allocation of funds, noting increased allocations in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and transportation[1][11] - The report indicates that the technology sector's internal growth rate is slowing down, and the market is transitioning to cyclical sectors[1][11] - The report suggests that the recent market adjustments are due to year-end liquidity disturbances, with quantitative private equity products reducing their risk exposure significantly[1][12] - The report notes that the dollar depreciation trend, supported by lower-than-expected US CPI data, will continue to provide effective support for the A-share market's upward movement[1][13] - The report includes a section on timing strategies, mentioning the use of price segmentation systems and insider trading activity indicators[14][15] - The report provides industry monitoring data, including analysts' industry sentiment expectations and financing and securities lending trends[19][21] - The report discusses the performance of BARRA style factors, noting changes in market preferences and the performance of various factors such as turnover, financial leverage, and profitability volatility[24][25]

推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的 环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因 素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆， 同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视 起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。行业配 置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化驱动三 条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 推动人民币持续升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温 我们认为投资者要逐步开始适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。今年前11个月中国的累 计贸易顺差达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，创历史新高。更重要的是出口企业的结汇意愿开始不 断上升，今年10月顺差转化为顺收的比例已经超过100%，这是与过去几年最大的差异。2022年以来， 我们估算出口商积累的待结汇规模为1万亿美元左右，一旦人民币升值预期形成 ...

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the retail trade sector leading the gains. The Ministry of Commerce recently held a meeting to promote the "Three New" (new consumption formats, new models, new scenarios) pilot work, providing policy support for industry recovery. The concept of "reward economy" has emerged, further boosting sentiment in the consumption sector. Currently, the overall PB (LF) of the retail trade sector is at the historical 37.0 percentile, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [1][8]. Valuation Overview - This week, the overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 21.74 times last week to 21.73 times this week, while the PB (LF) remained stable at 1.77 times [10]. - The main board's PE (TTM) increased from 17.46 times last week to 17.54 times this week, and the PB (LF) rose from 1.48 times to 1.49 times [17]. - The ChiNext's PE (TTM) fell from 72.27 times to 71.32 times, and the PB (LF) decreased from 4.27 times to 4.21 times [19]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's PE (TTM) dropped from 210.87 times to 205.59 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 5.17 times to 5.04 times [25]. Relative Valuation Analysis - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators/resource categories, decreased from 4.47 times last week to 4.28 times this week, while the relative PB (LF) fell from 4.66 times to 4.46 times [28]. - In terms of static PE (TTM), major industries such as discretionary consumption, consumer staples, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption and consumer staples exceeding the historical 90th percentile [32]. - From the perspective of PB (LF), industries like resources, TMT, cyclical, and midstream manufacturing have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while discretionary consumption, midstream materials, financial services, services, and consumer staples are below the historical median [34]. Dynamic Valuation Insights - Analyzing the full dynamic PE, industries such as discretionary consumption, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption exceeding the historical 90th percentile [41]. - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like agriculture, public utilities, and oil and petrochemicals exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [59]. - The comparison of odds (full dynamic PE) and win rates (25-26 consensus expected net profit compound growth rate) shows that industries such as building materials, power equipment, media, and defense industry possess both low valuations and high performance growth [62]. ERP and Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.87% last week to 0.89% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.12% to -0.05% [63]. - The full dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares rose from 2.77% to 2.80% this week [70].

首次覆盖: 战略蓝图清晰，省际游轮打开成长空间 三峡旅游(002627) 三峡旅游首次覆盖报告 本报告导读： 需求回暖与公司省际度假游轮项目推进，有望打开业务新增量与盈利弹性。 投资要点： 风险提示：消费景气波动风险、运营爬坡风险、政策监管与安全运 营风险。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,600 | 741 | 827 | 981 | 1,326 | | (+/-)% | -16.1% | -53.7% | 11.5% | 18.7% | 35.1% | | 净利润(归母) | 130 | 118 | 112 | 153 | 206 | | (+/-)% | 2,848.6% | -9.3% | -4.5% | 36.2% | 35.0% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.28 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% ...

股 战略蓝图清晰，省际游轮打开成长空间 三峡旅游(002627) 三峡旅游首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@gtht.com | S0880525040012 | 本报告导读： 需求回暖与公司省际度假游轮项目推进，有望打开业务新增量与盈利弹性。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,600 | 741 | 827 | 981 | 1,326 | | (+/-)% | -16.1% | -53.7% | 11.5% | 18.7% | 35.1% | | 净利润(归母) | 130 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025 Central Politburo Meeting and Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of loose fiscal and monetary policies and the resolution of key issues such as local government debt and arrears to enterprises [2][8][9] - In November 2025, the issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution accelerated, with the 500 - billion - yuan local debt balance quota concentratedly implemented. The progress of implicit debt clearance, platform withdrawal, and exit from key provinces continued [3][13] - The net financing of urban investment bonds remained under pressure, and the resolution of operating debts, including non - standard debts, continued. The integration and transformation of urban investment platforms were active, and the number of new issuers of industrial bonds increased [4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Major Policy Updates on Debt Resolution and Urban Investment Transformation - The 2025 Central Politburo Meeting emphasized the continuation of loose fiscal and monetary policies and the resolution of arrears to enterprises [2][8] - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference focused on resolving local government debt risks, especially the "operating debt risks of financing platforms", and optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods [2][9][10] 3.2. Debt Resolution Progress Tracking 3.2.1. Implicit Debt Resolution Progress - **Local Government Bond Replacement**: In November, the issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution accelerated. The annual quota of special bonds for replacing implicit debts was almost completed, with only 1.1 billion yuan remaining in Henan. Special refinancing bonds resumed issuance, and the 500 - billion - yuan local debt balance quota was concentratedly implemented. The total annual issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution reached 3.58 trillion yuan by November 30, 2025 [3][13][14] - **Implicit Debt Clearance**: As of the end of November 2025, Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai, 30 prefecture - level cities, and 146 districts and counties had announced the completion of implicit debt clearance [3][24] - **Platform Withdrawal and Exit from Key Provinces**: Nationally, as of the end of September 2025, the number of financing platforms decreased by 71% compared to March 2023. In November 2025, 31 entities announced "no longer undertaking government financing functions", and 32 entities declared themselves market - oriented operating entities. Inner Mongolia confirmed its exit from key provinces, and Ningxia met the exit conditions [3][30][31] 3.2.2. Operating Debt Resolution - **Bonds**: In November, the net financing of urban investment bonds remained under pressure, with the proportion of debt for borrowing new to repay old reaching 93%, and the average issuance interest rate slightly dropping to 2.34% [4] - **Non - standard Debt Resolution**: In November, 3 cases of non - standard debt resolution were monitored, all through bank loan replacement. The actual progress of bank loan replacement of non - standard debts was relatively slow [4][48][49] - **Unified Borrowing and Repayment**: In November, only 1 "unified borrowing and repayment" bond was issued, with a limited number of overall implementation cases [54] 3.2.3. Arrears to Enterprises - In November, many places continued to promote the resolution of arrears to enterprises and announced relevant progress [5][59] 3.3. Tracking of Urban Investment Platform Integration and Transformation 3.3.1. Overview of Urban Investment Platform Integration - In November, 39 urban investment platform integration events were monitored, with Jiangsu being the most active region. The integration mainly included three directions: establishing new industrial investment platforms through asset integration, promoting professional integration of business segments, and integrating regional resources to create high - credit - rating entities [6][61] 3.3.2. Overview of New Issuers of Industrial Bonds - In November, the number of new issuers of industrial bonds increased significantly, with 80 new issuers, of which 49 were urban - investment - like industrial entities, accounting for 61%. The industries were concentrated in social services, non - bank finance, and real estate [6][76][78]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.1%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,723.99 billion yuan [2][7] - In the industry sectors, retail, beauty care, and social services led the gains, while telecommunications, comprehensive services, and non-ferrous metals faced the largest declines. Concept sectors such as duty-free shops, ride-hailing, and pre-made dishes saw significant increases, while superconductors, newly listed tech stocks, and silicon energy concepts experienced notable declines [2][7] Market Performance - Domestic market performance showed the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,824.81, down 1.11%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12,914.67, down 1.51%. The total trading volume was 1,723.99 billion yuan [4] - Internationally, the Dow Jones closed at 48,114.26, down 0.62%, while the S&P 500 closed at 6,800.26, down 0.24%. The Nasdaq, however, rose by 0.23% to 23,111.46 [4] Economic News - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for 2025, focusing on boosting consumption from both supply and demand sides. Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market by controlling new supply and activating existing stock [3][8] Retail Data Analysis - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 438.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, marking a significant decline in growth rates compared to previous months [9][12] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November was 0.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from October [9] - Retail sales in urban areas grew by 1.0% year-on-year, while rural areas saw a higher growth rate of 2.8% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, social services, and retail. Specific recommendations include: - For the liquor industry, it is believed to be in a bottoming phase with low valuations and high dividends providing support [13] - In the consumer goods sector, attention is drawn to dairy products, beverages, and condiments due to favorable conditions for profit release [13] - The social services sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in tourism, duty-free, and education [13] - In retail, gold and jewelry are recommended due to their appeal as safe-haven assets amid changing global trade environments [13]