Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the emergence of a "new consumption" sector driven by external market fluctuations, subdued domestic demand, and a scarcity of quality consumer assets, suggesting that structured opportunities will continue to evolve in the market [1] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "new consumption" trend is characterized as a strong alpha market that is less affected by macro disturbances, with quality new consumer brands experiencing growth due to structural dividends and product cycles [2] - Sectors such as beauty care and gold jewelry are expected to see a recovery in optional consumption, with brands that have differentiated market experiences likely to achieve counter-cyclical growth [2] Group 2: IP and AI Opportunities - The IP retail industry in China, exemplified by companies like Sanrio, has maintained high levels of prosperity since 2021, with a complete and high-quality industrial chain emerging from content production to diverse consumer monetization [3] - The AI sector is also witnessing increased application scenarios and consumer payment conversions, particularly in human resource management and B2B cross-border e-commerce [3] Group 3: Offline Retail and Services - The overall revenue growth for offline services and retail is expected to remain under pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, but there are signs of improvement in consumption data at both the macro and micro levels [4] - The combination of policy support and low base effects is anticipated to sustain the upward trend in consumption data, with specific sectors like hotels and personal services showing signs of stabilization and growth [4]

Core Insights - The annual 618 shopping festival has concluded, showcasing significant sales growth for JD.com and enhancing its brand recognition within the e-commerce sector [1][3] - JD.com has made a strategic entry into the food delivery market, demonstrating that new players can thrive in what is perceived as a saturated market [3][22] Group 1: Sales Performance and Market Trends - During the 618 shopping festival, JD.com reported that 70% of the top 100 brands were Chinese, with product searches featuring "AI elements" and "intangible cultural heritage" increasing by 120% and 270% respectively [20] - Orders from rural areas surged over 130%, with user numbers increasing by more than 140%, indicating strong consumption vitality in lower-tier markets [20] - The introduction of instant retail has led to a daily order volume exceeding 25 million, with the number of quality dining establishments rising to 1.5 million [20][22] Group 2: Innovations in Retail Experience - JD.com MALL emphasizes experiential shopping, featuring over 200 global brands and 200,000 products, akin to a physical version of the JD.com app [8][14] - The store includes various experience zones, allowing customers to interact with products, which helps reduce impulse buying and enhances product understanding [11][14] - JD.com MALL is also the first cross-border experience store in North China, allowing customers to experience imported products before ordering online [14] Group 3: Strategic Developments in Delivery Services - JD.com has rapidly expanded its food delivery service, achieving results in three months that competitors took three years to reach, with over 12,000 full-time delivery personnel [22] - The company has implemented strict standards for merchants and low commission rates, aiming to maintain quality while expanding its market presence [22] - Technological advancements in logistics, including the use of drones and AI, have improved efficiency in delivery and customer service [25][28] Group 4: Future Outlook and Competitive Position - JD.com aims to balance low prices with high-quality service, indicating a commitment to enhancing customer experience [29][32] - The company is expected to continue expanding its business lines, with potential moves into cultural tourism and other sectors [29] - JD.com remains in a strong competitive position, leveraging new retail models and consumer trends to maintain its market leadership [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - JD MALL's innovative offline retail model is reshaping the landscape of physical shopping, leveraging nearly 30 years of online experience to create a vibrant consumer environment that caters to diverse demographics and enhances local economic activity [2][12]. Group 1: Store Performance and Consumer Engagement - On its opening day, JD MALL Beijing's Dawangjing store attracted over 10,000 visitors within the first hour and achieved sales exceeding 10 million yuan within two hours, with over 100,000 visitors in the first two days [1][3]. - The store features a variety of brands, including Casarte, Hisense, Midea, Huawei, and Vivo, with several brands achieving daily sales exceeding 1 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Unique Retail Experience - JD MALL offers a new immersive shopping experience, combining product display with artistic design and advanced technology, appealing to all age groups [4][5]. - The store addresses common pain points in traditional retail, such as product selection difficulties and lack of transparency in pricing, by providing a more engaging and user-friendly environment [5][12]. Group 3: Targeted Consumer Strategies - JD MALL focuses on user needs and pain points, adjusting product displays and offerings accordingly, such as creating a 45cm ultra-thin refrigerator for small apartments and developing senior-friendly products [5][11]. - The store incorporates a "lightning new products" section and a cross-border product experience area, attracting a younger demographic and enhancing the shopping experience [7][12]. Group 4: Integration of Technology and Services - JD MALL employs a digital omnichannel strategy, ensuring consistent pricing and availability across online and offline platforms, which enhances customer engagement and reduces operational costs [11][12]. - The presence of experience and proposal specialists in stores helps to alleviate consumer decision-making pain points, improving conversion rates [10][11]. Group 5: Broader Market Trends - The retail landscape is undergoing structural changes, with traditional department stores facing challenges such as aging customer bases and operational rigidity, leading to the closure of over 35 department stores since 2022 [12][13]. - JD MALL's model exemplifies a shift towards consumer experience-centric retail, integrating online and offline data to redefine the relationship between consumers and products [13][14].

Core Insights - The article highlights the importance of digitalization in administrative systems for companies in the global retail industry, with "Baidiyun Enterprise Express Management SaaS" being a key player in this transformation [1][10] - Miniso, a leading retail company, has achieved over 50% efficiency improvement and 40% cost reduction through its partnership with Baidiyun, showcasing a successful case of digital transformation in logistics management [1][11] Company Overview - Miniso was established in 2013 and has expanded to over 7,780 stores across 112 countries and regions by the end of 2024, focusing on stable growth, particularly in overseas markets [2] Administrative Differences - The article discusses the qualitative differences between administrative departments in large and small companies, emphasizing that large companies utilize data-driven procurement strategies to achieve significant cost savings [4] Digital Transformation Journey - Miniso's transition from traditional to digital logistics management began around 2016-2017, facing challenges such as manual data entry errors and lack of a unified shipping platform, which were resolved after partnering with Baidiyun [7][8] Benefits of Baidiyun SaaS - The integration of Baidiyun's system has led to unified management of domestic and international shipments, automated financial reconciliation, and improved efficiency by over 50% while reducing costs by 40% [9][10] Future Trends in Digitalization - The company recognizes that digitalization is an inevitable trend, focusing on resource integration, efficiency enhancement, and cost reduction as core values of their digital transformation strategy [10] Recommendations for Other Companies - Miniso recommends other expanding companies to try Baidiyun's SaaS, highlighting its advantages in compliance, cost control, and resource optimization, which have led to a significant increase in management efficiency [11]

Group 1: Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market is experiencing strong performance driven by favorable policies and industry recovery signals, with a 5.1% year-on-year increase in retail sales in April [1] - The "old-for-new" policy is expanding to include various consumer goods, stimulating demand for durable goods and promoting technological upgrades [1] - New consumption trends are emerging, focusing on emotional value and personalized experiences, reflecting a shift in consumer habits [3] Group 2: Policy and Events - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have launched the "Buy in China" initiative, focusing on four key areas to enhance the consumer market [2] - The annual "618" shopping festival has shown impressive sales growth, with over 1.3 million brands doubling their sales in the first hour of the event [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Three key investment directions in the consumer sector include essential consumption with strong defensive value, the rapid rise of new consumption formats, and the growth potential in lower-tier markets [4] - Companies in the jewelry, retail, cosmetics, and medical beauty sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential and brand competitiveness [4] Group 4: Company Performance - Mao Geping's revenue increased by 34.6% year-on-year, with a target price raised by 53% to HKD 127, reflecting strong growth potential [5] - Lao Pu Gold's brand value and market positioning are emphasized, with a target price of HKD 857 based on high performance growth certainty [6] - Pop Mart's target price has been raised by 9.8% to HKD 224, with sales and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 also increased [7]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective rise, with the Consumer Theme Index increasing by 0.74% as of May 20 [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) rose by 1.1% with a turnover rate of 2.25%, driven by significant gains in stocks such as Li Auto and Xiaomi [1] - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, while retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 5.6% [1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities emphasizes the importance of "emotional consumption" and suggests focusing on leading companies with enhanced brand power and competitiveness [2] - Four investment themes are highlighted: (1) Gold and jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings; (2) Retail enterprises adapting to trends; (3) High-quality domestic beauty brands in growing segments; (4) Medical aesthetics companies with unique product lines [2]

Group 1 - The annual "618" shopping festival has begun, with over 13,000 brands achieving doubled sales in the first hour of Tmall's event [1][2] - The beauty and personal care sector has shown remarkable performance in the A-share market, driven by consumption recovery policies and the "618" promotion [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the beauty sector will see structural opportunities due to the "618" event, with a focus on high-quality companies in segments like gold jewelry, medical beauty, offline retail, and pet products [1][4] Group 2 - E-commerce platforms have started their "618" promotions earlier this year, extending the overall duration of the event [2] - Tmall reported that 43 brands achieved over 100 million yuan in sales within the first hour, a more than 50% increase compared to last year [2] - The beauty sector's GMV during the pre-sale period reached between 2.5 billion to 3.5 billion yuan, showing positive year-on-year growth [2] Group 3 - The "618" event has simplified consumer decision-making, enhancing the shopping experience and contributing significantly to brand revenues [3] - The beauty care sector has seen a 4.07% increase in stock prices over the last five trading days, leading among 31 sectors [3] - Analysts recommend focusing on high-growth segments such as gold jewelry, innovative offline retail, and differentiated medical beauty products for investment opportunities [4] Group 4 - The pet economy is gaining attention, with domestic brands benefiting from product innovation and refined marketing strategies [4] - The growth of the pet economy is supported by favorable trends in pet food exports, indicating a positive outlook for related businesses [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 社会服务 2024 年价格端有所提升，分业态有所分化。2024 年 CPI 整体有所恢复，利好零 售同店端，但客流受线上化影响仍有分化。2024 年累计分零售业态增长：专业店 （yoy+4.2%）、专卖店（yoy-0.4%）、超市（yoy+2.7%）、百货（yoy-2.4%）、便利 店（+4.7%）。其中超市受益调改+供应链变革提升前端客流吸引力，百货受到空 置率等因素影响仍有下滑。 社会服务 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 17 日 分化加剧，寻求需求侧景气度或供给侧的成本费用改善 ——社服行业 2024 年年报&2025Q1 业绩综述 投资要点 2024 年旅游高增长，25Q1 景气延续。根据文旅部数据，2024 年全年旅游收入增 长 17%，旅游人次增长 15%，客单价超越 19 年。2025 年春节国内旅游收入增长 7%，旅游人次增长 6%。低线城市、县域和农村居民的需求升级推动了旅游市场 下沉增量。银发游崛起，2024 年，45 岁以上的中老年旅游者合计出游 11.94 亿人 次，占据国内旅游客源市场的 36.81%。 OTA 充分享受大盘增长，格局稳固。下游供给加 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The collaboration between JD Logistics and Pang Donglai aims to establish the first supply chain industrial base in Henan, expected to generate an annual output value of approximately 2.5 billion yuan and tax revenue of 50 million yuan by June 2025 [1] - JD has a history of attempts to integrate online and offline retail, with notable projects like the "Million Convenience Store Plan" and 7FRESH, which faced challenges in supply chain efficiency and market competition [2][3] - Pang Donglai, known for its exceptional service, has been slow in digital transformation, with online sales remaining low despite attempts to develop digital platforms [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The partnership is expected to enhance Pang Donglai's national distribution capabilities through JD's logistics network, improving product circulation efficiency by over 40% [6][7] - The collaboration will create a new retail model that integrates online and offline experiences, allowing consumers to seamlessly transition between physical stores and online platforms [7][8] - JD's data capabilities will assist Pang Donglai in optimizing inventory management and understanding consumer trends, potentially leading to a more efficient supply chain [8] Group 3: Industry Implications - The "Double Dong" collaboration may set a precedent for other regional retail leaders to partner with national platforms, accelerating the integration and upgrading of China's retail industry [9] - The success of this model could redefine retail service standards, with JD's delivery personnel potentially receiving training in Pang Donglai's customer service philosophy [8][9] - The partnership aligns with national policies aimed at boosting consumption, presenting a mutually beneficial opportunity for both companies and consumers [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the emergence of "emotional consumption" as a significant trend in the retail industry, particularly benefiting brands that resonate with consumers' emotional needs [2][3][28] - The retail sector is experiencing a slow recovery, with varying performance across different segments, highlighting the resilience of brands linked to emotional value [3][10][39] Industry Review - In Q1 2025, social consumption showed a slow recovery, with retail businesses facing overall pressure. However, segments related to "emotional value" consumption, particularly leading brands, performed significantly better than the industry average [3][10][39] - The jewelry sector is under pressure due to high gold prices, while cross-border e-commerce remains stable but with profit pressures. The medical beauty and cosmetics sectors are facing intense competition, and offline retail is still exploring transformative models [3][6][39] Segment Analysis Jewelry - The jewelry industry is experiencing a shift in brand competition, with traditional brands facing challenges from differentiated product brands that are rapidly emerging and achieving high growth [6][39] - In Q1 2025, the jewelry sector's revenue was 431.6 billion yuan, down 25.9% year-on-year, with net profit also declining [39][64] Cosmetics - The cosmetics sector is benefiting from the rise of emotional consumption, with a focus on high-demand segments such as high-end beauty and differentiated personal care brands [5][39][64] - Brands like Mao Ge Ping and Proya are highlighted for their strong performance in this evolving market [5][39] Medical Beauty - The medical beauty sector is expected to recover as domestic demand increases, with a focus on differentiated product lines [5][39] - Companies like Ai Meike and Kedi-B are recommended for their unique offerings [5][39] Offline Retail - Offline retail is leveraging emotional consumption to regain market share, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi being recommended for their proactive transformation efforts [5][39] - The report notes that the shift towards a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model is crucial for offline retailers to enhance customer experience and emotional satisfaction [69] Investment Recommendations - For the jewelry sector, brands with differentiated product capabilities and deep consumer insights are recommended, including Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji [5][66] - In the cosmetics space, the report suggests focusing on high-demand segments and brands that can continuously innovate [5][66] - The medical beauty sector is advised to consider companies with unique product lines, such as Ai Meike and Kedi-B [5][66] - The report highlights the importance of emotional value in driving consumer preferences, suggesting that brands that can effectively tap into this trend will outperform their peers [5][66]