交易中，最让我们后悔的不是错失机会，而是看到机会没有抓住，看到风险没有规避。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250722— 股商双打债市（-股市和商品表现强势-债基继续赎回+资金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展2148亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3425亿元逆回购和1200亿元国库现金定存到期， 净回笼2477亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率延续回落，DR001在1.31%附近，DR007在1.47%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.07.22) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 量高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 (亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.36 | | | 1.75 | -47 | 72339. 36 | 2699.90 | 89.92 | | R00 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices may peak at $10,050 per ton by the end of 2025, with an average price adjustment to $9,890 for the second half of 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% chance of recession in the U.S. due to tariff-induced stagflation, lowering the GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3% [2] - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in global demand for long-term assets, predicting 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to be 3.50% and 4.35% respectively by year-end [3] Group 2 - Barclays indicates mild selling pressure on the dollar by the end of June, while the euro shows weak signals for a significant rebound [4] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace, with potential announcements in September [5] - Bank of America states that since the announcement of tariffs, interest rate differentials are no longer the main driver of the dollar's movement, reflecting structural risks in the U.S. economy [6] Group 3 - French Foreign Trade Bank's survey shows that 41% of respondents view currency depreciation as the main risk of holding cash, with 38% preferring better returns elsewhere [7] - Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates in July, but emphasizes that this is not a certainty [8] - China International Capital Corporation notes potential recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a beta opportunity of 30%-50% if expectations improve [5][6]

Group 1 - Vietnam faces a critical deadline on July 9, 2025, where failure to reach an agreement with the U.S. could result in a 46% tariff on key exports such as textiles and electronics [1] - The negotiations are influenced by U.S. efforts to disrupt Chinese supply chains, compelling Vietnam to sign agreements that would reduce tariffs to 20%-25% in exchange for blocking Chinese transshipment [1][3] - In 2024, 12% of Vietnam's $123.5 billion trade surplus with the U.S. was derived from goods that were transshipped from China, indicating a significant reliance on this trade route [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has implemented strict measures, including requiring Vietnam's customs system to connect to the U.S. traceability database, which tracks sensitive goods from raw materials to finished products [3] - Vietnam has imposed anti-dumping duties of 19.38%-27.83% on Chinese steel, effectively severing the transshipment channel [3] - New regulations require that at least 55% of the value of products must be added locally in Vietnam to qualify for lower tariffs, posing challenges for manufacturers who primarily rely on Chinese components [3][5] Group 3 - Vietnam is attempting to balance its economic ties with China while enhancing its relationship with the U.S., a strategy referred to as "bamboo diplomacy" [5] - Following the signing of agreements, the U.S. unexpectedly raised tariffs on Vietnamese steel to 50%, leading to significant order cancellations for local aluminum companies [5] - The textile industry in Vietnam is heavily dependent on Chinese materials, with 60% of fabrics sourced from China, making it difficult to comply with new regulations [5] Group 4 - Chinese companies are adapting by establishing production facilities in Vietnam while retaining core technology in China, indicating a shift in the supply chain dynamics [7] - The construction of the China-Laos railway and the development of the Lancang-Mekong economic belt are efforts to bypass U.S. maritime blockades [8] - Southeast Asian countries are responding to U.S. pressures by tightening customs regulations, impacting companies like Apple, which plans to relocate a significant portion of its production out of Vietnam [8] Group 5 - The overall impact of these trade tensions is detrimental to all parties involved, with Vietnamese manufacturers struggling to maintain profitability under the new tariff regime [10] - U.S. companies, including Nike and Apple, are warning that increased costs will ultimately be borne by American consumers [10] - The complexities of global supply chains mean that tariffs may not effectively block goods, as companies find ways to navigate through technology and market strategies [12]