本报北京2月27日电（记者徐佩玉）为提升资本项目开放水平，发展人民币离岸市场，完善跨境资本流 动宏观审慎管理，中国人民银行2月26日发布《关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资业务有关事宜 的通知》（以下简称《通知》），支持境内银行业金融机构与境外机构规范开展人民币跨境同业融资业 务。《通知》自发布之日起实施。 覆盖人民币跨境同业融资各类业务，引入逆周期调节机制—— 人民币跨境同业融资有新规范 引入逆周期调节机制是新规的一大亮点。《通知》明确，将境内银行人民币跨境同业融资净融出余额与 其资本水平、资金实力相挂钩，通过跨境业务调节参数、宏观审慎调节参数进行调节。参数初始值的设 置统筹兼顾了业务发展和风险防范的需要。中国人民银行将综合考虑人民币离岸市场发展、跨境资本流 动形势以及银行展业情况等因素，适时调整参数。 新规支持境内银行顺应市场需求、依法合规开展业务。《通知》指出，展业银行应具备较强的国际结算 业务能力，建立健全风险管理和内控机制，由银行总行或外国银行境内分行（境内管理行）归口管理。 中国人民银行有关负责人表示，《通知》实施后人民币跨境同业融资管理的规则性、透明度将明显提 升，有利于离岸人民币流动性供给的 ...

Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on February 27, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 269 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 269 billion yuan for the day [1] Market Liquidity - The interbank market liquidity remains stable and slightly easing, with the DR001 weighted average rate declining by 2 basis points to around 1.34%. Overnight quotes on the anonymous click system (X-repo) fell to 1.33%-1.34%, indicating ample supply [3] - Non-bank institutions needed to borrow funds for three days in advance due to a holiday, quoting around 1.55%-1.58% using credit bonds as collateral, reflecting a balanced supply and demand [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.58%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Government Bonds and Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.07%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts increased by 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.03% respectively [9] Local Government Bonds - As of February 25, the issuance of local government bonds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with several provinces planning to issue approximately 2.28 trillion yuan in bonds in the first two months of the year, representing a 22% increase compared to the same period last year [10][11] - Specific bond issuances include 449.76 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds from Fujian Province and 182.48 billion yuan in general bonds from Henan Province, with various maturities [11] Global Economic Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for early and significant interest rate cuts, suggesting a need for a 100 basis point reduction by 2026 to mitigate potential economic downturn risks [12] - A White House official indicated that executives from major tech companies will participate in a meeting to ensure that energy demands from new AI data centers do not increase electricity prices for ordinary Americans [12]

Market Overview - The US January PPI reignited inflation concerns, leading to a decline in US stocks, with the S&P 500 down 0.4% and the Dow Jones dropping over 1% [3] - Nvidia shares fell over 4% post-earnings, while Netflix surged nearly 14% [3] - Bitcoin dropped 3% for the fifth consecutive month, and Ethereum fell over 5% [3] - Gold prices rose 1.8%, nearing $5,300, marking the seventh consecutive month of gains [3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.88%, continuing a two-month upward trend [3] Key Developments in China - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China discussed the "14th Five-Year Plan" and government work report, emphasizing a proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy [4][11] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is planning key measures for high-quality development in the capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [11][12] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the forward foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0%, effective March 2 [12] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit growth of 108.81% by 2025, driven by demand for high-speed optical modules [12] - Cambrian Technology achieved its first annual profit, projecting a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan in 2025, with revenue surging 4.5 times [13] - Moore Threads anticipates a revenue increase of 243.37% in 2025, with flagship GPU production narrowing losses by 36.7% [13] - Domestic GPU production is accelerating, with Muxi Co. projecting a 121% revenue increase in 2025 and a 44% reduction in losses [14] Key Developments Overseas - The US January core PPI saw its fastest growth in a year, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [15] - OpenAI completed a $110 billion financing round, achieving a valuation of $730 billion, with Amazon investing $50 billion [6][18] - Meta has shifted from relying solely on Nvidia to renting Google TPU for AI training, indicating a diversification in supplier strategy [18] - SpaceX is considering filing for an IPO as early as March, aiming for a June listing with a target valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion [18] - The collapse of UK private credit giant MFS has raised concerns about the fragility of private credit markets, with major banks exposed to significant risks [9][20]

白宫与沃什的"联姻"看似矛盾，实则是政治现实与策略妥协的产物。 图片来源：新华社 沃什的政策转向是最关键的催化剂。这位曾因反对量化宽松而辞职的"偏鹰派"，在2024年后完成了明显的立场转变。当前，沃什明确支持进一 步降息，主张将联邦基金目标利率降至3%左右的"中性水平"。公允地说，沃什的"缩表+降息"框架具有一定的内在一致性，他反对的从来不是 降低利率本身，而是通过扩张资产负债表来实现宽松。在美国通胀已经回落的背景下，主张更快降息与反对QE之间并不存在必然矛盾。但转 变的时间点仍然耐人寻味，恰好落在美国大选结果揭晓之后，而且考虑到沃什曾有竞争美联储主席的经历（2017年其曾为接替耶伦的热门人 选，但最终因为其鹰派立场和资历尚浅，败给鲍威尔）。 白宫的持续施压提供了外部推力。自2025年1月达沃斯论坛开始，白宫多次公开要求"立即降息"，甚至一度威胁撤换现任美联储主席鲍威尔。 筛选继任者的核心条件就是"愿意降息"，这为沃什的华丽转身指明了方向。 来源：21世纪经济报道 特约评论员 顾经纬 白宫多次要求大幅降息，却提名了曾因反对量化宽松而辞职的凯文·沃什出任美联储主席。一个极力施压降息的行政当局，与一位"偏鹰派"色 ...

促进外汇政策回归中性 远期售汇业务外汇风险准备金率下调为0 ◎记者 张琼斯 "这意味着有60%的企业在外贸出口上，受到汇率风险的影响较小。未来，这两个比例有望进一步提 高，也有利于保持汇率稳定。"权威专家表示。 权威专家表示，未来一段时期，外部形势复杂多变，人民币汇率走势仍存在较大不确定性，外贸企业应 做好汇率套保。当前国际环境复杂多变，地缘政治冲突增多，都可能加剧全球外汇市场波动，并对人民 币汇率走势形成扰动。 "未来，随着市场在汇率形成中发挥更大作用，人民币汇率可能有升有贬、双向浮动。"权威专家表示， 企业和金融机构不宜盲目跟风、赌汇率走势，要坚持汇率风险中性理念，做好汇率风险管理。 央行称，下一步，将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的 基本稳定。 2026年以来，在美元偏弱、结汇需求增加等因素驱动下，人民币对美元持续升值。 权威专家认为，本次下调可以降低企业远期购汇成本，提高企业在购汇方向开展外汇套保的积极性，也 有利于支持企业合理运用外汇衍生产品管理好汇率风险。 "本次下调有利于支持企业更好开展汇率避险。"权威专家表示，通过本次下调，金融机构可以为企业提 供成本合 ...

Group 1: US Housing Market - The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US fell to 5.98% as of February 26, down from 6.01% the previous week and significantly lower than 6.76% a year ago. This decline is primarily attributed to the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield. However, economists believe this decrease is insufficient to materially stimulate housing demand [1] - The current decline in mortgage rates is seen as a result of market volatility rather than strong economic fundamentals, raising questions about its sustainability. Analysts emphasize that the shortage of housing inventory remains a core constraint on market recovery, indicating that merely lowering rates will not drive demand unless supply improves [1] - Despite the lower rates, there has been a noticeable increase in mortgage refinancing activity [1] Group 2: UK Government Bonds - UK government bond prices have risen due to market expectations that the Office for Budget Responsibility will announce a reduction in bond issuance for the current fiscal year and further cuts in the 2027 fiscal year. Analysts suggest that strong tax revenues early in the year may lead to a downward revision of bond issuance expectations [2] Group 3: Japan Inflation - In February, Tokyo's core consumer prices, excluding fresh food, rose by 1.8% year-on-year, slightly above economists' median forecast of 1.7%. The inflation rate is cooling as the impact of government measures to lower utility bills becomes evident and food cost increases slow down [2] Group 4: South Korea Exports - South Korea's exports are expected to grow for the ninth consecutive month in February, driven by a surge in chip demand amid a global AI investment boom. Analysts predict a 24.0% year-on-year increase in exports, with semiconductor prices rising faster than expected and low inventory levels supporting strong export momentum [2] - There is a high likelihood that semiconductor export growth will exceed 100% in the first half of the year [2] Group 5: Singapore Trade Performance - Singapore's manufacturing and trade performance may be adversely affected by uncertainties in US trade policy by 2026. Potential trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts among major economies could raise production costs and exacerbate global economic policy uncertainty, ultimately dampening global investment flows and trade activities [2]

Group 1: U.S. Federal Debt and Budget Deficit - The U.S. federal government debt has reached $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, surpassing the total military spending [1] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in FY 2026, accounting for 5.8% of GDP, with public debt projected to exceed 101% of GDP by 2026 and 120% by 2036 [3] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the growing federal budget deficit poses an increasing stability risk, with annual deficits potentially reaching $3 trillion in the next decade under current policies [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, and interest rates directly impact the government's interest payment obligations [4] - President Trump has called for interest rate cuts to reduce borrowing costs, claiming that a 1% reduction could save nearly $400 billion in annual interest payments [4] - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, has only implemented limited rate cuts, citing inflation and employment data as key factors [4] Group 3: Global Investor Sentiment and Debt Holdings - Global investors are shifting their stance on U.S. Treasury bonds, with a reported reduction of $884 billion in holdings, marking a break from previous net inflow trends [6] - Major foreign holders, including Japan, the UK, and China, have simultaneously reduced their U.S. debt holdings, with China decreasing its holdings by 47% since its peak in 2013 [6] - Central banks are increasingly moving assets from U.S. debt to gold, with global official gold reserves surpassing $3.93 trillion, becoming the largest reserve asset [6] Group 4: Currency and Trade Dynamics - Several countries are advancing the use of local currencies in international trade, with Indonesia planning to initiate transactions centered around the Chinese yuan [8] - The dollar's dominance in global foreign exchange reserves has declined, falling below 60% for ten consecutive quarters, while gold's share has risen to 20% [9] - The U.S. government has responded to these trends with threats of tariffs against countries that seek to replace the dollar in trade [8] Group 5: Future Projections and Economic Concerns - The Federal Reserve's net interest expenses are projected to exceed $1 trillion in FY 2026, rising to over $2.1 trillion by 2036, which will account for a significant portion of federal spending [11] - The IMF has warned that U.S. debt could reach 140% of GDP within five years if current fiscal policies continue, urging the government to reduce budget deficits [11] - The U.S. national debt has increased by $2.25 trillion over the past year, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [11]

（原标题：巴西央行下调通胀指标至3.97%） 2月9日，巴西央行发布《焦点公告》，对全国广义消费者价格指数（IPCA），即巴西官方通胀指 标在2026年年底的预测值从3.99%下调至3.97%。对于2027年，通胀预测维持在3.8%不变；2028年和 2029年的预期均为3.5%。这是连续第五周下调2026年的通胀预期，目前该预测处于央行通胀目标区间 之内。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant recovery in Shanghai's second-hand housing market, with transaction volumes exceeding 20,000 units for three consecutive months, specifically reaching 20,300 units in January 2026, a year-on-year increase of 26.69% [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (Shanghai headquarters) reported that household loans increased by over 33.3 billion yuan in January, with short-term loans rising by 1.75 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 31.575 billion yuan, indicating a rebound in residential mortgage demand [1][3] - The new housing policy "Shanghai Seven Measures" implemented on February 26 has led to a noticeable increase in bank mortgage inquiries, with banks reporting a significant uptick in consultations regarding loan policies and eligibility [1][2] Group 2 - Real estate agents noted a broader potential buyer demographic, with increased activity from clients who were previously hesitant, including those holding Shanghai residence permits without social security and young non-local residents with social security [2] - The new policy has prompted mixed reactions among homeowners, with some accelerating the listing of properties while others are raising prices or delaying sales, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [2] - Industry experts believe that the implementation of the new policy will further stimulate housing consumption demand and balance supply and demand, reinforcing the current positive trend in the housing market [3]

【导读】公募基金规模达到37.77万亿元，再创历史新高 在春季躁动行情、增量资金涌入等多重因素共同作用下，公募基金规模再创历史新高。 2月27日，中国基金业协会发布的最新一期公募基金市场数据显示，截至今年1月底，公募基金总规模达到37.77万亿元，连续10个月创新高。 从各类型公募基金规模变化上看，混合、货币及其他基金是推动公募基金规模增长的主力军，上述类型基金规模均实现千亿元级增长。从环比变化看，基 金中基金（FOF）份额环比大增15.05%，位居各类型基金榜首，其他基金也迎来11.06%的环比净申购。 公募基金规模连续10个月创历史新高 中国基金业协会最新披露的数据显示，截至2026年1月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共165家，其中基金管理公司150家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构 15家。以上机构管理的公募基金资产净值合计37.77万亿元。 | 类别 | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (2026/1/31) | (2026/1/3 ...