Core Viewpoint - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, precious metals have surged, with silver rising by 3.81% and gold increasing over 2%, surpassing the 3700 mark and setting a new historical high [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Silver has shown a significant increase of 3.81% [1] - Gold has risen over 2%, reaching above 3700, marking a new historical high [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks have increased their gold purchases, adding over 400 tons in the first half of this year, following three consecutive years of buying over 1000 tons [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The trend of rising gold prices is supported by a shift towards de-globalization, the U.S. initiating trade wars, and a gradual decline in the credibility of the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's re-initiation of the interest rate cut cycle is expected to further weaken the dollar, opening up more upward potential for gold prices [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Silver, being a smaller market commodity, is expected to show greater elasticity, with its price likely to exceed that of gold in the later stages of a gold bull market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals and economic data have led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices rose to $3,631, nearing historical highs, with a strong upward trend supported by a 94% probability of rate cuts [1]. - Silver prices surged to $41.77, breaking the previous resistance level of $41.67, confirming an upward trend with higher highs and higher lows [1][3]. - Platinum remained stable at $1,383, supported by the 50-day moving average, but lagged behind gold and silver due to a lack of strong catalysts [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data has shown a "dovish" trend, with significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls and a deflationary state in the Producer Price Index (PPI), creating favorable conditions for the Fed to initiate a rate cut [2][4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation, while initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, signaling a cooling job market [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The expectation of rate cuts has created a dual benefit for precious metals by suppressing the dollar and real interest rates, enhancing their attractiveness as investment assets [3]. - The ongoing discussions regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership and potential reforms to reduce its balance sheet are contributing to market uncertainty, which may further support precious metal prices [4].

Group 1 - The core inflation data for August shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating that inflation has not worsened but remains sticky [3] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, signaling a slowdown in the labor market [3] - The economic slowdown further strengthens expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with potential for three cumulative cuts by the end of the year [3] Group 2 - The recent discussions by Treasury Secretary Besant with potential Federal Reserve chair candidates indicate a broader selection process beyond the previously publicized list [3] - Besant is advocating for a "gradual reduction of the balance sheet" as a core reform for the Federal Reserve, aiming to reduce its substantial bond holdings and lessen economic intervention [3] - The combination of pressure for rate cuts from the White House and leadership transition risks enhances market expectations for continued easing policies, supporting precious metal prices [3] Group 3 - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long-term upward trend, with short-term gold prices projected to fluctuate between $3,550 and $3,730 per ounce [4] - The medium-term outlook for gold suggests a potential new high near $3,800 per ounce [4] - Silver prices are closely monitored around the $43 per ounce resistance level, with a breakthrough potentially targeting $45 per ounce [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive [3][49]. - Since the beginning of this year, silver has been strongly favored. Although the silver price has risen by over 40% since the start of the year, it is still at a low level in terms of both absolute and relative prices compared to gold and copper, and has greater price elasticity, so its price trend is more promising [3][49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Review - In August 2025, precious metal prices were strong. Weak US non - farm payroll data at the beginning of August and Trump's actions triggered recession concerns and increased rate - cut expectations, driving up precious metal prices. However, strong PPI data in July weakened the September rate - cut expectation, pressuring precious metal prices. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 20th boosted precious metal prices again. As of the end of August, the monthly increase of the COMEX gold futures main contract was 5.2%, and that of the COMEX silver futures main contract was 10.76%. In September, Trump's intensified intervention and weak non - farm data continued to strengthen rate - cut expectations and push up precious metal prices. The depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in August made the domestic precious metal price increase weaker than that of the international market [8]. II. Analysis of Precious Metals Price Influencing Factors 1. Intensification of the Fed's Independence Crisis - Since Trump's second term in January 2025, he has repeatedly attacked Fed Chairman Powell for slow rate - cuts and threatened to dismiss him to offset the negative impact of tariff policies and reduce government debt interest. Although it is difficult to dismiss the Fed Chairman according to the current legal framework, the list of potential candidates has been narrowed to three. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August shifted from hawkish to dovish, possibly indicating the beginning of the end of the Fed's independence. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 25th was the first direct dismissal by a president since the Fed's establishment in 1913, intensifying market concerns about the Fed's independence, lowering long - term US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and pushing up gold prices [15][16]. 2. Weak Non - farm Payrolls Strengthen Rate - cut Expectations - The August non - farm payroll data continued to deteriorate, with only 22,000 new jobs added, far lower than the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the hourly wage growth rate was lower than before, all supporting the Fed's rate - cut. Other employment - related data also indicated a cooling labor market. Although the current evidence for a US economic recession is insufficient, Trump's greater control over the Fed provides political motivation for rate - cuts. Considering inflation data, the Fed may choose to cut rates by 25bp continuously, with 2 - 3 rate cuts this year [17][18]. III. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 1. Changes in the Gold - Silver Ratio - In August, the silver price outperformed the gold price, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio dropped from 90.4 to around 85. Recently, with the gold price hitting a new high, the ratio rebounded slightly. It is expected that the silver price will continue to catch up, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to decline [22]. 2. Changes in Futures - Spot and Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads - In the first half of August, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated narrowly, and it depreciated in late August, narrowing the spread between Shanghai gold futures and COMEX gold futures. The spread between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures was within the normal range, and the domestic futures - spot spreads were also normal [24]. 3. Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought over 1000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In the second quarter of 2025, central bank gold - buying slowed down, with a net purchase of 166 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease. However, the first - half - year purchase was above the five - year average and over 40% higher than the ten - year average. China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month in August. It is expected that central banks will continue to buy gold in 2025, supporting gold demand [27][28]. 4. Changes in Precious Metals Inventories - Since December last year, due to the expectation of Trump's possible import tariffs on gold, a large amount of gold was transported to New York, increasing COMEX gold inventories. As of September 5, 2025, COMEX gold inventories were 38.96 million ounces (about 1212 tons), a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 129% year - on - year increase. COMEX silver inventories were 518.37 million ounces (about 16123 tons), a 2.38% month - on - month increase and a 69% year - on - year increase. In August, the silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased slightly [29][31]. 5. Analysis of Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In the past three years, the positive correlation between the holdings of international gold and silver ETFs and precious metal prices has weakened. Recently, as the gold price hit new highs, funds flowed into gold and silver ETFs. In the second quarter of 2025, gold ETF investment was a key driver of gold demand. As of September 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR reached 982 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - ishares increased to 15194 tons [37][38]. 6. Changes in CFTC Positions - The non - commercial positions in COMEX represent the trend of speculative funds and usually lead the precious metal price trend. Since mid - August, the non - commercial net long positions in silver futures have increased rapidly, corresponding to the strong rise in the silver price. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures were 249,530 contracts, and those in COMEX silver futures were 55,923 contracts. The inflow of speculative funds directly promoted the precious metal price increase at the end of August and the beginning of September [43]. IV. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - Trump's intervention in the Fed and weak US employment data have strengthened the market's rate - cut expectations. Multiple positive factors such as capital inflows into ETFs, central bank gold - buying, and the recovery of physical demand support precious metal prices. Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive. Silver is more favored due to its relatively low price and high price elasticity [49].

Summary of Global Precious Metals Comment Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **precious metals industry**, particularly **gold** and **silver**. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has seen a resurgence in interest as of September, reaching record highs, with silver also surpassing the $40 mark [1] - The recent rally in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, concerns about the Fed's independence, lower real yields, and a weakening US dollar [1][2] - Despite previous price consolidations, investor sentiment towards gold remains positive, with many waiting for optimal entry points [1] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The anticipation of Fed rate cuts has intensified, driven by weakening economic data and uncertainties surrounding tariffs [2] - Concerns regarding the Fed's credibility amid political pressures could act as a bullish catalyst for gold, reinforcing its status as a hedge against systemic risks [3] - The inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar has provided additional support for gold prices [3] Market Positioning and Future Outlook - Current market positioning in gold remains low, suggesting potential for further price increases as investor allocations grow [4] - The report anticipates that gold could reach between $3600 and $3700, while silver may rise to $44 or $45 [4] - Historical trends indicate that gold typically performs well in the fourth quarter, coinciding with increased physical demand during wedding and festival seasons in India and China [25] Risks and Considerations - There is a caution against shorting gold at current highs due to the prevailing macroeconomic environment, which is characterized by uncertainty [4] - A potential pullback in gold prices could occur if US economic data exceeds expectations, leading to a recalibration of Fed rate expectations [24] - The report suggests that while a significant correction is unlikely, support levels around $3450 and $3400 are expected to hold [24] Strategic Importance of Gold - Gold's role as a strategic asset is emphasized, particularly in times of high macroeconomic and geopolitical risks [33] - The report predicts that core allocations to gold will increase as more investors recognize its value in enhancing portfolio resilience [33] - Official sector purchases are expected to remain strong, with net buying projected at around 900-950 tonnes for the year [33] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is bullish for gold and silver, with expectations of continued price increases driven by a broadening investor base and seasonal demand factors [32][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising popularity of silver and gold as asset allocation options for ordinary people amid global inflation pressures, driven by supply-demand imbalances, safe-haven demand, and industrial revolution benefits [2][3][4][5][6]. Group 2 - The global silver market has experienced a continuous supply-demand imbalance for five years, with a projected shortfall of 5,000 tons in 2024 and 3,660 tons in 2025, driven by weak mining output and surging demand from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries [3]. - Increased geopolitical tensions and trade frictions have led to a surge in safe-haven investments, with silver becoming a new target for funds due to its lower price and greater elasticity compared to gold [4]. - The gold-silver ratio reached as high as 105:1, prompting market participants to view silver as undervalued, leading to increased investments in silver to align its price closer to gold [5]. - Gold is viewed as a "safe-haven" asset due to its monetary properties and stability, with central banks globally purchasing record amounts of gold, reinforcing its long-term value [6]. - Silver's industrial properties make it more sensitive to economic recovery, with demand driven by factors such as accelerated photovoltaic installations and manufacturing PMI rebounds, allowing it to hedge against inflation while capturing growth opportunities [8]. Group 3 - Data comparisons show that in March 2025, when U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, gold rose by 1.8% while silver only increased by 0.7%, indicating gold's dominant safe-haven role; conversely, in June, when manufacturing PMI improved, silver rose by 1.1% while gold only increased by 0.3%, highlighting silver's industrial strength [10]. - Recommendations for ordinary investors include diversifying their portfolios with a mix of gold and silver based on risk preferences, such as conservative (70% gold, 30% silver) or balanced (50% gold, 50% silver) allocations [10]. - Suggested investment tools include physical assets like gold and silver bars, ETFs for liquidity, and account trading for convenience, while cautioning against common pitfalls such as chasing high prices, ignoring storage costs, and making single-asset bets [10].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is entering an upward cycle driven by multiple favorable factors, with gold and silver prices expected to diverge during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and macroeconomic changes [1]. Demand Analysis - Global gold ETFs have increased holdings by approximately 440 tons this year, reversing a four-year trend of net outflows, indicating a resurgence in institutional demand for gold [3]. - Silver ETF holdings have increased by 127 million ounces during the same period, although caution is advised regarding speculative trading that may lead to price surges [3]. Market Insights - India's gold import data showed signs of improvement in July, despite a record low in jewelry demand during the second quarter. The expected boost in consumer purchasing power from Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms may lay the groundwork for future demand recovery [6]. - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, driven by three core factors: the ongoing Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, potential further weakening of the U.S. dollar index (DXY), and a possible recovery in jewelry consumption in emerging markets [6]. - For silver, despite a cautious outlook with a target price of $40.9 per ounce, the stable production of solar panels and a 7% year-on-year contraction in Mexican mineral supply suggest the potential for unexpected price increases [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The strong negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar remains a key pricing logic. A continued depreciation of the dollar index would directly benefit precious metals priced in dollars [9]. Overall Outlook - The report emphasizes that gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation properties during the interest rate cut cycle will support its price increase, while silver must balance industrial demand and speculative sentiment [12]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor Federal Reserve policy movements, dollar trends, and signs of consumer recovery in the Indian market to seize structural opportunities in the precious metals market [12].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged, with silver breaking the $40 per ounce mark for the first time since 2011, showing a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1] - As of the latest report, London spot silver is priced at $40.56 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.27%, while New York silver futures rose over 1.5%, reaching a peak of $41.64 per ounce [1] - The Shanghai silver futures market also saw significant gains, with the main contract rising over 4% to close at 9,775 yuan per kilogram, marking a year-to-date increase of 30% [1] Group 2 - The World Silver Institute's report indicates that global silver supply in 2024 is projected to be 1.015 billion ounces, with primary mine production accounting for 81% of this supply [1] - Total global silver demand in 2024 is expected to reach 1.164 billion ounces, with industrial demand constituting 6.81 billion ounces, or 58.5% of the total demand, primarily driven by sectors like electronics and solar energy [1] - The increasing demand for silver in photovoltaic applications, coupled with limited supply growth, is creating a tight market that supports rising silver prices [1] Group 3 - Factors driving the increase in silver prices include global reflation tendencies, limitations of current Federal Reserve monetary policy, and shifts in the global political landscape and credit currency systems [3] - Silver is viewed as a precious metal with inherent safe-haven and monetary properties, which historically have led to its price movements following gold, but with greater volatility due to its significant industrial demand [3] - Concerns regarding potential U.S. government trade protection measures on key metals like silver may enhance its safe-haven and substitute demand, suggesting that silver could have greater upside potential compared to gold [3]

Market Overview - On September 1, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.55% [1] - The total trading volume for the market reached 1.85 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous day, with over 3,100 stocks rising [1] Key Stocks and Sectors - The top trading stock was Cambrian (688256) with a trading volume of 18.6 billion yuan, followed by Xinyi (300502), Zhongji (300308), and Dongfang Caifu (300059), each exceeding 10 billion yuan in trading volume [1][2] - The precious metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, film and television, tourism, and storage chip sectors saw significant gains, while insurance, military equipment, securities, and airport shipping sectors experienced pullbacks [2] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector surged, with stocks like Haixing (603115), Jintong (601958), and Shengda Resources (000603) hitting the daily limit, while Hunan Gold (002155) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) also saw gains [4] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to the recent increase in the U.S. core PCE index, which aligns with expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks and trade tensions [4][6] Innovative Pharmaceuticals Sector - The innovative pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with Maiwei Bio (688062) hitting the daily limit and other stocks like Baihua Pharmaceutical (600721) and First Pharmaceutical (600833) also experiencing significant gains [7][8] - Maiwei Bio announced the approval of its two biosimilar products in Pakistan, marking a significant milestone as the first biosimilar approved in the country, and has also entered a licensing agreement with Calico Life Sciences for global rights outside Greater China [9] - The recent adjustments in the national medical insurance catalog are expected to increase the attractiveness of innovative drugs, with a focus on new drugs and unique products [9]

Group 1 - The price of silver has surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by increased investor demand for precious metals amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1] - Silver prices have risen over 40% year-to-date, with gold, platinum, and palladium also experiencing gains [1] - Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the financial environment have led investors to favor precious metals as safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently estimate an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month [2] - The industrial application of silver in clean energy technologies, such as solar panels, is supporting its price [2] - The global silver market is expected to experience a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, with significant inflows into silver-backed ETFs [2]