来源：滚动播报 印度贵金属公司Augmont Bullion 报告指出，白银从创纪录高位回落主要是因为特朗普暂缓对关键矿产 进口征收新关税，并转而表示美国将通过谈判确保供应链安全，而仅在谈判失败时考虑进口限制措施。 报告同时预测，市场可能出现短暂的获利了结和价格回撤，之后价格有望再次走高。投资者也在关注美 联储未来的政策走向。在全球不确定性背景下，美国11月生产者价格和12月消费者价格都低于预期，这 增强了市场对美联储今年可能多次降息的预期，从而进一步提振了贵金属的需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to historical highs, surpassing $90 per ounce, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to its lowest level in 13 years at 50.57, indicating that silver is currently the most expensive relative to gold in over a decade [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements and Historical Context - Since early 2025, gold and silver have increased by 75% and 190% respectively, with silver's growth being 2.5 times that of gold [1] - The gold-silver ratio has sharply declined from a peak of 105 in 2025 to around 50, suggesting a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - Historical patterns indicate that silver's rapid price increase often signals the peak of a precious metals bull market, but this time the correlation with PMI recovery has been disrupted [2][10] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics - Traditionally, the gold-silver ratio's recovery has been linked to improvements in the U.S. PMI, but this relationship has weakened as the U.S. manufacturing sector's global influence diminishes [3][2] - The current economic environment shows a disconnect between the gold-silver ratio and PMI, with the latter remaining below the growth threshold for ten consecutive months [2][3] Group 3: Industrial Demand and Strategic Importance - Silver's role in industrial applications is becoming increasingly critical, particularly in green energy and digital transformation, due to its superior conductivity and thermal properties [4][9] - The demand for silver in photovoltaic applications has surged, with a projected increase in global silver demand driven by the solar industry [9][4] Group 4: Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - The global silver inventory has been significantly impacted by tariff expectations, leading to a dramatic shift in silver stockpiles between regions [6][8] - The supply of silver has become more rigid since 2015, with annual global silver supply remaining stable between 30,000 to 33,000 tons [7][8] Group 5: Future Outlook and Market Predictions - Analysts predict that silver prices may stabilize between $80 and $100 per ounce, with the potential for rapid fluctuations due to market dynamics [11][12] - The current market conditions are reminiscent of the 1970s, characterized by stagflation and a potential crisis in dollar credibility, which could further support precious metals [12][13][14]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported that precious metals experienced significant price increases in December, with a notable divergence in trends among different metals, indicating a policy-driven characteristic for silver and platinum, while gold showed a moderate upward movement [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Precious metal prices surged, achieving the highest year-on-year returns in 45 years [1] - The final wave of this price increase was particularly influenced by policy factors and short-term market supply tightening for metals other than gold [1] - December's price trends highlighted the internal divergence within precious metals, with physical supply constraints and policy distortions driving up silver and platinum prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - As the distorting factors dissipate, gold's resilience, shaped by macroeconomic concerns and structural demand, is likely to become more pronounced [1] - Future trends for gold will be influenced by policy risks, inflation expectations, and investor positioning [1] - The World Gold Council noted that global geopolitical events have benefited gold, and there are currently no signs indicating a change in this trend [1]

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced a sudden drop, falling nearly 6% to below $88 per ounce, primarily due to President Trump's recent actions and profit-taking by investors [1] - Trump's decision to delay new tariffs on key mineral imports alleviated market concerns about potential tariffs on silver, platinum, and palladium, although he did not rule out future measures [3] - The decline in silver prices also led to a rapid decrease in gold prices, which fell to approximately $4586 per ounce, down $40 for the day [1] Group 2 - Trump's announcement of negotiating bilateral agreements to ensure adequate supply of key minerals has temporarily eased market fears regarding tariffs [3] - Daniel Ghali from TD Securities noted that the government's approach will be more targeted and "surgical," reducing concerns about broad measures that could inadvertently affect physical silver bars [3] - The strong performance of precious metals at the beginning of the year was supported by Trump's threats to the Federal Reserve, prompting a shift of funds towards alternative value-storing assets [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous expectation of macro - easing boosts capital sentiment, driving the strength of precious metals. In the long - term, precious metals have allocation value due to dual benefits of macro - financial and supply - demand attributes, leading to a rising price center. In the short - term, silver and platinum - palladium metals face tariff risks and high volatility, giving their prices stronger elasticity. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, referring to technical indicators like the 20 - day moving average [1][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - This week, due to uncertainties in the US domestic and foreign situations, capital sentiment is high, and precious metal prices break through again after a short - term adjustment last week. Silver leads the increase, with the international silver price breaking through the historical high of $90 per ounce, and the main silver futures contract AG2604 rising by over 8% to nearly 22,900 yuan per kilogram. The main platinum futures contract PT2606 rises by over 6% and then narrows [1]. Driving Factor 1: Weak US Employment Market and Moderate Inflation Boost Fed's Easing Expectation - In December, the US non - farm employment increased by 50,000 people, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 64,000. From October to November, the total was revised down by 76,000. In 2025, the annual employment increase was only 580,000, the weakest since the pandemic. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, but it was mainly due to the decline in the labor force participation rate in the household sample. The number of registered unemployed people reached 7.5 million, remaining at a high level since mid - 2021 [3]. - In December, US CPI inflation was moderate, with a year - on - year increase of 2.7% and a month - on - month increase of 0.3%, both the same as the previous values. Core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.7% [3][4]. - The weak labor market and inflation situation increase the urgency of further policy easing. The US president pressures the Fed, and the Republican Party is looking for a new Fed chairman. Since last September, the Fed has cut interest rates three times, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points, and launched RMP to buy short - term treasury bonds. Although the market expects the Fed to remain on hold in January, there is a possibility of a more dovish attitude. Under the expectation of policy and loose liquidity, institutional funds have high sentiment for early - year allocation, and precious metals will gain a higher premium [4]. Driving Factor 2: Geopolitical Conflicts and Resource Competition Intensify Supply Tension, and COMEX Physical Delivery Demand is Strong - US intervention in the geopolitical situations in the Middle East, South America, and Greenland is to control and plunder strategic resources. The growth of AI and data centers increases the demand for electricity, and China's tightened silver export policy since January 1, 2026, drive the US to increase resource control in other regions [7]. - Since January, the total number of delivery notices issued for non - main COMEX silver futures contracts has reached 7,212 lots, equivalent to 36 million ounces. The delivery volume in less than half a month is three times that of January last year. Some main - contract positions are "reverse - rolled" to the near - term, indicating strong short - term physical demand. Although the London spot market is relatively loose, the global silver ETF holdings are rising, and the inventory structural tension may not be truly alleviated [8]. Outlook - Precious metals have long - term allocation value, but in the short - term, silver and platinum - palladium metals face tariff risks and high volatility. Investors should set stop - loss and take - profit points according to news and use a strategy of buying on dips with a light position, referring to the 20 - day moving average [13].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are reaching new historical highs, with spot silver prices surpassing $90 per ounce and closing at $91.05 per ounce, marking a 4.76% increase [1]. Group 1: Silver Market Performance - The main silver futures contract in Shanghai has risen over 7%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 30% [3]. - Specific futures contracts show significant gains, with the Shanghai silver 2601 contract at 22,850, up 1,658 (7.82%) year-to-date [4]. - The total market capitalization of silver has surpassed $5 trillion, exceeding the market cap of chip giant Nvidia at $4.52 trillion [4]. Group 2: Broader Precious Metals Market - On January 14, other precious metals such as gold and platinum also experienced significant price increases [5]. - Citigroup analysts have raised their price forecasts for gold and silver to $5,000 and $100 per ounce, respectively, over the next three months [6]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to U.S. inflation data reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties driving safe-haven demand [6]. - The U.S. core consumer price index for December 2025 rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, which has bolstered investor bets on a shift in monetary policy [6]. - Recent asset allocation trends since 2022 have positioned gold and silver as "gold-like" assets, with financial attributes driving their pricing [6].

智通财经APP注意到，由于美国通胀数据弱于预期，支撑了进一步降息的理由，加之地理政治局势依然紧张，白银价格创下历史新高，黄金价格也随之攀 升。 这种白色金属一度上涨3.5%，触及每盎司89.9965美元，而黄金交易价格则接近历史巅峰。美国12月的核心通胀率并未如担心的那样高，尽管经济学家表 示，由于去年年底创纪录的政府长期停摆，数据在人为因素下被压低。 避险需求也受到了美国总统唐纳德.特朗普抓获委内瑞拉领导人、其重新威胁要占领格陵兰岛，以及伊朗可能推翻伊斯兰政权的暴力抗议活动的推动。花旗 集团分析师本周将未来三个月黄金和白银的价格预测分别上调至每盎司5000美元和每盎司100美元。 去年白银表现优于黄金，得益于10月份的空头挤压以及伦敦市场持续的供应紧张，其涨幅接近150%。交易员正在等待美国"232条款"调查的结果，该调查可 能导致对白银征收关税。对潜在征税的担忧导致金属滞留在美国仓库，从而使全球库存进一步收紧。 截至发稿10:25，现货黄金上涨0.8%，至每盎司4,621.92美元。白银上涨3.2%，至89.7457美元，铂金和钯金亦有所上涨。美元现货指数在周二上涨0.2%后持 平。 黄金价格接近历史最高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of $4600 per ounce, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic cycles, policy expectations, and a concentration of global risk premiums [1][9] - The gold and silver markets are experiencing a strong correlation, indicating a systemic demand for the entire precious metals sector, with silver showing greater volatility and resilience during liquidity easing periods [6] - Geopolitical risks have significantly contributed to the rise in gold prices, as the ongoing uncertainties have shifted demand for gold from tactical to structural, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 2 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report showed a mixed picture, with job additions below expectations, yet the unemployment rate slightly decreased, leading to a neutral market reaction regarding monetary policy [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are impacting the credibility of the dollar, with historical trends indicating that doubts about monetary policy independence often lead to increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [5] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of gradual allocation in precious metals rather than attempting to time the market perfectly, as the real risk lies in prolonged inaction rather than short-term price fluctuations [7]

Group 1 - UBS predicts that silver prices may rise to $85 per ounce within three months and could reach triple-digit historical highs within the year [1] - UBS has raised its price forecasts for both gold and silver, expecting gold to reach $5000 by the end of Q1 and silver to reach $85 [1] - Despite concerns of silver being overbought, UBS analysts believe that sustained investment demand will support silver prices, potentially leading to a historic breakthrough above $100 [1] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio may decline to between 30-50, similar to the 1970-1980s period, with silver prices expected to reach triple digits [2] - Recent export restrictions from China have heightened concerns over supply shortages in the global silver market [2] - Analysts suggest that ongoing supply deficits and resistance to mid-term production increases could be key catalysts for the current silver market rally [2] - Jim Rickards asserts that silver prices could experience explosive growth, potentially reaching $200 due to concerns over unilateral U.S. sanctions and banks increasing holdings of non-seizable assets [2]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has significantly declined, ending its upward trend since the beginning of the year, primarily driven by uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve and upcoming Supreme Court policy decisions [1] - The US Department of Justice has accused Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell of construction cost issues, escalating the controversy and raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] - The market is focused on the upcoming US CPI data for December, with expectations of a year-on-year growth rate of 2.7% and core CPI rising from 2.6% to 2.7% [4] Group 2 - Non-US currencies have generally rebounded against the weakening dollar, with the euro ending a four-day decline, while the Japanese yen has fallen to a one-year low amid political developments [2] - Precious metals have shown active performance, with gold reaching $4600 before retreating, and silver rising by 6.6% to surpass $85 [2] - Global stock markets have continued their strong performance, with major US and European indices reaching historical highs, particularly in defensive sectors [2] Group 3 - The euro has faced resistance at 1.1695, and if the US CPI data is lower than expected, it may support a short-term rebound for the euro [5] - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of overbought correction after reaching historical highs, with key support levels identified [6]