Core Viewpoint - The Credit Risk Mitigation Warrant (CRMW) serves as a "credit bridge" to alleviate financing difficulties for private enterprises, with recent revisions to the operational guidelines aimed at enhancing its effectiveness in supporting the real economy [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections CRMW Overview - CRMW is a key tool for supporting bond financing for private enterprises and risk-sharing for technology innovation bonds, functioning similarly to a "credit insurance policy" for specific debts [2]. - Since the introduction of the CRMW model linked to bond issuance in 2018, approximately 150 billion has been created, supporting over 340 billion in bond issuances for more than a hundred enterprises [2]. Recent Developments - The inclusion of "debt restructuring" as a credit event in CRMW products for technology companies marks a significant expansion of risk coverage, enhancing investor confidence and improving financial services for the real economy [3]. Revisions to Operational Guidelines - The recent revisions to the operational guidelines include four main optimizations to better support the financing of the real economy: 1. Establishing a comprehensive CRMW regulatory framework that includes self-regulatory rules, business guidelines, operational details, and standard texts [4]. 2. Removing restrictions on CRMW business by decoupling the creation institutions from core dealers, allowing more financial and credit enhancement institutions to participate [5]. 3. Strengthening the responsibilities and rights of participants by adding self-regulatory norms and clarifying requirements for information disclosure, pricing, trading, and management [5]. 4. Setting differentiated requirements based on the characteristics of CRMW, such as simplifying disclosure requirements for financial institutions and allowing for price inquiry methods for bond-linked creations [5].

黄金犹如坐过山车，上周大幅下杀后，本周初便强力反弹，力度之大令人咋舌。从周线看，整体仍处于震荡区间。月线收官时收出十字星，这一形 态为后市走势增添了诸多悬念。技术上十字星是中继信号，并非顶部信号，但震荡格局尚未打破，何时能迎来趋势性行情，仍是未知数。4小时图 上，黄金在黄金分割位50%处难以站稳，主要支阻均线对金价形成压制，下跌风险隐现。3451以来的下降趋势线形成的侧向支撑，也岌岌可危。日 线上金价位于走平的布林中轨，昨日刺破后收回，后市方向不明。但结合前两日收阳且探底回升的态势，后市看多概率增大，或呈现亚盘回落、欧 盘或美盘上扬的走势，目前上方阻力在3344-3349，下方支撑在3321-3315，操作上建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅。 操作策略1：建议反弹3339-3345做空，损3352，目标看3320-3300。 操作策略2：建议回调3305-3300做多，损3290，目标看3325-3345。 生活除了投资，还有诗和远方，以及徐老师。面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎言，才是成功的根本。目 前主要研究现货黄金为主，笔者涉足金融以及金融衍生品分析多年，指导经验丰富，以 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-02 股市情绪偏暖，债市情绪有所企稳 股指期货：政策开始关注制造业利润 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：债市情绪有所企稳 股指期货方面，政策开始关注制造业利润。新的热点主题接力，恒科 创新药指数剔除CXO公司，光伏玻璃推进减产，指向产能出清加速，推动 医药、有色行业领涨。另外，中央财经委会议强调治理低价无序竞争、 推动落后产能有序退出、树立正确政绩观，或指向制造业部分行业"反内 卷"，有望推动产业链利润触底，利好通胀链，观察进一步落地措施。 在中报预告的背景下，或强化对业绩预增的关注。情绪偏暖环境下，保留 多头配置，操作上，继续配置IM多单。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号:Z0016853 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。期权方面，我们昨日重点关注的市场 成交额出现持续回落，交易流动性不及预期。在流动性低迷的衍生品市场 环境下，情绪指标展示同步性而并未指引性，同时隐含波动率的变化也仅 仅对应行情当日涨跌，各个品种平均隐含波动率下行0.52%。当前期权流 动性和波动率的 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures, including the three major indices and the Russell 2000, experienced a decline of up to 0.2% during the early trading session on July 1 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the extension of the "Northbound Swap Connect" product contract period to 30 years, enhancing the interconnectivity of the domestic and foreign interest rate derivatives market [1] - On the launch day of the optimization measures, 25 domestic and foreign institutions actively participated in transactions of over 10 years RMB interest rate swaps, with a total trading volume of 1.53 billion RMB [1] - The optimization will improve the yield curve, fill the gap for ultra-long-term interest rate management tools, and enhance the diversity of cross-border investment strategies [1] Group 2 - Since its launch in May 2023, the "Northbound Swap Connect" has seen increasing trading activity, with a cumulative transaction volume of 7.16 trillion RMB by June 2025, attracting 82 foreign institutions [2] - The "Northbound Swap Connect" has become a primary channel for foreign investors to manage RMB asset interest rate risks, continuously attracting more foreign capital to increase holdings in Chinese market bonds [2] - Future plans include enriching the product types of the "Swap Connect" and improving the risk management framework to promote the joint development of the financial markets in mainland China and Hong Kong [2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[43] - **Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Parameters and Settings**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 27, 2025[44] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[44] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end, short the corresponding nominal principal amount of CSI 500 (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000) stock index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantity of the spot and futures ends based on the product's net value[44] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days. On that day, close the position at the closing price and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[44] - **Remarks**: Allocate equal principal to the spot and futures ends, without considering transaction fees, impact costs, and the non-infinite divisibility of futures contracts[44] - **Evaluation**: The strategy is designed to optimize hedging by continuously adjusting positions based on basis convergence factors[43] Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The strategy selects the contract with the smallest annualized basis discount for hedging[45] - **Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Parameters and Settings**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 27, 2025[45] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[45] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end, short the corresponding nominal principal amount of CSI 500 (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000) stock index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantity of the spot and futures ends based on the product's net value[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: When rebalancing, calculate the annualized basis of all tradable futures contracts on the day and select the contract with the smallest annualized basis discount for opening a position. Hold the same contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days, then select a new contract (excluding futures contracts with less than 8 days to expiration). Even if the selection result is to hold the original contract unchanged, continue to hold for 8 trading days[45] - **Remarks**: Allocate equal principal to the spot and futures ends, without considering transaction fees, impact costs, and the non-infinite divisibility of futures contracts[45] - **Evaluation**: The strategy aims to minimize basis discount by selecting the optimal contract for hedging[45] Model Backtesting Results Continuous Hedging Strategy - **CSI 500 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: -2.77% (monthly), -2.08% (quarterly), -0.98% (minimum basis)[47] - **Volatility**: 3.88% (monthly), 4.77% (quarterly), 4.69% (minimum basis)[47] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -8.15% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis)[47] - **Net Value**: 0.9215 (monthly), 0.9405 (quarterly), 0.9718 (minimum basis)[47] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 17.53 (minimum basis)[47] - **2025 YTD Return**: -3.31% (monthly), -1.35% (quarterly), -0.69% (minimum basis)[47] - **CSI 300 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: 0.58% (monthly), 0.77% (quarterly), 1.42% (minimum basis)[52] - **Volatility**: 3.02% (monthly), 3.37% (quarterly), 3.16% (minimum basis)[52] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis)[52] - **Net Value**: 1.0171 (monthly), 1.0226 (quarterly), 1.0418 (minimum basis)[52] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 15.46 (minimum basis)[52] - **2025 YTD Return**: -0.63% (monthly), 0.27% (quarterly), 0.82% (minimum basis)[52] - **SSE 50 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: 1.07% (monthly), 2.04% (quarterly), 1.76% (minimum basis)[56] - **Volatility**: 3.14% (monthly), 3.57% (quarterly), 3.16% (minimum basis)[56] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis)[56] - **Net Value**: 1.0315 (monthly), 1.0605 (quarterly), 1.0521 (minimum basis)[56] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 15.81 (minimum basis)[56] - **2025 YTD Return**: 0.07% (monthly), 1.11% (quarterly), 1.09% (minimum basis)[56] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: -6.00% (monthly), -4.44% (quarterly), -3.79% (minimum basis)[58] - **Volatility**: 4.73% (monthly), 5.78% (quarterly), 5.60% (minimum basis)[58] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis)[58] - **Net Value**: 0.8523 (monthly), 0.8843 (quarterly), 0.9009 (minimum basis)[58] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 16.02 (minimum basis)[58] - **2025 YTD Return**: -8.76% (monthly), -4.36% (quarterly), -3.55% (minimum basis)[58] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset[61] - **Construction Process**: - **Algorithm**: Based on the methodology in the report series "Exploring Market Sentiment Implied in the Options Market"[61] - **Data**: As of June 27, 2025, the 30-day VIX values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 17.47, 16.92, 23.84, and 21.35, respectively[61] - **Evaluation**: The index accurately reflects the volatility expectations of the market for different time horizons[61] Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices[69] - **Construction Process**: - **Algorithm**: Based on the methodology in the report series "Exploring Market Sentiment Implied in the Options Market"[69] - **Data**: As of June 27, 2025, the SKEW values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 95.51, 97.95, 93.74, and 101.14, respectively[70] - **Evaluation**: The index provides valuable insights into market expectations of extreme events and tail risks[70] Factor Backtesting Results Cinda-VIX - **SSE 50**: 17.47[61] - **CSI 300**: 16.92[61] - **CSI 500**: 23.84[61] - **CSI 1000**: 21.35[61] Cinda-SKEW - **SSE 50**: 95.51[70] - **CSI 300**: 97.95[70] - **CSI 500**: 93.74[70] - **CSI 1000**: 101.14[70]

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of risk management tools in the STAR Market is expected to accelerate with the implementation of the "1+6" policy measures by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1] Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The CSRC has issued opinions to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the STAR Market, focusing on the introduction of more STAR Market ETF options and futures options [1] - The emphasis on expanding risk management tools is a key aspect of the STAR Market reform, aimed at attracting long-term capital [1][3] Group 2: Current Financial Instruments - The launch of the STAR 50 ETF options on June 5, 2023, marked the introduction of the first on-exchange options product based on the STAR 50 Index, which includes both call and put options [2] - The STAR 50 ETF options have seen significant trading activity, with a cumulative trading volume of 153 million contracts for the Huaxia STAR 50 ETF options and 78 million contracts for the E Fund STAR 50 ETF options as of 2024 [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The introduction of STAR 50 ETF options has improved market pricing efficiency and attracted more investors, thereby enhancing the liquidity of the underlying ETF market [3] - The STAR Market has developed a multi-tiered index system, with a total of 88 STAR Market ETFs and a total scale exceeding 250 billion yuan as of mid-June 2025 [3] - There is a growing need for more derivative products to meet the risk hedging demands of various sectors, as the existing STAR 50 ETF options have limited coverage [3][4] Group 4: Recommendations for Future Products - Analysts suggest prioritizing the launch of STAR 50 index futures and options to meet institutional hedging needs, as well as considering options for STAR 100 and STAR 200 indices to cover mid-cap and small-cap tech stocks [4] - The development of industry-specific derivatives, such as semiconductor and AI ETF options, is recommended to mitigate sector volatility risks [4] - Future expansion of derivative products is expected to enhance the risk management framework of the STAR Market, attracting more market makers and institutional investors, thereby improving market liquidity and pricing efficiency [5]

Group 1 - Shanghai is accelerating the construction of international economic, financial, trade, shipping, and technological innovation centers to enhance urban core functions [1][2] - The city has implemented a "white list + differentiated qualification assessment" inspection model for first-import consumer goods, resulting in over 20,000 global and regional first-launch products being included in the whitelist since May [2] - Shanghai Free Trade Zone has established 138 innovative institutional cases, including 70 national first cases, contributing to a competitive policy and institutional framework [2][3] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume of the newly launched shipping index futures has reached 132,800 contracts, with a daily trading value of 11.465 billion [3] - By 2024, Shanghai's total foreign trade import and export volume is projected to reach 4.27 trillion yuan, with a financial market transaction growth of 8.2% [4] - Shanghai's container throughput is expected to exceed 50 million standard containers annually, with the city aiming to enhance the overall effect of the "five centers" construction [4]

股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 股指期权日报 | 2025-06-23 期权成交量 2025-06-20，上证50ETF期权成交量为101.12万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为86.40万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为175.57万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为4.31万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为93.65万张；上证50股指期权成交量为2.85万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为7.71万张；中证1000期权总成交量为22.12万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.98，环比变动为-0.18；持仓量PCR报0.92，环比变动为+0.05； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.15，环比变动为-0.02；持仓量PCR报0.84，环比变动为+0.02； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.39，环比变动为+0.20；持仓量PCR报1.01，环比变动为+0.04 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.21 ，环比变动为-0.25；持仓量PCR报0.98；环比变动为+0.00； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报1.24，环比变动为-0.09 ；持仓量P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market showed a continuous downward trend, with pharmaceutical and biological and power equipment contributing to the main decline of the CSI 300 Index, and pharmaceutical and biological and non - ferrous metals contributing to the main decline of the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index. The trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month, and the basis strengthened [4]. - For the bond futures market, the basis of bond futures fluctuated narrowly this week, some contracts experienced CTD switching affected by new bonds, the IRR generally fluctuated at a high level, and the inter - period spread mainly declined. The net value of the multi - factor timing strategy for bond futures increased this week, and the strategy signals were mostly bullish. The net value of the cross - variety arbitrage strategy for bond futures increased, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 1 - 3 - year index with reduced duration and conducts bond futures hedging [55]. - In the commodity market, last week, the domestic commodity market was affected by the conflict situation in the Middle East. Crude oil and related energy and chemical varieties mostly rose, and most commodity factors continued to rise, with the term structure factors performing the best, followed by the price - volume trend factors [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market showed a continuous downward trend, and the trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month, with the basis strengthening. Pharmaceutical and biological and power equipment contributed to the main decline of the CSI 300 Index, and pharmaceutical and biological and non - ferrous metals contributed to the main decline of the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy - The basis of stock index futures strengthened significantly. After the dividend adjustment of IC and IM, the discounts converged to 8.6% and 12.1% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for the inter - period arbitrage strategy, and short - selling hedging is recommended to hold near - month contracts to avoid the risk of further basis convergence [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the strategy net value declined significantly last week, with the annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factors losing 0.5%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor gave reverse arbitrage signals for IH, IF, and IM, and a positive arbitrage signal for IC [5]. - The net value of the cross - variety arbitrage timing strategy lost 0.1% last week. The cross - variety momentum signals performed poorly, and all portfolios were currently empty [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy models were profitable last week, with the single - factor equal - weight, OLS, and XGB models earning 0.2%, 0%, and 1.2% respectively. The bearish signals of the timing models strengthened, with the XGB model bearish on all indices, and the OLS model bullish on the SSE 50 and CSI 300 and bearish on the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 This Week's Strategy Focus - In terms of basis and inter - period spreads, the basis of bond futures fluctuated narrowly this week, some contracts experienced CTD switching affected by new bonds, the IRR generally fluctuated at a high level, and the inter - period spread mainly declined. The uncertainty of the inter - period spread increased after a short - term rebound [55]. - For the futures timing strategy, the net value of the multi - factor timing strategy increased this week, and the strategy signals were mostly bullish, with the main bullish factors being the basis factor and high - frequency factor [55]. - In the futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signal of the TS - T cross - variety arbitrage strategy was volatile, and the latest signal of the T - TL strategy was bearish [55]. - For the credit bond neutral strategy, the bond futures hedging pressure index based on far - month contracts continued to rebound, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 1 - 3 - year index with reduced duration and conducts bond futures hedging [55]. 3.3 Commodity CTA 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the domestic commodity market was affected by the conflict situation in the Middle East. Crude oil and related energy and chemical varieties mostly rose, and most commodity factors continued to rise. The term structure factors performed the best, with an average increase of over 1%, followed by the price - volume trend factors, with an average increase of over 0.5%. Only the warehouse receipt factors declined [75]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies had different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, maximum drawdown, recent weekly return, and year - to - date return. For example, the CWFT strategy had an annualized return of 10.1%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.70, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, with a recent weekly return of 0.11% and a year - to - date return of 3.76% [76].