Group 1 - The world is potentially forming a dual financial trend, with COMEX and SHFE as potential winners, while LME may suffer significant losses, particularly in industrial and financial-related precious metals like gold, silver, and copper [1] - The liquidity trends indicate a national-level withdrawal of liquidity, as no single entity can manage the liquidity of three precious metals simultaneously, highlighting the challenges faced by the London market [1] - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3346.4 billion in November, marking a slight increase of $3 billion from October, and maintaining stability above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, the highest since December 2015 [1][5] Group 2 - The central bank's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 74.12 million ounces, marking 13 consecutive months of accumulation, reflecting a strategic choice to optimize reserve structure and mitigate financial risks amid a complex international environment [3][5] - The stable foreign reserves are crucial for ensuring smooth international trade payments and cross-border investments, providing a solid external credit environment for Chinese enterprises [5] - The slight increase in foreign reserves in November was influenced by market factors, including a 0.3% decline in the US dollar index and rising non-US currencies, indicating a reduced correlation with other major currencies [5][9] Group 3 - Gold is viewed as a quality asset to avoid sanctions and currency fluctuations, with China's accumulation aimed at stabilizing the RMB exchange rate and enhancing its pricing power in the global precious metals market [8] - The current gold reserves account for approximately 9.28% of total foreign reserves, significantly below the global average of 15%, indicating a need for continued accumulation to diversify reserves [8] - The increase in gold reserves is expected to enhance international trust in the RMB, supporting trade models that involve "RMB pricing + gold settlement" in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [8][9] Group 4 - The recent foreign reserve data alleviates concerns over exchange rate fluctuations, stabilizing expectations for import-export enterprises and reducing hedging costs [9] - The surge in China's gold ETF size by 223% in 2025, from 73 billion to 236.1 billion, demonstrates the positive market impact of the central bank's gold accumulation [9][12] - The combination of stable foreign reserves and a reasonable reserve structure is likely to attract foreign investment, enhancing confidence in the Chinese market [12]

（原标题：巴西黑天鹅事件！股市大跌 货币重挫约2.5%） 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件，直接股汇双杀。 有分析师表示："市场原本希望整个右翼能在弗雷塔斯身后实现大团结。但现在右翼反而是分裂了。现 在只是把之前那股过度乐观情绪修正一下。离大选还有很久，各种新闻标题都会继续带来巨大的波 动。" 自上月末以来，谁来接班右翼的讨论愈发受到关注——当时博索纳罗因为策划政变、推翻其2022年大选 失利结果而开始服27年刑期。中间派盟友和投资者原本把这视为一个转折点，认为会迫使这位仍坚称自 己明年还会参选的前总统"交班"。很多人都把目光投向弗雷塔斯，视其为右翼击败卢拉的最佳希望。 虽然圣保罗州长弗雷塔斯在不同的投资者场合上讲话时，颇有"候选人"的味道，但他迄今仍坚持称自己 打算竞选连任州长。他在潜在总统参选问题上一直极为谨慎，并多次释放信号：只有在博索纳罗明确支 持的情况下，他才可能出马。 有分析师表示："市场之前预期弗雷塔斯会成为博索纳罗钦点的候选人，而市场的技术面仓位在一定程 度上也反映了这种乐观情绪。相比之下，弗拉维奥对阵卢拉的竞争力更弱，而且在经济政策预期方面也 更差，这对巴西资产都是负面因素。" ...

弗拉维奥参议员办公室对外证实，他将作为自由党的候选人挑战现任总统卢拉。 此前，受新兴市场整体上涨行情以及市场对弗雷塔斯可能参选的期待支撑，巴西资产今年表现不错。尽 管左翼现任总统卢拉预计将竞选第四个任期，而且在早期民调中领先，但交易员越来越认为，如果弗雷 塔斯出马，将是右翼阵营击败现任总统的最佳机会。 【导读】巴西的黑天鹅事件 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件， 直接股汇双杀。 巴西股市周五大跌，股市创下自2021年以来最糟糕的一天，货币也重挫约 2.5%。原因是巴西前总统博 索纳罗公开支持自己的一个儿子，作为右翼阵营在明年10月总统选举中的候选人。 在当地媒体Metropoles披露这一消息后，巴西货币雷亚尔就开始走弱。随后，巴西前总统长子、参议员 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在X平台上确认了其父亲的背书，雷亚尔跌势加速。巴西Ibovespa股指收跌4.3%。与 此同时，一些作为货币政策预期风向标的利率互换合约收益率狂飙逾50个基点，反映出投资者大举撤销 此前"博索纳罗会支持圣保罗州长塔尔西济奥·德·弗雷塔斯参选"的押注。 弗拉维奥在X平台上写道："怀着极大的责任，我确认巴西最伟大的 ...

【导读】巴西的黑天鹅事件 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件，直接股汇双杀。 巴西股市周五大跌，股市创下自2021年以来最糟糕的一天，货币也重挫约 2.5%。原因是巴西前总统博索纳罗公开支持自己的一个儿子，作为右翼阵营 在明年10月总统选举中的候选人。 在当地媒体Metropoles披露这一消息后，巴西货币雷亚尔就开始走弱。随后，巴西前总统长子、参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在X平台上确认了其父亲的背 书，雷亚尔跌势加速。巴西Ibovespa股指收跌4.3%。与此同时，一些作为货币政策预期风向标的利率互换合约收益率狂飙逾50个基点，反映出投资者 大举撤销此前"博索纳罗会支持圣保罗州长塔尔西济奥·德·弗雷塔斯参选"的押注。 弗拉维奥在X平台上写道："怀着极大的责任，我确认巴西最伟大的政治与道德领袖雅伊尔·梅西亚斯·博索纳罗作出的决定——他将继续我们国家项目的 使命托付给我。" 弗拉维奥参议员办公室对外证实，他将作为自由党的候选人挑战现任总统卢拉。 此前，受新兴市场整体上涨行情以及市场对弗雷塔斯可能参选的期待支撑，巴西资产今年表现不错。尽管左翼现任总统卢拉预计将竞选第四个任期， 而且在早期民调中领先，但交易员 ...

来源：央视财经 【#白银价格飙涨##奈飞宣布收购华纳兄弟#】当地时间周五，受政府停摆影响而推迟发布的关键通胀数 据——美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数出炉。数据显示，当月剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格 后的核心个人消费支出价格指数同比上涨2.8%，增速较此前一个月有所放缓。另外，美国密歇根大学 公布的1年通胀预期降至今年以来低点，消费者信心也有所改善，以上消息强化了投资者对美联储将在 下周宣布降息的预期，提振了市场风险偏好，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅不超1%。 本周美国三大股指全部累计上涨 5日国际白银价格显著上涨 此外，白银价格显著上涨，伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破每盎司59美元，刷新历史纪录。纽商所白银 期货主力合约价格当天收于每盎司59美元上方，涨幅超过2.7%，今年以来累计涨幅已超过100%。 5日欧洲三大股指小幅波动 欧洲方面，欧盟统计局周五公布的数据显示，今年第三季度欧元区GDP环比增长0.3%，高于预估值。 欧元区经济回暖主要得益于投资和消费的提振。其中法国和西班牙的经济增速位居前列。不过目前俄乌 和平谈判依然陷入僵局，令投资者保持谨慎态度，一定程度上令欧洲股市承压。截至当天收盘，欧洲三 大 ...

亚洲股市之外，全球市场正上演"美元走弱、万物皆涨"的罕见行情。黄金与美股期货双双突破昨日高 点，美国国债价格同步走高，而美元指数则持续下挫——这一系列联动发生在美联储核心通胀指标公布 前夜，构成极具戏剧性的市场预演。 本文源自：热点快报 按常规逻辑，重要数据发布前市场应呈现"轻仓观望、关键位蓄势"的谨慎姿态。但当前行情却呈现"美 元下跌+股指期货上行+黄金突破+美债收益率下行"的全面一致特征，这种在关键数据窗口期提前形成 的单边趋势，早已超越"中性预期"的合理范畴。 作者：AI君 这种异常行情背后往往隐藏着两种可能：其一，关键经济数据可能已被市场通过非官方渠道提前获悉； 其二，华尔街主力机构已形成"无论数据好坏，均按此方向解读"的共识性策略。若属后一种情形则更需 警惕——当市场在数据发布前便以突破性走势形成一致性预期，往往意味着交易逻辑已从"数据本身"转 向"数据后的叙事逻辑"。 此刻的市场已非单纯的数据反应场，而成为叙事博弈的战场。那些在关键点位形成的突破性走势，既可 能是对潜在利好的提前定价，也可能是叙事主导下的预期管理。今晚的焦点，已悄然从"通胀数据的具 体数值"转向"市场如何解读这个数值"——这场关于 ...

市场关注点集中在即将公布的 PCE——若通胀意外偏强，黄金可能在短线承压，美元与收益率或出现 反弹；反之，金价的支撑区间可能进一步稳固。降息预期已基本被市场提前计入，情绪一致的环境下， 任何偏离预期的数据都可能引发快速的价格修正。 当前市场叙事已逐渐聚焦于两件事：PCE 数据与下周的美联储会议。美股进入明显整理阶段；黄金在 关键关口表现稳健；美元暂时维持企稳。随着哈塞特的表态强化市场信号，降息预期已成为牵引资产价 格的主要逻辑。 亚洲交易时段，金价围绕 4205 美元整理。美债收益率的上扬与就业数据的稳健表现，令金价上行受到 抑制，但即将到来的降息窗口使下方支撑仍较坚实。此前延后的 9 月 PCE 物价指数将在今晚公布，作 为美联储最看重的通胀参考，尽管属于滞后数据，但足以左右市场对下周会议最终结果的预判。在数据 落地之前，交易员普遍选择维持轻仓，金价波动幅度也被压缩。 白宫近期将凯文·哈塞特列入美联储主席潜在人选，使其公开表态备受关注。他直言美联储在 12 月降息 25 个基点的可能性"非常高"，并强调当前内部讨论的方向整体偏向宽松。市场反应迅速，CME 工具显 示，交易员给出的降息概率已攀升至 87%—9 ...

Let's bring in Kevin Green now who joins me to get us across some more data and we just have hitting the tape of the 10hour. The ISM services numbers talk us through what you're seeing there as far as the PMIs today. Kevin.>> Yeah, actually if you're looking at ISM services PMIs are actually better than the street's expectations in two areas here. If you're looking at the overall number that came in at 52.6%, Street was looking for 52 even and that's actually better than what we saw last uh month at 52.4% h ...

On Nov. 20, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 4.4% for the month, and it looked as though its six-month winning streak was about to end. Instead, it rallied over the final 10 days of November to eke out a win and extend the streak to seven months heading into December. With the index up over 20% during the streak, should we worry that the market is overextended? This week, I’m digging into the historical data to find out.  Looking Closely at 7-Month Win StreaksSince 1950, there have been 15 previous seven-mo ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation, with different commodities and sectors presenting various trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market participants should pay close attention to these factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. The external market oil price fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although there are some short - term positive news, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the supply is still expected to be loose in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is also alleviated, and attention should be paid to whether the end - of - year shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve its supply - demand structure [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiated price trend. The demand in Northeast and North China is gradually stagnant, while the South China market is weak. The weekly shipment volume is at a low level in the past four years, and it is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. Silver's upward trend slowed after hitting a new high, and gold also showed fluctuations. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation. Platinum is stronger than palladium in performance [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, while Shanghai copper showed some resilience in the previous trading - intensive area. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions increased slightly, and the spot discount slightly expanded. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is testing the previous high of 22,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic supply and demand of zinc both decreased, while the overseas zinc ingot spot is tight. The LME zinc is running at a high level, and the export window is open, driving the domestic market up. The bottom support of zinc is strong, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transferring the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic refined - scrap lead price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is at a low level. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase the high, and a medium - to - long - term short - allocation with a hedging strategy is suggested [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the decline in polysilicon prices. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the DMC price trend [10] - **Iron & Steel Related** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is strong, and the domestic arrival volume is high. The port inventory is accumulating. The demand for iron ore may further decline. The market has expectations for policy benefits, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Coke**: The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. The market has expectations for downstream replenishment. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has a slight increase. The price is expected to maintain a rebound in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. The market expects downstream replenishment. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated during the day. The spot price of manganese ore increased. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of the reduction in Ghana's shipment [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated during the day. The market expects coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power cost and blue - carbon price. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the export demand has decreased. The supply of silicon iron has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene's price slightly increased. The supply of polyethylene has limited changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to slightly increase, and the short - term demand is also weak [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillates. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may be relieved. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda oscillates weakly. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient [26] - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX and PTA is driven down by the oil price. PTA continues to cut production, and the demand for PX is weak in the short term. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to be repaired [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and its price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip's demand is weak, and the over - capacity is a long - term pressure [29] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation platform, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export and South American weather [33] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil's near - month contract is reducing positions and shifting positions. The supply of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in November, and the Indonesian export policy is favorable. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound [34] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has not improved, and rapeseed is oscillating at the bottom. Rapeseed meal's demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly destocking. The rapeseed series is expected to oscillate in a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight. The US soybean is affected by South American weather and export factors, and is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - **Corn**: The spot market drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The new grain supply is lower than expected, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. Attention should be paid to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [37] - **Pork**: The pork futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price is slightly down. The southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures rose sharply and then fell. The far - month contract should not be chased up, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: The US cotton slightly decreased. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn price is stable, and the new orders are insufficient. The industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillates. The production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production in Guangxi is expected to be good [41] - **Apple**: The apple futures oscillate at a high level. The spot price is strong, and the inventory is lower than last year. In the long - term, there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contract [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures oscillate. The supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the price [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with reduced volume yesterday. The stock index futures all closed down. The external market is mixed. The short - term macro - liquidity factor has uncertainties, and a wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [45] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures oscillate. The six major banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - value deposits. The bond market sentiment is cautious, and the long - term interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase [46]